As we’ve discussed in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 in Syria, there is hell for Turkey to pay for the downing of the Russian jet. NATO, EU and even US have been trying very hard to distance themselves from Turkey, insisting it’s all between Russia and the ‘unpredictable’ Erdogan.
As predicted in the same article, neither NATO nor EU would move a muscle to protect Turkey. In fact, various Western politicians and generals are floating an opinion that Turkey should be expelled from NATO.
I can tell you this won’t happen. It’s certainly not realistic for as long as NATO exists in its current state. US and NATO have too many bases in Turkey and they won’t just abandon this primest of the prime spot, allowing them to meddle with Russia. Considering that soon there will be fewer and fewer places where US and NATO will be welcome, they will try with all their might to hang on to what they can.
Therefore, I do not see the expulsion of Turkey from NATO at this time – sooner NATO will stop to exist. For now, all that is being said are very careful warnings for Erdogan, sort of like ‘down, boy!’
In fact, Erdogan’s actions are noted to become more and more erratic and unpredictable. He has just destroyed in one fell swoop a decade of building up a very lucrative cooperation with Russia. There is danger he may be trying to generate a conflict with Russia in order to invoke an international clause regulating the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, allowing Turkey to close them down, thus shutting down Russia in Black Sea. Worst case scenario is looming and Russia needs to be prepared for it.
Although Turkey has very little leeway in closing down the straits, it may be attempting an extraordinary provocation to achieve this goal. It’s hard to imagine Turkey acting alone in that.
In one of my earlier articles about Turkey and its role in the region, I predicted that Turkey, by virtue of occupying a very strategic position that essentially bridges Europe and Middle East, serving as a gate into Asia and Black Sea, is allowed by world powers to be strong enough to perform the gatekeeper role, but will never be allowed to get too strong. It will be immediately put in its place, should that happen. This is what we are seeing happen. Turkey is also a very long-standing bone of contention between Russia and the West. Read more in Is Erdogan Trying to Recreate Ottoman Empire?
The issue of the Black Sea straits is very important. As a result of World War I they were supposed to go to Russia, together with what is now Istanbul (Constantinople). This never happened. Do you know why? I’ll explain all about it in the upcoming ESR7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT. This important, albeit volitile, issue may be raised again by Russia.
To add to my NATO and Russia predictions in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet, I can also tell you that Turkey’s actions have weakened NATO and strengthened Russian position in the region.
As I’ve also pointed out in the same article written within a couple of hours after the news of Su-24 downing, the rift between NATO countries will continue intensifying. It’s already evident in France’s Hollande trying to solidify a coalition with Russia. There is a power struggle within NATO between US, who says that there will only be one coalition – theirs, and France, who have already signed a cooperation agreement with Russia. Certainly, France is weak compared to the power of the US. However, due to the force majeure circumstances of the Paris bombings, France’s claim takes precedence under international law. US is being pushed aside in Syria, as France has a legitimate reason to retaliate for Paris attacks.
However, I am skeptical as to how far this cooperation between France and Russia will be allowed to go. Undoubtedly, Hollande will try, but he is also kept on an invisible short leash, as various attacks in France show.
Also, technically, since France is a part of NATO, Russia can’t share that much intel, for fear that it will be again leaked to the US, Turkey and ISIL.
Putin has practically head-on accused USA of aiding Turkey in the downing of the Russian jet. Putin said that USA had signed an agreement with Russia on behalf of all NATO countries, according to which Russia has advised USA/NATO where Russian jets would be at any given moment. This made Turkey, a NATO member, fully aware of all the movements of the Russian jets.
By now it’s clear to the entire world that Turkey was well prepared for this hit. The Russian bomber, which isn’t designed to deflect attacks of fighter jets, was simply ambushed. Turkish fighter was waiting for the Russians, then it maneuvered in such a way as to strike from behind. As Putin so aptly put it, ‘it was a knife strike in Russia’s back.’
It appears that neither NATO nor USA ever thought the whole truth about the attack would come out so quickly. Certainly, a massive miscalculation on their part took place here. As I said in the above-referenced article, instead of being intimidated and leaving Syria, Russia is set for a much deeper and stronger participation in Syria and the Middle East in general.
Turkey is NATO/USA’s tool and weapon in the Middle East. But, in addition Turkey has its own interests and plans. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also have own interests and plans, in addition to being West’s tools in the region.
I received this question from several people: is Erdogan mad; has power gone to his head? Or is he absolutely rational, acting according to his well-thought-out plan? Lots of passionate debates are now taking place among experts. Most people are confused as to how to interpret his seemingly irrational actions.
I’ll give you the entire spread – Turkey (Erdogan)/ Black Sea/ Crimea/ Odessa/ Russia/ NATO/ Balkans/ Pridnestrovie/ Moldova/ Caucasus, and explain the deep connections between all that in my upcoming Earth Shift Report 7 – THE BATTLE FOR EURASIA: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
Military: the preliminary military response to Turkey’s actions has already taken place. Russia established a no-fly zone over the Turkey-Syria border. No movement between Turkish territory and Syria is possible any more, therefore no supply of weapons, rotation of terrorists or ISIL oil truck movement takes place between Syria and Turkey.
Read all about Syria, Russia and Israel; how ISIL/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood are financed, including oil revenues, artifact sales and Turkey/Qatar/Saudi/US role in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER.
It is known that those terrorists that shot at Russian pilots from the ground, killing one, and those who shot down Russian rescue helicopter and killed a marine, were not Turkmen rebels as was initially announced by Turkey, but ‘grey wolves.’ This is an ultra-nationalist Turkish organization with direct links to Erdogan and the ruling party. The man who actually pulled the trigger was a Turkish national and son of a mayor of a Turkish city.
The body of the Russian colonel who piloted the ill-fated Su-24, had surfaced in Ankara, Turkey, where Turkish terrorists brought it to demonstrate their ‘victory’ over the defenceless pilot. Following Russia’s damand, Turkey gave the body back to Russia.
Within one day after the jet’s downing, Russia flew the advanced S-400 systems to its military base in Syria. This is an extraordinary step Russia had refrained from taking before due to pleas from states such as Jordan, Lebanon and Israel, fearing the destabilization of the region. S-400 covers the territory of 400 kilometers in radius and therefore can shoot down Turkish jets on takeoff deep inside Turkish territory. There is no weapon in existence, including radio-electronic interference, that can intercept or stop missiles fired by this advanced Russian system.
S-400 is more advanced than S-300 system that Russia has now begun delivering to Iran. Russia has also developed S-500, the most advanced in the series. Watch ESR4: ALIEN TECHNOLOGY AND NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS for many other Russian cutting-edge designs.
Black Sea Fleet Flagship, Cruiser Moskva, has moved to Syria and is covering Russian airstrikes and bases from the sea.
Russia also made a decision to build two complete military-naval bases in Syria, instead of the initially proposed single base in Tartus.
Essentially, no one can now fly in Syria without the permission of the Russian forces.
This is one of the reasons France is trying to get into some sort of coalition with Russia – there is no other way for them to fly in Syria in order to retaliate on Paris attacks, and Hollande must at least pretend to do so in order to look good for his constituents at home. Russia always looks for cooperation whenever possible. But in truth, as I said in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER and other referenced pieces, Russians really don’t need others: they just need everyone getting out of the way, so they can do their job.
As predicted, Russia was just given by the Turkish actions a very legitimate opportunity to intensify presence in the Middle East and to become the leading player in the region.
Economic sanctions: Putin announced the preliminary economic sanctions package against Turkey. Visa-free regime is suspended as of 1/1/2016. Russia stops selling tours to Turkey and the last of Russian tourists are returning home. This is a big blow. Turkey is visited annually by 3-5 million Russians and they leave there $10 bln annually. Russians are by far the biggest tourism market for Turks, and tourism constitutes 25% of Turkish economy.
Turkish business in Russia is banned and all Turkish business licenses revoked. Turkish nationals are denied visas and expelled. This is also a huge blow, hitting not only Turkish companies but wider into the Muslim-oriented network of mafias. Turkish business has been huge since Yeltsin’s times. I will talk about its incredibly deep penetration and powerful lobby in Russia in the upcoming ESR7.
Russian companies are prohibited from hiring Turkish workers. Charter flights to Turkey are banned starting 1/1/2016, while regular flights are still on, pending further notice. There is a partial ban on Turkish produce and goods. The list will be finalised soon. This is just the start. Turkey is only in the beginning of the process of paying the price – much more to come.
Russian gas supplies to Turkey and Turkish/Blue Stream project are a different and complicated story, which we’ll also discuss in ESR7.
Meanwhile, Turkish oligarchs are starting to incur losses due to Russian sanctions.
By now it has become apparent (as I hinted in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet) that the terrorist act of blowing up Ukrainian power lines to Crimea was organized by Turkey in close cooperation with Poroshenko and Kiev government, using Crimean Tartar extremist organization Medjlis and ukro-nazis. The connection between these parties is much deeper than many imagine (read Urgent! Ukraine Blows Up Power Lines, Leaving Crimea and 2.5 Million People Without Electricity). I have some new revealing intel.
Last but not least, there is a fight breaking out between Erdogan and the Turkish military. A military coup may be possible.
All the above and its profound implications will de discussed in detail in Earth Shift Report 7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
China weighs in
China has sent its aircraft carrier to Syria in support of Russian forces. The story of this Soviet-made Chinese aircraft carrier – the country’s only – is remarkable and provocative in its own right. The very presence of this particular vessel sends a number of serious messages to Russia, NATO, US and even Ukraine. Very subtly, in its usual way, China is hinting on something. What is it? Stay tuned for ESR7, where all will be revealed.
Putin in Paris
Along with many other heads of state, Vladimir Putin is in Paris for the UN Climate Conference. While the pretext is global warming (and we won’t discuss it here), the conference is being used by heads of major states to discuss what’s really on everyone’s mind: Syria, Turkey, ISIL, Russian jet and Crimea.
Multiple times and through all imaginable channels in the past two days, Turkey’s Erdogan had attempted to secure a telephone conversation with Putin, but was rebuffed. In Paris, Erdogan again attempted to meet with Putin on the sidelines, but was again refused.
Putin met with Chinese President, which happens very frequently lately. Last meeting was two weeks ago.
Putin also met with Barack Obama and spoke with him for 30 minutes. Note that this meeting takes place after Putin has practically accused US of aiding terrorists along with Turkey. This is their second contact in the past two weeks, after over a year of mutual silence. Obama finally uttered ‘regret’ about the downing of the Russian jet. Does this signal a further distancing of USA/NATO from Turkey, or is it just for show?
For answers to all the above questions,
explosive newest intel, clandestine ops, loud scandals and quiet wars
surrounding one of the most sought after strategic areas of the world, read:
Earth Shift Report 7
Erdogan, Davutoglu & Ottoman Empire
Coming December 13!
(Why is Black Sea so valuable geopolitically?)
COMING NEXT WEEK!
Please stay tuned!
This new report should be read in conjunction with
(see more posts in Ask Lada category)
First thing we all have to keep in mind is that Assad and Erdogan are personal enemies. They hate each other for a variety of reasons. They belong to very different branches of Islam. They represent diverging directions of the Middle Eastern tradition and thought. In everything they do they feel they get in each other’s way.
Turkey and Erdogan have behaved very un-neighborly towards Syria, and it’s understandable that Syrian leader has a grudge against Erdogan.
Turkey in fact is presently fighting a war on several fronts. That includes the internal war with the opposition fed by the West. Syria and Assad’s situation is very difficult, but Erdogan cannot be envied either.
All this is part of the huge karmic opening of old wounds and the beginning of the shift in the Middle East. There is no corner of the globe where the Earth Shift will not be felt, in some places more, in some less. It all depends on how much work the people of a specific region or country have done in the past to clean up their house. Some countries have gone in the past through some very hard, and at times, excruciating work to change their situation. Countries like that include China, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Other countries may have kept their house in relative order. Switzerland is one example. Such countries will go through the Earth Shift with relative ease.
However, the countries that failed to address their problems, simply sweeping them under the rug, will have to deal with a lot of turmoil. Such example is Ukraine. Many countries of the Middle East are also good examples.
The problems of the Middle East are magnified by the local rivalries, lack of acceptance of another’s point of view, and religious intolerance.
Therefore, while Assad himself may believe adamantly what he says, anything he says about Erdogan and Turkey has to be taken with a grain of salt.
This is not to say he is wrong.
But Assad, for one, is brewing in this soup of local rivalries, which often makes it hard, if not impossible, to see a bigger picture. And two, Assad remains a very experienced politician. Knowing his big interview with the Russian media would receive a wide international resonance, he obviously tried to stack the cards to his advantage.
Remember we had talked about targeted info dumps? This is one. More about it: Learn to Tell a Hoax from Targeted Info Dump. It’s not a hoax, but it’s a targeted and manipulated in a certain way message meant for specific audience.
Although this interview is given to the Russian media, the message isn’t necessarily meant for Russia, although I’m certain some Russian Middle East specialists are paying attention. But Russia is firmly in Assad’s corner.
It is meant mostly for the EU and some of the Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt – the largest military power in the Middle East, which often provides the stabilizing element. Egypt powers that be also have a very serious beef with Muslim Brotherhood. The message is also possibly meant for Saudis and Israelis. Iran and Syria are likely on the same page, but it is a reminder for Iran as well. This info dump is meant to scare the recipients into making sure Turkey and Erdogan don’t gain more power. Basically, this is something that will make different powers work together on curbing Turkey’s ambitions.
Assad desperately needs Turkey to weaken. Turkey, together with US, has been training Syrian opposition militants and has been helping any force, including ISIL, that fights the Syrian government. Turkey has been sabotaging the Kurdish attempts to fight ISIL as well. The Kurds, spread around several Middle Eastern countries, want to reunite and demand their own state. They are perceived by Erdogan as a big problem. Therefore, anything Kurds do becomes automatically at odds with what Erdogan wants done.
The entire Middle Eastern scene is extremely convoluted and entangled. It’s simply brimming with controversy and confusion. Sometimes it looks like a war of all against everyone. In the geopolitical arena anyone is regarded with great distrust and suspicion and alliances change on a whim.
Erdogan is put in a very precarious position. Elections are coming. At the same time, Turkey has been housing 2 million Syrian refugees. These are the refugees that Erdogan is now delivering to the border with Greece and sending off to Europe.
Meanwhile, Turkey is trying to quell internal conflict that keeps flaring up. This conflict has its historic roots inside the country, in part because of Erdogan’s stance on Syria and Kurds. The Kurds themselves constantly remind Erdogan they want independence. But the internal conflict has outside sponsors. It flared up and spread after Erdogan and Putin agreed on Turkish Stream. The idea of these well-known outside forces is to create so much instability in Turkey that Turkish Stream would become impossible.
Turkey’s geopolitical position has always been considered super-valuable. But at this time of extreme Earth Shift, it is also a very precarious position, open to all the winds. Erdogan, both because of his policies and because of his geopolitical realities, is finding himself without allies. He gets criticised and attacked from all directions. As I said, he is fighting a war on several fronts.
For several centuries, the Ottoman Empire dominated the Middle East. People still remember that. They certainly don’t want the Turkish-based dominance back. This adds to the suspicion of Turkey. Under such circumstances Erdogan has to look for any sort of affinities and allies wherever he can find them.
There are several powers vying for the dominance in the Middle East: these are Turkey, Iran and Egypt, plus, Saudi Arabia. Saudis are the richest in the Middle East, and they still have the stigma of being USA’s ally, therefore being percieved as being supported by powerful sponsors, whether it’s true any more, or not. Saudis are good at political games, but their army, while very well equipped, isn’t good at fighting. They still have a lot of pull. Israel also has to be factored in, although it’s a different story.
Turkey and Erdogan do dream of dominating the Middle East. Does Erdogan want to increase his influence and re-create the old Ottoman empire in some form? Yes, to a degree, he does. But not necessarily the way Assad portrays it. For one I don’t know if Muslim Brotherhood is that likely to appoint Erdogan their leader, surrendering their power to him. Why would they? They exist as a set structure, with their own chain of command. The most they can do is agree on some sort of alliance.
But more than anything, Turkey wants to be a world player, be accepted on the world stage. Regardless of how Erdogan feels about Muslim Brotherhood, he is a politician first and foremost. In order to be a regional player, Turkey needs to have solid ties with EU, Russia and at least some of the key Middle Eastern countries. Erdogan is trying, but for him it’s one step forward and two backward. Erdogan, by some of his actions, has put himself in a way of confrontation and isolation. This will not create more influence for Turkey, just the opposite.
At the same time, Turkey’s geopolitical location is very important. Turkey is needed as a player, and as a factor. This is the desire of all major powers, including US, EU, Russia and China, because Turkey serves as a counterweight and a balancing factor in the region. But no one will allow Turkey to become a dominant force in the Middle East. Neither Russia, EU or US, nor the aforementioned Middle East players can afford that.
Therefore, it really is inconsequential whether Erdogan is or isn’t an intellectual ally of Muslim Brotherhood. Because of its very special geopolitical position Turkey serves as a bridge between East and West, but doesn’t control much of either.
Such situation suits all super-powers. Turkey is very valuable as a somewhat strong bridge-country, but not too strong. Turkey can do pin pricks to remind of its presence and to demand attention, such as interfering in Syria, sending refugees to the EU, delaying Turkish Stream, or pretending they won’t let US ships into the Black Sea. In the end Turkey always plays ball because that’s the extent of Turkey’s leash.
As a consequence, Turkey’s politics can only work within a certain narrow corridor. Turkish leader who doesn’t stay within this corridor, will not survive. Erdogan has tried to expand this corridor by conducting his own policies. It wasn’t very successful and he has reached the end of his leash.
There is another reason Erdogan is trying to align himself with someone – anyone. The Middle East is changing rapidly. The borders are still being held in place due to the 1945 agreements between USSR, US and UK. However, soon the borders in the Middle East and some other world regions will start crumbling as the new reality emerges.
ISIL, Muslim Brotherhood and dozens, if not hundreds, of other formations that are mushrooming in the Middle East try to grab as much land as they can. The states try to defend their borders, while at the same time attempt to grab what they can as well. Erdogan simply has to stay in the game because in that reality it’s eat or be eaten. He has to play the aggressive game of expansion, or his country will be contracting. He also has to account for contingencies.
This is beyond Erdogan and Turkey’s long-cherished imperial ambitions – it is the reality of survival. This kind of situation exists in some other regions of the world as well.
On different levels – be it social, financial, political or military – this scenario of rapid change and struggle to keep control of the situation is something facing now the majority of countries. Welcome to the Earth Shift!
Therefore, take with a grain of salt what anyone in the Middle East says. Again, this is not to say that Assad isn’t right. He says what he feels is true from his perspective. The entanglements of this region of the world are such that everyone is pulling the blanket onto themselves, touting their own agenda as the only correct one.
But the world leaders such as Putin need to be well above this regional fight; global geopolitical thinking is required. Russia is well-positioned to play a pacifying and balancing role in the Middle East. In fact, it’s the only country that can accomplish this feat.
More breaking stuff:
More news from the Middle East and Syria are coming. Things are shifting fast. The US stance on Assad, Syria and on ISIL is cracking due to Russia’s skillful diplomacy and strides to create anti-ISIL coalition. The international pressure on the US is growing. Some of the biggest pressure is coming from the EU experiencing an unheard of refugee crisis.
Vladimir Putin coming to speak at the UN General Assembly in a week is also a part of the surprise change in the US position. Generally speaking, Putin’s speech at the UNGA has become quite a phenomenon, acquiring a life of its own before it even happened. Putin hasn’t dropped that bomb on New York yet, but the aftermath of the future event is already bearing consequences. I’ll have more on all the developments this week and next. Stay tuned!
This is an interesting related bit, demonstrating just how successfully Russia has made strides in shaping up a coalition on Syria:
NEWS & ANNOUNCEMENTS:
The projected release of the New Khazarian Khaganate Earth Shift Report is next week.
I am also working on some new, surprise Earth Shift Reports. One of them will be about the volatile and important situation developing around the Black Sea region, where a new geopolitical faultline is forming. I’ll share the hot intel from Odessa, Pridnestrovie, Moldova, Romania and Turkey. Stay tuned.
As usual, go to LadaRay.info for all Earth Shift Report links.
Calibration Reading — Earth & Personal Shift — Earth Shift Predictions — Feng Shui
Just couldn’t pass this up! Guaranteed, you won’t see this exchange on BBC, CNN or Euronews.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan met in Baku, Azerbaijan, which is hosting the first ever European Games under the auspices of the IOC.
While there are African, Asian and other continental games, there were no European games till now. This was of course due to the fact that Olympics as such were born in Europe, therefore, the Olympics proper were till recently perceived as ‘European Games,’ if you will.
I have to say, I would much prefer to see Eurasian Games, uniting all the peoples of Europe and Asia, including EU, Russia, Middle East and all of Asian countries. Eurasia is in fact one continent, once upon a time artificially divided in two.
Some people may say: First European Games… and in Azerbaijan? Isn’t that strange?Azerbaijan is a Muslim country and the Opening Ceremony was a confirmation of that, when the entire show evolved around Middle Eastern themes. However, geographically all of Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, is a part of Europe.
Both Erdogan and Putin were present at the Opening Ceremony of the games (see video below). Incidentally, both Russian and Turkish cultural influences are very strong in Azerbaijan. Everyone speaks Russian and many conduct business in Russian/with Russia. Meanwhile, Azeris feel their biggest historic affinity to the Turks, although some lean closer to Iran.
Therefore, during the Opening Ceremony both Russian and Turkish teams received the most support from the audience, apart from the host, Azerbaijan, whose appearance was met with an ovation.
Basically, both Putin and Erdogan feel quite at home in Baku. They have met on the sidelines and here is a brief translation of their meeting (video below).
Erdogan: ‘First of all, I want to note that it was a great celebration yesterday at the opening. Great first games. What struck me was that none of the EU leaders showed up. At least they will be represented by their athletes during sporting events.
Putin (0:50): You, as a candidate for ascension to the EU, represented the entire European Union yesterday (laughter).
Lada’s remark: since EU constitutes a large part of Europe, especially, considering it’s what is traditionally thought of as ‘Europe,’ it seemed really strange that none of them showed up in Baku. In reality, nothing strange about that. This is punishment to Baku and Azeri President Aliyev for attending the Victory Day on May 9th in Moscow and for getting closer to Russia.
Of course, Azerbaijan was awarded the first European Games hosting in 2012, BEFORE Aliyev started getting closer to Russia. Things like that traditionally are bribes given by the West to various countries. Hosting games such as these strokes the country’s ego and in exchange the country is expected to do what it’s told. The same way as Azerbaijani singers often placed second or won Eurovision in the past. The singers’ natural talent notwithstanding, Eurovision is one of the most politicized shows on the planet and these are clearly political bribes. This time, with the European Games, the bribe was wasted.
I mentioned in some of my articles and a previous interview with The Plane Truth that Putin jet-setted the world throughout 2014, creating a complex web of new alliances. One of the brilliant moves by Putin that the West entirely missed was to invite both Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents to the 2014 world wrestling championship in Sochi. Wrestling is the most popular sport in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. But that’s where similarities end.
Ever since both former Soviet Republics, and before that regions of the Russian Empire, became independent in 1992, undeclared war raged between them for the disputed province of Nagorny Karabakh. Although Russia officially took a neutral position, Russia is considered by most a supporter of Armenia. For the first time ever, Putin managed to get the two enemies into one room, sat them on both sides of himself as they watched wrestling matches, and for the first time in decades, had the two shake hands. No one else was ever able to achieve such feat. After that, and after Russia awarded new agricultural/food export contracts to Azerbaijan to replace the sanctioned European agricultural products, Russia-Azerbaijan relations skyrocketed into a new orbit practically overnight.
I wrote last year that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s father, previous president Geidar Aliyev, was intimidated into cooperation with the US against Russia in the 1990s after a CIA assassination attempt. His son starting to make moves towards Russia means he is now a target, too. Let’s note that Erdogan himself endured assassination attempt and multiple color revolution attempts, as well as a storm of attacks in Western press, after he and Putin agreed on the Turkish Stream late last year. But Erdogan is a general and he is much tougher than he may appear.
Consequently, Aliyev is being advised and supported by two very useful allies. This means he will be able to withstand pressure by the West.
The above inside joke by Putin is a hint at the fact that Turkey has been knocking on the EU door for over 50 years, but was never accepted, despite its close cooperation with NATO (against USSR and Russia, I might add). Erdogan gave up on the EU and changed gears towards Russia. During Erdogan’s visit to Moscow last year, he joked that Turkey wasn’t welcome in the EU; perhaps it was time for Turkey to ask for membership in Eurasian Union. As they say in Russia: ‘every joke contains a little joke; the rest is the truth.’
Video: Putin and Erdogan Troll EU at Baku’s First European Games
First European Games Complete Opening Ceremony, Baku, Azerbaijan. It was beautifully done and the Middle Eastern imagery was stunning. Unfortunately, not everything was factually correct (such as the legend of Europa and the Bull). Besides, the English commentators were as clueless as ever.
Vladimir Putin sits on the left of the hosts, President Aliyev and his wife, next to the IOC President Thomas Bach.
To form a complete picture, this post should be read in concert with: Putin’s New Ally: Pope Francis
New LadaRayLive Episode! LRL6. Secret Connection: Russian Gas to Turkey – Greek Election – EU Breakup
Watch the new LadaRayLive Episode No.6 on YouTube!
Lada’s geopolitical and geoeconomic analysis and predictions.
In the short couple of days after #Syriza won the Greek elections, #Greece has already challenged the EU more than once. Will there be #Grexit? Who is next to rebel (Spain already is)? Will this lead to the EU breakup, and when?
We talk about the EU game changer: how Russia’s discontinuing the South Stream project and announcing the new alliance with Turkey, together with the new Turkish Stream pipeline, influences the future of Eurozone.
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This is additional info and clarification of my original article: Bombshell! Russia to Stop Transit of Gas to EU Through Ukraine! For the complete picture make sure you read both!
I see a lot of confusion surrounding this issue. Therefore, I will clarify a few things here:
1. The statement by the Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller was made. This is not fiction. It is another question whether his statement was misinterpreted – intentionally or not – taken out of context, or intentionally exaggerated by the EU and Ukraine, who are customarily trying to shift the blame to Russia for all their sins, as I wrote in my above-referenced piece.
2. Materials have been published, among other things, on the Pravda.ru site. I went back to Pravda.ru, and so far I’ve been unable to find the two pieces I relied upon in my article.
3. Some small counties, Bulgaria and Croatia, to name a couple (both entirely under the US and Brussels thumb), plus the EU Commission (also headed by a Croatian national, as far as I can see) panicked and started yelling “Russians are coming” – or rather… “Russians are leaving.” Well, since ‘Russians are coming’ is bad and ‘Russians are leaving’ is also bad – what are the Russians to do, I wonder?
4. Ukraine, for its turn, also jumped on the bandwagon of blaming Russia to conceal its usual stealing of Russian gas. The immediate impact was exaggerated by Ukraine on purpose escalating the panic. For years, this is all Ukraine does. The moment any of their many self-made disasters backfires – it is immediately blamed on Russia, while Western MSM and politicians gladly give them the platforms to do so. Same happened in 2008 with Saakashvili of Georgia.
5. Re-read my article, those who didn’t do it carefully the first time – and notice my careful wording. The announcement by Alexei Miller is meant as a geopolitical and economic warning. In the article, I say specifically that at this time EU has no alternative to Russian gas.
Also notice my predictions (see article link above, and more below), in which I say there is still some time to go. Frankly, I hardly remember any time when my predictions didn’t come true, down to the exact timing of the events. It appears it may be right on the dot this time as well. More PREDICTIONS.
6. The materials related to Miller’s announcement were first published by Pravda.ru in Russian exactly how I phrased it in the beginning of my original article. I omitted the links to the source, as the two small pieces were in Russian, and perhaps, I shouldn’t have.
It appears the Daily Mail article was taken from Pravda.ru, plus, from some hysterical statements by EU, Croatia, Bulgaria and Ukraine. At this time, I cannot find the link to the original Pravda.ru articles – it appears the pieces have been relegated to archives. The event was also confirmed by some Russian analysts.
It is not true that RT didn’t run the story, as some suggested. Here is a very carefully worded RT story.
Therefore, it appears Russians, as usual, try not to rock the boat too much. Perhaps the warning was judged to be sufficient at this point. See more on that below.
7. I don’t have the complete information on all the details of how exactly Russia/Gazprom have acted in this case, and why. No one does – everything is pure speculation. Of all people, only Putin has the complete picture and full information, based on which the decisions are made.
What I see and foresee: the situation is VERY MUCH IN A FLUX right now, and for the foreseeable future; decisions are being made in live mode, in response to challenges as they come up.
I want to stress again: we are living through a massively revolutionary EARTH SHIFT on all levels. Putin, Russia, Gazprom have a lot of very serious maneuvering to do every day.
However, here is what is set in stone:
Gazprom/Russia will soon transition out of Ukraine completely. All of Ukraine’s annual transit 63 bln cubic meters of Russian gas to the EU will go exclusively through Turkey. The new Turkish Stream pipeline is being built as we speak.
My predictions regarding EU starting to experience gas shortages will come to pass sooner, rather than later… unless EU snaps out of its fearful submissiveness to the US, multiplied by EU’s own ulterior motives towards Russia. I am also warning that the way EU acts, when it does finally see the light, it may be too late.
What is happening around the world, including violence, confusion, crisis, disasters – will only escalate. I will eventually have full predictions for this decade and beyond as a separate EARTH SHIFT REPORT on LadaRay.info. Stay tuned!
IF humans are still interested in keeping the world as we know it intact, then they should pay close attention and support what Russia does. Keeping your perspective and wits is also a very important thing. I will continue to inform and guide on this blog, YT channel and LadaRay.info.
8. Incidentally, when breaking the news, Russians fully realised this would create a storm in the EU/West, and the howling would start anew. Again, this is just a warning, a heads up, so to speak: ‘Hey, EU we have plenty of leverage over you too, not just the US. If you disregard our interests to this degree, here is what can happen.’ Of course there is no intention of freezing the poor children in Bulgaria.
Notice the big paragraph in my article (can’t miss it – it’s huge) about all the most recent abuses by EU/West/Ukraine against Russia and Donbass? I put all that in there on purpose in order to remind people what Russia has to deal with daily, and therefore, how well justified any action by Russia would be.
9. Any announcement by Gazprom always has huge consequences. It is possible that Alexei Miller’s wording was partially misinterpreted because of wishful thinking. Let’s face it – many people all over the globe are sick and tired of the blatant piracy by Ukraine and blatant lies of the EU. Ukraine and EU – being guilty of massive lies and transgressions they perpetrate daily against Russia – also secretly, in their heart (if there is one available) know Russia can pull the plug at any moment. Many people all over the world are hoping Russia would do so to end this vicious cycle of predatory Western all-permissiveness and ukro-nazi crimes.
Notice, Miller’s statement was left intentionally ambiguous.
ADDED: Found some links! The following posts from Pravda.ru contain additional info: Мечты сбываются, или Ультиматум “Газпрома.” Also: “Газпром”: “Турецкий поток” – единственный маршрут для поставки российского газа в Европу and “Газпром” станет крупнейшим игроком в Турции. Keep in mind, this site, despite its name, is NOT a pro-Kremlin/pro-Putin publication. Actually, often quite the opposite. That said, information in the above posts is accurate.
10. All the above added to the confusion. To wrap this up, here is what I wrote as my original reply to the reader questions. My notes below reflect my original reaction to the Gazprom news by Daily Mail, before I saw additional materials on Pravda.ru. As usual, my original instinct was correct, and as usual, the original reaction contained the concentrated seed of truth. This is the verbatim exchange from a recent post:
This is a bombshell that was dropped by Russia earlier today (Good job, Christa!).
It has been officially confirmed! The head of Gazprom Alexei Miller announced that Russia would discontinue the Ukrainian route for Russian gas transit to the EU. I expected this announcement ever since I broke the news of the Turkey/Russia deal on 12/2/14, but I did expect it in a year or two: read here and here. Looks like the time is getting compressed and the pressure for change is intensifying.
I understand at this time the flow of gas through Ukraine has been restricted to 2/5th of the usual volume. However, it appears it will soon be stopped completely.
Russia to switch fully to the Turkish Stream to move the quantities necessary to satisfy all of European demand. Ukraine up till now was responsible for about 50% of the Russian gas transit to the EU, with Nord Stream, Belarus and Turkey accounting for the rest.
Ukraine, as always during the heating season, has been stealing Russian gas. This is in addition to massive debt Ukraine has with Russia. Russia is by far Ukraine’s largest creditor; gas debt alone constitutes nearly $5.5 bln. Total Ukraine’s debt to Russia, including corporate is well over $30 bln, according to Vladimir Putin.
This is a much bolder move than anyone expected. EU is in shock. According to Gazrpom’s head Alexei Miller, EU didn’t want South Stream Russia tried to build as partners together with the EU. Therefore, Russia will now deliver gas to Turkey, and then to the border between Turkey and Greece. From thereon, it will be EU’s responsibility to build pipelines through its territory.
Gazprom is to become a big player in Turkey, and Turkey in return will enjoy massive gas price discounts and large profits from the resale of gas to the EU and other buyers.
Read related articles from 12/2/14: German Vice Chancellor: No Ukraine in NATO; Russia, Let’s Make Up! and from 12/5/14: Declaration of Cold War: What Chain of Events is US Provoking With New Hostile Move? In these I discuss in detail the Putin/Erdogan agreement on building the alternative pipeline to Turkey!
I see several interesting things at play here:
1. My predictions:
First of all, let’s recall that I said from the beginning of 2014 and many times throughout 2014 that when Russia feels even slightly inconvenienced by the West, off to the East they go. My prediction came true spectacularly within only two or three months, when in May 2014 Russia signed a number of mega-deals with China on gas supply, the Power of Siberia gas pipeline construction, high-speed railroad construction, and much more. Then, Putin also signed massive gas supply deal with Turkey to bypass the unfriendly EU, plus, a massive nuclear energy deal. Turkey is, of course, also a part of the East (Middle East).
Second prediction I made was that Europe would start experiencing gas shortages due to Russia’s re-orientation to the East. I said it would happen a few years from now. It appears my predictions’ time table is accelerating!
See the PREDICTIONS page on top navigation bar, as well as my 2014 articles under RUSSIA category for much more on that. Some of the articles are: What Brought Down Russian Satellite? Angela Merkel’s Biggest Fear? Plus Ukraine Election Prediction; Ukraine Part 7: Russia’s Geopolitics, USA’s Bluff and EU’s Big Mistake; Interview with predictions: The Road to Moscow Goes Through Kiev.
2. It seems Miller and Gazprom are very confident that EU has no alternative to the Russian gas at this time. For the longest time EU and Ukraine had been able to blackmail Russia every year, taking advantage of the fact that the EU was Russia’s largest customer and Ukraine – the largest transit artery.
Russia was customarily accused of various transgressions, the blame was yearly shifted to Russia for any gas flow disruptions due to Ukraine’s stealing of Russian gas; the expense for Ukraine’s theft was also placed on Russia’s shoulders alone, while EU denied any responsibility, always siding with Ukraine. It appears Russia/Gazprom feel that enough is enough and that it’s time to cut the Gordian Knot. The fact that Russia now has strategic agreements with Turkey and China helps Russia’s leverage.
3. This is where the economy and geopolitics mix. Russia warned a long time ago that should EU’s behavior not change, there would eventually be more return sanctions. It appears Russia wasn’t kidding!
Recent events, in which Ukraine and certain EU countries acted strangely, to say the least, apparently were the last drop, reinforcing Russia’s intentions. The events I am referring to were: Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk giving multiple interviews and speeches in Germany accusing Russia of attacking the Nazi Germany and Ukraine, while Merkel stood by him, failing to react to the outright lie. The recent Volnovakha, Donbass tragedy in which 10 people died and scores were wounded when a bus with Donetsk pensioners was hit by a bomb or a mine on the Ukraine side. This incident was immediately blamed on the Donbass self-defence. Ukraine tried to get EU to recognize LNR and DNR as terrorist organizations, while designating Russia as the state aiding terrorism, followed by a new round of sanctions. While the resolution failed, another resolution to adopt a new round of anti-Russian sanctions may pass (I don’t have the latest on that). Meanwhile, per reports, US, France and Poland, among others, have agreed to supply advanced arms to Ukraine. In addition, two ships, one from Australia and one from Canada docked in the Odessa port in the past week to two. Each was full of winter uniforms for the Ukraine army. Poroshenko went to Paris to participate in the Unity March together with Merkel and Hollande, as I wrote here, to express solidarity with the victims of the French terrorist acts, while hundreds and thousands were dying at home unnoticed by anyone. Poroshenko’s trip strangely coincided with Yatsenyuk trying to promote Russia as aggressor in Germany and the Volnovakha bus tragedy. Right after returning from France Poroshenko announced three new waves of mobilization to recruit over 200,000 soldiers – we now know that when they re-start the war with Donbass, they’ll be able to kill more efficiently thanks to all those Australian and Canadian uniforms keeping them nice and warm. In the meantime, the bombings of Donbass have intensified by 10-20 times. For the past week or so the number of dead and wounded from Ukraine’s shelling is greater than for the past 3-4 months combined – exact numbers are not known yet, but the preliminary number is 52 dead during the past few days. As a result of Poroshenko’s visit to Paris and the killing of 10 civilians in Volnovakha, the Astana, Kazakhstan peace conference planned for today, January 15, was cancelled. To wrap up the vicious cycle of events, the man who was instrumental in organizing the Astana peace conference was The French president, Hollande. Please refer back to my article: Urgent! Secret Link Between French False Flag Attacks and Ukraine, in which I also said that Hollande was wavering from the party line, trying to play peacemaker, and terror acts in France were meant to remind him to toe the line. Finally, S&P and other Western agencies are set to lower Russia’s rating to junk status: China/Russia to Launch Own Credit Rating Agency to Rival the Big Three.
4. US has been trying to squeeze Russia out of the EU gas market in order to sell to the EU its own, more expensive, shale gas. The shale industry in the US is in difficult circumstances and many fields have been conserved because of low prices and insufficient international demand for the US shale gas. The banks that financed fracking companies are afraid of not getting their money back; many are on the verge of bankruptcy. Obtaining the lucrative EU market is the best thing for the US. Of course the expensive US shale gas will undermine the EU economy, making EU products less competitive, which will help the US economy and keep EU on a short leash for the US purposes. However, building LNG terminals is expensive, they take a lot of valuable space near ports, and it takes time. Such infrastructure isn’t available for the time being. It appears that despite tough talk, EU is ‘stuck’ with cheaper and readily available Russian gas.
5. World Grand-Master Putin at work! Russia’s leverage has increased exponentially from signing strategic mega-deals with China last May and Turkey last December. It appears Putin has decided this was the right time to play one of Russia’s aces; or if you will, to play Russia’s Turkish Gambit!
6. Last fall, when Russia, Ukraine and EU negotiated, EU promised to vouch for Ukraine’s payment for the ongoing supply of Russian gas. In reality, Ukraine never re-paid $3.1 bln in past arrears due before New Year’s. EU also didn’t vouch for Ukraine’s payments past New Year’s. Therefore, any gas Ukraine receives now is unpaid for, which in itself triggers gas supply stoppage.
7. The Ukraine pipeline infrastructure is Soviet built and was never really maintained by Ukraine. It’s either time to fix it, or to abandon it. Perhaps this is the right time to abandon what cannot be fixed – and I am speaking broadly. Ukraine and EU’s behavior have gone far beyond any permissible or even conceivable. The way Ukraine and EU behave towards Russia can be expressed by the following Russian sayings: ‘to spit into a well from which you drink’ and ‘to saw off the branch you are sitting on.’ It appears that with those who don’t understand good will, reason or logic the only way is the way of an ultimatum.
This is all for now. Till any new info appears…
I am trying to complete my Earth Shift Report. Talk soon.
ADDED 1/17/15. Read new article: Confusion Clarification: Is Russia Stopping EU Gas Transit Through Ukraine?
EARTH SHIFT REPORT update:
1. Grand Experiment Novorossia and the Birth of the New Revolutionary Monetary System.
2. Ruble Wars as the Beginning of the Death of the Dollar.
These two reports are being written as we speak and I will be posting them as they get completed.
The reports will be posted on my new site LadaRay.info. Stay tuned!
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Ohhh…seriously, I am getting a tiny bit tired reiterating time after time: ‘I TOLD YOU SO!’ From the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, in my articles about Ukraine, Germany and German Chancellor Merkel, I said time and again that Ukraine would never be admitted into the EU – and forget NATO. That US would try to push Ukraine’s memberships through, with no result whatsoever, except creating more animosity and crisis on European continent, which in fact is their goal to begin with. As usual, see much more in PREDICTIONS and related articles below.
I also said that after yelling and screaming (and sanctions), EU will cool off eventually and recall that really, truly, honestly…they want to be friends with Russia. Interesting how it happens every time the heating season starts in earnest.
On referenced video (watch on YT in Russian) – German Vice Chancellor Zigmar Gabriel: ‘Germany will never allow Ukraine to be admitted into NATO. US has been putting pressure on Germany, but on the Federal level at least such decision will not pass as this would destabilize the situation even further. Germany needs to do what Austria is suggesting – engage new channels for negotiations with Russia. Internal Ukraine conflict is aggravated by Ukraine’s conflict with Russia. Ukraine’s internal conflict cannot be solved without solving a conflict with Russia. It seems to me that we all in Europe, Germany can’t do it alone, have to formulate a new policy towards Russia. We are not giving up on the idea of a European Russia. We have to be united in this and we are very interested in Russia being a part of Europe. We can’t afford Europe’s division because of the Russia issue.’
Why has this statement from German VC appeared now? Division within Merkel’s ruling party? Are her own people angry at her? Perhaps to a degree. I’d be, if I were them. But even more so, I think these are the true underlying reasons:
1. Note, this statement is by Merkel’s underling. Merkel is on the hook with NSA, who have massive dirt on her after listening in on her phone conversations. This keeps her on a short leash. I wrote about that issue in a couple of earlier articles. This is why Merkel suddenly stopped demanding that German gold held (or rather, that ‘used to be held’) at the NY FED be repatriated. Besides, Merkel has already made so many aggressive and threatening remarks about Russia that she couldn’t possibly switch to a conciliatory tone – you need a fresh face to make a statement such as this.
2. Clearly, winter is upon us and all of a sudden Germany remembered why they need to try to be friends with Russia. That’s right, Gazprom and Russian gas.
3. Not only the population, but also German business class is rebelling. Merkel, reportedly is ‘tired of receiving calls from industrialists asking her to reverse anti-Russian sanctions.’
A few days ago a curious news crossed the wires. One of the prominent German industrialists who was a long-time donor of Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Union, announced he was forming a group of industrialists who would stop supporting Merkel and CDU and would instead invest in the opposition.
4. Ukraine in today’s configuration and with this government is a loose cannon, whose only desire and goal is siphoning as much money as possible from the EU and the West in general (since Russia refused to subsidize it any more), while Ukraine oligarchs, armed thugs and politicians continue the wholesale demolition and looting of the economy. The biggest donor to Ukraine would be Germany. For terrified Germany (and EU) Ukraine is becoming a financial weight that is dragging them to the bottom.
To me this outcome was clear from the beginning – question is, why wasn’t it clear to EU politicians? Those who haven’t yet, may want to check out: FREE Earth Shift Report 2: Ukraine, Russia and Falsified History.
5. EU today cannot exist peacefully and prosperously without good relations with Russia. Unfortunately, EU politicians are too slow or too sold-out to grasp any of this. They only start seeing the light when crisis is staring them personally in the eye. In my new video ProjectEarthShift 1:Universal Scale of Consciousness (life-diminishing calibrations 0-199) I explain how this works. The example I provide is Angela Merkel. Her calibration is 184 – the level of pride. On this level people (and countries) are so self-centered and so egotistical that they start acting only when there is a threat to their own stability. They are utterly disinterested in truth, justice and saving or helping others. Their moral and truth compass is so off that they see black as white and vice versa, until it hurts them personally.
There are a few politicians in the West that are different, one of them being Milos Zeman, President of the Czech Republic, who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. Read: Desperate Obama, A Voice of Sanity from Czechia and Anti-Russian Sanctions. There are sane politicians in Germany too. They speak up against this madness, which only benefits the Anglo-American elites. Incidentally, it has been shown time and again by honest German journalists that German MSM is in bed with the US, doing their bidding by spreading propaganda.
By contrast, see what the world looks like, and what can be accomplished, when people calibrate at life-affirming levels: ProjectEarthShift 2: Universal Scale of Consciousness (life-affirming/ life-creating calibrations 200-1000).
6. The division and rebellion within the EU is growing. Czech and Hungarian leaders are making statements of dissent. Austria isn’t happy about sanctions. Finland said: don’t even come to us with sanctions any more. Greece, Italy and Spain are trying to quietly, on country to country level, circumvent sanctions. Serbia (non-EU, but being dragged in) said they were being pressured to join sanctions, but they wouldn’t.
7. And how do you like this precious latest bit! I seriously think you couldn’t invent it if you tried! Turns out the reason France couldn’t deliver the Mistral carriers to Russia, thus incurring billions in penalties and contract losses, as well as a loss of business credibility and future deals with Russia, is because POLAND leaned on France and made them forfeit. This incredible bit of news was confirmed by the Russian newscast Vesti on Channel 1 Russia. Is it because Poland is now so strong, or is it because France is becoming so weak? Recently, France had to swallow the insult from the US, when US fined BNP Paribas close to $10 bln for violating US sanctions. As my readers know, I call Poland one of the ‘US Trojan Horses in Europe.’
This is what a catastrophic loss of sovereignty looks like! It is when a country formerly considered one of the Great Powers would sacrifice national interests to please its boss. De Gaulle isn’t just turning – he is spinning in his grave. France is made to be an example and a warning for others. All this is being closely observed, and the alarm bells are going off in all EU capitals.
8. And here is the final, and very strong, worry for Germany and EU. They see that Russia is successfully pivoting to the EAST, again as I predicted from the beginning. Read more in Predictions and related articles. Since February-March, 2014 I said that ‘if Russians feel even slightly inconvenienced by sanctions, off to the East they go.’ Since then we saw Russia sign massive deals with China, Central Asian countries, Iran, South American countries. I also have predicted that EU will start experiencing gas shortages after Russia transitions to the new markets. This is confirmed by the latest news:
Just in! While in negotiations with Turkish President Erdogan, Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia withdraws from the South Stream project, which would supply gas directly to Europe bypassing Ukraine (also as predicted: I said, I believe in March, that South Stream wasn’t important to Russia any more and that she didn’t care if it continued or not). Putin announced together with Erdogan that instead, Russia will concentrate on expanding the gas pipeline to Turkey and in creating in Turkey and Greece an international gas hub for further gas deliveries elsewhere. Putin specifically said that if Europe isn’t interested in Russian gas, it will be sold to other countries, hinting at future gas shortages for the EU.
The above breaking news is noteworthy. I will either have a separate article about that, or I will include this in my upcoming THE PUTIN ENIGMA Report.
THE PUTIN ENIGMA REPORT IS COMING SOON.
I AM PRESENTLY WORKING ON IT, BUT WITH MANY OTHER THINGS GOING ON IN LIFE AND THE WORLD, IT IS TAKING ME A LITTLE LONGER TO COMPLETE. I WANT TO DO A VERY THOROUGH JOB. THE REPORT WILL DELVE BOTH INTO GEOPOLITICS AND INTO SOME VERY INTERESTING METAPHYSICS AND HIGHER REALMS.
IF YOU DON’T SEE ME ON THE BLOG FOR A FEW DAYS, IT MEANS I AM WORKING ON THE REPORT.
STAY TUNED! IT’S WORTH IT!
You can also find my predictions in:
Interview with predictions: The Road to Moscow Goes Through Kiev