Lots of News! Russia Imposes Sanctions on Turkey; China Sends Carrier to Syria; Putin in Paris
As we’ve discussed in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 in Syria, there is hell for Turkey to pay for the downing of the Russian jet. NATO, EU and even US have been trying very hard to distance themselves from Turkey, insisting it’s all between Russia and the ‘unpredictable’ Erdogan.
As predicted in the same article, neither NATO nor EU would move a muscle to protect Turkey. In fact, various Western politicians and generals are floating an opinion that Turkey should be expelled from NATO.
I can tell you this won’t happen. It’s certainly not realistic for as long as NATO exists in its current state. US and NATO have too many bases in Turkey and they won’t just abandon this primest of the prime spot, allowing them to meddle with Russia. Considering that soon there will be fewer and fewer places where US and NATO will be welcome, they will try with all their might to hang on to what they can.
Therefore, I do not see the expulsion of Turkey from NATO at this time – sooner NATO will stop to exist. For now, all that is being said are very careful warnings for Erdogan, sort of like ‘down, boy!’
In fact, Erdogan’s actions are noted to become more and more erratic and unpredictable. He has just destroyed in one fell swoop a decade of building up a very lucrative cooperation with Russia. There is danger he may be trying to generate a conflict with Russia in order to invoke an international clause regulating the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, allowing Turkey to close them down, thus shutting down Russia in Black Sea. Worst case scenario is looming and Russia needs to be prepared for it.
Although Turkey has very little leeway in closing down the straits, it may be attempting an extraordinary provocation to achieve this goal. It’s hard to imagine Turkey acting alone in that.
In one of my earlier articles about Turkey and its role in the region, I predicted that Turkey, by virtue of occupying a very strategic position that essentially bridges Europe and Middle East, serving as a gate into Asia and Black Sea, is allowed by world powers to be strong enough to perform the gatekeeper role, but will never be allowed to get too strong. It will be immediately put in its place, should that happen. This is what we are seeing happen. Turkey is also a very long-standing bone of contention between Russia and the West. Read more in Is Erdogan Trying to Recreate Ottoman Empire?
The issue of the Black Sea straits is very important. As a result of World War I they were supposed to go to Russia, together with what is now Istanbul (Constantinople). This never happened. Do you know why? I’ll explain all about it in the upcoming ESR7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT. This important, albeit volitile, issue may be raised again by Russia.
To add to my NATO and Russia predictions in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet, I can also tell you that Turkey’s actions have weakened NATO and strengthened Russian position in the region.
As I’ve also pointed out in the same article written within a couple of hours after the news of Su-24 downing, the rift between NATO countries will continue intensifying. It’s already evident in France’s Hollande trying to solidify a coalition with Russia. There is a power struggle within NATO between US, who says that there will only be one coalition – theirs, and France, who have already signed a cooperation agreement with Russia. Certainly, France is weak compared to the power of the US. However, due to the force majeure circumstances of the Paris bombings, France’s claim takes precedence under international law. US is being pushed aside in Syria, as France has a legitimate reason to retaliate for Paris attacks.
However, I am skeptical as to how far this cooperation between France and Russia will be allowed to go. Undoubtedly, Hollande will try, but he is also kept on an invisible short leash, as various attacks in France show.
Also, technically, since France is a part of NATO, Russia can’t share that much intel, for fear that it will be again leaked to the US, Turkey and ISIL.
Putin has practically head-on accused USA of aiding Turkey in the downing of the Russian jet. Putin said that USA had signed an agreement with Russia on behalf of all NATO countries, according to which Russia has advised USA/NATO where Russian jets would be at any given moment. This made Turkey, a NATO member, fully aware of all the movements of the Russian jets.
By now it’s clear to the entire world that Turkey was well prepared for this hit. The Russian bomber, which isn’t designed to deflect attacks of fighter jets, was simply ambushed. Turkish fighter was waiting for the Russians, then it maneuvered in such a way as to strike from behind. As Putin so aptly put it, ‘it was a knife strike in Russia’s back.’
It appears that neither NATO nor USA ever thought the whole truth about the attack would come out so quickly. Certainly, a massive miscalculation on their part took place here. As I said in the above-referenced article, instead of being intimidated and leaving Syria, Russia is set for a much deeper and stronger participation in Syria and the Middle East in general.
Turkey is NATO/USA’s tool and weapon in the Middle East. But, in addition Turkey has its own interests and plans. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also have own interests and plans, in addition to being West’s tools in the region.
I received this question from several people: is Erdogan mad; has power gone to his head? Or is he absolutely rational, acting according to his well-thought-out plan? Lots of passionate debates are now taking place among experts. Most people are confused as to how to interpret his seemingly irrational actions.
I’ll give you the entire spread – Turkey (Erdogan)/ Black Sea/ Crimea/ Odessa/ Russia/ NATO/ Balkans/ Pridnestrovie/ Moldova/ Caucasus, and explain the deep connections between all that in my upcoming Earth Shift Report 7 – THE BATTLE FOR EURASIA: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
Military: the preliminary military response to Turkey’s actions has already taken place. Russia established a no-fly zone over the Turkey-Syria border. No movement between Turkish territory and Syria is possible any more, therefore no supply of weapons, rotation of terrorists or ISIL oil truck movement takes place between Syria and Turkey.
Read all about Syria, Russia and Israel; how ISIL/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood are financed, including oil revenues, artifact sales and Turkey/Qatar/Saudi/US role in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER.
It is known that those terrorists that shot at Russian pilots from the ground, killing one, and those who shot down Russian rescue helicopter and killed a marine, were not Turkmen rebels as was initially announced by Turkey, but ‘grey wolves.’ This is an ultra-nationalist Turkish organization with direct links to Erdogan and the ruling party. The man who actually pulled the trigger was a Turkish national and son of a mayor of a Turkish city.
The body of the Russian colonel who piloted the ill-fated Su-24, had surfaced in Ankara, Turkey, where Turkish terrorists brought it to demonstrate their ‘victory’ over the defenceless pilot. Following Russia’s damand, Turkey gave the body back to Russia.
Within one day after the jet’s downing, Russia flew the advanced S-400 systems to its military base in Syria. This is an extraordinary step Russia had refrained from taking before due to pleas from states such as Jordan, Lebanon and Israel, fearing the destabilization of the region. S-400 covers the territory of 400 kilometers in radius and therefore can shoot down Turkish jets on takeoff deep inside Turkish territory. There is no weapon in existence, including radio-electronic interference, that can intercept or stop missiles fired by this advanced Russian system.
S-400 is more advanced than S-300 system that Russia has now begun delivering to Iran. Russia has also developed S-500, the most advanced in the series. Watch ESR4: ALIEN TECHNOLOGY AND NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS for many other Russian cutting-edge designs.
Black Sea Fleet Flagship, Cruiser Moskva, has moved to Syria and is covering Russian airstrikes and bases from the sea.
Russia also made a decision to build two complete military-naval bases in Syria, instead of the initially proposed single base in Tartus.
Essentially, no one can now fly in Syria without the permission of the Russian forces.
This is one of the reasons France is trying to get into some sort of coalition with Russia – there is no other way for them to fly in Syria in order to retaliate on Paris attacks, and Hollande must at least pretend to do so in order to look good for his constituents at home. Russia always looks for cooperation whenever possible. But in truth, as I said in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER and other referenced pieces, Russians really don’t need others: they just need everyone getting out of the way, so they can do their job.
As predicted, Russia was just given by the Turkish actions a very legitimate opportunity to intensify presence in the Middle East and to become the leading player in the region.
Economic sanctions: Putin announced the preliminary economic sanctions package against Turkey. Visa-free regime is suspended as of 1/1/2016. Russia stops selling tours to Turkey and the last of Russian tourists are returning home. This is a big blow. Turkey is visited annually by 3-5 million Russians and they leave there $10 bln annually. Russians are by far the biggest tourism market for Turks, and tourism constitutes 25% of Turkish economy.
Turkish business in Russia is banned and all Turkish business licenses revoked. Turkish nationals are denied visas and expelled. This is also a huge blow, hitting not only Turkish companies but wider into the Muslim-oriented network of mafias. Turkish business has been huge since Yeltsin’s times. I will talk about its incredibly deep penetration and powerful lobby in Russia in the upcoming ESR7.
Russian companies are prohibited from hiring Turkish workers. Charter flights to Turkey are banned starting 1/1/2016, while regular flights are still on, pending further notice. There is a partial ban on Turkish produce and goods. The list will be finalised soon. This is just the start. Turkey is only in the beginning of the process of paying the price – much more to come.
Russian gas supplies to Turkey and Turkish/Blue Stream project are a different and complicated story, which we’ll also discuss in ESR7.
Meanwhile, Turkish oligarchs are starting to incur losses due to Russian sanctions.
By now it has become apparent (as I hinted in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet) that the terrorist act of blowing up Ukrainian power lines to Crimea was organized by Turkey in close cooperation with Poroshenko and Kiev government, using Crimean Tartar extremist organization Medjlis and ukro-nazis. The connection between these parties is much deeper than many imagine (read Urgent! Ukraine Blows Up Power Lines, Leaving Crimea and 2.5 Million People Without Electricity). I have some new revealing intel.
Last but not least, there is a fight breaking out between Erdogan and the Turkish military. A military coup may be possible.
All the above and its profound implications will de discussed in detail in Earth Shift Report 7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
China weighs in
China has sent its aircraft carrier to Syria in support of Russian forces. The story of this Soviet-made Chinese aircraft carrier – the country’s only – is remarkable and provocative in its own right. The very presence of this particular vessel sends a number of serious messages to Russia, NATO, US and even Ukraine. Very subtly, in its usual way, China is hinting on something. What is it? Stay tuned for ESR7, where all will be revealed.
Putin in Paris
Along with many other heads of state, Vladimir Putin is in Paris for the UN Climate Conference. While the pretext is global warming (and we won’t discuss it here), the conference is being used by heads of major states to discuss what’s really on everyone’s mind: Syria, Turkey, ISIL, Russian jet and Crimea.
Multiple times and through all imaginable channels in the past two days, Turkey’s Erdogan had attempted to secure a telephone conversation with Putin, but was rebuffed. In Paris, Erdogan again attempted to meet with Putin on the sidelines, but was again refused.
Putin met with Chinese President, which happens very frequently lately. Last meeting was two weeks ago.
Putin also met with Barack Obama and spoke with him for 30 minutes. Note that this meeting takes place after Putin has practically accused US of aiding terrorists along with Turkey. This is their second contact in the past two weeks, after over a year of mutual silence. Obama finally uttered ‘regret’ about the downing of the Russian jet. Does this signal a further distancing of USA/NATO from Turkey, or is it just for show?
For answers to all the above questions,
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Earth Shift Report 7
Erdogan, Davutoglu & Ottoman Empire
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Posted on November 30, 2015, in Earth Shift Report, Eurasia, Geopolitical Trends, Middle East, Russia and tagged Black Sea, Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, China, Earth Shift Report, Erdogan, eurasia, geopolitics of the Middle east, ISIL, NATO, Obama, Paris Climate Conference, Putin, Russia, S-400, Su-24M jet, Turkey. Bookmark the permalink. 29 Comments.