Russia’s Sanctions: Who Wins, Who Loses?
Below is the new breaking info, to supplement the comprehensive info, analysis and predictions I provided in Predictions: Russia Hits West With Return Sanctions.
Russia finalized the list of products and countries banned for import into Russia.
I warned many times that the attempts by the EU to impose sanctions on Russia will backfire on the EU, and will be a long-term positive for Russia. My predictions are playing out now.
Canada, US, Australia, UK foods/agriculture/raw material imports are banned.
There is a full ban on agricultural/food products from all EU countries and Norway. The ban includes meats, fish, milk products, fruits and vegetables – in short, just about everything. Russia is a huge market for the EU. Annual agriculture/food imports from the EU to Russia total 12bln euros. Total trade between Russia and EU is about $500bln per annum. By contrast, Russia’s trade with the US is only $26bln.
Russia banned all agricultural produce from Belgium – Belgium food exports to Russia total over 400 mln euro per year. All agriculture from Poland is banned. Romania, Italy, Greece, France, Holland, and pretty much every EU country, is affected.
This would have been funny, if it wasn’t that sad! Lithuanian government asks the EU to compensate it for losses associated with Russian sanctions and says that “EU must meet the threat together, as a unified front.” THE THREAT? Let me get this straight: Lithuania had no problem jumping on the bandwagon of the EU/US sanctions against Russia; no problem with EU/US threatening and lying about Russia. Lithuanian mercenaries are a large and integral part of the Kiev junta invasion into Donbass. They play a big role in the bombings of the peaceful population, and bear part of the responsibility for the destruction of the once florishing Lugansk and Donetsk. But when they have to pay the piper for their actions – all of sudden they remember that they are threatened?! Lithuanian agricultural exports into Russia, now banned, were a substantial part of Lithuanian economy.
Finland, another (formerly) large exporter of foods into Russia, admits that it will be very difficult to replace the lucrative Russian market. Russian market accounted for 1/4 of Finland’s entire agricultural/food export!
German Association of Wholesalers and Exporters says that it is worried that the loss of the Russian market, with its large capacity, poses a threat to German economy. This loss affects not only agricultural producers, but also the shipping industry and transportation operators.
At the same time, Russia is to dramatically increase imports from Chile – mainly meat, wine and milk/cheese products. Turkey’s supplies of fruits and vegetables are to increase dramatically as well. Belarus delegation is now in Russia discussing a substantial increase in Belarus food/agri imports. It appears, Kazakhstan is also gearing for the increase of its imports into Russia. Generally, this situation is expected to be a stellar opportunity for certain countries that have been anxious to increase their share in the Russian market, but were being squeezed out of it by the fierce competition. Lines are forming and the race is on. Interviewing candidates… 😉
Russia has also announced measures to boost domestic agricultural output, and as I said in the previous piece, the ban of the European agri products is superb news for Russian farmers and food manufacturers, who were at a huge disadvantage in their own country due to competition from the EU, as a result of the imbalanced policies and proliferation of oligarchs in the 1990s. In short, as I warned and predicted previously, and as discussed in Predictions: Russia Hits West With Return Sanctions, the anti-Russian sanctions by the West will turn into a problem for the EU, and will be a HUGE long-term positive for Russia.
The turn of events is such that these will also become a long-term positive for other countries that were at a huge competitive disadvantage compared to the EU/US producers. This is awesome news as well, as it will help restore the overall balance and justice in the world – something, as my readers know, I often love to talk about. Read more about the current global imbalance and Russia’s universal karmic role in PREDICTIONS.
The ban will be for the term of one year, with possible changes and/or extensions; new products may be added. Such long-term ban means that many of the countries that lose the large and lucrative Russian market, won’t be able to get back in as their place will be taken by someone else.
NEW PREDICTIONS: There is another huge positive for Russia: having invested properly into her own agriculture (and this is finally happening due to sanctions), Russia will eventually regain its place as the world’s bread basket. Turn of the 20th century Russian Empire was called the “bread basket of Europe.” Russian agriculture, albeit damaged after the 1990s disasters, can now rise again. Russia is capable of feeding a large part of the planet with her clean, non-GMO foods. Some of the EU agricultural products, having lost their competitive advantage, will be eventually squeezed out and replaced by Russian products. I say nothing about the US, as it isn’t in the running.
In my prior articles and predictions, I discussed the trend of Russia having to take reluctant measures in response to the US/EU behavior, with these measures morphing into a long-term boon for the country. This is the long-term trend I continue forecasting. In fact, it will intensify. EU shouldn’t have poked Russia (of which I’ve also repeatedly warned). Never a good idea and always ends the same way.
Russia’s PM, Dmitry Medvedev, announced that the government will crack down on any attempt to speculate on banned goods, or to create a black market for banned goods. He has also announced that sanctions exclude baby products.
Russia is gearing for the ban on EU and US commercial flights across Russia. See article link below for specific flight time and financial loss numbers associated with such ban. Ukraine is already banned from using Russian airspace. Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russia may change rules of foreign usage of the TransSiberian routes, including tariffs and routes. He also pointed out that closer to winter, Russia may announce additional sanctions.
This article should be read in conjunction with: Predictions: Russia Hits West With Return Sanctions.
P.S. I have to warn that the US won’t give up despite the losing position they are in (or maybe precisely because they are in this losing position). More crazy pressure on Russia and EU should be expected. Of course, in the final analysis, this will only expedite the collapse of the US empire, but they don’t seem to be too concerned about it. Follow the link above to read more about that. Also, see my other previous articles and Predictions.
Posted on August 7, 2014, in Economy & Investment, Empire Collapse, Geopolitical Trends, Predictions 2014 & Long-Term, Russia and tagged Canada, Dmitry Medvedev, EU, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia's sanctions: who wins who loses, Russian agricultural import ban, Russian sanctions, US empire collapse. Bookmark the permalink. 8 Comments.