Explosive Consequences of Putin-Erdogan St.Petersburg Meeting and Earth Shifting Changes it Foretells!
Addendum to ESR13: ERDOGAN’S WAR
EXPLOSIVE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 8/9/16 PUTIN-ERDOGAN MEETING IN ST. PETERSBURG
& THE EARTH SHIFTING CHANGES IT FORETELLS!
Putin and Erdogan met in St. Petersburg on August 9, 2016. The meeting followed the failed Turkish coup and an equally failed double attack by Ukraine on Crimea, which occurred between 5 and 7 of August. Erdogan made sure he emphasized that Russia was the first country he visited after surviving the coup. This is diplomatic speak to underline the special importance of said country.
Just prior to the meeting, Erdogan threatened to boot out US military from Turkish NATO bases and instead, let the Russians use them. A turnaround especially stunning, considering Turkey’s long-standing NATO membership and the 2015 story with Turkey shooting down the Russian Su24 and killing the Russian pilot.
Throughout ESR13, you have read all about these developments, complete with my secret intel, theories and revelations. When I released ESR13 on August 8 just before the Putin-Erdogan meeting, I also explained the staggeringly important role this meeting and Turkey-Russia negotiations would play in the ongoing Earth Shift (also see TRENDS & PREDICTIONS). Changes of great magnitude are afoot, and Erdogan-Putin meeting is one of the harbingers.
In this addendum I will tell you what really happened during the Erdogan-Putin meeting.
Erdogan repeatedly called Putin ‘esteemed Vladimir’ or ‘esteemed Russian President Putin,’ which is a very Middle Eastern way of offering an olive branch and underscoring how important the counterpart is to you. Putin, as far as I could tell, echoed that just once with ‘esteemed President Erdogan.’ No first name basis here.
In the report I predicted that Russia would be cautious with Turkey after the Su24 incident. The signal on the Turkish side was very clear: ‘we very much want to make up and be in good graces again.’ On the Russian side: ‘sure, we are all for it, and here are our immediate signs of good will, but other than that, we’ll see how you behave going forward, shall we?’
Before departing to Russia for the meeting, Erdogan made an announcement that much time was lost and that Turkey was eager to get back on track with two extremely important projects: Turkish Stream and Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.
The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (Turkish: Akkuyu Nükleer Enerji Santrali) is a nuclear power plant under construction at Akkuyu, in Büyükeceli, Mersin Province, Turkey. It will be the country’s first nuclear power plant. In May 2010, Russia and Turkey signed an agreement that a subsidiary of Rosatom — Akkuyu NGS Elektrik Uretim Corp. (APC: Akkuyu Project Company) — would build, own, and operate a power plant at Akkuyu comprising four 1,200 MW VVER units. Engineering and survey work started at the site in 2011. The construction of the first unit was to begin in 2016, with the four units put into service in 2022–25. In 2013, Russian nuclear construction company Atomstroyexport (ASE) and Turkish construction company Ozdogu signed the site preparation contract. The official launch ceremony took place in April 2015.
In ESR13 we discussed the mis-adventures of South Stream and Turkish Stream, along with reasons why it was so important for the US and Germany to sabotage them.
Akkuyu is a somewhat different story. Russians gave Turkey an amazing deal as part of the pre-2015 push to get Turkey on the Russian side and away from US influence. Part of the deal was that Russia would finance and build the power plant, with profits for its exploitation deferred for a number of years. The deal was an absolute windfall for Turkey, which would greatly reduce, or eliminate all-together the long-standing energy shortage basically for free. Then Turkish treacherous actions took place, including ISIS/Daesh help and the shooting down of Su24. Throughout the meeting, Erdogan kept referring to it as ‘the unfortunate event.’
Erdogan and other Turkish officials/businesspeople arriving to Russia all confirmed how eager they were to restart both Akkuyu, whose construction was supposed to begin in 2016, and Turkish Stream. Too much time has been lost, Erdogan kept repeating like a mantra.
In other words, they acted exactly as I predicted. Meanwhile, Russia also acted as I predicted: willingly, but cautiously.
Russians agreed to restart the Akkuyu project. A large part of the negotiations was behind the closed doors, to avoid various sabotage attempts from the same parties that organized Su24 downing and the Turkish coup. I am sure many details of various deals will never be announced before the deals actually materialize into reality. However, the general intel I have received is that Russians have renegotiated the earlier deals in a more beneficial way, since Turkey came back in a greatly weakened position.
Turkey is equally eager to get back on track with Turkish Stream. “We lost a lot of time” was repeated over and over in a somewhat contrite (amazing for a Muslim country) manner. Turkey underscored how much they wanted to get back to the lucrative international project Russians practically gifted to them in 2015.
However, that’s when a bucket of cold water was dumped on Turkey. Putin has re-affirmed that Russia remained committed to Turkish Stream, but only if and when Turkey obtains written legal guarantees from the EU that Europe wants Russian gas arriving via Turkish Stream and that EU cooperation is forthcoming.
Russia has also confirmed that they will restart Turkish Stream where it concerns Turkish internal gas supply only. In other words, for now the project is scaled down to the bilateral Russia-Turkey pipeline. Turkey, as I pointed out in previous ESRs, is suffering from energy shortages and high consumer energy prices. This includes electric power, as well as fuel for heating and cooking – many still use wood-burning and very polluting old-fashioned stoves, even in big centers such as Istanbul and Ankara. Therefore, it’s a necessary project, but not of the scale and scope that was initially intended. However, the same surveys and foundation used for Turkish pipe can be used later to expand it to continue to Europe, when the landscape changes. And it will change.
Additionally, it’s actually good to advertize officially the scaled down version of the project – this may, at least in part, discourage future attacks by the US. It’s a hybrid war and rule number 1 is: don’t advertize your moves to the enemy.
As I explained in ESR13 above, the sabotage of South Stream, and later of Turkish Stream, were necessary to delay the breakup of the predatory US Empire. South Stream – Turkish Stream would give a lot more sovereignty to Southern and Central Europe, leading to the weakening of the EU with subsequent breakup, and in turn, weakening US positions.
And another breaking news! As Turkey was proclaiming how eager they were to restart Turkish Stream, Bulgaria suddenly announced that they have again changed their minds and were now ready to host South Stream (read the entire story of Bulgaria’s flip-flop and South Stream sabotage in ESR13 and in ESR7: The battle for Eurasia! TURKISH CONUNDRUM). In other words, suddenly there is eager competition between countries to host Russian pipelines. Add to that Germany and Nord Stream 2. The healthy competition is very good, and it will push one of these projects through that much faster. I already told you in ESR13 which project it will be…
Here are two important questions for you to consider, which, once answered, will reveal the true meaning of this big geopolitical game. They’ll explain why ukro-nazi coup in Ukraine had to be executed, why Su24 had to be shot down and why Turkey, EU and Russia had to be kept as enemies:
1. Why is suddenly Bulgaria so brave and wants back into the Russian gas game, after having chickened out the moment Uncle Sam said ‘No’?
2. What will happen to Ukraine after all these projects go through and its old Soviet pipeline becomes obsolete?
1. Make no mistake: Bulgaria really wanted to host the very lucrative South Stream and its refusal to do so is due only to its absolute lack of any sovereignty. Bulgaria is suddenly so brave because this is election time in the US. At this time, US is distracted with the elections and the sell-out Bulgarian government thinks they could sneak in South Stream unnoticed. But just think how puppet and spineless it really is if a simple visit by John McCain had previously put a stop to South Stream. I think South Stream is still preferred, and I can see that Russians may be thinking along the same lines. But its continuation may only be possible when this puppet government is replaced with a very different, sovereignty-minded type of government. Due to the nature of Bulgaria as an extremely apathetic and inertia-ridden state, this will take a while.
2. After pipelines bypassing Ukraine are built, Ukraine will stop having as much value to the US and they’ll drop it as a hot potato, which in turn will cause the bandit regime of ukro-nazi Kiev junta and its pro-US oligarchic clan to implode. This will free up the genuine forces of liberation and Ukraine will make a swift turnaround towards its historic, political and economic ties with Russia. The problem with the territory we presently refer to as Ukraine is that it is an intrinsic part of the Russian World that was successfully infected with a virus of hatred towards everything Russian. Ukraine was targeted specifically because Russians never concealed how important Ukraine was to Russia. The US/West’s logic: If Ukraine is that important, then it is necessary to tear it away. This was why the 2014 Kiev coup was necessary from USA’s standpoint.
One of the major difficulties of dealing with Ukraine’s situation for Russia right now is the fact that the all-Russian/Soviet infrastructure was built as one system, spanning all ex-republics. Therefore, Russian gas pipeline to the EU ran through Ukraine, delivering at its height up to 70% of Russian gas to Europe. Now it’s down to 25% or so. This was a major pressure point against Russia throughout 2000s. You may remember the sudden gas stoppages as a result of Ukraine’s sabotage and stealing of European gas. The manipulation of Russia by the US and various anti-Russian interests through the Ukraine pipe reached staggering proportions, culminating in the 2014 coup.
Therefore, getting the pipe away from Ukraine is a blessing for all: Russia, EU and Ukraine, as well. Ukraine, or what’s left of it, will finally be left alone and allowed to rebuild itself (probably as several separate states and territories associated with Russia).
Therefore, one way or another, more pipelines bypassing Ukraine will be built no matter what. The only question is which countries will end up benefiting from the pipeline going through their territory. This will be determined by how quick on their feet and cooperative these countries are, plus, how smart and sovereign they are. As I said, I know which pipeline will be built first – and it’s all in the report!
In addition to all the above, Turkey continued asking for Russia to remove bans on tourism, air traffic, Turkish agricultural produce imports and Turkish construction companies working in Russia. Turkey made a killing in these areas and Russian money really supported Turkish economy, until Russia put the bans in place following the downing of the Su24.
Russians promised that they would be removing bans little by little. Read: depending on how you behave, we’ll see what we can do. For the time being the tourism ban has been removed and charter flights to Turkey may be resumed soon. However, the terrorist warning for Turkey is still in place and only the most brave dare to go there. Russians aren’t in a hurry to let construction and produce imports back in: they’ll give more time for domestic companies to strengthen and take bigger share of the market.
Unthinkable just recently: Turkey-Russia cooperation in Syria!
After the meeting with ‘esteemed Vladimir’ Erdogan announced that Turkey is inviting Russia to fight jointly against ISIS/Daesh in Syria. This is yet another move by Turkey to spite US and NATO, following earlier threats to boot US troops out of Turkish bases, and after a clash with Germany.
This is a staggering, unthinkable just recently announcement! After all, Turkey just recently helped ISIS/Al-Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood terrorists and Syria/Assad has been Erdogan/Turkey’s mortal enemy. Read all about that in ESR7: TURKISH CONUNDRUM.
We may soon hear announcements about certain Russia-Turkey joint missions. In my view, Russia will continue being cautious with involving Turkish militarily, until they are sure they can trust them. However, getting Turkey on Russia’s side in Syria and Black Sea vicinity – and on these new, more favorable to Russia conditions – is a huge, huge, HUGE win.
It’s also a HUGE humiliation and loss of face for the US. It has already, and it will continue leading to the weakening of the US and NATO.
We should expect Turkey cooperating with Russia in shutting down its border to Syrian terrorist supplies, oil, money and weapon smuggling. We can also expect better cooperation in securing Black Sea, such as not allowing certain US military ships through and cooperating in allowing faster passage for Russian ships through the straits. All these are still stop-gap measures. As I explained in the report, the issue of Black Sea and Straits has to be resolved in principle: all outsider military ships (read: US military ships, since no other outside country does that) have to be banned from entering. Only the military ships of countries bordering Black Sea should be allowed in Black Sea.
The extreme value of Black Sea, and therefore, the frantic activity around it, is due to one factor only: it is the soft and vulnerable underbelly of Russia. Therefore, surrounding Russia with unfriendly regimes has been US/UK strategy for hundreds of years. I explained how it all works in ESR8: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
The value and relative vulnerability of Crimea is derived directly from the same. The recent attack by Ukraine on Crimea is correlated with the rest of the events we’ve talked about. I am preparing a new Earth Shift Report, which will address the recent attacks on Crimea, why they happened and why now, who benefits, how it will impact Ukraine’s future, how US elections may be impacted, and whether Russia will sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine. We’ll also discuss the future of Crimea. Expect the new ESR: THE CRIMEA FACTOR in August 2016.
Keeping up with pretenses, the US State Dept announced that they were not bothered by Turkish cooperation with Russia at all, and that ‘US strategy in Syria didn’t change.’ However, that is not because US feels just fine about Turkish move. If it were up to them, Erdogan would be dead right this moment and pro-US Turkish generals would be in power. It’s simply because they are out of options. This is a serious defeat for the US Empire.
That said, US won’t leave Turkey alone. It will attempt more coups, terror acts, etc. Same goes for Russia. And remember, Russian elections are coming. Moreover, US elections have a direct bearing on all these events as well. How? Stay tuned for new Earth Shift Reports, in which all this will be revealed!
Why Putin chose to meet with Erdogan not in Moscow but in St. Petersburg
Perhaps very subtly, this is also a message. St. Petersburg was once founded by Peter the Great as then landlocked Russian Empire’s first serious international port in the Baltic Sea, designed for the new Western-prevalence era of 17th -20th centuries (in prior millennium, the ancient Rus peoples, with their multiple centers of influence, of course, had various ports on different continents). Peter called the St. Pete port: ‘a window to Europe.’
The new strategy of the US/West has been to shut and bolt down this window to Western Europe, creating a New Iron Curtain from Baltic to Black Sea via a cordon of unfriendly to Russia regimes. It was a partial success, with Romania, 3 ex-Soviet Baltic mini-states and Poland joining the cordon. A snag happened in the middle of the Baltic-Black Sea Iron Curtain, when Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary wisely decided to stay neutral to kind-of-friendly to Russia. It also turned out that converting Belarus into anti-Russia didn’t work no matter what. But Ukraine became the clincher. After 2004 color revolution, only a partial success was achieved. In 2014 the success was complete with a total Ukraine subversion. Turkey and Bulgaria were also supposed to be part of the Iron Curtain. Bulgaria turned reluctantly, only with a partial success, while Turkey refused to be easy.
The grand total of this entire scheme is that the Iron Curtain isn’t working as well as the Transatlantic masters want it to work. Moreover, it is so shaky it may just topple any moment at one’s slight touch. The most important factor in the unreliability of this flimsy Iron Curtain is that Russia/Putin refused to play by West’s rules and began creating their own rules, thus changing the reality around them and beginning to fulfill Russia’s true destiny as the Great Global Balancer and Stabilizer.
Therefore, we see a signal, which, it appears, few have understood: Turkish president Erdogan, who was supposed to be responsible for locking down the Black Sea end of the Iron Curtain, meets Putin in his native city of St. Petersburg, the place where Russia’s biggest Baltic Sea ports are, often called ‘Russia’s window to Europe.’ In the more modern terms: Nord Stream 2 is to be laid through the bottom of Baltic Sea; Turkish Stream – through Black Sea.
Consequently, the recipient is known and the message is: ‘The New Iron Curtain has failed.’
P.S. Why following Erdogan’s visit Putin met with Armenian president
On August 10, one day after the breakthrough meeting with Erdogan, Vladimir Putin received president of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan. As I also said in the above report, on August 8, one day before Erdogan, Putin met in Azerbaijan with Iranian and Azeri presidents.
As usual, nothing happens by accident in the global chess game. Armenia and Turkey are mortal enemies. So are Iran and Turkey. Azerbaijan and Armenia, unfortunately, are also enemies, with continuing armed conflicts. All these mutual animosities are used by outside forces to manipulate various countries against each other and to destabilize the region. By contrast, Russia’s goal as the Global Balancer, is to stabilize and harmonize the region and the whole planet.
By meeting with Armenian leader right after all others, the relative closeness of the EAEU member Armenia to Russia is underscored. A signal is sent that Russia’s deals with Turkey or Azerbaijan do not mean Russia has forgotten her ally Armenia. At the same time, by meeting neck to neck with leaders of all these rival countries, Putin sends a signal of cooperation and unification to all of them.
‘It’s much better to cooperate and get along’ is Russia’s message. Enough with the archaic ‘divide and conquer,’ used by the US Empire. A better way, based on cooperation and mutually beneficial, peaceful relations, is shown by Russia. The world is tired of wars and people aren’t blind. They can see that Russia is the only country that can unite – as opposed to divide – various countries.
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As we know, Greece is in technical default on its 1.5 bln euro payment to the IMF/EU creditors. Experts tell us that this could snowball, with Greece going into default on all its debt, which is over $350 bln. If Greece defaults on its entire debt obligation, it will send huge shocks through the world financial system and will seriously undermine Eurozone and Germany.
This is why Greece’s negotiation position isn’t that hopeless. They have aces up their sleeve. EU can’t afford Greece’s total default, neither can it really afford Grexit. US cannot afford Greek default either, because it can signal the beginning of the end of the whole dollar-based empire.
The national referendum announced by the ruling Syriza party on the future of Greece is to take place on July 5th. Greek PM Tsipras urges people to vote ‘no’ to creditor demands, in order to improve his negotiating position.
My prediction: The Greek referendum will deliver the majority NO vote to austerity and creditor demands.
The fact that creditors didn’t give an extension to Greece so people could vote, instead squeezing the country on June 30th, is very telling. I wonder, what happened to the supposed ‘democracy’ the West is so proud of? How democratic is it to sabotage the Greek national referendum – a true voice of the people?
First, it’s clear double standards: Greece, a member of the EU, is treated as an unloved, unwanted child by the EU and IMF. IMF, of course, represents the interests of the US and EU, where US rules supreme.
At the same time, IMF’s Christine Lagarde tells us that Ukraine, not a member of the EU, will continue receiving IMF loan tranches, even if it defaults on sovereign debt it owes Russia. This is in direct violation of the IMF laws.
So, the West is now in violation of both self-professed cornerstones of its society: democracy and law.
Do you know how empires die? That’s how – they implode on themselves, confused and in denial. We are observing a slow disintegration of the Western (US-EU) empire. This is the time when only the blind and the unscrupulous don’t see that the king is naked.
Second, and most importantly, the difference in position on Ukraine and Greece by the IMF and EU is clearly geopolitical in nature and has absolutely nothing to do with economy. The common denominator in both is the country’s relationship with Russia.
The present Kiev junta in Ukraine is supported because it’s at loggerheads with Russia, yelling and screaming on every corner that Russia attacked them. No one believes that, but this narrative is diligently parroted by the Western MSM, nevertheless.
This has to be expected, if whistleblower journalists from countries such as Ukraine and Germany come out with revelations that they are given the text of what to say in their reports – a text written at the US embassy – and told not to deviate from it. A well-known Kiev journalist Oles’ Buzina was recently killed after the publicly revealed that his publication was forced to print false information based on the US embassy in Kiev script. German whistleblower journalists who have revealed that the entire journalism profession in Germany is sold-out to the US, doing only USA’s bidding, are forced to go into hiding because of threats.
Greece is shunned and squeezed because it dares to have good relations with Russia, speak up against anti-Russian sanctions and participate in Turkish Stream project.
I talked about the geopolitics and economics of Turkish Stream in my previous episode: Macedonia Coup Attempt – War Against Russia & China (LadaRayLive 12).
GREEK DEFAULT AND GREXIT PREDICTIONS
You know my prediction about Greece: it will exit the EU by 2017. In my original prediction, which you can find in Secret Connection: Russian Gas to Turkey-Greek Election-EU Breakup (LadaRayLive 6) and my FT articles, I said that the reason it will take some time is because the relationship with the EU is so complex that it will take some time to untangle.
We already see that the energy is moving in the direction of Grexit. But it won’t happen yet. Greece and EU will be delaying it for now. The most important mark for Grexit will be the completion of Turkish Stream. Grexit will happen close to that date – this is the date to watch!
Of course, due to the importance of Turkish Stream for so many reasons, it will be sabotaged by the US, EU and Germany. It will be a difficult going, as I said in the previous episode. But it will be done.
From this perspective, it’s more beneficial for Greece and all other parties involved, including Russia, if Greece agrees to certain conditions by creditors and stays low for now. Direct confrontation with the EU will only make them sabotage Turkish Stream more forcefully.
For now, Greek debt will have to be a compromise, where EU will give some and Greece will, too. There is indication that that’s what Greek PM Tsipras is doing.
To conclude: will eventual Grexit cause a domino effect all over the EU? Yes, it would. However, it won’t be fast. I see it as a slow and gradual process, taking years and lots of negotiations.
For the next few years, the make-or-break moments of reckoning to watch are: completion of Nord Stream-2, Turkish Stream, discontinuing of gas transit to EU via Ukraine, and a change of power in Ukraine, accompanied with gradual weakening of the US. The timeline for all this is 2016-2019, with most events taking place between 2017-2019. US weakening will continue after 2019.
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P.S. I’ll be taking a few days off this weekend to meditate and relax (I’ll be checking in for emails and comments). Have a great weekend, all! See you next week!
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On video’s image: Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2015 (SPIEF 2015) in St. Petersburg, Russia, June 19, 2015
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A Latvian politician and member of Europarliament has told me that he recalls how several years ago any session of the EU-Russia Europarliament Commission would be packed because of the overwhelming interest in doing business with Russia. Everyone understood: that’s where the opportunity was. At the same time, sessions of the US-EU Commission would barely have a few people attending. Those days several years ago now seem to the EU like another lifetime. Events in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions changed perceptions and put a visible wedge between Russia and EU – a setback used by the US to continue pushing EU to accept the increase in its military presence, its LNG shale gas and its secret Transatlantic Trade Agreement.
I know what US apologists both sides of the Atlantic will say: it’s the EU people who demand our increased military presence, shale gas and Transatlantic Trade Agreement. I suppose the EU people also demand that NSA wiretap their presidents and business elites, along with every citizen. I suppose the EU people also demand to be robbed blind.
Seemingly, US can celebrate a victory. Seemingly, they have achieved their goals. However, per my 2014 predictions, this victory will be short-lived, followed by a huge reversal.
The top event of last week was the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, yet what happened there went almost unnoticed in the manipulated Western media, busy covering up the new French NSA spying scandal with a fresh dollop of Russia-bashing. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the moment the news that NSA spied on three French presidents broke up, French papers filled with anti-Russian propaganda, blaming Russia for not observing the Minsk peace agreements. Similar thing happened in Germany, where the public is still reeling from last year’s massive NSA spying scandal. Obviously, the news filled with bad Russia and bad Putin, their convenient boogeyman, are meant to distract from the real news.
It should now be clear beyond the shadow of a doubt who controls ALL of the world’s media, except some news outlets in Russia, China and a few other countries. The fact that French and German media immediately jumped to protect their real Transatlantic employer once the scandal against such employer broke out – speaks volumes. The prime directive of the Western MSM is to divert the sheeple’s attention and pull the wool over their eyes every time their puppeteer is in trouble.
What happened in St. Pete was sensational, and therefore, it should have been the stuff of front pages. Instead, it was shyly relegated to the back pages, or avoided altogether.
But at the same time as US and Brussels continued selling their naive populace the stale story of Russia’s isolation – and Russian aggression – a virtual fight over who would become a bigger and better partner for Russian gas transit was taking place in St. Petersburg.
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In light of what’s happening in Greece, what’s especially interesting is this: Greek PM Tsipras neglected his scheduled meeting with EU leaders, in which he was supposed to negotiate his country’s crucial pre-default debt restructuring. Instead, he chose to come to St. Pete, where he signed a $2 bln joint venture for building the Greek leg of Turkish Stream to southeastern Europe.
Nord Stream-2: Analysis and Prediction
Less noticed and very under-the-wraps was another mega-deal: potentially even bigger than Turkish Stream. During the St. Petersburg Forum Germany and Russia agreed to build Nord Stream-2, to deliver gas across the bottom of the Baltic Sea directly to Germany, for further distribution throughout the EU. Nord Stream-1 consisted of two branches and cost 8.5 bln euro. Nord Stream-2 will add two more branches, for a total of four, and will cost 9.9 bln euro.
Nord Stream – Rusian gas goes directly to Germany via Baltic Sea
The new pipeline will go on top of the existing Nord Stream. This means that, due to the same footprint, Nord Stream-2 won’t need to go through a very grueling and lengthy approval process with Euro Commission and deal with objections by all countries bordering the Baltic Sea. With German discipline and profit motivation, expect Nord Stream-2 to be built in record time.
Therefore, while Germany is making all kinds of public anti-Russian noises, it’s quietly making serious strides to fortify and expand business with Russia. However, make no mistake! Russian gas transit to the EU is as much in the realm of politics and geopolitics, as in the realm of business. I will illustrate that below.
Nord Stream-2 capacity will rival the current Ukraine pipeline capacity. Russia already announced that the aging Ukraine pipeline will be eventually phased out due to the political instability and inflexible position of the Ukraine government. In short, Russia won’t be held hostage to the whims of Kiev. Nord Stream-2 agreement means Germany is making a decisive move to take away gas transit business from Ukraine.
This led some to speculate that Germany facilitated the 2014 coup in Kiev on purpose: to create an impossible situation for the Russian gas transit through Ukraine, thus making Russian gas transit business its own. I won’t categorically agree or disagree with this opinion, and here is why. There is some logic to it. Germany and other strong EU economies were always worried about the insecure Ukraine gas route. Taking steps to ensure one’s country’s energy security are natural and expected. Still, at least in part, Germany is not initiating but rather responding to various threats, acting to secure gas supply route and quantities for itself and its close allies in northern and central Europe. Germany, of all countries, is able to use its considerable European pull to secure a fast construction of the new pipeline – and it’s doing it.
Is Germany making big anti-Russian noises to appease and fool the US, while behind the scenes making deals with Russia? Here is what I see: I do think Germany is continuing clumsy attempts to sit on two chairs, playing both Russia and US, in the hopes of wiggling its way out of unfavorable agreements with the US, while keeping the door to Russian business semi-open with one foot. It’s some fancy acrobatics, to be sure, and it does look desperate. Germany and German allies – in other words, the strongest northern and central EU economies – see the writing on the wall and they don’t want to be caught in the upcoming Ukraine/US fallout. They are also rushing to secure Russian gas agreements while they still can.
Turkish Stream Prediction
It’ll be somewhat harder for Turkey, Greece and Italy to push the Turkish Stream construction through. Their pull isn’t as hefty as Germany’s and the pressure on them will be significant both from the US and EU.
But my confident prediction is this: unlike the botched South Stream project, which relied on the weak key transiter, Bulgaria, the Turkish Stream project will be accomplished successfully. The reason is that Turkey is much stronger than Bulgaria as a key transiter. Greece (key transiter 2) will be fine as well, as long as it remains steadfast. This will be a tall order, but Greeks are fighters and they can do it.
The Myth of the United EU and NATO: Geopolitical and Economic Rivalries Explosion
What many are missing is that Germany and Greece are acting here as direct rivals. Germany wants to keep all of Russian gas under its control, in order to then distribute it to all of the EU, thus keeping its control over Eurozone. Meantime, for Greece their participation in the Turkish Stream and association with Russia is a terrific negotiation ploy and additional leverage in their fight for independence against the EU, IMF and German dictate. To top it off, Russian partnership is a lifesaver for the fledgling Greek economy.
As such, Germany sees Greek revolt as a challenge to their EU power and hegemony. From this it’s easily understood that Germany and Brussels would try to undermine and sabotage Greece and other countries who are participating in Turkish Stream.
US will also try to sabotage it for both geopolitical reasons and for their own economic reasons. US wants to sell its shale gas to the EU. Its dream is to push Russia out as the primary gas supplier to the EU, taking Russia’s place and, therefore, binding the EU to itself not just militarily and economically, but also energy-wise.
Consequently, the fight between Greece and EU/Germany we are presently observing is much more than a fight for Greece’s debt restructuring. It’s also beyond the projected Grexit. It’s about distribution of Russian gas and future control of European energy security.
When Bulgaria’s puppet government foolishly refused to allow South Stream through its territory, loosing potential billions in future profits, Turkish Stream was born. It will go through the bottom of the Black Sea, using Russian waters, a small stretch of international waters and Turkish waters. Then, it will go through the northwestern-most part of Turkish territory, with branch-outs to supply large parts of Turkey with Russian gas. Why is it important that it only goes through the northwestern part of Turkey? This is the quietest and most prosperous part of Turkey. The east and south are restive and volatile, with Kurdish and Syria-related unrest.
But Turkey isn’t a member of the EU. Turkish Stream will get to the border with Greece at which point Greece will take over the pipeline for further distribution to other EU countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan sign the Turkish Stream deal
As we see, Greece/Turkey and Germany are now in direct competition for the exceedingly lucrative Russian gas venture. Therefore, the fight between them is also the fight for future control and profits.
Putin’s Gambit: the all-around win for Russia
We spoke on many prior occasions about how Putin works. Sometimes, it appears he doesn’t respond directly to various threats and adversarial actions by the US, Kiev junta and EU, instead, he takes his time and acts asymmetrically, when he is ready. And every time Russia acts, it’s an unexpected and pretty crushing move. This is why they call Putin the Grand Chess Master.
Nord Stream-2 partner is the No. 1 German energy giant E.On, as well as Shell (Dutch-British) and other German companies, such as OMV and Wintershall. It is understood that such companies wouldn’t commit to Nord Stream-2 without securing a serious backing of the German government. It is also a given that Nord Stream-2 will be pushed through by Germany in record time. In fact, it will be built faster than Turkish Stream.
This puts fire under Turkey. The thing is that after the Turkish Stream deal was signed by Erdogan, he imagined himself in the driver seat. He began looking for more preferences, playing on the Crimean Tartar controversy and delaying the approval for the engineering survey of the pipeline route. Immediately after the Nord Stream-2 deal was signed, the Italian engineering survey vessel, which was sitting in the Bulgarian port of Burgas waiting for Turkey’s permission to enter the Black Sea for six months, was finally allowed to start work. Erdogan also changed his tack on a number of other issues.
Recall what I once said before: Erdogan and Turkey are attempting to play their own game in the Middle East and southeastern Europe, not always successfully and not always nicely. However, on balance Turkey is still a strong and convenient ally for the Turkish Stream and various other projects, for a variety of reasons – from geopolitical, to psychological and economic. For one, Erdogan is pissed at the US, EU and NATO, and two, he wants gasification of his country, whose archaic coal-based system is in desperate need of replacement with clean modern energy.
Therefore, Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream are in direct competition. This is excellent, as it will finally balance the situation with Russian gas supply to the EU, which has become precariously imbalanced after Ukraine, and sometimes Belarus, began playing blackmail games. The result was that Ukraine endangered EU’s energy security and Russia’s energy livelihood. And that’s just not done.
There is an ‘opinion’ of ‘the couch potato experts’ that Russia won’t have enough gas to fill both pipelines.
However, having reserve capacity on hand is actually the point! Two pipelines will be filled with gas as needed, reserve capacity used as necessary. The constant competition between the two will not allow either party to attempt what Ukraine has done for years: blackmail Russia either economically or geopolitically, while keeping EU gas customers hostage.
The realisation of the plan of the competing pipelines will put an end to the American Dream of cutting Russian gas from Europe. Will US try to stop the construction? Undoubtedly. My prediction: because of well-chosen allies, and unlike with South Stream, they will fail.
The deadline for the complete turn off of the Ukraine gas transit system is 2019. Until then, EU and Germany will have to continue paying for Ukrainian gas in order to ensure Ukraine doesn’t turn off the vent.
Alexander Medvedev, Gasprom Deputy Chairman said: “After the current gas transit agreement with Ukraine expires, there will be no new contract, nor extension of the existing contract, under any circumstances. Due to the economic, political, investment and technological risks, there will be no more Ukraine gas transit, not even if sun and moon switch places in the sky.”
China: Deeper reason for the stampede to secure Russian gas
In addition to the Turkish Stream and Nord Stream rivalry, for the EU and Germany there is another, more important consideration.
Germany must act now, before Russian gas gets redirected to China and Asia via the Power of Siberia pipeline. Let’s recall my 2014 predictions: once it happens, it will be too late and EU will begin experiencing gas shortages. Shortages can be avoided if Europe acts now to secure multi-year gas commitments.
Therefore, Russia is building a fully balanced and diversified Eurasian gas supply system, and Chinese counterweight plays a big part in it.
Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream will eventually take all gas transit business away from Ukraine. It means that regardless of how the power in Ukraine changes in the following 2-3 years (and it will), Ukraine will only be able to buy gas for itself – at market prices. It won’t be able to profit from the exclusive gas transiter status.
Poor, naive Ukrainians; while they were yelling and screaming on Kiev maidan that Russia was bad, shrewd Europeans nodded politely and did what they had to do to provide for their energy security. This eventually will render Ukraine unnecessary for either US or EU, and, as I predicted, it will simply be abandoned. Too bad the cost will be so great for the people… I wonder, will Ukrainians ever learn?
This effectively means that US will lose interest in Ukraine and drop it like a hot potato. Recall my timeline for the mega-changes in Ukraine: 2016-18.
US LNG Shale Gas
But what about the US and its LNG shale gas, you ask? Judging by the St. Petersburg deals, Europeans aren’t holding their breath for it.
Let’s be clear: US shale gas is yet another bubble. This, awfully harmful to the environment bubble, will burst, just like so many before it.
Where is China?
What went completely unnoticed in the media was the presence of China at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Too bad, because this is actually the country everyone should have been watching in the first place. Chinese press wrote after the event that China and Russia fortified their future-oriented, long-term strategic partnership. Russia is the key partner in China’s New Silk Road project, which will unite in one economic space China, Russia/Eurasian Union, most of Asia and EU.
For more listen to my interview: Putin’s Disappearance and the New Silk Road ~ The Plane Truth
I spoke many times about the need to reunify all of Eurasia. This is one continent. The artificial division on Europe and Asia has to come to an end. Through trade and energy, this is what Russia and China are working on.
While Germany, Turkey and Greece trip all over themselves to be first to sign gas transit agreements with Russia, China is continuing its patient long-term expansion. Unlike the expansions of the US and EU, it targets to cooperatively unite, not divide. Patience is one thing Chinese have lots of. Pragmatic wisdom and vision is another.
Europeans could learn a lot from both Russians and Chinese.
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Pope Francis: Catholic Church’s Pope, an ancient title he holds ex officio as Bishop of Rome, in which capacity he is Sovereign ad vitam of the Vatican City State. Born: December 17, 1936 (age 78), Flores, Buenos Aires, Argentina. Full name: Pope Francis. Nationality: Argentine. Parents: Mario Jose Bergoglio, Regina Maria Sivori.
During his visit to Italy two days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pope Francis at the Vatican. It has to be noted that, while the Pope is obviously not fooled about what’s happening in the world – undoubtedly, his Argentine roots play a role in his clear vision – Italy as a state also is trying to find a way to quietly mend relations with Russia outside of the EU. It’s interesting that Putin’s visit took place directly after the G7 bash in Germany, during which Merkel and Obama sang a lot of anti-Russian songs in-between of sips of banana-flavored beer (not kidding) and vowed more anti-Russian sanctions.
It is also happening against the backdrop of the US trying to sneak its mid-range nuclear missiles into the EU, targeting Russia, and many other ugly things that signal the fresh push for World War IV (WWIV because, in all truth, we should really consider the Cold War as WWIII). But more about that in another piece.
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s third meeting with Putin in the past year is a signal that Italy is attempting to distance itself from Germany and the US. Italy is obviously trying to wiggle its way out the crippling anti-Russian, and return Russian, sanctions. Italians have told me that Italian agriculture is hard hit by the quid pro quo sanctions.
At the same time, Italy is trying to revive its lucrative energy cooperation with Russia, which the US and its vassals in the EU are actively sabotaging. Italian energy companies have been working on deals with Russia since Berlusconi. The most important component of these deals was the direct supply of the Russian gas to Italy via the southern route, which was supposed to be accomplished via South Stream. The northern route – Nord Stream – was successfully and very quickly pushed through by Germany, utilizing the German clout in international affairs.
Italian clout isn’t nearly as substantial. Moreover (I wrote about that in the past), Berlusconi’s reputation with women notwithstanding, he was undoubtedly pushed out of his post because of his close relationship with Putin and ‘excessive’ friendliness towards Russia.
The Italian energy companies, first of all Eni, took a blow after US managed to sabotage South Stream and the project was closed. The new Turkish Stream project is needed like fresh air by many countries, but it is already running into significant difficulties due to sabotage from the same source. See my video: Macedonia Coup Attempt – War Against Russia & China (LRL12). The new twist in this saga is coming up in one of my future vids. Stay tuned!
Pope Francis is another thing all together. Catholic church and the Vatican continue to hold a very substantial sway over worldly affairs, even if this soft power is invisible to most.
Francis’ interest in meeting with President Putin isn’t so much economics, although this issue concerns anyone who lives in Italy; while the Vatican is a separate state, it is, after all, geographically a part of Rome. Additionally, much of the Pope’s flock resides in Italy and surely, his people are well-aware of those farmers and shippers who are going bankrupt because of sanctions; they know of losses Italian energy and industrial companies are suffering.
Still the Pope’s main interest at this point is geopolitics and the diplomacy of peace. And that’s where it gets interesting.
During Putin and Pope’s behind-the-closed-doors visit, which lasted 50 minutes – longer than prescribed – Pope Francis gave Putin the “Angel of Peace” medal. This medal is said to have the ability to create peace and protection, as well as the solidarity among peoples. The choice of words is very interesting: a symbol – ‘talisman,’ ‘wish’ – of protection and peace is being given to Putin by the head of the Catholic church. ‘Solidarity’ is the word feared terribly in the US, but used broadly in socialist and left-leaning societies, including South America and Pope’s native Argentina. Pope Francis has also mentioned that the Bible addresses not just spiritual matters, but also geopolitics as one of the important aspects of human co-habitation. The above language of symbols and hints, typical for the Vatican, thus reflects an important message.
The US pressured (and by pressure I mean blackmailed, coerced and attacked in the media) Francis to take a tough line on Putin and condemn Russia. Meanwhile, the head of the so-called Greek-Catholic church of Ukraine archbishop Shevchuk criticised the Pope for meeting with Putin and urged him to shorten or cancel the meeting.
The Greek-Catholic church of Ukraine is something that was created in the 18-19th centuries, during a forceful Catholic conversion of the western Ukraine population – at the time under Catholic Poland and Austria-Hungary. It is in fact Catholicism disguised with a thin layer of Greek flavor (the words ‘Russian Orthodox’ were banished).
Since the 2014 Kiev maidan coup, Ukraine’s Greek-Catholics took a very violent posture against Russian Orthodox churches and priests, traditional for most of Ukraine. Many Orthodox churches in Donbass were destroyed by bombings or burned down and looted. Many priests and church-goers continue being threatened and humiliated. A large number of Orthodox churches all over Ukraine were forcibly taken away from the rightful owners and converted into Greek-Catholic ones.
Someone asked me last year, when all this was going on, whether Pope Francis was becoming a hidden ally of Russia. My reply was that the only thing Francis could do as far as Ukraine was to offer an olive branch and try to distance himself from what was happening in Ukraine. This is what he did.
The extreme violence and rage of the primarily Greek-Catholic element from western Ukraine isn’t something he can control. But after the violence finally calms down and the right people come to power in what is now Ukraine (recall my timeline: 2016 -2018), all the churches wrongly taken away from the Russian Orthodox church will be returned to the rightful owners. Let’s consider this one of my little predictions. Putin and Francis spoke behind the closed doors and the topics of their conversation were not disclosed. But knowing Putin, I am sure that he got a promise from the Pope that he would use his power to return the churches.
The Vatican continues being a powerful and deep-reaching conglomeration of various interests, from spiritual to financial and geopolitical. This is one of those entities that can subtly influence world opinion and serve as part of the diplomatic solution, when used for good. There are one billion Catholics in the world today. The power of the Catholic church stretches through Europe and Latin America, as well as many countries of Asia and Africa. Catholic influence in the US is not as significant and it is doubtful that Pope Francis would be able to talk any sense into the US ‘leadership.’ On the contrary, US has the audacity to admonish the Pope and read him lectures on how he should conduct his affairs. What else is new?
But it is out there for all to see that this Pope is different. Pope Francis clearly disagrees with the West and the US and he clearly prefers Putin. In fact, there is a talk of an unlikely alliance. Call it a soft-power diplomatic-spiritual alliance. Francis likes the fact that Putin has positioned himself as defender of Christians, who are under attack in Syria, Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East. Francis also took a pro-Assad and pro-Syrian government position against the US.
Pope Francis and all heads of the Catholic Church – as leaders of most other main religions – prefer Putin to Obama, or other Western leaders. The reason lies in Putin’s straightforward conservative values combined with his active stance in promoting religious tolerance, equality, friendship and cooperation between various religions. I hear the same from prominent leaders of Jewish and Muslim religions. Since most people on the planet are religious, this is something that endears Putin to many.
Pope Francis is undoubtedly anti-US hegemony, anti-Western imperialism and militarism. He has to be as diplomatic and possible, but the fact remains: this is certainly his Argentine roots talking. Based on the above, Putin and Francis hit it off pretty well.
But it goes deeper than that. I believe that it’s well beyond Pope Francis and his personal preferences, although it helps to have the right man at the helm.
The Vatican elites aren’t blind. They see where the wind is blowing – and it’s away from the US and West, towards the East. Call it abandoning the sinking ship of the West OR steering the Vatican ship into more promising waters…
The Vatican is re-orienting towards the East, Russia and China.
And the Vatican isn’t the only one. Israel is doing the same, and not just Israel.
But what about Putin? Oh, he plays his master chess as usual. I wrote in 2014 that Putin, with his out-of-this-world tireless productivity, circled the world and managed to glue together a network of various allies all over the globe. Sure, the US has the biggest and scariest army in the world; it also controls the world media and financial system. It can intimidate, bribe, blackmail or attack anyone. That’s why countries are afraid to speak up. But the future is behind the alliance that is forming quietly, and often secretly, behind the scenes.
Putin continues looking for new allies, quietly weaving together the new world, where the US won’t be hegemon. And now the Vatican is slowly but surely shifting towards this alliance.
Italy is the friendliest towards Russia out of all significant Western economies. The Vatican, located in the middle of Italy, is positioning itself for the future. The Pope’s friendly position towards Putin and Russia also reflects the opinion of the majority of Catholics in Italy, Spain, Greece, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and all of Latin America, as well as Asia and Africa. And it’s not what Washington has hoped for.
An interesting confirmation of what I said from an unlikely source, CNN!
I really don’t read or watch CNN. But as I was looking for the Pope and Putin’s image online, this popped up: ‘Why only Putin could turn up late for meeting with the Pope’ – Link to article. Moscow (CNN):
“There aren’t many world leaders prepared to keep the Pope hanging around for a meeting. Russia’s President is perhaps the only one.
Pope Francis discovered this on Wednesday as he waited, patiently, for more than an hour at the Vatican for his guest to finally arrive. There aren’t many world leaders either who could annex one part of a neighboring country while backing a bloody rebellion in another part, and still avoid strong criticism from, arguably, the world’s most influential religious figure. Vladimir Putin appears to fall into that narrow category too.
The issue of Ukraine was raised, we’re told, during their brief, closed-door meeting. According to a Vatican statement, “The Holy Father affirmed that it is necessary to make a sincere and great effort to forge peace,” in the war-ravaged country. Pope Francis and Putin also agreed to “restore a climate of dialogue.”
But the exchange was not the condemnation called for by many, including members of the Greek Catholic congregation, who number millions in Ukraine, and who have expressed frustration at the Pope’s failure to criticize Russia’s role in the Ukraine conflict. Nor are the words likely to satisfy the U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See, Kenneth Hackett, who urged the Vatican, ahead of the Putin meeting, to “say more about concerns on territorial integrity” in Ukraine.
To be fair, the Vatican is not following the same diplomatic agenda as Western governments regarding Russia.
Hale goes on to suggest that Francis may play a diplomatic role in resolving the conflict in Ukraine too. But if Wednesday’s meeting was anything to go on, in which the Pontiff and the President exchanged gifts, I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
No, that meeting was more about Putin than the Pope. Just a day after being publicly scolded by the world’s industrial powers, the G7 — including a particularly strong rebuke from U.S. President Barack Obama — Putin was shoulder to shoulder with the spiritual leader of 1 billion Roman Catholics worldwide.
Russia may not be quite so isolated after all.”
New related article: Ask Lada: Pope Francis, Satanic Cults, Religions and Consciousness (Ep1)
To form a complete picture, also read it in concert with: Putin and Erdogan Troll EU at Baku’s First European Games
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NEW Intel and Predictions: Peace and War Crimes in Ukraine? Russian Gas or Cold Winter? Mrs. USA in Crimea?
Russian gas and peace: peace in Ukraine suddenly on the agenda as winter draws near
I am starting off with something unheard of before! Last night in Gorlovka, DNR, Novorossia (E. Ukraine) there was a joint PEACEFUL meeting of Ukraine army and Novorossia military commanders with the representatives of Russia and OSCE. Russia was represented by General Alexander Lentsov, Assistant Commander of Infantry of the Russian Federation. The military on all sides were discussing why ceasefire isn’t working – the civilian quarters are still being bombed. The participants were trying to solidify the ceasefire agreements. This info in Russian: starts at 2:20 to 4:40. Although no agreements were reached and Ukraine reps refused to talk to the media, the major breakthrough is that the military on both sides is at least willing to talk to each other, instead of shooting. Although this word wasn’t spoken, but in fact the military were discussing the new border between Novorossia and Ukraine, de-facto recognizing the new state.
De-facto Kiev already recognized our independence, says DNR head Zakharchenko. Video – Rus.
To say that such a meeting constitutes a massive breakthrough is to say nothing. I said in LRL4: Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine that Ukraine and Novorossia will eventually have to agree on peace – they will have no choice. Incidentally, the closer we get to the winter, the more desperate the Ukraine/Kiev junta side will become to agree on something; the more malleable their position will become. Poroshenko may be a US stooge, but he is also an oligarch, hence survivor par excellence. He knows that if he doesn’t do everything he can so that his country can survive this winter, by next spring he will have another maidan on his hands, and he will have Yulia Tymoshenko breathing down his neck – and Yulia’s breathing is deadly. She is bound to topple Poroshenko on a new wave of public discontent. Poroshenko knows all about it, after all he was one of the original financiers and instigators of the 2004 Orange revolution, seen next to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko delivering victory speeches.
Of course the closer we get to winter, the more EU itself is sounding alarm bells. Both EU and Ukraine were audacious during warm months, when the need in Russian gas was low and reserves in both Ukraine and EU high. But come winter, the spread changes dramatically.
Prediction: the closer we get to winter, the more agreeable and malleable both EU and the Ukraine junta will become. I won’t be surprised if EU sanctions against Russia will be quietly forgotten and demurely set aside. “We were just joking,” they’ll say. “Can happen between the best of friends. Can you please allow our goods back into the Russian market? And can you please continue supplying us with Russian gas?” This process has already started.
I have this advise for Russia’s leadership: Don’t trust these announcements much. These are not the people to trust, they are the same neocons and neoliberals who were yelling that Russia was aggressor just several short months ago. Although, sure – dialogue is always a great idea. Talking and finding points of mutual agreement is what Russian diplomacy always excelled at. Of course the difficulty always was to find someone lucid enough on the other side to talk to. It seems only the FEAR of their own hardship can get some sense into the EU politicians. Obviously, the fact that their efforts to create the area of instability in Ukraine due to their ulterior motives, caused immense suffering and a brutal civil war, concerns them not. Absolutely the same process is happening in Ukraine, except there are even fewer people with whom it’s possible to reason in Kiev.
It will take time for the EU to truly change leadership, but it’ll happen. It will be a tedious and unpleasant process. The population of Europe has the power to change the EU leadership, therefore changing the continent’s course, but many are still duped by the MSM. Present day EU has been hijacked by the Transatlantic-centric neocons, and on the economic side, by US/UK-centric banksters. However, the awakening has started.
And of course, here it is! What do you know! During Berlin meeting between Russia, very worried EU, and clueless Ukraine, Ukraine promised to pay for a large portion of its $5bln+ gas debt to Russia. What’s new is that EU now gives personal guarantees that the Ukraine deadbeat will fulfil its promise. How sweet! As soon as the heating season starts looming, how much more agreeable the EU and Ukraine get! What an amazing metamorphosis from the summer bellicose and hateful rhetoric! Listen to this info in Russian, including charts: starts at 7:20.
After all this, is there any way to respect or treat seriously such people? Think not.
Gas price and Ukraine debt to Gasprom: Ukraine will get Russian gas if they pay $3.1 bln out of $5.3 bln they owe Gasprom. In the future gas supply will be pre-paid only; the price is $385, which is a compromise. This is a $100 discount to the EU gas price. In reality, many EU countries pay less, which depends on volume and how long-term their agreement with Gasprom is. But since Ukraine never made long-term agreements with Russia, and even the ones they had made, keep being broken, they are not eligible for discounts.
If Ukraine fulfills these requirements, it will receive 5bln cubic meters of gas, which should be enough for the winter… if it’s warm. The likelihood is that Ukraine may need much more gas, as they’ve been lying about their true gas reserves. In that case, they will likely start siphoning EU gas as it happened so many times before.
Let’s remember that just before being overturned by the maidan coup in February 2014, Yanukovich signed the deal with Russia according to which the nearly bankrupt Ukraine would have been getting the much-needed gas at $220. Belarus, the member of the Customs Union, gets Russian gas practically for free, at $180, making Belorussian economy very competitive compared to the EU. This in part accounts for the so-called “Belorussian miracle” – stability, great infrastructure, robust economy, etc. I might do a piece about that at some point. So, the inevitable conclusion is that it’s so much more profitable to be friends with Russia.
Let’s compare this to Ukraine and the 2014 violent Kiev coup under anti-Russian slogans. What did they achieve? They lost Crimea and at least Donbass. Donbass in 2013 was responsible for 30% of the Ukraine GDP. Grivna is drastically down despite Kiev cooking the books and world banksters being complicit in propping up the dying grivna. Inflation is skyrocketing. Ukraine is about to freeze in the winter.
Ukraine is selling strategic grain reserves
My intel also says this: due to the economic problems and the fact that coffers are empty, Ukraine is now exporting its strategic grain reserves. These reserves are usually kept intact because they are normally needed in the winter. The grain trains keep moving towards Mariupol. Mariupol is the Azov Sea port, one of the few suitable ports Ukraine has left (apart from Odessa and Ilichevsk – both in Odessa oblast + military port in Nikolaev). In Mariupol the grain gets loaded into ships and leaves the country. Another version is that the Kiev junta is trying to move the grain normally stored in eastern Ukraine to the western side of the country, anticipating that all of eastern Ukraine may be lost to them eventually and thus preparing to leave people without food in retaliation.
Either way, the result may be not only winter cold, but also hunger. This info is from Oleg Tsarev – former Rada deputy and presidential candidate, who is now the Speaker of the Novorossia parliament.
Mariupol is a bone of contention between Novorossia and Kiev. It is a city of 400,000 located in the Donetsk oblast. It has been occupied by the Kiev army since May. DNR says it belongs to Novorossia since it’s part of the Donetsk oblast. Kiev disagrees. Mariupol is a very important a valuable port for Novorossia, which would give them access to the Black Sea. I talk about it in LRL4: Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine. In this episode, you’ll also find the detailed map of Ukraine, including Mariupol.
And another interesting thing to point out: where did all the talk about the US shale gas that would replace Russian gas go? Obviously, the EU did some number crunching and came to the inevitable conclusion that it wouldn’t work. Another interesting thing to note: the absolute silence of the US on the Ukraine and EU front, including the gas issue. Remember how vocal was the US until August that they would replace Russian gas with theirs?
I said in my prior article that US saw they were losing in Ukraine and they made a deal with Russia to quietly disengage from Ukraine in exchange for minor adjustments elsewhere from Russia’s side (I wouldn’t trust the US long-term, but for the time being – temporarily – it’s fine). Read more in My Latest Intel: Did US Lose in Ukraine? Is Putin the Best Russian Leader? Do People Prefer Conspiracies to Real Truth? All the above confirms my earlier intel.
EU was a part of the deal and now we are seeing that the EU starts acting differently in Ukraine, acting as one of the brokers for peace. But also notice how they are acting elsewhere: both UK and France are starting to bomb ISIS positions in the Middle East. All this is connected.
Rest assured that the real negotiations are still going on between Russia and US only, with EU playing the second fiddle and the point man, and Ukraine being used as loose change and cannon fodder (when will they finally learn?). I won’t say more at this point. Please read between the lines.
Atrocities by Kiev junta and Future International Tribunal
I have been predicting in my earlier articles that there will be an international tribunal that will convict Ukraine war criminals, just like the Nuremberg tribunal convicted the German Nazis. The people and governments of Russia, DNR and LNR, as well as elsewhere in Ukraine, are documenting the atrocities in the so-called White Book. Many names of those guilty have been identified. Eventually, all these materials will serve as proof for prosecution.
This is so horrible that I have a lot of trouble talking about it! The new gruesome discoveries of mass graves of tortured and killed civilians, with hands tied behind their backs and mutilated faces, are being discovered in E. Ukraine as the Kiev junta army retreats. This is so chilling and horrific that I decided not to post any links, except one. You can find much more material about these awful discoveries by Googling it or by searching on YouTube. Also go to RT.com – see my Resources page above for link.
These are some of the horrifying stories from RT:
A freed from junta village destroyed by the Kiev nazis: an old woman says that she survived by miracle when bomb hit her house. Mostly only old people are left, who have no place to go – all others took refuge in Russia. The woman says that her neighbor didn’t take the main road home once; she wanted to take a shortcut through the fields – and the Kiev national guard just shot her point-blank. When they were leaving, says the old lady, their tongues became loose and one confessed: “You should be thankful,” he said, “that we left you alive. We had orders to level your village completely and to kill everyone.”
Old people, who once survived WWII, are saying that German nazis didn’t behave as badly as these, who call themselves Ukrainians and who insist they want to live with their victims in the same state. This explains why Hitler himself was afraid of the ukro-nazis from the western Ukraine SS division Galichina and similar SS units.
Locals from the small towns that just got freed from the contemporary ukro-nazis testify that the occupiers would ride into town, enter a building and start crashing windows and everything in sight. Before leaving, they burned down all the books in the library and went in rooms, on walls and everywhere they could. For them, toilets apparently are superfluous.
This story of a man who came back alive, but branded, is going viral. It can probably be easily found on the net. The man was tortured with hot irons. They branded the huge word “separatist” across his entire chest. On his rear they branded him with a huge – I mean huge – swastika.
The Donbass self-defence had to stop the agreed upon exchange of prisoners. While self-defence was giving back real soldiers, the Kiev junta side was sabotaging the exchange: instead of fighters or activists it was sending simple civilians. Many of these civilians were kidnapped from their respective towns in other parts of the country when they were going about their business. They were tortured, made confess of something and then exchanged for the real nazi killers and military. Realizing that they were unwittingly enabling these kidnappings, the Novorossia government stopped the prisoner exchange till further notice.
Here is a link provided by reader Nemo (Spasibo!):
Nemo1024Sep 28, 12:20 pm: Alas, yet another mass grave was discovered on the territory that was for two weeks occupied by the ignominious battalion Ajdar of the Ukrainian National Guard: http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1472678
I want to remind everyone that this is the regime that has been brought to power, wined and dined, fully supported, enabled and protected from justice by the US and EU! This is a fine illustration of what kind of democracy the Western governments spread all over the world!
Why Kiev junta doesn’t trust its own army and intelligence (SBU)
How can they! Let’s recall that since February-March 2014 (go to my articles under Ukraine category for that period) I said that at least part of Ukraine army is more likely to have allegiance to Russia than to the Kiev junta. That was said well before the gruesome war was initiated in E. Ukraine by the Kiev junta. My words proved true quickly when Crimea became Russian again and most of the Crimea’s contingent of the Ukraine navy and military switched to Russian side.
During the last few months, officers and soldiers in the Ukraine army, police and intelligence have been resigning in droves, deserting or defecting. The number of desertions constitutes by different accounts 1/4, or more, of the entire army.
Many are hiding from draft, or refuse to ship to E. Ukraine. Various reports have been surfacing of Ukraine national guard, consisting of known nazis and felons let out of jail, shooting those who refused to fight or who was caught trying to surrender to self-defence. They sometimes would shoot entire units and then bury them by the road, spraying acid on top so bodies couldn’t be identified.
The disaster in Ukraine army is such that many relatives have no idea if their loved ones are alive or dead. Thousands are MIA, most of these in fact victims of their own army. When all this is over, there will be lots of shocked and grieving people in Ukraine, and lots of explaining to do. The losses in Ukraine army, in big part by the hand of their own, will prove staggering. Once peace comes, this unpleasant disclosure will have to be made sooner or later, and this is one of the reasons some in Ukraine want to prolong the war for as long as possible.
That said, Ukraine army is quickly running out of cannon fodder, and that was one of the reasons they needed the present ceasefire. Meanwhile, more and more Ukraine soldiers are going public saying they were betrayed and left to die by their commanders. Recently, 400 conscripts from Western Ukraine took off in their ARCs and rode home. On another occasion, 200 from Vinnitsa in central Ukraine also simply abandoned their positions and went home to the relief of their families. More about that in LRL4: Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine.
It has been shown that Ukraine’s army officers who hardly get paid, in order to survive have routinely sold the army hardware, weapons and munitions to Donbass self-defence. This was done for two reasons. First, to make money, and second – to earn future forgiveness when this Kiev junta is finished.
Same goes for intel. Ukraine army officers have been known to pass info about their position and movement, therefore allowing DNR and LNR self-defence to regroup and counter the attack, or take the unit prisoner. Intel by secret sympathisers allowed to surround and destroy some of the most hard-core and vicious national guard ukro-nazi battalions. This is one of the reasons they have been so successful in creating “cauldrons” – surrounding the Kiev troops. Regular Ukraine military hates national guard as much as the Donbass people.
In fact, the military in Ukraine see the writing on the wall. Some in the Ukraine army and SBU (intelligence) are trying to earn future exoneration of their past and present sins by playing double agent role.
New intel: Poroshenko and his cronies in the Kiev junta government have announced the “cleansing” of SBU – read, they don’t trust their own intelligence services due to the fact that some among them may be double agents. This isn’t being advertised, but it’s understood.
Remember the leaked phone conversations between Nuland and US Kiev ambassador where Nuland is heard ‘appointing’ Ukraine’s PM and other officials? This was also the conversation in which she said, “F**k EU.” Another leaked call was that of Tymoshenko where she said that all Russians living in eastern Ukraine must be nuked. Who leaked these conversations in social media? One of the prevailing opinions is that it came from the dissenting SBU officers. The Kiev junta has been on the hunt for these since the beginning. Poroshenko is starting a new round of ‘Gestapo-style final solution cleaning.’ These are trained spies though, and I seriously doubt they can be found out that easily.
Building Bridges: massive construction of the railroad bridge to Crimea and… Mrs. USA Pageant in Sevastopol
Video interview in Russian. Глава РЖД: Работы по строительству железной дороги через Керченский пролив уже ведутся.
Head of Russian Railways: ‘we are already conducting preliminary work to prepare for the construction of the railroad through the Kerch Strait to connect mainland with the Crimea. We were the first ones ready to start. The bridge through the Kerch Strait will be adopted for auto and railroad traffic. The initial railroad isn’t planned to be high-speed, although we will be able to adopt it for high-speed trains. It all depends on investments we receive.’
Due to the blockade by Ukraine, Crimea has a very limited connection with mainland Russia since there is no land border between the two. The only reliable traffic is via the Black Sea ferry and shipping service, but it’s not enough for the huge peninsula with 2 million population. The air traffic to Crimea, which is now effectively an ‘island,’ is being partially blocked by sanctions. If my readers remember I talked about the Russian budget airline that was sanctioned because it dared to fly to Crimea. Crimea is also suffering from the lack of investments as even Russian companies are afraid to do business with Crimea for fear of being cut off from SWIFT and Western loans, or for fear of personal sanctions against their top management. Same goes for Russian banks. Very few open branches in Crimea because of the same fear.
This situation is being resolved little by little and it will take time to normalize it. Of course, Russian companies think in terms of profit, just like any capitalist structure in the world.
However, this is being addressed slowly. One of the reasons for a relatively slow response is the unresolved situation in Ukraine. Ukraine 2-4 years from now will have a different management and direction, as we discussed in some of my prior articles. Russians would prefer to invest in Crimea when they know exactly what needs to be done in conjunction with the changed situation in Ukraine.
But the blockade is being slowly broken and the situation is about to change!
No, it’s not a joke, and you aren’t hallucinating! 😉 Mrs. USA pageant will take place, of all places, in Sevastopol, Crimea, Russia in the spring of 2015. It will be happening jointly with Mrs. Russia pageant. Sevastopol is the so-called ‘city of the Russian glory,’ and the seat of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. So, this may seem bizarre, and already voices are heard that this is a disgrace. However, in view of the blockade we discussed above, it’s a creative way to break through the wall of disinfo and lies.
Can you imagine how much this single pageant, incidentally, conducted together with the Russian pageant (and they are also discussing having other countries participating), will do to change the minds of the Americans about Crimea and Russia? And I can assure you, the Sevastopol backdrop is gorgeous and under-rated. It will do them good to open up to the world.
The organizer of the Mrs. USA contest admits that it was his idea. He himself has roots in Odessa and Belarus, where a lot of Russian jews lived historically. He also was on the organizer committee for the Los Angeles 1984 Olympics. In retaliation for the US and West boycotting the 1980 Moscow Olympics, USSR and other countries boycotted the 1984 US Olympics. He says he learned back then that boycotts and sanctions are a bad idea. I think this is admirable initiative, conducive of dialogue instead of fighting. As the Russian saying goes, poor peace is better than a good war.
However, this is what’s really going on behind the scenes. In fact, Mrs. USA contest in Crimea is none other than a signal that the West, and USA in particular, is going to play ball going forward. This is a confirmation of what I said in prior articles: USA made a deal and is ready to start slowly backing off from Ukraine. Let’s just say Mrs. USA in Crimea is a sort of olive branch. A few months from now, the West will start slowly disengaging from the anti-Russian sanctions, possibly sooner.
I have predicted this whole scenario, including US/EU threats and vilifying of Russia through anti-Russian media campaign, in article: Ukraine Part 6. Striking Geopolitical Similarities: Georgian War – Beijing2008 and Ukraine – Sochi2014 published on March 2, 2014. It’s well worth the read!
That said, Russians actually want sanctions to last longer. They don’t want them annulled. Do you know why? Russians know their national character – for them the status quo and stability is such an overriding principle that they need an external push to start the badly needed economic reforms to tear the Russian economy away from the Western influence. This is because the karmic and historic role of Russia as the global balancer and harmonizer is firmly imbedded in national psyche. This is a truly admirable national feature, however, under the circumstances and whenever change is needed it becomes a problem.
The fear is that the moment sanctions are over they may get complacent again, striving to preserve balance. Sanctions, or any negative actions by the West are a much-needed kick in the rear.
My advice and wish for the Russians: when sanctions are over, don’t stop, keep going and keep reforming the economy to fit the advanced future society model. Hint: it’s not capitalism. For more on this see PREDICTIONS above. I will also discuss this in detail in future EARTH SHIFT REPORTS. For an interesting angle on this also see my recent article: Multipolar World and Deja Vu.
One of my readers recently asked me why Russia isn’t more forceful in recognizing Novorossia (DNR and LNR). Don’t they want to save the people of Donbass? I responded that of course they do, but for Russia the dilemma is how to save the entire Ukraine, not just Donbass. How to create the situation in the whole Ukrainian territory when, as the saying goes, “the wolves are fed and the lambs are safe.” This is a very tall order, but as I predicted previously, there will be great changes in Ukraine between 2016 and 2018. See more in Predictions.
This is tied into building the infrastructure for the Crimea, as well as the Prindestrovie and Moldova issues. I’ve talked about what is happening in Moldova in LRL2: LadaRayLive 2. Explosion Coming! Moldova/Transnistria – Eurasian Union vs EU. I will have a very interesting special report on Pridnestrovie (Transnistria) soon.
To continue the above topic – coming next! New FREE Earth Shift Report explaining the true history of Ukraine and the roots of rusophobia in Ukraine and post-Soviet space.
Stay tuned and please remember to SUPPORT FuturisTrendcast!
Lots of good info with Jim Willie. The fall of #SaudiArabia, #petrodollar, #USA. Geopolitics of #China, #Russia, the #BRICS, #Iran, natural gas, #Gazprom, pipelines, #Cyprus and more.
Warning: some items in his narrative (mostly in the second half) may seem like a far-fetched “fantasy.” There is lots of interesting stuff here and the important thing is to keep an open mind. I can neither confirm nor deny some of Jim’s info or conclusions in the second half of the interview. Still, a lot of what he says, primarily in the first half, I know to be true or at least plausible. So, have a listen and use your best judgement.