What is Really Happening in Ukraine? Part 2: Predictions
From the author: Note, this ongoing series about the real situation in Ukraine is written for the open-minded and independently thinking people, as well as for those who see through hypocrisy and who seek the truth. Lada Ray
Russia’s role in Ukraine
So, the billion dollar question is: what is Russia’s role in all this? Russia has been extremely, and surprisingly to some, quiet and restrained on the Ukraine issue. Russia had stressed a few times that EU and US interference is unacceptable. Putin also remarked that joining the EU association agreement is Ukraine’s sovereign decision that has nothing to do with Russia. Compare that with constant interferences by the EU and US in internal affairs of sovereign Ukraine.
Russia also said firmly that should Ukraine sign a free trade agreement with the EU, Russia would cancel its own free trade deal with Ukraine to protect its industry. The moment it has been said, the howling that Russia is putting pressure on poor, defenceless Ukraine, from both sides of the Atlantic became so deafening as if Russia just invaded USA and EU combined.
This from the same countries that continue sending their politicians and officials to Kiev barricades in order to encourage rioters to continue fighting the legitimately elected government of Ukraine. This from the same governments that finance the whole Kiev operation. High level officials and ambassadors to Ukraine from both EU and US visited euromaidan. The latest of them was Assistant US Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, who gave a speech to the rioters to keep fighting against Yanukovich.
Historic and cultural setup
We have to understand that on one hand, Russians consider Ukrainians the same nation, or at least their closest brothers and sisters. On the other hand, Ukraine is within the immediate sphere of Russian influence. Not only Russia is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, but also half or more Ukrainians speak Russian as their first language, Ukrainians watch the same Russian TV shows and movies, read same books, have similar lifestyles and much more. Historic Russian Fleet Black Sea base is in Sevastopol, Crimea. Therefore, Russia regards open interference by the West in Ukraine as systemic threat.
Ukraine is the essential part of the Russian Civilization and as such, Russia can’t be okay with what’s happening under her nose. The goal of the US is for Ukraine to join NATO – and trust me, this whole association with the EU spectacle is for that purpose. Ukraine will never be accepted into the EU, but it will be immediately dragged into NATO. Look at Turkey. They’ve been knocking on the EU door for 50 years, meanwhile, they didn’t have to wait at all to be accepted into NATO! Why? Because during Soviet times, NATO needed valuable bases on Turkish territory, pointing rockets at the USSR located on the other side of the Black Sea. I grew up in Odessa, right across from Turkey, and I know this first hand…
The moment Ukraine gives in and signs this worthless slavery EU association agreement, they will be dragged into NATO. NATO bases on Ukrainian soil will follow – basically in Russian backyard. Russia will never allow that to happen. US is obviously playing with fire they will never be able to control once it gets out of hand. And those in power in this country (Kerry, Obama, Nuland and others) are clearly leading US and the world to a massive super-power confrontation! We should all ask ourselves this question: why is this being done, and is this shear stupidity or is this done with full knowledge of consequences? Is World War III being orchestrated by the US on purpose? Why do I single out the US? Because, as Victoria Nuland so aptly put in that leaked phone call, f*** EU – as EU are just convenient stooges. (Full video of leaked Nuland conversation – scroll down to vid.)
Connection to Sochi Olympics and Geopolitics
So, why is Russia so quiet? Why such complacency?
Nikolay Starikov, whom I respect very much, believes that present ‘euromaidan’ was being carefully prepared for Ukraine’s presidential elections in 2015, however, the schedule was moved up due to Yanukovich’s refusal to sign the slavery agreement with the EU. I agree with a lot of what Starikov says about Ukraine and geopolitics in general. This is one of the points where I differ with him. I do agree that mayhem is again being prepared for the 2015 Ukrainian elections, however, I am also convinced that present events were meant to unfold the way they are unfolding. (See links to Nikolay Starikov’s articles at the bottom of post.)
I believe this mayhem was meant to be executed right before the #Sochi2014 Winter Olympics. For some reason it escaped the analysts that the EU association agreement, seriously damaging relationship and trade between Russia and Ukraine, was scheduled to be signed shortly before the #SochiOlympics, which led to Russia’s announcement that should Ukraine sign such agreement, Russia would cancel its free trade agreement with Ukraine. Clearly, when a country is fully immersed in preparations for the Olympics, which is a gigantic and very involved project, the EU/Ukraine association agreement happening at the most crucial for Olympic preparation time is akin to a knife in Russia’s back. And that’s precisely why it was timed like this.
Russia already had a strikingly similar situation during 1980 #MoscowOlympics. In a nutshell, here’s what happened: by the United States’ own admission, some time before the 1980 Moscow Olympics, US trained and financed Afghan and other terrorists, namely Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda, as well as the Taliban, to fight against LEGITIMATE government in Afghanistan that was leaning towards socialism, in the hopes USSR would take the bait. USSR had an agreement with Afghan government according to which they came to their military aid in a crisis situation. Soviet Afghanistan invasion happened very conveniently several months before Moscow Olympics, which allowed US to organize the boycott of Moscow Olympics together with its allies.
I knew several international athletes who told me about their shocking experiences: teams from UK, Italy and other Western countries that came to Moscow despite boycott, weren’t allowed to carry their countries’ flags. Instead they had to compete under Olympic flag. The Olympic medalists from the West had never received the honor they deserved in their respective countries, and they were denied the right to dedicate their victories to their motherland; when they stood on the podium, the flag raised was the Olympic flag, and the anthem played in honor of their victory was the Olympic anthem. US athletes that had decided to participate had to sneak in and out of their country like thieves. 1980 boycott was meant as a slap in the face for Russia. But as usual, in this constant dirty geopolitical game it is the ordinary people who suffer most.
Therefore, it is crucial to understand that it never mattered whether Russia was communist or capitalist, or anything in between. The only thing that always mattered was that it was branded as geopolitical arch-rival.
Want to talk about double standard and hypocrisy? We all know that in recent years US with its allies invaded Afghanistan and Iraq under false pretense. Millions of people were killed and displaced as a result, countries destroyed, regime changes executed in both, without anyone sanctioning or boycotting US or its allies. Check out the 2010 Winter Olympics in Canada and 2012 Summer Olympics in London, UK – despite both UK and Canada being integral part of the US invasion of Afghanistan & Iraq, plus US closest allies, there was – predictably – zero talk of the boycott of either games!
Fast forward to 2014. It was several months before Sochi Games, and they couldn’t find anything, except the gay issue, to build the boycott on, nor anything meaningful to base Russia-bashing on. A real problem, you know! And lo and behold, here comes super-opportunity! Should Yanukovich sign the EU agreement, they were hoping Russians would snap and do something stupid, thus triggering Sochi boycott. At the very least, they wanted to distract and broadside Russia before the Olympics. Neither happened.
But since Yanukovich didn’t sign the EU paper – Plan B it is! Plan B was ‘euromaidan’ and violent removal of Yanukovich, while Russia couldn’t do anything so not to trigger second Olympic boycott and disrupt the Olympics in which they invested so much.
But the US got problems: 1. Russians never lost their cool and calmly proceeded with the Olympics. 2. Through this whole ordeal, Yanukovich has been acting smarter than they expected.
Their creativity is so dismal that in present day Ukraine they are attempting the same old, tired Afghan circa 1980 scenario, albeit, much closer to Russia’s home. I can’t even imagine the amount of pressure Russia and its leadership had and still have to endure in order to go through with the Sochi Games and to stay cool when US, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Sweden, Romania and EU as a whole have been literally poking at Russia with hot irons.
The thing is, Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev, and the entire present Russian leadership is way too smart to allow themselves to be dragged into an open conflict as it happened with Brezhnev during Moscow Olympics.
Some of my readers know that in the past I have absolutely accurately (to minor details and percentage points) predicted results of elections in Russia, USA, France and Germany. See past predictions. I will now attempt to predict the future of Ukraine in this absolutely unpredictable situation.
1. It’s important to understand, that there is a new paradigm: today’s Russian leadership is too smart to get themselves dragged into a full-fledged war. They have lots of diplomatic and other quiet means of dealing with this, and they will use those means. The leaked Nuland conversation where she was openly plotting who would be in the next Ukrainian govt and cursing EU, was one such example. This is a diplomatic equivalent of a black eye for Washington + an excellent way to discredit them in the eyes of the EU and Ukrainians.
Prediction 1: Russia will get involved more closely with Ukraine after Sochi Olympics are over. They’ll probably wait some time after the Olympics, if they can, before taking decisive steps. That’s why this revolt in Ukraine was timed precisely a couple of months before Sochi Olympics. It was done with full knowledge of what was at stake. Because Russia’s involvement on any level would have triggered calls for the Sochi Olympics boycott, it was pretty much clear that Russia wouldn’t respond. That’s why riots in Ukraine are intensifying again now; they have to hurry and try to unseat Yanukovich while the Olympics are still in progress and Russia’s hands are tied. Because once they are over, Russia will be able to respond accordingly.
As said above, Russia has many peaceful and quiet means at her disposal and Russians will make sure they use all those means. Considering Putin and Lavrov can literally run circles around Obama and Kerry, the chess game is likely to end in Russia’s favor. Remember Syria checkmate?
This doesn’t mean of course that if the US and EU lose their minds altogether and make it impossible for Russia to exist peacefully, Russia won’t respond in like. But this is an absolute worst scenario, which we should all hope never happens and which I see Russia being able to avoid at this time.
2. The biggest sticky point is that for a variety of reasons, no one wants to split up Ukraine, despite huge differences between its east and west. Russia, because they consider all Ukrainians a part of their nation and culture – in other words, brothers and sisters, believing, perhaps naively, that some of them have simply been duped and that they would eventually wake up from this spell; Washington and EU for different reasons, which are very far from sentimental of course – the main reason being greed. The majority of Ukrainians are against the split as well.
This is the kind of situation that will be extremely difficult, or even impossible to resolve within our lifetime, as at the same time many Ukrainians, as well as Russians and Belorussians, look at Western Ukrainians with huge distrust and suspicion – and for a very good reason. All you have to do is look at what they’ve done to Kiev.
There is an opinion expressed by Russian/Ukrainian political analyst Anatoly Vasserman and favored by a number of Ukrainian people (who are sick of Western Ukraine Nazis) that Western Ukraine should be split from the rest of Ukraine and that it should join Poland or whatever country that will have them in Europe, if any. Western Ukraine by the way has many unresolved historical issues with Poland, so if that ever happens, it won’t be a happy marriage. However, as mentioned before, so far, there is no real force available now that would support Vasserman’s proposal. Interestingly enough, EU and US don’t want this scenario either as they want the entire Ukraine.
Another possibility favored by some, both inside and outside Ukraine, is that Ukraine splits in two parts with South and East joining Russia and West and North becoming a reduced Ukraine.
The problem is that Ukraine had never been a successful independent state, exception being the ancient Kievan Rus, and that was a Rus state, when there was no such ethnicity as ‘Ukrainians.’ Other than that, Ukraine was under Polish and Austro-Hungarian occupations, and for the past 350 years, until the breakup, it was a willing part of the Russian Empire and USSR. Ukraine has no history or capacity to live independently, therefore, perhaps this is the reason the country always wants to join something. If it’s not Russia, than the EU. A reduced Ukraine, without its manufacturing, ports and natural resources will be even less viable as a state. EU doesn’t need such small and poor country. They want the whole thing as a new market for their goods, and as a source of cheap, yet educated, labor force.
Russia will have a huge problem next to its borders if Northern and Western Ukraine can’t feed themselves. There may be a massive illegal immigration/refugee crisis. Russia is already suffocating from all the immigration from the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. Besides, Russian natural gas pipelines to Europe go through most of Ukraine. Dividing Ukraine would introduce additional element of uncertainty into the trade. Pipelines, for instance, could be held hostage by the Western Ukraine Nazis in case the situation got out of hand.
Finally, In Russian society, there is a split over Ukraine. Despite cultural closeness, quite a few Russians are actually not sure if they want to deal with Ukraine on any level, considering it a burden based on the state of Ukraine’s economy, social unrest and nationalism/nazism problems. For the same reasons, many ordinary EU citizens are against closer ties with Ukraine. Despite that, EU politicians keep pushing their agenda of Ukraine joining NATO and EU.
Prediction 2: Based on all the above, I do not see Ukraine being split up any time soon. However, the tensions between East and West are such that I don’t see real peace in Ukraine for a long time either. I don’t envy Yanukovich – he really is between the rock and the hard place.
Prediction 3: Ukraine will never join the EU. Instead, Ukraine will eventually join the Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This may happen any time between 2016 and 2018. Probably sooner rather than later.
Note: the Customs Union consists today of 3 countries. Recently, India and Turkey have expressed desire to join. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan may become members very soon. Even Israel is looking for ways to join. Eventually, there will be more countries on board.
Breaking news: after much posturing and threats, US and EU have imposed sanctions on Ukraine.
Meanwhile: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev just announced that Russia stands by its promise to work with Ukraine and give it loans as agreed ($15bln in total loans), however, Russia needs to know that Yanukovich is fulfilling his duty to protect his citizens against violence. Basically, it’s a nudge for Yanukovich to start acting, and not just sit idle, waiting. Basically, Medvedev is asking Yanukovich to choose between Russia and EU without delay. So, perhaps tentatively, timidly, but Yanukovich has finally started acting.
Yanukovich appears still trying to sit on two chairs at once. He can’t have both: EU and Russia. He’s been told so much by both sides. It’s high time he got off his ass and started doing the right thing!
2/22, 4am EST. Breaking news: wow, things are really speeding up in Ukraine. An uneasy truce seems to have been brokered. Yanukovich had to make major concessions, including changing the constitution, reducing his powers, letting Yulia Tymoshenko out of jail and calling early elections. Meanwhile, the “right sector,” or Banderovtsi/Nazis are saying they don’t care about any deals and if Yanukovich doesn’t resign by 10 am on Saturday, they will storm Rada (the parliament) with deadly weapons these peaceful demonstrators possess in abundance.
It’s possible that a behind-the-closed-doors deal may have been reached between Russia and Europe. How was it reached and what’s in store? Also, what is US role in the new developments? Part 3, with additional analysis and predictions is here. In it, I address the new ideas based on the quickly changing situation in Ukraine.
P.S. My deepest condolences to all victims of violence in Ukraine and to their families.
Sources and Links:
Articles by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Father of Reaganomics, Assistant Treasury Secretary under Reagan, former Wall Street Journal Editor:
More articles about Ukraine on Dr. Roberts’ site: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/
Author, #geopolitics #economics analyst, William #Engdahl: http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/
Boiling Frogs Blog: http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2014/01/07/us-ngo-uncovered-in-ukraine-protests/
Articles by bestselling Russian geopolitical author, Nikolay Starikov:
Videos by RT:
In Lvov (Western Ukraine) over 1000 police guns have been stolen Из райотделов милиции Львова похищено более 1000 стволов
Snipers are shooting at Berkut (at special police units) По Беркуту стреляют снайперы
Против радикалов объединились Крым, Луганск, Одесса и Донецк – Against radicals have united Crimea, Lugansk, Odessa and Donbass.
Anatoly Vasserman about Ukraine: Анатолий Вассерман – Говорит Москва 19 02 2014
Kiev hospitals beyond capacity, can’t help all wounded Киевские больницы не справляются с потоком пострадавших
Who is in charge of the Kiev War? Кто командует уличной войной в Киеве
Posted on February 21, 2014, in Geopolitical Trends, Predictions 2014 & Long-Term, Russia, Ukraine and tagged Bandera, banderovtsi, Customs Union, Donbass, Dr Paul Craig Roberts, EU, events in Ukraine, Geopolitical Trends, geopolitics, imperialism, Kerry, Kiev, Klichko, Leaked conversation by Victoria Nuland, leaked f*** EU comment by Nuland, Merkel, NATO, neocon, neocon policies, NGOs, Nikolay Starikov, Obama, Odessa, prediction by Lada Ray, Predictions 2014 and Beyond and tagged analysis of events in Ukraine, predictions about Ukraine, presidential elections in Ukraine, riots in Kiev, riots in Ukraine, RT, Russia, Russia Today, Ukraine, US and EU interference in Ukraine, US plotting regime change in Ukraine, USA, Victoria Nuland, Western Ukraine, William Engdahl, Yanukovich, Yanukovich impeachment, Yatseniuk, Yulia Tymoshenko. Bookmark the permalink. 12 Comments.