Prediction: New Economic Axis of Power and The Grand Chessboard

I came across this very interesting report about #Germany’s push for a “special relationship” with #China (see video at the bottom of post). I think it illustrates clearly where the wind blows. Today, Germany’s trade with China already amounts to a whooping 145 bln euros, which makes China Germany’s #3 trading partner. Especially popular in China are Germany’s luxury vehicles, like Porsche, as well as other high-tech products based on superb German engineering.

In all this flirting of Germany with China, the rest of the #EU is threatened to be left behind as EU’s dominant and most vibrant #economy looks into the future, while others have to deal with the imposed austerity.

MY ANALYSIS:

There has been a clear pivot to the East in German economic policy — from the Nord Stream joint venture with #Russia to the new Chinese deals… even if politically Germany still seems to be in the opposing camp. Germany’s long-term goal is to divorce itself from the Cross-Atlantic political/military alliance with #USA and #UK. To be sure, there are other European countries that wouldn’t mind changing their pivot somewhat as well.

However, Germany has to tread softly and change its pivot extremely slowly and gradually due to these factors: 1. Many conflicting points of view withing Germany itself; 2. #NATO obligations; 3. Germany’s checkered war past, which still looms over it and ties its hands; 4. US holding the majority of #GermanGold and possibly blackmailing Germany with it. Details are scarce, but we know for sure that Germans still can’t get their gold out of the US and are being given a run around; 4. Not to mention sensitive Western political issues with China and Russia, to name a few.

MY PREDICTION:

The German trend of changing pivot to the East and slowly shifting trade priority towards cooperation with China, as well as Russia, will continue intensifying during this decade. This is the newly forming EURASIAN economic axis of power with Russia as the bridge between the two: Germany – Russia – China, with the possibility of other countries participating. Notice that each of the 3 economies in question compliment each other extremely well: Germany’s technology, science and high-end merchandise, Russian natural resources, energy (both conventional and budding alternative), agricultural potential, space exploration, military technology and science; China’s huge manufacturing capacity and human potential. Each country is a natural market for each other’s goods and services.

It is interesting to note that this informal, but potentially very powerful block is only one of several up-and-coming superblocks Russia and China both participate in. Another one is of course the #BRICS. Also worth mentioning is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (#SCO), uniting various Eurasian countries: Russia, China, #Kazakhstan and several Central Asian nations. #India, #Pakistan, #Afghanistan and #Iran are standing in line to join.

“He who controls Eurasia, controls the world.” The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski, US National Security Advisor 1977-81. What can I say, the good old Ziggy was right. Except the above-mentioned organizations are based on the new model: they are about cooperation, not control.

Meanwhile, the failed US foreign policy of the last several decades has been based on Zbigniew Brzezinski’s Grand Chessboard Eurasia control theory, including: systematic encircling of Russia and China with military bases; creating Colored Revolutions in Central Asia and Caucasus; taking over countries like Afghanistan, Iraq and attempting to attack Iran; stimulating Muslim extremism to create instability in what is called the “soft underbelly of Russia” as well as in Chinese provinces.

Too bad for the US, most chess world champions are Russian…

The world is changing very fast in front of our very eyes and in ten years time we won’t recognize it. I expect to post more of my geopolitical analysis both here and on Lada Ray Youtube Channel soon. Stay tuned!

Pivotal Axis: Germany may gain special access to China’s markets