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**My German intel: huge turmoil in Germany as Merkel is hanging by the thread, and as the coalition government continues to collapse (incidentally, as predicted). Trump added oil to the fire by saying publicly that ‘Germans hate Merkel.’ This is happening while Poroshenko is trying to put together ‘international coalition’ to stop Nord Stream-2 and makes very strange moves towards Germany.
This whole week and some of the next will be dedicated to many developments In Ukraine/Novorossia/Odessa/Donbass, as well as Moldova and EU. Multiple articles and posts coming!
Russia on the Offensive! Gazprom Terminates Gas Contracts with Ukraine and Patriarch Kirill Reminds Bulgaria Who Liberated It
Russia on the Offensive! Gazprom Terminates Gas Contracts with Ukraine and Patriarch Kirill Reminds Bulgaria who Liberated It
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This has been in the wind for a week. I’ve been following this since day one. It is all the talk in Ukraine, blaming, as usual, everyone but themselves.
It started at the end of last year, when the Stockholm arbitrage took a normal for the West double-standard position and let Ukraine off leniently after Ukraine’s non-payment of debts to Gazprom for years. The arbitrage cited the ‘worsening of economic conditions in Ukraine’ as the reason for its biased decision, effectively telling Russia to pick up billions of euros worth bill for Ukraine.
Last week Stockholm issued a new decision this time on Ukraine gas transit to the EU, and according to the new, politically motivated decision on Russian gas transit through Ukraine, Gazprom now owes Ukraine $2.5 bln.
This is happening with the background of Ukraine recently passing the second law (first was passed in 2015) declaring Russia an aggressor, with a chorus of Western countries supporting Ukraine, or being conspicuously silent.
As part of the Stockholm decision, Ukraine is still obligated to buy a minimum amount of gas from Russia, in exchange for pre-payment. If you remember, since the Kiev junta supported by the West took over Ukraine in 2014, it denied buying gas from Russia, saying that the only gas purchased by Ukraine was from the EU. This was done for ideological reasons and in line with the plan for Ukraine to be artificially torn from Russia, in order to create anti-Russia on Russian borders.
In reality it was reverse transit gas from Russia purchased by Ukraine from Slovakia at inflated prices.
Suddenly, after the Stockholm arbitrage decision mandating Ukraine to continue purchasing minimum amounts of Russian gas, Ukraine flip-flopped and announced that it was ok to buy gas from the ‘aggressor.’ This announcement fueled the present anti-Poroshenko, anti-government protests by Kiev radicals.
Ukraine Naftogas is the state conglomerate responsible for: 1. purchase and distribution of gas to Ukraine’s domestic consumers, including homes, offices and industry; 2. managing domestic and international gas pipes, reservoirs, pumping stations and other gas infrastructure; 3. lucrative gas transit through Ukraine to the EU.
Let me remind everyone that thanks to the USSR investments into Ukraine, it is practically 100% covered by gas infrastructure, including cooking/heating and industrial energy usage throughout.
Past winters have been warm, but as many of you know, a few weeks ago a serious arctic cold front descended on the entire northern hemisphere, including US, Canada, Russia, EU, and of course, Ukraine. In this environment Ukraine suddenly needed much more gas. They were looking at a deficit of 10+ mln cubic tones. And they suddenly remembered Russian gas and sent their pre-payment for March.
A big shock followed when following Stockholm arbitrage’s new decision, last week Gazprom returned Ukraine’s check and announced that it won’t be pumping gas to Ukraine. A veritable storm of indignation by Ukraine and Poroshenko/ukro-nazis followed, who said that Russia had no right to withhold gas to Ukraine. Let’s recall: just recently they were saying they would never buy gas from the Russian ‘aggressor.’
They didn’t know what was to follow yet…
Gazprom followed up by initiating through the court the proceedings to terminate the contract with Ukraine, which, Gazprom has maintained for years, Ukraine forfeited a long time ago. The contract in question includes the supply of gas to Ukraine, but even more significantly, the lucrative contract between Naftogas and Gazprom for the gas transit to Europe.
Gazprom maintains that not only Naftogas has forfeited the contract, but Stockholm arbitrage also took a biased decision and exceeded its jurisdiction. The citing by the Stockholm arbitrage of the ‘worsening economic situation in Ukraine’ as the reason for unfair decision, said the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller, means that the arbitrage wants Gazprom to carry Ukraine’s financial load. We are a business and this is contrary to the interests of our stockholders, noted Miller.
Russia has finally learned to play by their rules, as we see: hit them where it hurts, their wallet, fake capitalism (only when it suits them) and fake democracy with clear double standards.
Miller’s announcement that Russia is terminating gas supply and gas transit contract with Ukraine: Gazprom terminates gas contracts with Ukraine’s Naftogaz.
Good and long overdue move, if I may say so myself, and as always with Putin the Grand Master — completely unexpected. Note that it is happening right before Russian elections. Not that Putin needs those extra points, but he will increase his already fantastic lead!
Europeans are very worried about what will happen to their gas supply, if Ukraine is taken offline. The big problem expected: Ukraine will again begin stealing European gas being pumped through its territory.
It is well-known that Russia intends to terminate gas transit contract with Ukraine as of January 1, 2019, when it expires. But this new move adds fuel to the fire, pun intended.
Just a couple of days ago Putin received the new Federal Chancellor of Austria, who chose to make his first trip outside the EU to Russia. The new Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is only 31 (yet another confirmation of my predictions: recall I told you all about the Period 8 favoring the young men in ESW4: Period 8 Predictions). During the visit Kurz has confirmed that Austria wants better and closer ties with Russia, is against sanctions and also that Austria wants to have a more secure gas supply from Russia, bypassing Ukraine. The extension of Nord Stream 2 is vitally important for Austria. In fact, gas contract and cooperation were the linchpin of Kurz agenda in Moscow. Video (eng subs).
The latest move by Gazprom reinforces the desire of Germany, Hungary and Austria to finish Nord Stream 2 in record time.
Meanwhile, Russian Patriarch Kirill is visiting Bulgaria, and this visit has been highly publicized and eagerly awaited by those Bulgarians, who still remember the truth. During his visit, the Patriarch made a point to emphasize Slavic and Orthodox unity, and he reminded that it wasn’t the EU who resurrected Bulgaria in its hour of need. During his meeting with Bulgarian president he reminded Bulgarians WHO saved them, at a great cost to Russian lives:
Russians, not Poles or Finns, Spilled Their Blood for Bulgaria – Patriarch Kirill Reminds in Sophia – Video, eng subs:
Meanwhile this Saturday in the snowed-in Kiev, Ukraine…
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On May 2 Putin had a phone conversation with Donald Trump, during which the two agreed to meet soon, probably during the approaching German G20 Summit. On May 3, 2017 Putin has met with Turkish president Erdogan. Clearly these two events are tied with Merkel’s visit. Trump and Putin meeting in Germany means the host needs to check in with both. In addition to the EU and German needs, Merkel seems to have assumed the temporary role of a liaison between Russia and US. Meanwhile Erdogan’s visit has a clear Russian gas pipeline / Turkish Stream underpinning, which is also tied to Syria. Erdogan’s message is (as I long predicted): Turkey’s direction is to distance itself from the US and EU and get closer to Russia.
On May 2, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has visited Sochi to meet with Vladimir Putin. The date was agreed upon two months prior, after Merkel’s persistent requests. Curiously, Putin found no day in his busy schedule other than May 2…
Merkel came to Moscow with several goals:
1. To compare notes on Ukraine and Minsk-2 negotiations, which – predictably – came to a standstill due to Kiev junta’s violations.
2. To make sure the construction of the crucial Nord Stream 2 was on track and to check with Putin how it could be pushed through before it’s too late.
Incidentally, Nord Stream 2 is a competing project with Turkish Stream. Both Germany and Turkey are in a competition who will get to build the pipe faster and who will get to transport more Russian gas.
3. To try scoring some political points before German elections, by showing German MSM present at the Putin-Merkel presser how tough she is on ‘bad’ Russia.
THE CURIOUS CHOICE OF THE DATE
It’s safe to say that Putin deliberately chose May 2. What’s so special about this particular date? Two things:
1. On May 2, 1945 Soviet troops took over Berlin, installing that famous Red Victory Banner over the defeated Reichstag, and officially ending WWII. It would take a few more days to draft the capitulation agreement, which would be signed on May 8 German time and on May 9 Russian time.
2. On May 2, 2014 ukro-nazi fascists, supported by Germany, US and EU, burned dozens (by some accounts, hundreds) of people alive on Odessa’s Kulikovo Polie. The only crime of these peaceful protesters was that they disagreed with the ukro-nazi Kiev regime and wanted to speak their native Russian language.
(Putin chose the joint Sochi presser to remind Merkel and German MSM present, that Odessa massacre went entirely unnoticed by the ‘democratic free world,’ no investigation took place and culprits walked free: PUTIN about Odessa Video – notice Merkel looking down.)
For the most part, negotiations were conducted behind closed doors. But the public part is very telling indeed.
As to Minsk-2, there was a surprising unity between Putin and Merkel, to a huge disappointment of Kiev. Minsk-2 has to be observed. There won’t be re-negotiation of the original terms, and contrary to Kiev’s continued hopes, there won’t be a new agreement.
Nord Stream 2 is another sticky point. Kiev junta, as well as its ‘friends’ – most notably Poland and the Baltics – keep hoping that Nord Stream 2 won’t be built. The construction of the second branch of the Russian gas pipeline to Germany will render obsolete the old Soviet pipeline through Ukraine.
The Ukraine pipeline is presently used for the transit of a significant amount of Russian gas to Europe, although the amount of transit diminishes every year as more gas gets rerouted. To this day, Russian gas transit is the biggest foreign revenue source for Ukraine.
Gazprom has long announced that after the current gas transit agreement expires in 2019, Russia won’t renew it. This effectively means the following:
- Russia plans to discontinue using Ukraine as the lead gas transiter to Europe – and nothing can change that. The only destinations to which Russian gas will still be delivered through Ukraine after 2018 will be Moldova and Pridnestrovie.
- As of the end of 2018 Ukraine will lose its leverage over both Russia and EU. In turn, US will lose leverage over Russia and EU by the means of Ukraine. And of course, USA’s and EU’s leverage over Russia and Ukraine will greatly diminish as well. This inevitably will change the geopolitical landscape. As I predicted all along, as it loses its importance as a pressure point against Russia, the US and EU will have no choice but to withdraw from Ukraine.
- Consequently, if Europe wants to receive Russian gas after 2018, it has to hassle.
Hence the German effort to ensure Nord Stream 2 is on track. German parliament has recently approved Nord Stream 2 speedy construction. The new 6.6 bln euros in loans have been allocated to the project.
During Sochi visit Merkel confirmed that Germany is fully on board regarding Nord Stream 2 by hinting that EU regulations would slow down the construction and that they should not apply to this pipeline.
Based on the above, you’d think that Putin and Merkel were the best of pals. Putin confirmed that Germany was Russia’s leading trade partner No. 2, after China. Putin also said that the trade volume between Russia and Germany grew by 43% since last year.
Merkel piped in by saying that there are differences, but dialogue is the only way to understand each other’s position.
Where did all the talk about punishing and isolating Russia go? Where are those anti-Russian sanctions? As I predicted since 2014, ‘They’ll huff and puff for a couple of years, and then everything will get back to normal – just like it happened after 2008 Georgia – S.Ossetia war.’ I also said that the appearance of the sanctions will stay, while in reality business and trade will go on, bypassing them.
Predictions on track: 2 years after 2014, Russian trade with Germany is suddenly up by 43%. Let’s also recall that Saakashvili of Georgia was out of his presidency 2 years after he attacked S.Ossetia, and that Abkhazia and S.Ossetia would never return to Georgia. Ukraine is following closely in Georgia’s tracks.
VIDEO: Putin – Merkel joint presser, Sochi, May 2, 2017 (ENG translation)
The political part of the meeting had an entirely different tone. Merkel dragged (excuse me, brought) with her to Sochi an entire entourage of ‘journalists’ representing German MSM. The questions they asked during joint presser can only be characterised as aggressive in their ignorance and dumbness – just confirming a sorry state of the Western MSM. Listen to the questions and Putin and Merkel answers on video above.
Question from a German journalist, ‘Why did Russia interfere in US elections and is Merkel afraid of Russian interference in German election?’
Putin’s exceedingly patient and diplomatic reply: Russia never interfered in other countries’ internal affairs. The opposite is true for the West: it constantly interferes in Russian affairs. Further, Putin explained that allegations of Russian interference in the US elections have never been confirmed; it was just a rumor spread for USA’s internal political reasons; therefore, the German journalist’s assumption of Russia’s interference in German elections is based on a rumor.
Another German MSM representative called the Donbass people ‘separatists,’ to which Putin replied that the civil war and Donbass catastrophe are consequences of an illegal coup and illegal power garb in Kiev. It was Kiev that attacked the people of Donbass, forcing them to defend themselves. Putin also expressed his hope that German MSM would not twist his words and that it will have anough common dicency to publish his answer.
Merkel replied that Germany considers the Kiev authorities to be ‘legal and democratically elected.’
Merkel has made more embarrassing remarks. She implored Putin to ‘look into the reported violations of the rights of minorities,’ namely, gays in Chechnya and Jehovah’s Witnesses.
Then she decided to lecture Putin on human rights. Per Frau Merkel, Russian authorities were not as gentle and nice to protesters as they should’ve been.
Putin did the absolutely correct thing by diplomatically reminding Merkel that the Russian law enforcement are gentlemen of the highest caliber compared to their Western counterparts. PUTIN: “In Europe they have no qualms about indiscriminate use of tear gas, water cannons and batons to disperse demonstrators.”
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P.S. There is one more important reason May 2 was chosen for Merkel’s visit. On May 2 people in Odessa and all over the world commemorated the 3rd anniversary of the Odessa tragedy. Per reports, ahead of May 2 Poroshenko was in a frantic state, admonishing his law enforcement to make absolutely sure no ukro-nazis attack citizens attending the commemorative events. Such attacks are a regular occurrence in today’s Ukraine.
Let me reveal to you what went on behind the scenes: Poroshenko and Kiev were warned by Germany to make sure nothing happens that could look bad for Merkel during her Russian visit. Any violence against peacefully mourning citizens would confirm that Kiev junta is a terrorist regime. If any provocation took place in Odessa, Putin would have a terrific opportunity to rub Merkel’s nose in it.
Therefore, by choosing May 2, Putin allowed the people of Odessa to mourn and commemorate their friends and family in peace.
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What is really behind the recent attempted color revolution in Macedonia? How is it connected to Kosovo, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkish Stream? What does Russia has to do with all this? How is the largest foreign US military base Camp Bondsteel connected to the Macedonia’s Skopje events? (More about Camp Bondsteel in the upcoming LadaRayLive 14 episode!)
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Added 4/8/15: Greece – Russia Breakthrough: What did #Tsipras and #Putin discuss in Moscow – latest updates!
As I predicted in this post and in my earlier article and video (see links below), during today’s meeting in Moscow, Putin and Tsipras signed documents related to the extention of the Turkish Stream through Greece, making Greece into a major Russian gas distribution hub for Europe, including the Balcans, Hungary, Austria and Italy. Russia also offered Greece a credit. To bypass Russian agri sanctions against EU, Putin proposed joint Greek-Russian agricultural ventures. 50% of Greek imports to Russia were agriculture and food. Greece suffers tremendous losses from Russian EU agri ban, and the new joint venture plan is to reverse that . Putin’s video announcement in Russian.
Generally, Russia will continue the strategy of working with separate EU countries that want to do business with Russia, thus bypassing the unfriendly regimes and giving preferential treatement to the friendly ones.
In his statement, Putin also called on EU to terminate any sanctions against Russia, and Russia would then terminate any return sanctions against EU. Putin said that Russia is for working and having cordial relations with the entire “United Europe.”
4/7/15. Original article:
The Greek Dilemma: Between Russia and EU. PREDICTIONS by Lada Ray
Today’s Greek Dilemma: Between Russia and the EU. Or, between Moscow and the Hard Place.
Once the Greek government announced that PM Alexis Tsipras would be visiting Moscow on April 8 to talk to Putin, the howling among EU politicians and MSM became deafening.
The truth is, EU policies make countries that are in financial trouble seek help elsewhere. On one hand, EU talks about unity and EU values, on another creates an impossible situation for countries like Greece. By April 9, Greece has to come up with nearly €450 mln to repay IMF, and the money is scarce.
Right now, the new Greek government wants to play on differences between EU and Russia, which run deep due to Ukraine crisis. Another place where Greece can seek financing is China. But that will only happen after all the negotiations with Russia are complete and depending on their result. In the end, Russia may even broker a Greece-China deal, or the deal may be split between Russia and China. Basically, Russia is ready to consider Greek request, as announced by Russian FM Lavrov.
In a way, Greece is playing Russia and EU against each other. But the long-term consequences run much deeper. They range from Greece declaring bankruptcy and exiting the EU… to getting closer to Russia and China, with the end result of exiting the EU.
Should I say, I told you so? I have described this scenario in my article Predictions: The beginning of the EU End? When Will Greece Exit EU? Who Is Next?.
For more also see this LadaRayLive video: LRL6. Secret Connection: Russian Gas to Turkey-Greek Election-EU Breakup.
In the above pieces, I made a prediction that Greece would leave the EU around 2017. I feel that until then, Greece will try to work with EU in an effort to prevent default and further destruction of its economy, but these attempts won’t bring the desired result. All the relations, financial ties and debt relative to the EU will take some time to unwind. That’s why it will take until 2017 for Greece to disentangle from this mess (more on this topic in my above video and article).
The timing is also related to the timeline of the Turkish Stream, projected to be completed in 2017.
German taxpayer would bear most of the responsibility for bailing out Greece. From this perspective, Germany is right to be stingy. But Greece also has a trump card, which wouldn’t have been used if Germany weren’t squeezing Greece so hard. It is the thorny and long-buried issue of reparations the Nazi Germany never paid for the destruction during WWII. Will Greece get reparations? Not likely. But this toughness will help them bargain for a new bailout, or another payment postponement. This is a good bargaining chip to be sure that can be dangled every time Greece wants something from Germany.
The left-wing Syriza party currently in power is taking this tough bargaining position following its election promises to end austerity and re-negotiate country’s debt. It is clear that Syriza means business.
Relations between Greece and Russia
I said in my above-referenced pieces that Greece potentially can benefit tremendously from the Turkish Stream built by Russia through Turkey to the border with Greece. Russia proposes that Greece participate in the project by extending the pipeline through its territory to allow Russian gas to reach the target countries, such as Austria, Serbia and Hungary. This alone is tremendous incentive for Greece to take a pro-Russian position in the EU.
You’ll recall that the original South Stream from Russia to the EU was supposed to go through Bulgaria. However, after pressure from Brussels and a visit from McCain, Bulgaria suddenly disallowed South Stream through its territory, in direct opposition to the country’s interests. Who needs $750 mln a year in transit fees, new jobs, heavy gas discounts, business tourism and other perks. But Uncle McCain said no, and Bulgaria replied, ‘how high do you want me to jump?’ As a result, Russia cancelled South Stream.
None of what happened with Bulgaria is possible with the current leftist Greek government. McCain is certainly not invited. Many countries are interested in Russian gas going through Greece and this project is very much supported by Austria, Serbia and Hungary, among others.
Apart from that, the ruling Syriza party, being left-wing, is naturally and historically sympathetic to Russia.
Finally, Greece in general is traditionally, since centuries past, is staunchly pro-Russian. Greece, together with Cyprus, is even considered a ‘Russian Trojan Horse’ in the EU.
Greece is Orthodox, like Russia, not Catholic or Protestant. Similarity in religion creates affinity.
In addition, Greeks are eternally grateful to Russians for liberating them from the Turkish Osmanic Empire’s domination – and this is one of those cases when the country actually remembers the good. It’s interesting that at this point Greece, Turkey and Russia are working closely together, illustrating that nothing is eternal and things do change.
Therefore, old friendship and affinity run pretty deep. In this regard, nothing has to be built or created anew. The foundation is there, and all that has to be done is one small step towards each other. How far it will go is a different story because there is certain benefit for Russia if Greece stays in the EU – as I said, someone has to conduct pro-Russian policy within excessively russophobic EU. But there are also huge benefits to Greece turning closer to Russia.
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Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller has warned 2 days ago that Kiev failed to pre-pay for Russian gas. He has said that Gazprom will have no choice but to cut off gas to Ukraine, since pre-payment has failed to be delivered on time. According to the agreement reached in the fall 2014 between Ukraine, Russia and EU, where EU acted as intermediary and guarantor for Ukraine, Kiev must pre-pay for any gas deliveries. The discount gas price was also negotiated. Previously, Kiev regularly failed to pay for gas delivered in advance.
Miller also warned that Russian gas shut-off for Ukraine would mean the danger of gas supply disruptions for the EU – video report in Russian. The reason for that is Ukraine’s siphoning of gas designated for EU that goes through the Gazprom pipeline located on their territory. The tactic of stealing EU’s gas has been implemented by Kiev for years.
In the video below, Vladimir Putin confirms the above, saying that “Gazprom has been fully committed and continues being committed to fulfilling all of its contractual obligations. Ukraine’s pre-payment is only enough for no more than 3-4 days. After that, Gazprom will cease gas deliveries to Ukraine.”
As of 2014, Ukraine owed Russia $5.5bln in unpaid gas debt. Overall, Ukraine owes Russia over $33-36 bln, considering both corporate and state debt. Incidentally, Gazprom was the very last creditor able to collect $3bln (out of $5.5bln) from Ukraine.
The country is bankrupt. Any money that is still there, gets stolen by oligarchs, corrupt politicians and military. Ukraine economy has been destroyed as a result of the February, 2014 coup; as a consequence of severing all ties with Russia – until recently, the largest buyer of Ukraine goods; and due to the devastating civil war with Donbass.
The true state of the Ukraine economy has been concealed through Western loans to keep the coma patient just barely alive. Another way to keep delaying the admission of insolvency is to conduct a war. This is why the war with Donbass is necessary for Kiev.
Several EU countries have been doing the illegal ‘reverse supply’ of the Russian gas to Ukraine, also to keep the patient just barely breathing. In reality, it’s not a reverse supply at all: part of EU gas simply stays in Ukraine, being siphoned off, while Ukraine still illegally collects Gazprom transit fees for this volume.
IMF, US and EU won’t keep supporting Ukraine forever. It’s too big, too corrupt and too broke. Ukraine is needed for the West, and especially for the US, as a convenient tool in order to weaken Russia by maintaining an area of permanent instability on Russia’s borders, and if they are lucky, by dragging Russia into the direct confrontation with Ukraine. There are economic and propaganda reasons as well, such as sabotaging Russian economy, painting Russia as a villain and aggressor, as well as making Russia strain her resources trying to help Donbass, and later Ukraine.
Certainly, US would love to see EU weaken as a result of Ukraine conflict as well. Putting a wedge between Russia and EU (it especially concerns Western Europe/Germany/France), and Russia and Ukraine, is also high on the US list.
The territory known today as Ukraine will be abandoned and thrown out as a used-up lemon as soon as US/West see that it’s too expensive and too unproductive to keep afloat this Titanic. This will happen as soon as they decide that their plans in regards to Russia have failed. Until this realization settles in, unfortunately, they will keep tormenting the poor Ukraine.
The ukro-nazi Kiev regime is both inept and extremely corrupt. The population of Ukraine has been duped by Western/Polish/Soros sponsored and trained MSM. But no one can be duped unwillingly. Part of Ukraine populace wanted to be duped into believing the fairytale that once they sign an association agreement with EU they would start making salaries and pensions on par with European and that everything somehow would become champagne and roses in their corrupt country. In reality, Europeans themselves would have told these naive and lazy Ukrainians that only hard work and taking responsibility for their future could turn things around for them. Doing nothing and hoping for a rich uncle to come and save them would hardly help.
These ukro-sheeple allowed the nazi regime to take over the country, and they allowed the destruction of the economic link with their biggest trade partner and closest neighbor, Russia.
But the most important thing to understand about contemporary Ukraine is this: while the minority was rabidly anti-Russian, and while some believed the Western fairytale, the majority was simply apathetic and indifferent. The reason for this is that many of those who in the West are customarily called ‘Ukrainians,’ in fact do not consider themselves as such, and do not believe in their country. The majority of Ukraine citizens never asked to be separate from Russia and didn’t want the 1991 divorce. They awoke one day to find out in surprise they were foreigners in Russia, the country they considered their motherland. For 23+ years, they lived in the country they didn’t believe in.
According to the official data, 7-8 million Ukrainians choose to live and work in Russia. Out of these, at least 5-6 have been employed in Russia for a long time, the rest are refugees from the present Ukraine crisis and draft dodgers. There are 1.1 million of Ukrainian draft dodgers presently in Russia.
The above doesn’t take into account those former Ukrainians who managed to become Russian citizens. There are lots of these too. This also doesn’t take into account the 2.5 million Crimeans. Crimean population increased from 2.2 million to 2.5 million during the past 8-10 months, as Ukrainians run to Crimea in order to become Russian citizens.
More about apathy. When people in Donbass, Kharkov and Odessa, and even in Kiev, saw ukro-nazis parading in Western Ukraine, they thought, “Let them, as long as they stay in Western Ukraine and don’t bother us.” But ukro-nazis didn’t stop at Western Ukraine.
When they saw ukro-nazis burning tires and throwing Molotov cocktails during 2014 Kiev maidan, they thought, “So what; as long as they stay away from our towns.” Then ukro-nazis came to their towns and villages and started shelling them and burning people alive.
The people of Donbass and Ukraine now have no choice but to notice what they tried hard to ignore: for 23 years they had lived in the artificial conglomerate of oblasts with varying interests and allegiances, loosely and reluctantly tied together by economic infrastructure, and forced to live within one state they never wanted. The long-festering infestation has been finally brought to the surface and exposed to all. It has become impossible to ignore; the situation has gone too far and it has to be dealt with. Where the artificial state called Ukraine used to be, eventually, the new country (or most likely, 2-3 new countries) will have to be rebuilt from ruins.
Ukraine’s future now depends on the inner life force of its people. The higher the life force, the better the prospects for the people’s future and the sooner any country is able to get out of a crisis. Russia’s life force is so strong that, despite all the problems, it has taken Russia less than one decade (1992-2000) to get out of one of the most devastating crises in her long and turbulent history. Ukraine isn’t Russia, as we can clearly see. Read more in-depth analysis in: FREE Earth Shift Report 2: Ukraine, Russia and Falsified History.
However sad and cruel it may sound, Ukraine needs this cleansing through fire and ice, through war and devastation. If all this doesn’t awaken the people of Ukraine, nothing will. As a necessary side effect, the Ukraine crisis already woke up Russian people, as well as the people in Asia and Latin America; it’s even starting to wake up Europeans.
This Kiev government is in fact a demolition crew, there to complete the destruction of Ukraine’s economy.
If US/West can’t have Ukraine, they will make sure the future generations get a wreck of a country, and that Russia has to spend as many resources as possible to resurrect Ukraine economy later. The problem with this way of thinking and operating is that karma is a bitch. As the Russian saying I mentioned previously goes (it’s worth repeating), “don’t dig a grave for someone else – you’ll fall in it yourself.” It may not happen right away, but it will happen.
Read more in PREDICTIONS!
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In the short couple of days after #Syriza won the Greek elections, #Greece has already challenged the EU more than once. Will there be #Grexit? Who is next to rebel (Spain already is)? Will this lead to the EU breakup, and when?
We talk about the EU game changer: how Russia’s discontinuing the South Stream project and announcing the new alliance with Turkey, together with the new Turkish Stream pipeline, influences the future of Eurozone.
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This is additional info and clarification of my original article: Bombshell! Russia to Stop Transit of Gas to EU Through Ukraine! For the complete picture make sure you read both!
I see a lot of confusion surrounding this issue. Therefore, I will clarify a few things here:
1. The statement by the Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller was made. This is not fiction. It is another question whether his statement was misinterpreted – intentionally or not – taken out of context, or intentionally exaggerated by the EU and Ukraine, who are customarily trying to shift the blame to Russia for all their sins, as I wrote in my above-referenced piece.
2. Materials have been published, among other things, on the Pravda.ru site. I went back to Pravda.ru, and so far I’ve been unable to find the two pieces I relied upon in my article.
3. Some small counties, Bulgaria and Croatia, to name a couple (both entirely under the US and Brussels thumb), plus the EU Commission (also headed by a Croatian national, as far as I can see) panicked and started yelling “Russians are coming” – or rather… “Russians are leaving.” Well, since ‘Russians are coming’ is bad and ‘Russians are leaving’ is also bad – what are the Russians to do, I wonder?
4. Ukraine, for its turn, also jumped on the bandwagon of blaming Russia to conceal its usual stealing of Russian gas. The immediate impact was exaggerated by Ukraine on purpose escalating the panic. For years, this is all Ukraine does. The moment any of their many self-made disasters backfires – it is immediately blamed on Russia, while Western MSM and politicians gladly give them the platforms to do so. Same happened in 2008 with Saakashvili of Georgia.
5. Re-read my article, those who didn’t do it carefully the first time – and notice my careful wording. The announcement by Alexei Miller is meant as a geopolitical and economic warning. In the article, I say specifically that at this time EU has no alternative to Russian gas.
Also notice my predictions (see article link above, and more below), in which I say there is still some time to go. Frankly, I hardly remember any time when my predictions didn’t come true, down to the exact timing of the events. It appears it may be right on the dot this time as well. More PREDICTIONS.
6. The materials related to Miller’s announcement were first published by Pravda.ru in Russian exactly how I phrased it in the beginning of my original article. I omitted the links to the source, as the two small pieces were in Russian, and perhaps, I shouldn’t have.
It appears the Daily Mail article was taken from Pravda.ru, plus, from some hysterical statements by EU, Croatia, Bulgaria and Ukraine. At this time, I cannot find the link to the original Pravda.ru articles – it appears the pieces have been relegated to archives. The event was also confirmed by some Russian analysts.
It is not true that RT didn’t run the story, as some suggested. Here is a very carefully worded RT story.
Therefore, it appears Russians, as usual, try not to rock the boat too much. Perhaps the warning was judged to be sufficient at this point. See more on that below.
7. I don’t have the complete information on all the details of how exactly Russia/Gazprom have acted in this case, and why. No one does – everything is pure speculation. Of all people, only Putin has the complete picture and full information, based on which the decisions are made.
What I see and foresee: the situation is VERY MUCH IN A FLUX right now, and for the foreseeable future; decisions are being made in live mode, in response to challenges as they come up.
I want to stress again: we are living through a massively revolutionary EARTH SHIFT on all levels. Putin, Russia, Gazprom have a lot of very serious maneuvering to do every day.
However, here is what is set in stone:
Gazprom/Russia will soon transition out of Ukraine completely. All of Ukraine’s annual transit 63 bln cubic meters of Russian gas to the EU will go exclusively through Turkey. The new Turkish Stream pipeline is being built as we speak.
My predictions regarding EU starting to experience gas shortages will come to pass sooner, rather than later… unless EU snaps out of its fearful submissiveness to the US, multiplied by EU’s own ulterior motives towards Russia. I am also warning that the way EU acts, when it does finally see the light, it may be too late.
What is happening around the world, including violence, confusion, crisis, disasters – will only escalate. I will eventually have full predictions for this decade and beyond as a separate EARTH SHIFT REPORT on LadaRay.info. Stay tuned!
IF humans are still interested in keeping the world as we know it intact, then they should pay close attention and support what Russia does. Keeping your perspective and wits is also a very important thing. I will continue to inform and guide on this blog, YT channel and LadaRay.info.
8. Incidentally, when breaking the news, Russians fully realised this would create a storm in the EU/West, and the howling would start anew. Again, this is just a warning, a heads up, so to speak: ‘Hey, EU we have plenty of leverage over you too, not just the US. If you disregard our interests to this degree, here is what can happen.’ Of course there is no intention of freezing the poor children in Bulgaria.
Notice the big paragraph in my article (can’t miss it – it’s huge) about all the most recent abuses by EU/West/Ukraine against Russia and Donbass? I put all that in there on purpose in order to remind people what Russia has to deal with daily, and therefore, how well justified any action by Russia would be.
9. Any announcement by Gazprom always has huge consequences. It is possible that Alexei Miller’s wording was partially misinterpreted because of wishful thinking. Let’s face it – many people all over the globe are sick and tired of the blatant piracy by Ukraine and blatant lies of the EU. Ukraine and EU – being guilty of massive lies and transgressions they perpetrate daily against Russia – also secretly, in their heart (if there is one available) know Russia can pull the plug at any moment. Many people all over the world are hoping Russia would do so to end this vicious cycle of predatory Western all-permissiveness and ukro-nazi crimes.
Notice, Miller’s statement was left intentionally ambiguous.
ADDED: Found some links! The following posts from Pravda.ru contain additional info: Мечты сбываются, или Ультиматум “Газпрома.” Also: “Газпром”: “Турецкий поток” – единственный маршрут для поставки российского газа в Европу and “Газпром” станет крупнейшим игроком в Турции. Keep in mind, this site, despite its name, is NOT a pro-Kremlin/pro-Putin publication. Actually, often quite the opposite. That said, information in the above posts is accurate.
10. All the above added to the confusion. To wrap this up, here is what I wrote as my original reply to the reader questions. My notes below reflect my original reaction to the Gazprom news by Daily Mail, before I saw additional materials on Pravda.ru. As usual, my original instinct was correct, and as usual, the original reaction contained the concentrated seed of truth. This is the verbatim exchange from a recent post:
This is a bombshell that was dropped by Russia earlier today (Good job, Christa!).
It has been officially confirmed! The head of Gazprom Alexei Miller announced that Russia would discontinue the Ukrainian route for Russian gas transit to the EU. I expected this announcement ever since I broke the news of the Turkey/Russia deal on 12/2/14, but I did expect it in a year or two: read here and here. Looks like the time is getting compressed and the pressure for change is intensifying.
I understand at this time the flow of gas through Ukraine has been restricted to 2/5th of the usual volume. However, it appears it will soon be stopped completely.
Russia to switch fully to the Turkish Stream to move the quantities necessary to satisfy all of European demand. Ukraine up till now was responsible for about 50% of the Russian gas transit to the EU, with Nord Stream, Belarus and Turkey accounting for the rest.
Ukraine, as always during the heating season, has been stealing Russian gas. This is in addition to massive debt Ukraine has with Russia. Russia is by far Ukraine’s largest creditor; gas debt alone constitutes nearly $5.5 bln. Total Ukraine’s debt to Russia, including corporate is well over $30 bln, according to Vladimir Putin.
This is a much bolder move than anyone expected. EU is in shock. According to Gazrpom’s head Alexei Miller, EU didn’t want South Stream Russia tried to build as partners together with the EU. Therefore, Russia will now deliver gas to Turkey, and then to the border between Turkey and Greece. From thereon, it will be EU’s responsibility to build pipelines through its territory.
Gazprom is to become a big player in Turkey, and Turkey in return will enjoy massive gas price discounts and large profits from the resale of gas to the EU and other buyers.
Read related articles from 12/2/14: German Vice Chancellor: No Ukraine in NATO; Russia, Let’s Make Up! and from 12/5/14: Declaration of Cold War: What Chain of Events is US Provoking With New Hostile Move? In these I discuss in detail the Putin/Erdogan agreement on building the alternative pipeline to Turkey!
I see several interesting things at play here:
1. My predictions:
First of all, let’s recall that I said from the beginning of 2014 and many times throughout 2014 that when Russia feels even slightly inconvenienced by the West, off to the East they go. My prediction came true spectacularly within only two or three months, when in May 2014 Russia signed a number of mega-deals with China on gas supply, the Power of Siberia gas pipeline construction, high-speed railroad construction, and much more. Then, Putin also signed massive gas supply deal with Turkey to bypass the unfriendly EU, plus, a massive nuclear energy deal. Turkey is, of course, also a part of the East (Middle East).
Second prediction I made was that Europe would start experiencing gas shortages due to Russia’s re-orientation to the East. I said it would happen a few years from now. It appears my predictions’ time table is accelerating!
See the PREDICTIONS page on top navigation bar, as well as my 2014 articles under RUSSIA category for much more on that. Some of the articles are: What Brought Down Russian Satellite? Angela Merkel’s Biggest Fear? Plus Ukraine Election Prediction; Ukraine Part 7: Russia’s Geopolitics, USA’s Bluff and EU’s Big Mistake; Interview with predictions: The Road to Moscow Goes Through Kiev.
2. It seems Miller and Gazprom are very confident that EU has no alternative to the Russian gas at this time. For the longest time EU and Ukraine had been able to blackmail Russia every year, taking advantage of the fact that the EU was Russia’s largest customer and Ukraine – the largest transit artery.
Russia was customarily accused of various transgressions, the blame was yearly shifted to Russia for any gas flow disruptions due to Ukraine’s stealing of Russian gas; the expense for Ukraine’s theft was also placed on Russia’s shoulders alone, while EU denied any responsibility, always siding with Ukraine. It appears Russia/Gazprom feel that enough is enough and that it’s time to cut the Gordian Knot. The fact that Russia now has strategic agreements with Turkey and China helps Russia’s leverage.
3. This is where the economy and geopolitics mix. Russia warned a long time ago that should EU’s behavior not change, there would eventually be more return sanctions. It appears Russia wasn’t kidding!
Recent events, in which Ukraine and certain EU countries acted strangely, to say the least, apparently were the last drop, reinforcing Russia’s intentions. The events I am referring to were: Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk giving multiple interviews and speeches in Germany accusing Russia of attacking the Nazi Germany and Ukraine, while Merkel stood by him, failing to react to the outright lie. The recent Volnovakha, Donbass tragedy in which 10 people died and scores were wounded when a bus with Donetsk pensioners was hit by a bomb or a mine on the Ukraine side. This incident was immediately blamed on the Donbass self-defence. Ukraine tried to get EU to recognize LNR and DNR as terrorist organizations, while designating Russia as the state aiding terrorism, followed by a new round of sanctions. While the resolution failed, another resolution to adopt a new round of anti-Russian sanctions may pass (I don’t have the latest on that). Meanwhile, per reports, US, France and Poland, among others, have agreed to supply advanced arms to Ukraine. In addition, two ships, one from Australia and one from Canada docked in the Odessa port in the past week to two. Each was full of winter uniforms for the Ukraine army. Poroshenko went to Paris to participate in the Unity March together with Merkel and Hollande, as I wrote here, to express solidarity with the victims of the French terrorist acts, while hundreds and thousands were dying at home unnoticed by anyone. Poroshenko’s trip strangely coincided with Yatsenyuk trying to promote Russia as aggressor in Germany and the Volnovakha bus tragedy. Right after returning from France Poroshenko announced three new waves of mobilization to recruit over 200,000 soldiers – we now know that when they re-start the war with Donbass, they’ll be able to kill more efficiently thanks to all those Australian and Canadian uniforms keeping them nice and warm. In the meantime, the bombings of Donbass have intensified by 10-20 times. For the past week or so the number of dead and wounded from Ukraine’s shelling is greater than for the past 3-4 months combined – exact numbers are not known yet, but the preliminary number is 52 dead during the past few days. As a result of Poroshenko’s visit to Paris and the killing of 10 civilians in Volnovakha, the Astana, Kazakhstan peace conference planned for today, January 15, was cancelled. To wrap up the vicious cycle of events, the man who was instrumental in organizing the Astana peace conference was The French president, Hollande. Please refer back to my article: Urgent! Secret Link Between French False Flag Attacks and Ukraine, in which I also said that Hollande was wavering from the party line, trying to play peacemaker, and terror acts in France were meant to remind him to toe the line. Finally, S&P and other Western agencies are set to lower Russia’s rating to junk status: China/Russia to Launch Own Credit Rating Agency to Rival the Big Three.
4. US has been trying to squeeze Russia out of the EU gas market in order to sell to the EU its own, more expensive, shale gas. The shale industry in the US is in difficult circumstances and many fields have been conserved because of low prices and insufficient international demand for the US shale gas. The banks that financed fracking companies are afraid of not getting their money back; many are on the verge of bankruptcy. Obtaining the lucrative EU market is the best thing for the US. Of course the expensive US shale gas will undermine the EU economy, making EU products less competitive, which will help the US economy and keep EU on a short leash for the US purposes. However, building LNG terminals is expensive, they take a lot of valuable space near ports, and it takes time. Such infrastructure isn’t available for the time being. It appears that despite tough talk, EU is ‘stuck’ with cheaper and readily available Russian gas.
5. World Grand-Master Putin at work! Russia’s leverage has increased exponentially from signing strategic mega-deals with China last May and Turkey last December. It appears Putin has decided this was the right time to play one of Russia’s aces; or if you will, to play Russia’s Turkish Gambit!
6. Last fall, when Russia, Ukraine and EU negotiated, EU promised to vouch for Ukraine’s payment for the ongoing supply of Russian gas. In reality, Ukraine never re-paid $3.1 bln in past arrears due before New Year’s. EU also didn’t vouch for Ukraine’s payments past New Year’s. Therefore, any gas Ukraine receives now is unpaid for, which in itself triggers gas supply stoppage.
7. The Ukraine pipeline infrastructure is Soviet built and was never really maintained by Ukraine. It’s either time to fix it, or to abandon it. Perhaps this is the right time to abandon what cannot be fixed – and I am speaking broadly. Ukraine and EU’s behavior have gone far beyond any permissible or even conceivable. The way Ukraine and EU behave towards Russia can be expressed by the following Russian sayings: ‘to spit into a well from which you drink’ and ‘to saw off the branch you are sitting on.’ It appears that with those who don’t understand good will, reason or logic the only way is the way of an ultimatum.
This is all for now. Till any new info appears…
I am trying to complete my Earth Shift Report. Talk soon.
ADDED 1/17/15. Read new article: Confusion Clarification: Is Russia Stopping EU Gas Transit Through Ukraine?
EARTH SHIFT REPORT update:
1. Grand Experiment Novorossia and the Birth of the New Revolutionary Monetary System.
2. Ruble Wars as the Beginning of the Death of the Dollar.
These two reports are being written as we speak and I will be posting them as they get completed.
The reports will be posted on my new site LadaRay.info. Stay tuned!
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Interesting body language during Ukraine peace talks in Minsk (2014). President of Belarus Lukashenko (center left) inviting Putin to proceed, while subconsciously blocking Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Katherine Ashton of EU.
See more about the telling body language in Lada Ray Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine; Putin, Gorbachev, Poroshenko.
This post is part of
EARTH SHIFT REPORT 1 double feature+
From the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Belarus has been playing a role of a moderator between Ukraine and EU on one side and Russia and Donbass/Novorossia on the other. This culminated in the Minsk accords and ceasefire in E. Ukraine, which admittedly, aren’t being observed very well. But many still believe it’s better than nothing. It is definitely some kind of a start on the way to peace desperately needed by the poor citizens who live under constant threat of bombings. The most important thing Minsk can do is provide a neutral, friendly to both sides, platform in case there is a sudden need in a meeting between warring parties in Ukraine. Play Switzerland, so to speak.
Make no mistake, for little Belarus, this is their star hour. Since 1994, when Lukashenko first became Belarusian president, he’s been labeled the ‘last dictator of Europe’ and tyrant. Belarus has been on and off under sanctions; the beginnings of the newly independent post-Soviet republic were very humble. All this happened because, unlike most, Belarus refused to forget the Soviet past and refused to give up their economy to please the West.
I wrote previously that in the early ’90s, Ukraine was touted by the West as the MOST developed of the USSR’s three Slavic republics (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus) – even more so than Russia. Starting in 1990-91, with its educated population, spectacular agricultural soils and developed tech industry (built by Russia during Soviet times) Ukraine was trumpeted as ‘most likely to succeed’ among all post-Soviet republics.
Western ‘experts,’ with some Russian neo-liberals and oligarchs jumping on the bandwagon, predicted that Russia would turn into a no-man’s land, and slowly disintegrate all by herself. Just goes to show how inept and little-minded Western and neo-liberal Russian ‘experts’ are. Needless to say, none of these ‘predictions’ came true.
For real predictions that actually do come true, read my PREDICTIONS.
At the same time as Ukraine was given prime time, Belarus was either neglected and laughed at in the West, or maligned.
As an aside: it is now crystal clear WHY the West praised Ukraine in the early ’90s, while putting Russia down. The plan was to put as big of a wedge as possible between the two closest people – Russians and Ukrainians, and to make Russians feel inadequate and incapable of resistance in the midst of the wholesale demolition of the Russian economy. Something similar, but accompanied with a civil war, is happening now in Ukraine. Note, the Kiev coup and violent overturn of Yanukovich took place after Yanukovich refused to sign the EU association agreement that would rob Ukraine blind.
The above strategy towards Russia worked for a time, while Yeltsin was in power. But the moment Putin came to power, the tide changed dramatically. I observed Putin since the moment he appeared on world stage in 2000. Unlike American ‘analysts’ and talking heads, I knew from the very first moment that a massive change was about to begin. Putin was very smart to lay low for a while, until he gathered enough allies and strength to start acting, while US elites for 2-3 years labored under a misapprehension that he would be just as easy as Yeltsin.
I wrote about Putin in my mystical thriller THE EARTH SHIFTER (character’s name is President Dobrov). I will discuss Putin in detail in the upcoming THE PUTIN ENIGMA Report, which you will find soon at LadaRay.info. Also, a great piece to read is: FREE Earth Shift Report 1: Is Putin Part of NWO?
While the West was concentrating on Russia, Ukraine and other strategic locations, Belarus remained in the shadows. Lukashenko, when he came to power, became that tough leader who managed to keep the country together and provide stability. This allowed Belarusians to slowly build on Soviet platform, developing what we now understand was a rich and profitable inheritance. While Russia was being looted by oligarchs and their Western backers, while Ukraine was also looted by oligarchs, falling at the same time deeper and deeper into its self-inflicted delusion and mass psychosis, Belarus kept its head down and worked very hard. Belarusians are very hard-working, friendly and rather low-key people.
During the Russian Empire days Belarus was one of the poorest territories of Russia. They survived on potatoes alone and were to the 19th century Russia what Ireland was to Western Europe: a tucked away on the western-most outskirts and poor like church rats territory no one was interested in. Perhaps that memory of extreme poverty and obscurity is what made Belarusians both cunning and hard-working. Without any oil, gas, or any other natural resources to speak of, Belarus managed to pull out in much better shape than once much richer neighboring Ukraine, Latvia and Lithuania (latter two – EU members).
Most post-Soviet republics squandered their formidable Soviet inheritance, resulting in decimation of industry, mass exodus of population, and other catastrophes. Ukraine is the best example of that – I write about it here: FREE Earth Shift Report 2: Ukraine, Russia and Falsified History.
Next to Belarus, another example of being able to preserve their heritage despite all odds is the unrecognized Pridnestrovie (Transnistria). More about it here: Moldova Explosion Coming 2: Coalition “Moldova’s Choice-Customs Union” and LRL2: Explosion Coming! Moldova/Transnistria – Eurasian Union vs EU.
Despite sanctions and constant fighting with the West, Lukashenko did several pretty brilliant things for his country and people:
1. Unlike most post-Soviet republics, he preserved the Soviet industrial and agricultural inheritance – and built on it.
2. Kept the country stable.
3. Managed to stay friends with Russia.
4. As a result of a special relationship with Russia, Belarus managed to receive the world’s lowest price on Russian gas and very favorable Russian loans.
5. Let’s not forget: Belarus, together with Kazakhstan and Russia is one of the three founding members of Eurasian Union.
Right to left: Putin of Russia, Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Lukashenko of Belarus – founding members of Eurasian Union
All the above factors, but especially the cheap, cheap gas paved the way to the so-called ‘Belarusian miracle.’ Belarus pays something to the tune of $165 for its gas, which is about the same as heavily subsidized internal Russian price. Compare that to $350-400+ EU pays. The new price for gas for Ukraine is about $385, however, they don’t pay that either. Such gas price makes Belarusian economy extremely competitive internationally. Obviously, without Russian almost free gas and Russian subsidies Belarusian miracle they are so proud of would have never happened.
The above is an illustration of how Russia robbed herself to subsidize other republics, and some other poor countries, during Soviet times. Some readers asked me how Russia could have disengaged in the ’90s from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other republics, which allowed the US/West to infiltrate them resulting in color revolutions and anti-Russian pro-NATO states on Russian borders. Of course, it was a bad geopolitical decision to disengage. Yet, it can be understood: Russia always paid disproportioned price for supporting others, at her own expense. This made the core Russian population resentful.
Presently, Russia is attempting to balance own interests with the necessity to support allies.
What is Belarusian miracle?
Belarus preserved all of the industrial factories Russia built on its territory during Soviet times. And then, Belarus expanded and modernized them. Today Belarus exports its machinery to over 100 countries; its busses, tractors and heavy trucks are world-known. Belarus is also well-known in the garment industry. They make clothes for export and Belarussian cheap labor (compared to Europe) is often used by Italian designers. They produce much higher quality stuff than China. Traditional Belarusian agriculture also developed well and became quite efficient. Today, Russians go to Belarus to learn agricultural management.
Roads in Belarus – the transit country between Russia and EU – are BETTER than in the EU. The country is incredibly clean everywhere. This is how I remember growing up in the Soviet Union: everything, everywhere was very clean. This heritage Belarus also preserved.
As I mentioned before, there are no oligarchs in Belarus; there are rich people, but fewer than in neighboring countries. At the same time, average citizens feel more protected by the state. Pensioners get decent state pensions and subsidies, feeling secure. Inflation is high, but so far it’s manageable. Utilities and communal (housing/yard maintenance, water, gas, heat) payments are a fraction of what people pay in Russia (where they are not high either), and especially in the EU. All education, including college, is free. Students get paid stipendium for good grades. This is another Soviet heritage that Belarus preserved. Compare that to recent announcement by Ukraine that school pupils after 9th grade will have to pay to attend 10th and 11th grades if they want to complete secondary education.
In the summer of 2014 I visited Belarus. Everything I describe is from personal experiences. Of course there are problems – which country doesn’t have them. But overall, there are undeniable achievements.
Sly fox Lukashenko and international relations
Throughout the years, there were certain disputes and gas price disagreements between Russia and Belarus, as well as attempts by Belarus to capitalize on Ukraine and EU’s pressure on Russia. There were attempts to blackmail Russia due to gas transit. 20% of Russian gas to the EU goes through Belarus. Belarus often plays on Russia-West differences in order to get what they want (like a child of the divorced parents, who would play mom and dad). These games are relatively successful. It’s a balancing act for everyone involved, to be sure.
A reader once asked me about the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. My opinion of him hasn’t changed: he is an old sly fox. Lukashenko isn’t stupid; nor is Belarus likely to turn into Ukraine.
Read my article about US lifting sanctions against Cuba: Weakness or Cunning? Why US decided to End 50-Year Standoff with Cuba Now. I said that small and in-between countries can benefit during this era of mega-clashes among the giants, if they are smart. One could make a case for it being manipulative, just like the aforementioned spoiled kid playing divorced parents against each other.
Lukashenko is doing just that. He is using a conflict between Russia and EU/US to cozy up to the West.
Presently, A huge problem with Belarus for Russia is that taking advantage of Russia’s sanctions against the EU agriculture imports, Belarus has become a massive smuggling center. They would bring in tuna or oysters, usually imported from France or Italy, and slap their own labels to re-export that to Russia, trying to pass it as their own product. Considering Belarus doesn’t have a sea…
Other things they re-appropriate and re-export this way are fruits and veggies they never grew, fancy French cheeses they never made, and even things like jeans. While Russia is trying to crack down on Belarusian smuggling, Russia still needs Belarus. So, I don’t see this conflict going very far. Basically, it’s akin to an argument in the family – eventually the family will gather for dinner again, as if nothing happened.
Why does Lukashenko need Western love?
1. Lukashenko desperately needs loans. Belarusian miracle doesn’t come cheap. Belarus is due to pay out $4bln in interest soon.
2. Elections are coming up. Lukashenko always cozies up to the West in such periods to try to prevent a color revolution they always plan around such dates to attempt unseating him. After the elections everything returns back to normal.
3. Lukashenko, being the sly fox that he is, uses any conflict between Russia and the West to get as much preferential treatment from both as possible, while it lasts. There is also the issue of pride and self-importance. Belarus has been customarily passed over for attention. The result is a burning desire to play a bigger role on world stage. Can’t blame them.
4. Belarus is trying to position itself as a moderator and go-in-between transit country between EU and Russia. AND THEY WANT TO CHARGE THROUGH THE NOSE FOR THAT. What else is new? Hence investment in the best roads possible.
5. Opening a joint Ukraine-Belarus TV channel is done for the same purpose: ‘See, how good we are as a moderator and peacemaker.’ It’s a good will demo of sorts. It must be understood that this neutral moderator position of Belarus is equally good for both Ukraine/EU and Russia/Donbass. There must be neutral grounds to discuss matters of war and peace.
My assessment is that the cunning Lukashenko, in his own way, is contributing to pulling back together what in Russia is called ‘the three brotherly nations – Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians.’
Based on the opening of the joint Belarus-Ukraine TV channel and other signs some read as worrying, a reader has asked me if I saw Belarus as turning into another Ukraine.
No, I absolutely do not. While Lukashenko is alive, he won’t let that happen. Belarusian citizens looking at the mess across the border, are very happy they have Lukashenko.
Of course, there are other objective reasons, as described above:
1. Belarusian economy is in an incomparably better shape than Ukrainian. In big part, maidan and Kiev coup took place because of the disastrous, pre-bankruptcy state of Ukraine’s economy and its wholesale looting by local oligarchs and foreign interests.
2. Unlike Ukraine, Belarus doesn’t have oligarchs, therefore, no one internally to finance and sustain a color revolution. Of course, external pressure remains. US and EU still do everything to unseat Lukashenko every time there are elections. Rioters get bussed in from Poland and Lithuania to incite violence. But Belarus KGB (yes, it’s still called KGB – talk about preserving Soviet heritage!) is on top of it.
Incidentally, there is censorship in Belarus.
3. Lukashenko is real leader and he won’t do what Yanukovich did in February. Incidentally, Lukashenko has many times announced how he feels about Yanukovich and his inadequate actions during the Kiev coup. He said publicly that Yanukovich was supposed to stay and fight, that he needed to be more decisive in countering the coup, and that he should have died fighting, like a captain of a ship. As we know, Yanukovich escaped from Ukraine barely alive. By making such statements, Lukashenko isn’t simply expressing his views on Ukraine conflict – in fact, he is letting Belarusians and the West know what he will do should such situation arise in his country. This is basically an announcement that if anyone attempts this scenario in Minsk, they won’t get very far.
After the above assessment of Ukraine deposed leader’s actions, after being buddy-buddy with Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, Lukashenko still manages to stay friends with Yanukovich and his family, which is a testament to how cunning and shrewd of a diplomat he is.
Many dislike the fact that Belarus isn’t helping Donbass, or that Lukashenko hugs and shakes hands with the Kiev junta leaders. I would say it’s a useful stance even if it seems a bit unsavory. Diplomacy and maneuvering may often seem this way to an outsider. But without reaching a compromise, peace and conflict resolution is rarely possible in our highly polarized world.
In short – no, Belarus has no chance of following Ukraine, although attempts to unseat Lukashenko will continue. Lukashenko, for his part, will continue maneuvering between Russia and the West, Russia and Ukraine.
Belarus is well-positioned in the EAU. That said, of course Belarus will exploit its transit country status and its status of the only country located between Russia and the EU that is capable and willing to be a bona fide go-in-between. Same goes for Ukraine. Belarus will milk for all it’s worth the Ukraine conflict to raise its international status as the country-moderator.
What is EU up to?
The above notwithstanding, I received news that EU is trying to slowly correct the anti-Russian sanctions disaster by going broader. Will that have an effect remains to be seen. There are indications that EU is courting Belarus and Kazakhstan trying to distance them from Russia. If that kind of behavior continues, this won’t bridge any gaps. All it will do is create even more distrust.
EU now attempts to reach out (read: seduce, entice) these other Eurasian Union members. The idea is to get an in with Russia/ or influence Russia through them. It’s a very convoluted and complex game. German VC recently spoke about that proposal. French president Hollande recently paid a surprise visit to Kazakhstan for secret talks with Nazarbayev. On the way back from Kazakhstan, Hollande made a surprise stop in Moscow and met with Putin. Hollande admitted that it was in fact Kazakh President Nazarbayev who encouraged him to stop in Moscow for a chat with the Russian President. The new Belarus – EU warming up also plays into this scenario.
All in all, I can absolutely say that both Lukashenko of Belarus and Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan are solid leaders, and right where they are supposed to be. Their role is to serve as vitally important links and help the Russian leader Putin in the re-formatting of the world system. More about that in future Earth Shift Reports.
Putin and Hollande in France, May 2014
Understandably, EU is trying to find ways of a round-about compromise with Russia. If this is sincere, Russia would welcome that. In my opinion, Russia has to be very careful not to fall into a new trap, if it turns out EU’s real intention is to distance Kazakhstan and Belarus from Russia. Of course this is also happening at the same time as US and UK are escalating the conflict, which isn’t encouraging (I’ll have more about that soon).
In the final analysis, the courting of Kazakhstan and Belarus won’t go very far. EU has to be careful not to burn even more bridges than they already have. I’d be cautiously optimistic about the EU move. It’s high time constructive and reasonable forces prevailed in the EU.
I wanted to end on an optimistic note, but I simply have to add this. Unfortunately, I have come to a conclusion that for as long as Merkel is in power, there will be no meaningful movement towards cooperation and dialogue. After giving Merkel a lot of benefit of the doubt, I have become convinced that she is a secret russophobe. She has been that all her life, but being a politician, she has been hiding it very well. I wrote about my assessment of how she grew up in some of my previous articles.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel
In addition, Merkel has been compromised by NSA surveillance. There is no doubt in my mind that NSA has very damaging dirt on her, therefore pulling her strings as necessary. For these two reasons a meaningful dialogue with the EU will be very difficult for Russia, until the change of guard in Germany.
A supremely interesting and reveailing discussion continues in the comment section! Remember to check it out!
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Related new post: Putin’s Full Speech at 2015 UNGA: Do You Realize What Kind of Monster You’ve Created? This post includes my translation of Belarus President Alexandr Lukashenko’s new speech at the UN General Assembly 2015.
Ohhh…seriously, I am getting a tiny bit tired reiterating time after time: ‘I TOLD YOU SO!’ From the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, in my articles about Ukraine, Germany and German Chancellor Merkel, I said time and again that Ukraine would never be admitted into the EU – and forget NATO. That US would try to push Ukraine’s memberships through, with no result whatsoever, except creating more animosity and crisis on European continent, which in fact is their goal to begin with. As usual, see much more in PREDICTIONS and related articles below.
I also said that after yelling and screaming (and sanctions), EU will cool off eventually and recall that really, truly, honestly…they want to be friends with Russia. Interesting how it happens every time the heating season starts in earnest.
On referenced video (watch on YT in Russian) – German Vice Chancellor Zigmar Gabriel: ‘Germany will never allow Ukraine to be admitted into NATO. US has been putting pressure on Germany, but on the Federal level at least such decision will not pass as this would destabilize the situation even further. Germany needs to do what Austria is suggesting – engage new channels for negotiations with Russia. Internal Ukraine conflict is aggravated by Ukraine’s conflict with Russia. Ukraine’s internal conflict cannot be solved without solving a conflict with Russia. It seems to me that we all in Europe, Germany can’t do it alone, have to formulate a new policy towards Russia. We are not giving up on the idea of a European Russia. We have to be united in this and we are very interested in Russia being a part of Europe. We can’t afford Europe’s division because of the Russia issue.’
Why has this statement from German VC appeared now? Division within Merkel’s ruling party? Are her own people angry at her? Perhaps to a degree. I’d be, if I were them. But even more so, I think these are the true underlying reasons:
1. Note, this statement is by Merkel’s underling. Merkel is on the hook with NSA, who have massive dirt on her after listening in on her phone conversations. This keeps her on a short leash. I wrote about that issue in a couple of earlier articles. This is why Merkel suddenly stopped demanding that German gold held (or rather, that ‘used to be held’) at the NY FED be repatriated. Besides, Merkel has already made so many aggressive and threatening remarks about Russia that she couldn’t possibly switch to a conciliatory tone – you need a fresh face to make a statement such as this.
2. Clearly, winter is upon us and all of a sudden Germany remembered why they need to try to be friends with Russia. That’s right, Gazprom and Russian gas.
3. Not only the population, but also German business class is rebelling. Merkel, reportedly is ‘tired of receiving calls from industrialists asking her to reverse anti-Russian sanctions.’
A few days ago a curious news crossed the wires. One of the prominent German industrialists who was a long-time donor of Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Union, announced he was forming a group of industrialists who would stop supporting Merkel and CDU and would instead invest in the opposition.
4. Ukraine in today’s configuration and with this government is a loose cannon, whose only desire and goal is siphoning as much money as possible from the EU and the West in general (since Russia refused to subsidize it any more), while Ukraine oligarchs, armed thugs and politicians continue the wholesale demolition and looting of the economy. The biggest donor to Ukraine would be Germany. For terrified Germany (and EU) Ukraine is becoming a financial weight that is dragging them to the bottom.
To me this outcome was clear from the beginning – question is, why wasn’t it clear to EU politicians? Those who haven’t yet, may want to check out: FREE Earth Shift Report 2: Ukraine, Russia and Falsified History.
5. EU today cannot exist peacefully and prosperously without good relations with Russia. Unfortunately, EU politicians are too slow or too sold-out to grasp any of this. They only start seeing the light when crisis is staring them personally in the eye. In my new video ProjectEarthShift 1:Universal Scale of Consciousness (life-diminishing calibrations 0-199) I explain how this works. The example I provide is Angela Merkel. Her calibration is 184 – the level of pride. On this level people (and countries) are so self-centered and so egotistical that they start acting only when there is a threat to their own stability. They are utterly disinterested in truth, justice and saving or helping others. Their moral and truth compass is so off that they see black as white and vice versa, until it hurts them personally.
There are a few politicians in the West that are different, one of them being Milos Zeman, President of the Czech Republic, who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. Read: Desperate Obama, A Voice of Sanity from Czechia and Anti-Russian Sanctions. There are sane politicians in Germany too. They speak up against this madness, which only benefits the Anglo-American elites. Incidentally, it has been shown time and again by honest German journalists that German MSM is in bed with the US, doing their bidding by spreading propaganda.
By contrast, see what the world looks like, and what can be accomplished, when people calibrate at life-affirming levels: ProjectEarthShift 2: Universal Scale of Consciousness (life-affirming/ life-creating calibrations 200-1000).
6. The division and rebellion within the EU is growing. Czech and Hungarian leaders are making statements of dissent. Austria isn’t happy about sanctions. Finland said: don’t even come to us with sanctions any more. Greece, Italy and Spain are trying to quietly, on country to country level, circumvent sanctions. Serbia (non-EU, but being dragged in) said they were being pressured to join sanctions, but they wouldn’t.
7. And how do you like this precious latest bit! I seriously think you couldn’t invent it if you tried! Turns out the reason France couldn’t deliver the Mistral carriers to Russia, thus incurring billions in penalties and contract losses, as well as a loss of business credibility and future deals with Russia, is because POLAND leaned on France and made them forfeit. This incredible bit of news was confirmed by the Russian newscast Vesti on Channel 1 Russia. Is it because Poland is now so strong, or is it because France is becoming so weak? Recently, France had to swallow the insult from the US, when US fined BNP Paribas close to $10 bln for violating US sanctions. As my readers know, I call Poland one of the ‘US Trojan Horses in Europe.’
This is what a catastrophic loss of sovereignty looks like! It is when a country formerly considered one of the Great Powers would sacrifice national interests to please its boss. De Gaulle isn’t just turning – he is spinning in his grave. France is made to be an example and a warning for others. All this is being closely observed, and the alarm bells are going off in all EU capitals.
8. And here is the final, and very strong, worry for Germany and EU. They see that Russia is successfully pivoting to the EAST, again as I predicted from the beginning. Read more in Predictions and related articles. Since February-March, 2014 I said that ‘if Russians feel even slightly inconvenienced by sanctions, off to the East they go.’ Since then we saw Russia sign massive deals with China, Central Asian countries, Iran, South American countries. I also have predicted that EU will start experiencing gas shortages after Russia transitions to the new markets. This is confirmed by the latest news:
Just in! While in negotiations with Turkish President Erdogan, Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia withdraws from the South Stream project, which would supply gas directly to Europe bypassing Ukraine (also as predicted: I said, I believe in March, that South Stream wasn’t important to Russia any more and that she didn’t care if it continued or not). Putin announced together with Erdogan that instead, Russia will concentrate on expanding the gas pipeline to Turkey and in creating in Turkey and Greece an international gas hub for further gas deliveries elsewhere. Putin specifically said that if Europe isn’t interested in Russian gas, it will be sold to other countries, hinting at future gas shortages for the EU.
The above breaking news is noteworthy. I will either have a separate article about that, or I will include this in my upcoming THE PUTIN ENIGMA Report.
THE PUTIN ENIGMA REPORT IS COMING SOON.
I AM PRESENTLY WORKING ON IT, BUT WITH MANY OTHER THINGS GOING ON IN LIFE AND THE WORLD, IT IS TAKING ME A LITTLE LONGER TO COMPLETE. I WANT TO DO A VERY THOROUGH JOB. THE REPORT WILL DELVE BOTH INTO GEOPOLITICS AND INTO SOME VERY INTERESTING METAPHYSICS AND HIGHER REALMS.
IF YOU DON’T SEE ME ON THE BLOG FOR A FEW DAYS, IT MEANS I AM WORKING ON THE REPORT.
STAY TUNED! IT’S WORTH IT!
You can also find my predictions in:
Interview with predictions: The Road to Moscow Goes Through Kiev
Latest from Beijing: On the sidelines of the 2014 APEC Summit in Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping have signed 17 economic cooperation agreements, including the new gas supply framework agreement. In addition, on Monday Putin will meet privately with heads of Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan.
The framework of the new mega-deal being signed between Russia and China seals Russia’s resolute Asia pivot, as I have predicted since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. In addition to the Eastern Route pipeline running through Vladivostok and servicing Eastern Siberian and the Far East deposits, the new ‘Western Route’ pipeline running through the Altai Mountain range will now send Russian gas to China from Western Siberia as well.
This new deal will allow Russia to sell an additional 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to China for 30 years. This is the next leg in the multi-prong multi-year strategic partnership program between Russia and China.
The first in this massive strategic initiative was the 30-year mega-deal signed by Gazprom in May to supply 38 bcm a year to China using Eastern Siberia/Far East gas deposits. The Eastern Route pipeline is already being built through Mongolia, which stands to gain generous transit fees, thus becoming an important strategic partner for both Russia and China. For more on this see my article from 9/4/14: Predictions Coming True! Russia Pivots to Asia: Putin goes to Mongolia and Opens Power of Siberia Pipeline to China.
Subsequent steps were the recent energy, trade and finance agreements between Russia and China, signed one month ago. These agreements included a currency swap worth 150 billion yuan ($25 billion) intended partly to reduce the influence of the US dollar.
The new Western Route deal will double the volume of Russian gas going to China. This will make China Russia’s No.1 customer, surpassing the EU.
Since February-March 2014, in my articles, YT videos and interviews, as well is in my predictions, I had been saying the following:
1. Russia is the ultimate planetary balancer. When there is an imbalance, as we presently see happening with the West, Russia will rebalance the status quo.
2. ‘If Russians feel even slightly inconvenienced by Western sanctions – off to the East they go.’ Russia’s pivot to the East is now shaping up.
3. I also predicted that in several years time Europe will start experiencing serious gas shortages as Russian gas gets diverted to China. And they will have absolutely no one but themselves to blame. 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the solution for Europe is to break down the new wall US, with Poland’s and Baltics’ help, is so diligently building between Europe and Russia.
4. I also warned that the USA’s goal is to drive a wedge between Russia and Europe to prevent their growing cooperation. At the same time, the goal is also to weaken Russia as its main geopolitical competitor, and to weaken Europe as its main know-how economic competitor.
Wake up, Europeans! It’s up to you to pivot towards the future, not the past!
Video (incl. gas route maps): Putin, Xi Jinping sign framework gas supply deal via ‘Western route’:
This just in: Ukraine may stop Russian gas transit to EU. Kiev is considering a package of 26 sanctions against Russia, targeting just about all important industries and facets of life, including Russian gas transit, machinery, aviation, transport, military, medicine and more. See report from RT, including a map of current Russian gas pipelines through Ukraine and Belarus.
I wonder, do these geniuses in Kiev government even understand who they are really hurting? Russian medicine ban hits mostly their own citizens, who can’t afford expensive Western medicine. Ban on military/heavy machinery/aviation and other industry cooperation with Russia will create an estimated 3-4 million unemployed. Russia is (was) Ukraine’s largest trading partner. These unemployed will be qualified engineers and skilled workers. They will have 2 choices: to emigrate to the EU and become taxi drivers and janitors, OR come to Russia and work there as skilled workers and engineers on new factories Russia is building to replace the old Ukraine industrial capacities. As I said before, Russia is fast becoming what America was in the 20th century – the destination for the masses of emigrants to escape disasters at home, and to find a better life. Everyone knows how much USA benefitted throughout the 20th century from the mass inflow of immigrants. So will Russia.
Russian UN representative, Vitaly Churkin, said that presently Russia provides refuge for 820 thousand refugees from Ukraine. New RT video: #Ukraine children and elderly seek refuge in #Russia – Жители Украины вывозят стариков, детей в Россию. People say that they had to run from bombings by Kiev army, that they had to live in cellars to save their lives, no one was paying them salary, no water, no gas or food. Their cities turned into dead zones and ghost towns, as everyone left.
As to the Russian gas, I think Kiev definitely should stop Russian gas transit to Europe! I am not joking! I think it’s an excellent move! Again, the geniuses sitting in Kiev will be punishing Europe much more than Russia, and they will be punishing Ukraine as well. This may indeed be a very cold winter, which may finally wake up Europe to the facts: who they have been supporting in Kiev and who their real friends are. I am not too enthusiastic as to the voluntary good will and reason of the Europeans. Sometimes, humans need a push in a form of a real disaster in order to wake them up to reality.
There are only two possibilities why Kiev would be gearing for the Russian gas shut-off, and I suspect that both are true:
1. The Kiev “authorities” are so dumb that they simply can’t grasp what kind of disaster they are about to inflict on themselves and Europe.
2. They are fulfilling a direct order from their handlers in Washington.
Let’s recall that in addition to hurting Russia, US major goal is to also undermine Europe as its biggest economic competitor, and to subdue Europe into a forced symbiosis with the US, to Europe’s detriment. US understands that slowly but surely they are losing the world hegemony and their grip on power, as Europe pivots to the East, as BRICS become more active, and as most of the world perceives US as aggressor and super-bully.
As part of its plan to keep Europe dependent, US is trying to tear EU away from the Russian gas supply and force it into buying its expensive shale gas. As we know, #fracking as barbaric method of gas extraction, also destroys and poisons American land and groundwater.
Of course, in the end, the scheme of separating EU from Russian gas will fall through. But in the meantime, US is poised to inflict a lot of damage on the EU economy. However, this will also force Europe to expedite the construction of South Stream and filling to capacity of the Opal pipeline, bypassing Ukraine.
This can inflict some damage on the Russian economy as well; however, as I said before, Russian economy is in desperate need of a healthy restructuring in order to get rid of the hiccups and distortions of the ’90s. Russians were too comfortable to start such massive restructuring on their own. The external push, such as events in Ukraine and Western sanctions, are forcing Russia to start this very necessary process. The result can only be one: Russian economy will emerge out of it much stronger than before.
I previously predicted that this decade, and into the 2020s, is the Time of Russia. Russia is destined to come as a major winner out of everything that is happening now. And note: peacefully, without dirtying her hands with direct participation in a military conflict.
China will also be a big winner. Other winners: Latin America, all BRICS, and those countries that will join Eurasian Union.
It doesn’t mean that the US won’t do everything to prevent this from happening easily and peacefully (as is evident from current events), but they won’t succeed. The result will also be that Europe at large will get disgusted with their American partner. The movement of Europe towards cooperation with China/Asia, Russia being the glue and the bridge between the two, will intensify this decade, and next.
Of course, the sooner EU changes its own policies and rescinds anti-Russian sanctions, the harder it will be for Kiev and US to continue pushing for conflict and destruction. However, I foresee that only a very dramatic shock will make EU revise its policies. Ukraine shutting off the gas valve may become such a shock.
Another prediction is that unless US changes its policies, it may become largely isolated as a result.
Finally, in the beginning of the Ukraine crisis I made a prediction that Ukraine will become a part of the Eurasian (Customs) Union with Russia between 2016 and 2018. Some have interpreted this to mean that only eastern part of Ukraine, having seceded, will join Eurasian Union.
In fact, I believe most of today’s Ukraine will join Eurasian Union, possibly as 2 separate states, or as one loosely federalized state. The Kiev junta is so over their heads that they will have another maidan on their hands, most likely by, or before, next spring. The next maidan will be just as non-sensical as the 2014 maidan was. However, eventually, very different people will come to power in Ukraine. I also said that Ukraine may become diminished, as Novorossia secedes. Very likely, there will be two, or possibly three, different centers in Ukraine, which will become separate states. Western Ukraine separation is a question mark. Instead of separation, there may be broad autonomy, depending on how disgusted people will be with Kiev at the time. At least two of these parts – most of today’s Ukraine (possibly all of today’s Ukraine) will join Eurasian Union. Ukraine as it existed for 23 years, will never return to its past form.
Eventually, more territories and countries in Europe will join Eurasian Union in some capacity as a way to tear themselves from the US and EU.
Here you can read most of my original PREDICTIONS. Additional new predictions will be posted as time allows.
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I am finally back home and the long-awaited “Is Putin Part of NWO?” article is coming next!
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Russia may ban EU flights across Russian territory
As a result of the EU sanctions against the Russian civil aviation industry, at least one Russian airline “Dobrolet,” had to cease operations. Dobrolet flies to Crimea and now Crimea is in a difficult situation due to a very limited airline connection with Russia. Crimea presently doesn’t share land border with Russia.
Dobrolet Airlines is trying to secure aircraft leasing deals in China and Singapore to replace Western jets it is banned from using. It appears, Dobrolet is also in negotiations with Boeing to purchase 16 jets. I know they are in dire straits, but my recommendation would be NOT to deal with Boeing, considering recent Boeing 777 downing in Ukraine, company’s US origins and reputation.
In response, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is considering response sanctions against the EU. The proposal is to ban EU flights across Russia. Considering Russia covers 1/6th of the Earth’s land mass and occupies large parts of both Europe and Asia, it is a big problem for European flights to Asia and the Far East. All EU flights to Japan, S. Korea and other Asian countries go across Russian territory. This saves 3-4 hours flight time and $40,000 per flight in fuel cost. Russia may ban some, or all, such flights, making planes take longer and more difficult routes.
There is no final decisions yet, but it is expected soon. Meanwhile, EU airline stocks are taking a hit in anticipation of the Russian sanctions.
Gas sanctions on the horizon?
EU, when imposing their sanctions, was very careful not to touch the Russian gas industry, as first and foremost, the EU would be hurting itself. It has become known that Gazprom has sent a letter to all its trading partners, proposing to trade its gas for rubles, bypassing the dollar entirely. So far, the tone of the letter is mild, but it may change, depending on the response. We discussed this in some of my previous articles. The reason Russia was unable to transition to the ruble-based gas trade, despite trying for years, is because Russia’s main trading partner, EU, is thoroughly under the US thumb. Even if the EU wanted to transition our of the dollar trade, they can’t as US won’t let them.
However, the circumstances have changed, and Russia will eventually sell more gas to China than to Europe. The anti-Russian sanctions backdrop may make Russia more motivated to press for ruble-based trade with the EU very soon. US is mortally afraid of this, and this is why it will continue twisting EU’s arms. US will also use all available methods to try to scare Russia. This is why, unfortunately, US will continue war in Ukraine for as long as Ukrainians allow them to be on their territory. Let’s face it – this war is conducted, masterminded and financed by the US – and Ukrainians are just the convenient dupes and cannon fodder. US is after Russia – Ukraine is just a side effect.
If you haven’t yet, it’s useful to watch my two related videos, analysing this topic: Russia-China Deal of the Century – Huge Blow to US/EU and Predictions: Russian Gas and Russia-China Deals.
In addition to destroying Russia, which is the prime objective of the US/UK and their cronies, they wouldn’t mind weakening the EU. By fighting with Russia, by imposing sanctions, EU is happily walking into the trap US/UK so skillfully laid out for them. This isn’t the first time: 100 years ago Europe was dragged into WWI after Great Britain successfully pitted Austria-Hungary/Germany and Russia against each other. The result was the most disastrous century in recent human history. WWII happened the same way.
I wonder, will humans ever learn?
Meanwhile, many Russians feel their government is being too soft with their response to Western sanctions. There are demands for tougher response to the US and EU sanctions, including gas supply sanctions against the EU. If EU continues on this destructive path, they MAY get gas shortages just in time for Christmas. At least, that’s what some Russians demand their government do.
Russians also demand that their government boot out the ‘fifth column’ out of the country’s media and government.
It is important to emphasize that Putin can’t afford to act rashly and emotionally as some people seem to demand he does. The world is so unstable right now that it would be disastrous not only for Russia, but for the world in general. Putin’s balanced and cautious stance is what keeps the world spinning. Hot heads need to calm down, and that includes the hot heads not only in Russia, but also the well-meaning hot heads in the West. Those who demand all kinds of drastic actions from Russia, have to take a deep breath and look at the consequences. At the very least, read my articles (and my additional clarifying writing in the comment section), which explain a lot of the underbelly of what’s going on.
As always, Putin will be very careful with his responses. He will consider all sides of the issue; he will set aside emotions. However correct and justified, these emotions is something the leader of Russia cannot afford. It is abundantly clear that the West, led by the US/UK/Canada, has taken a path to self-destruction. I don’t think they fully realize it yet that the path of harming Russia is in fact a bona fide path to their own destruction. When they finally get it, it will be too late. Therefore, Putin has to act in such a way that he saves not only Russia, and Ukraine, but also the rest of the world. It is my firm and extremely confident prediction that what is good for Russia, is good for the rest of the world. Russia must, and will, act in its self-interest; but by doing so, Russia also acts on behalf of the higher good of the entire planet. The sooner people in the West grasp this, the better for all. See more in Predictions.
Russia imposes broad-range agricultural/food/raw material sanctions on the West
This just in! Kremlin officially announced the broad response sanctions against all Western countries who imposed sanctions against Russia. The list of banned imports from such countries is being drawn, but it is already known that it will affect agriculture, raw materials and food from the West, including US, Canada, UK, some EU countries, and Japan. This ban will be effective for one year, but can be revised as necessary. According to Russian reports, the ban will not touch average Russian citizen, but will impact the luxury market. See report by RT: Russia hits back with agricultural bans for sanctioning countries.
As of this writing, Russia halted all agricultural imports from the US for the term of one year. Russia also banned agricultural imports from Romania. Imports from Italy and Greece will be limited. Canada’s exports of raw materials to Russia are expected to be banned as well.
Additionally, the McDonald’s presence in Russia is in question, although for now, only milk-related and cheeseburger McDonald’s products are under health services investigation. See my post about that: War on All Fronts: McDonalds May Be Booted out of Russia; Latvia Bans Russian Superstars; Why did Yatsenyuk Resign; Repatriation of Russian Capital.
Russia also banned all agricultural imports from Poland as the country that was, and is, largely behind the Ukraine crisis. Poland expected to export to Russia a billion rubles worth of apples, among other things. Polish mercenaries are the driving force behind the Ukraine army, which without the participation of the Lithuanian and Polish mercenaries, would have fallen apart and would not have been able to effectively bomb the peaceful civilians in Donbass.
Russia closed its borders to milk and children’s products from Ukraine. Soy-related products from Ukraine are expected to be banned next. Imports into Russia from Ukraine are down 23% in the first 6 months of 2014.
Meanwhile, Ukraine keeps banning all kinds of Russian imports as well, except these make painfully little sense. Recently, Ukraine banned the movie and the book by the beloved classic of world literature, Mikhail Bulgakov, The White Guard, about the plight and tragedy of the White Russian officers during the 1918 Civil War. The action in it takes place in Kiev. Here is a beautiful song from the amazing Russian movie, The Days of the Turbins, based on The White Guard. Click to listen on YT: The White Acacia. Белой акации – Дни Турбиных
Kiev also banned Russian-Ukrainian movie, Poddubny, about Ukrainian champion boxer who became national hero after defeating American champion. Poddubny, unlike Rocky, is based on true historic events. It appears the Kiev junta was afraid to offend their American bosses by allowing this kind of movie to be shown in Ukraine – a new American colony.
In addition, Kiev also plans to ban Russian medicine exports. Considering medicine cost in Ukraine is up by 300% this year, banning affordable Russian medicine will make it even more difficult for simple citizens to survive.
Russia is growing cooperation with various countries around the world, as well as some former Soviet republics and will have no problem replacing products from Europe. So far, it has been announced that Russia will increase imports of fruits and vegetables from Turkey.
Analysis and prediction:
This is a big positive for Russia. What I said in my previous articles and predictions is now playing out. I said that in the long run Russia will only benefit from the Western sanctions.
Russia doesn’t need foods and agricultural products from the West. This desire to import cheeses, wine and pate from Europe is a leftover hiccup from the 1990s, when desire to be just like the West reigned supreme as the greedy oligarchs ran rampant. Pretty packaging isn’t worth selling your country for.
Now Russia can return to her core agricultural suppliers. During my trip, I visited some Central Asian markets and enjoyed authentic restaurants. Central Asia: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan – and this concerns Caucasus too – have wonderful agricultural products, much better and tastier than in the West. Sure, their packaging isn’t as pretty, or none at all. So what? You won’t eat packaging; it’s the substance that matters.
You can’t even begin comparing the authentic, natural Central Asian, Caucasus and Russian foods with the American over-pesticided, chemicalized, and GMO’ed products. Admittedly, Europe has much better foods and produce, but the good old Europe also started succumbing to same. It’s a little, dirty secret that GMO is already being quietly used in Europe. European soils are depleted from many years of intensive exploitation; crops are down. Europe is desperate for the agricultural output boost, which, they naively think, will be provided by GMO. Russians will only be healthier if such foods are banned. For the full analysis and predictions of the GMO/agriculture situation in the EU, US and Russia, watch: Russia’s #GMO Ban & Russia-China Holy Grail Gas Deal, including global GMO usage charts.
Central Asia and Caucasus used to, and they should continue supplying Russia with a huge variety of wonderful fruits and vegetables. In Central Asia everything matures much earlier than in Europe and can yield multiple crops per annum.
Moreover, Russia is fully capable of feeding herself with her own agricultural staples. Incidentally, Russia is expecting a bumper grain crop this year. There has been a public outcry in Russia for years that the proliferation of Western agricultural/food imports suppresses domestic producers – again an imbalance left over from the disastrous ’90s. The move of banning agriculture and foods from the West will allow domestic producers to reclaim their lawful place in the Russian market. Wheat, rye, barley, and most other grains, apples, pears, grapes, most berries (Russia has the best berries in the world!), cucumbers, potatoes, cabbage, beets, carrots, cheese, milk, awesome kefir & tvorog (farmers cheese – it also used to be the best when I was little, and very affordable), and lots of other goodies. Russian territories are huge, agricultural lands are well-rested and natural, unlike the over-pesticided, tired soils in most of the world. In fact, Russia is poised to become a truly natural, wholesome bread basket to the world, once the country invests in agriculture properly.
USSR used to have a fully self-sufficient agricultural heavy machinery production. Between Russia and Belarus all necessary agricultural equipment can be manufactured domestically. Unfortunately, due to the suicidal policies of the Kiev government, Ukraine, which is the third former Soviet republic with developed machine industry, has to be excluded from this equation.
Finally: this move allows Russia to restore some good will not only with parts of its own farming population, but also with Central Asian and Caucasus republics. The good will became tainted and confused after the breakup of the USSR, when some regions and former Soviet republics felt abandoned by Russia – the result of harmful (some Russians call it treason) policies by Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
I would caution my readers from the outright blame. I can confidently say that at least in part, it was naiveté and wishful thinking, going hand in hand with a certain lack of understanding of the geopolitical processes that got both Gorbachev and Yeltsin into hot waters (along with the entire country, I might add). I intend to write about what really happened, why and how, before, during and after the breakup of the USSR, in my future posts and special reports. I promise, the information will be revealing, and in many cases, surprising. And as always, it will be authentic. Stay with me!
On the same note, Russia will return to its faithful traditional suppliers from Cuba, Nicaragua and some other Latin American countries. Russia can also renew its agricultural ties with Vietnam, India, and possibly, other Asian countries. This is trickier for a number of reasons, including the GMO/pesticide infestation and the US subservience of some of these countries. Strictly speaking, Russia doesn’t need Asian agriculture as much due to lots of other options.
In conclusion: those who were wondering why Putin and Russia were so slow in implementing return sanctions, here is why. In the usual Putin’s style, Russia wanted to first exhaust all possible diplomatic means, appealing to reason and survival instinct of the Europeans, and hoping that the EU has enough sense left. Secondly, the direction Russia wanted to take with any return sanctions had to be such as to not harm the Russian population. Once the former was exhausted and the direction of the latter was determined (agriculture/raw materials/foods, possibly aviation), Russia could start acting.
It is clear that Russia is still hoping for a tiny spark of reason from Western Europe. My unfortunate diagnosis is that any such spark cannot be expected from the US, Poland or Canada. UK and Australia are largely in this camp, but perhaps there is a bit more resistance from the population. My diagnosis isn’t very comforting regarding the EU either. Unfortunately, the US has managed to scare European governments into submission.
Let’s recall what they did with the French bank BNP Paribas – the $10bln fine nearly bankrupted the bank. To scare the French further, US also blocked France’s access to international exchange facilities; then of course, the access was restored. This cynical flexing of its muscles may be satisfying to the US in the short run, but after this, who in their right mind would still believe US can be reasoned with? This reminds me of a huge monster playing with its food before it devours it. Pretending to let it go for a second, and then grabbing it again, before the fatal strike. What happened to France is a signal to all EU countries – toe the line, or you are next.
US, in fact, is very busy manufacturing its ultimate fall from grace. The problem for us all is that while falling into abyss, in its usual style, US tries to drag everyone down with it.
US and IMF try to manufacture artificial Argentine default
Argentina is the latest victim of the US monstrous games. Argentina, which openly supports Putin and Russia, publicly denouncing USA’s and West’s interference in Russian and Ukrainian affairs, is also a supporter of Palestine, speaking up against the Israeli invasion.
Immediately after Putin’s recent visit to Argentina and Latin America, US blocked Argentine dollar-denominated accounts. As a result, Argentina was pushed into pre-default territory. When the payment on Argentine debt came due, Argentina was unable to access its accounts to make a payment. As the howling started that Argentina is about to declare another default, Wall Street immediately attacked Argentine currency and debt, while IMF began pressuring Argentina to restructure its debt on even more CABAL conditions than before. These new conditions would have effectively put Argentina in a slavery dependence from the West forever. If not, Argentina is facing a virtual financial blockade. However, Argentinians rallied around the government, publicly calling the US and West “vultures.”
What happened to Argentina is a warning by the US to other Latin American and third world countries: be friendly with Russia, or try to keep an independent policy – and we’ll devour you. It’s not even a mafia style warning. Frankly, mafia to me seems like a much more sensible and reasonable entity than what we are dealing with here.
Here is how they operate: each country has a weakness. They identify this weakness, store it the databank, and when they need to subdue a country, they fish out this information and engineer an all-out attack on the weakest link.
For Argentina, it is finances. Argentina, for historic and national mentality reasons, is unable to get its financial house in order based on the predatory ‘western norms.’ Argentine mentality and psyche is so different from the Western psyche that they can’t operate within the Western usury system. If you ask me, it’s a good quality! But it always gets them in trouble with the US and IMF, who are presently monopolizing the world financial system.
Meanwhile, Argentina has tremendous natural resources and lovely population. They have lots of potential, should it be allowed to freely develop. It is for the countries like Argentina that the BRICS bank is being created. For more on this read: New Predictions! Putin Goes to Latin America: US Creates Wars – Russia Extends a Hand of Cooperation.
Read continuation: Russia’s Sanctions: Who Wins, Who Loses?
Much more about Putin and Russia still to come as soon as I get back to my desk after my vacation! Stay with me!
Truth about Russian oligarchs and the disastrous ’90!
Russian oligarchs and international conspiracies to overthow the Russian government are important ingredients of my books taking place in Russia: Gold Train (Accidental Spy Russia Adventure) and The Earth Shifter.
See all Books by Lada Ray
More about both books at the bottom of: YUKOS: Murder Incorporated, and the EU Schizophrenia
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Poland has been firmly in bed with the USA for years. I call Poland, together with the neighboring Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, the “Trojan Horses of the US in Europe.” Polish government has been known to support the Kiev maidan and the ousting of president Yanukovich. Polish officials both former and present, including former president of Poland, made ardent speeches on Kiev maidan, expressing extreme anti-Russian views and fostering hatred towards anything Russian.
The Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski was always considered anti-Russian and pro-American. In the 1980s he was fighting in Afghanistan on the American and the Taliban side against the Soviet forces and Afghanistan government. Since then, he exchanged his gun for the diplomatic suit, becoming an exemplary US Trojan Horse…
All of a sudden, it turns out Sikorski has been saying officially not exactly what he’s been thinking, and doing not exactly what he’s been wanting to do. The leaked tape published by a Polish publication shows Sikorski speaking with a former colleague. In the tape he says that Poland has been giving ‘the Americans a blow job’ for years in return for nothing. This, says Sikorski, has lulled Poles into a false sense of security. Meanwhile, Poland is sacrificing for the sake of the relationship with the USA the most important relationships it has, those with Russia and Germany – creating enemies out of neighbors.
Indeed, Polish ultra-nationalism has been completely out of control for years, both on state, and every day, level. It is very visible in the media and in the statements of politicians. Polish ultra-nationalists sometimes turn violent. A couple of years ago during the football World Cup in Poland, the Polish mob attacked Russian fans. As a result, many received injuries.
In light of all this, the leaked tape is quite scandalous and revealing. As such, it has made the first pages of all Polish publications.
Sikorski went on Western TV to deny that he ever said anything of the sort. While denying the tape, he nevertheless stated that the “Old World” has to unite, and stop listening to America. Europe has to decide its own policy and take care of its own security; it has to stop relying on the US.
This seems like a shocking and almost revolutionary statement coming from a Polish politician. It is known that 48% of the Polish population disapprove of the pro-American government of Donald Tusk. We all remember a scandal when it turned out that Polish territory was used (still is?) by the CIA for its illegal prisons. It is known that Polish territory is widely used by the US and UK to train opposition bloggers, pro-Western media, NGO and Fifth Column specialists, who would then go to their respective countries to undermine regimes US wants changed. These specialists are primarily trained for Russia. We also see the results of their handiwork in today’s Ukraine. Of course, they also infiltrate Belarus, Baltics, Kazakhstan, Central Asia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, as well as Eastern Europe: Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, etc. The main goal of the Fifth Column is to promote “American and Western values” and undermine – read bash, malign, vilify – Russia; to foster hatred towards Russia, re-write history and create animosity. They must do very good business.
Can it be that the realization of what Poland has turned itself into is slowly dawning on the natives? Could it be that some Poles are beginning to realize at least some truth? Let’s hope so. Although after 20+ years of Poland’s sleeping with the devil, I am understandably cautious about such supposition…
In any event, I do strongly suspect that Poles are secretly terrified of the monster they helped create in Ukraine, together with the US and EU. They probably are shocked (if I were them, I would be) at what became of Ukraine after they had actively trained and financed the opposition, including the ukro-nazi ‘right sector’ militants. Those same nazis that burned people alive in Odessa, and those who kill people in Donbass. Poland still maintains a claim on part of western Ukraine with the capital in Lvov. The ‘right sector’ are the descendants of the Hitler era ukro-fascists from SS Division Galichina, the so-called ‘banderovtsi,’ who killed hundreds of thousands of Poles in western Ukraine. I don’t know how any decent Polish people can possibly feel good about what ukro-nazis are doing today.
I had several Polish friends and I had been to Poland at least four times. But this was over 20 years ago. At the time, I didn’t notice any anti-Russian sentiment or animosity; quite the opposite – my Polish friends were always extremely warm and hospitable. In this regard, I didn’t feel any different than in Russia. Poles were always opinionated and high-strung, but they were still a great company to hang out with. I very much enjoyed our friendship – we had a lot in common, much more than Poles admit to themselves today. Yes, there were some historic tensions, but they were kept in check by the conscious efforts of both sides to remember similarities before differences.
All this ended in the 1990s. Differences and problems is what USA exploits best. This is the old, time-tested strategy of divide and conquer. Once American NGOs moved in, and once the willing politicians were found, who did everything the US told them to do, Poland became progressively more and more anti-Russian and pro-American. Remember the 2003 Iraq invasion and the “coalition of the willing” the US formed out of its vassals through threats and coercion? Poland was a very willing part of it.
For many Russians, what appeared to be a sudden Polish turn to Rusophobia caused a shock similar to what they had experienced when they woke up one day to discover that Ukrainians became anti-Russian practically overnight. This shock wasn’t as painful; after all, Poles are not as close to Russians as Ukrainians are. And of course this didn’t happen overnight – it took about 10-15 years to nurture this hatred. The work started still in the 1980s and culminated in the early 2000s. Not every country succumbed to propaganda. Bulgarian, Serbian and Slovakian people, no matter how much anti-Russian propaganda is dumped on them, remain pro-Russian; but unfortunately, not their governments.
Poland succumbed very easily. In Ukraine it took a bit longer, but not by much.
Hatred destroys something very important in people’s hearts and minds. Can the trust be rebuilt? Perhaps. Russians tend to forgive easily. I don’t know about Poles. In any event, looks like the wind is changing and people are starting to come to their senses. Let’s just say I am cautiously optimistic. I have to say, it will take much longer, and much more evidence, to change my present scepticism regarding Poland into something truly positive.
After years of… how do I say it without getting into the sex terminology… umm… In other words, of doing you-know-what with the US, Poland is finally acknowledging what has been obvious to others. Poland’s future is in cooperation, not confrontation, with Russia and Germany, among other neighboring countries. It’s future isn’t so much in bed with someone’s uncle from across the Atlantic.
Sometimes a leaked tape is not a bomb, but rather a political signal. The conversation in question actually happened in the beginning of 2014, but the tape was only leaked a few days ago. I believe that Poland is ready for regime and political wind change. The leaked tape by Polish FM, a known Rusophobe, serves as a signal meant for Russia and Germany, as well as France, that Poland will play ball.
Considering how actively Poland was pushing US agenda in Europe for years, oftentimes clashing and overriding its bigger neighbors France and Germany, this is an interesting signal. Will it amount to anything, or will “uncle” McCain now appear in Warsaw, as he just recently materialized in Sofia, after which Bulgaria promptly froze its participation in the Russian South Stream pipeline project? Or they could send Victoria Nuland to “subvert” Poland, like she did with Ukraine. It does appear very easy for the US to scare any “European leader” into doing the US bidding.
Let’s see for a moment what’s happening in the EU. France announced that it will deliver two Mistral carriers to Russia over the US objections; one of the major French banks formed a partnership with Russia and is ready to pay $8bln in sanctions to the US for doing business with Russia. US is putting a lot of pressure on France regarding anti-Russian sanctions. The French are very angry at the US. They are suffering massive business losses because of these sanctions.
It helps that Marine Le Pen won Europarliament elections, defeating the incumbent French president Hollande’s Socialist Party. I predicted Marine Le Pen rise back in 2012, in the same article where I predicted Sarkozy’s presidential election loss and Hollande’s win. I also said that Hollande is likely to fail the deeply cherished desires of his voters, and could eventually lose to Marine Le Pen. See my 2012 France predictions: 2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone.
Incidentally, watch Marine Le Pen! She is only warming up. I see her as the only hope for constructive change in Europe this decade. Considering Angela Merkel has completely dropped the ball, and most others are bought-and-paid-for, she is the only big politician who can really influence the whole Europe.
Speaking of Germany. As I said before, it reminds me of a deer caught in the headlights. In one of my previous articles about Merkel I said that she is scared of something, possibly of the responsibility she can’t handle, but also possibly, of some scandals that can come out – remember, she was (still is?) the subject of a massive NSA surveillance. What secrets of hers did NSA record during their illegal wire-tapping? On this blog we deal with facts. One such fact is that at times, Merkel acts as if she is on the US payroll. Otherwise, how does one explain her latest statement that the German gold is perfectly fine at the NY FED? Merkel withdrew Germany’s request that US delivers some of German gold it holds in trust for Berlin. That’s after US failed to deliver more than 5 tons out of 1400 tons of gold it holds in trust for Germany, practically admitting to the entire world that all foreign gold has been squandered! Why would Merkel do that? Blackmail and threats come to mind.
At the same time, German business has been screaming bloody murder over the anti-Russian sanctions. A quiet revolt is brewing in Germany and some other EU countries.
Slowly, Europe is starting to muster a tiny bit of courage to express its desires. This incredible timidness demonstrates vividly how much Europe really is under the US thumb.
Even American companies are starting to seriously worry that US anti-Russian sanctions will undermine American economy. US-Russia annual trade is only $20bln. Russia-EU trade is $420bln. If US companies are protesting, imagine what EU companies feel!
Of course, it’s easy for the US to manipulate Europe for historic reasons. Having started two World Wars in the 20th century alone, western Europe is mortally terrified of a new massive conflict on the continent. They don’t trust themselves, it seems. Remember what I said – fear, greed and other lowly emotions is what US exploits best. Therefore, Europeans have to snap out of their fearful ‘deer caught in the headlights’ mode and start behaving on the level of reason! Only then the situation can be resolved.
Just yesterday, US Secretary of State John Kerry again threatened Russia. He said that Russia must disarm(!) rebels in eastern Ukraine, otherwise there will be a new round of sanctions. He probably means that Putin MUST go to Ukraine and PERSONALLY disarm anyone who US disapproves of, to please Kerry, Obama, McCain, and other imbeciles in Washington. That does not concern ukro-nazis from the ‘right sector,’ because these SOBs are “US approved” SOBs.
Can anyone even begin to imagine the level of imbecilism of the idiots like Kerry? I think he attended Harvard? Bravo, he totally lives up to the elite American ivy-league education!
Jokes aside, the Washington idiots are extremely dangerous because they are holding the financial and military levers, through which they can ruin any country they please. The US is threatening to block Russia from using the SWIFT system – the US and petro-dollar controlled international system of payments, which is the world monopoly. Just imagine the levers in the US hands! US can threaten any country to be cut off from SWIFT, resulting in a serious damage to that country’s economy. What a perfect blackmail position! As an example, Iran is cut off from SWIFT as part of US-imposed sanctions.
No single country must be allowed to hold such unfair advantage over others.
SWIFT is what a country uses to pay for imports and international trade. If Russia cannot use SWIFT, she can’t sell gas to Europe. To this day, Russia sells gas to Europe for dollars(!), despite trying to transition to rubles for years. Do you know why they can’t? Because US is putting huge pressure on the EU. If Russia is suddenly cut off from SWIFT monopoly, it can be catastrophic for both Russian and EU economies. Russia would be forced to halt the gas flow until EU agrees to pay Russia in rubles. This will take time, and massive sabotage by the US has to be expected.
The way gas pipelines work is that the pipe has to maintain a substantial pressure in oder for gas to continue flowing. This is achieved by a number of measures. If you stop gas flow cold turkey, it’s very hard and expensive to re-start it. That’s why Gazprom prefers not to do it. Turning off the switch is a very cumbersome and costly proposition.
EU countries will be threatened not to agree to the ruble-based trade. It is clear why: this is a direct threat to the dollar. If dollar collapses, this threatens the very existence of the US Empire. Of course, the collapse of the dollar is a matter of when, not if. But US will be trying to delay it for as long as possible. As I discussed many times before, US will try to drag down with it everyone it can. Russia is first on the list. EU – including Germany, France, Italy, Austria, and poor Poland, too – second.
Next, US will say: see, we told you so! Russia is a very unreliable business partner. It stopped the flow of gas to Europe, just as we warned you! Instead, we will sell you OUR OWN shale gas! We are your old allies and biggest partners. We are all a part of NATO! Work with the US! And if you don’t… And then, there will be threats, which may, or may not, convince the EU countries to fall in line.
What will happen next: EU economy will be undermined. Russian economy will be undermined. Who wins? US and Canada, as it happens every time there is a war or crisis on the European continent. I have warned about this same in my previous articles. The saga continues.
On a more optimistic side:
Austria just signed a deal with Russia to build the Austrian section of South Stream. In an interview a few days ago, a Hungarian journalist said that in truth, everyone in Eastern Europe wants to have Gazprom pipeline go through their territory. This provides lots of badly needed jobs, money flows into the country, gas gets cheaper; there are many other benefits, including possible future projects with Russia. But at that very moment, Uncle Sam comes in and starts steamrolling through these small countries, intimidating and buying up politicians and businesses. Call it US mafia, invasion, or slavery – it doesn’t get any less disgusting.
Other moderate positives: Czechia and Slovakia said they will not place US AMD missiles on their territory, directed against Russia. Hungary has been vocal against some of the policies they don’t like in the EU, including the Ukraine crisis. Although Hungarians succumbed to the pressure to stay in the EU, these first timid steps can be considered an attempt to regain sovereignty. By how a country behaves in such circumstances we can easily see how much independence and sovereignty this country has.
For example recently, Senator McCain visited Bulgaria, after which Bulgaria promptly announced that it was freezing its participation in the South Stream project with Russia (gas pipeline being built to bypass the uncertainty of Ukraine in order to deliver Russian gas directly to southern and central Europe). This pipeline would be a life-line for the fledgling Bulgarian economy. Therefore, such announcement after the McCain visit means only one thing: Bulgaria has no sovereignty whatsoever. It does what its masters in Washington tell it to do. Romania agreeing to place American AMDs on its territory, despite Russia’s objections, is another indication of the same.
In this regard, we can see clearly how little sovereignty Poland has, if in order to signal the change, they need to resort to a leaked tape. Still, better than nothing…
Therefore, I am making this cautiously optimistic prediction: Europe is waking up little by little. The US influence in Europe is slowly waning. Russia and EU must, and will, continue getting closer. US will try to sabotage this process, so brace yourselves.
Here is my advice to the EU politicians and media. If you are scared, remember this: US can only cause trouble and get to you, if you yourselves have ulterior motives, or if you are not acting in good faith. They are masters of exploiting fear, anger and greed. Don’t allow them access to these lowly emotions. Plus, work with, not against, Russia – and there is nothing they’ll be able to do.
For as long as I can look back, Russia has always carried the biggest load, and paid a disproportionately heavy price for getting the world back into balance. Russia single-handedly won WWII (allies only opened the second front in 1944, when it wasn’t necessary any more as Soviet troops had already chased Hitler almost back to Germany). Peace prevailed, but 27 million Soviet people had to die for that; the country was practically destroyed. I was just having a discussion with a Chinese friend. I reminded him that if not for Russia, Chinese might have been speaking Japanese today. It was only thanks to Russia’s massive help, know-how, troops, equipment and money that Chinese were able to liberate their country from brutal Japanese occupation during WWII.
For years, Russia had been the No.1 exporter of talent and brains. The rise of the US science, art and sport is all thanks to the emigration from Russia, as well as other countries. For example, one of Google founders is from Russia. How many Russian scientists emigrated to the US since 1990s (thanks to Soros grants)? I lived in Princeton for many years. The entire famed Princeton University’s Institute for Advanced Studies, where Einstein worked, is staffed with Russians. How many Russian classical musicians and ballet dancers have elevated the art in the West? The rise of the American and European gymnastics and figure skating is all due to Russian athletes and coaches, some of whom I have known personally. Russian oligarchs – fronts for Rothschilds, BP, Exxon and others – siphoned enormous wealth out of the country and passed it on to their Western bosses, thus enriching the West and impoverishing Russia (and Ukraine too).
Now, Russia and Putin are trying to keep peace, when US is trying to drag the world into the last war, and Europe is timidly hiding behind mommy’s skirt.
Enough already! Start taking responsibility for your own future, people!
This is in addition to my earlier predictions on this topic, which you can find on my Predictions page, as well as previous articles.
RT video about the Polish FM leaked tape: ‘Gave the Americans a blow job for nothing’: Polish FM in tape leak scandal