As we’ve discussed in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 in Syria, there is hell for Turkey to pay for the downing of the Russian jet. NATO, EU and even US have been trying very hard to distance themselves from Turkey, insisting it’s all between Russia and the ‘unpredictable’ Erdogan.
As predicted in the same article, neither NATO nor EU would move a muscle to protect Turkey. In fact, various Western politicians and generals are floating an opinion that Turkey should be expelled from NATO.
I can tell you this won’t happen. It’s certainly not realistic for as long as NATO exists in its current state. US and NATO have too many bases in Turkey and they won’t just abandon this primest of the prime spot, allowing them to meddle with Russia. Considering that soon there will be fewer and fewer places where US and NATO will be welcome, they will try with all their might to hang on to what they can.
Therefore, I do not see the expulsion of Turkey from NATO at this time – sooner NATO will stop to exist. For now, all that is being said are very careful warnings for Erdogan, sort of like ‘down, boy!’
In fact, Erdogan’s actions are noted to become more and more erratic and unpredictable. He has just destroyed in one fell swoop a decade of building up a very lucrative cooperation with Russia. There is danger he may be trying to generate a conflict with Russia in order to invoke an international clause regulating the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, allowing Turkey to close them down, thus shutting down Russia in Black Sea. Worst case scenario is looming and Russia needs to be prepared for it.
Although Turkey has very little leeway in closing down the straits, it may be attempting an extraordinary provocation to achieve this goal. It’s hard to imagine Turkey acting alone in that.
In one of my earlier articles about Turkey and its role in the region, I predicted that Turkey, by virtue of occupying a very strategic position that essentially bridges Europe and Middle East, serving as a gate into Asia and Black Sea, is allowed by world powers to be strong enough to perform the gatekeeper role, but will never be allowed to get too strong. It will be immediately put in its place, should that happen. This is what we are seeing happen. Turkey is also a very long-standing bone of contention between Russia and the West. Read more in Is Erdogan Trying to Recreate Ottoman Empire?
The issue of the Black Sea straits is very important. As a result of World War I they were supposed to go to Russia, together with what is now Istanbul (Constantinople). This never happened. Do you know why? I’ll explain all about it in the upcoming ESR7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT. This important, albeit volitile, issue may be raised again by Russia.
To add to my NATO and Russia predictions in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet, I can also tell you that Turkey’s actions have weakened NATO and strengthened Russian position in the region.
As I’ve also pointed out in the same article written within a couple of hours after the news of Su-24 downing, the rift between NATO countries will continue intensifying. It’s already evident in France’s Hollande trying to solidify a coalition with Russia. There is a power struggle within NATO between US, who says that there will only be one coalition – theirs, and France, who have already signed a cooperation agreement with Russia. Certainly, France is weak compared to the power of the US. However, due to the force majeure circumstances of the Paris bombings, France’s claim takes precedence under international law. US is being pushed aside in Syria, as France has a legitimate reason to retaliate for Paris attacks.
However, I am skeptical as to how far this cooperation between France and Russia will be allowed to go. Undoubtedly, Hollande will try, but he is also kept on an invisible short leash, as various attacks in France show.
Also, technically, since France is a part of NATO, Russia can’t share that much intel, for fear that it will be again leaked to the US, Turkey and ISIL.
Putin has practically head-on accused USA of aiding Turkey in the downing of the Russian jet. Putin said that USA had signed an agreement with Russia on behalf of all NATO countries, according to which Russia has advised USA/NATO where Russian jets would be at any given moment. This made Turkey, a NATO member, fully aware of all the movements of the Russian jets.
By now it’s clear to the entire world that Turkey was well prepared for this hit. The Russian bomber, which isn’t designed to deflect attacks of fighter jets, was simply ambushed. Turkish fighter was waiting for the Russians, then it maneuvered in such a way as to strike from behind. As Putin so aptly put it, ‘it was a knife strike in Russia’s back.’
It appears that neither NATO nor USA ever thought the whole truth about the attack would come out so quickly. Certainly, a massive miscalculation on their part took place here. As I said in the above-referenced article, instead of being intimidated and leaving Syria, Russia is set for a much deeper and stronger participation in Syria and the Middle East in general.
Turkey is NATO/USA’s tool and weapon in the Middle East. But, in addition Turkey has its own interests and plans. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also have own interests and plans, in addition to being West’s tools in the region.
I received this question from several people: is Erdogan mad; has power gone to his head? Or is he absolutely rational, acting according to his well-thought-out plan? Lots of passionate debates are now taking place among experts. Most people are confused as to how to interpret his seemingly irrational actions.
I’ll give you the entire spread – Turkey (Erdogan)/ Black Sea/ Crimea/ Odessa/ Russia/ NATO/ Balkans/ Pridnestrovie/ Moldova/ Caucasus, and explain the deep connections between all that in my upcoming Earth Shift Report 7 – THE BATTLE FOR EURASIA: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
Military: the preliminary military response to Turkey’s actions has already taken place. Russia established a no-fly zone over the Turkey-Syria border. No movement between Turkish territory and Syria is possible any more, therefore no supply of weapons, rotation of terrorists or ISIL oil truck movement takes place between Syria and Turkey.
Read all about Syria, Russia and Israel; how ISIL/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood are financed, including oil revenues, artifact sales and Turkey/Qatar/Saudi/US role in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER.
It is known that those terrorists that shot at Russian pilots from the ground, killing one, and those who shot down Russian rescue helicopter and killed a marine, were not Turkmen rebels as was initially announced by Turkey, but ‘grey wolves.’ This is an ultra-nationalist Turkish organization with direct links to Erdogan and the ruling party. The man who actually pulled the trigger was a Turkish national and son of a mayor of a Turkish city.
The body of the Russian colonel who piloted the ill-fated Su-24, had surfaced in Ankara, Turkey, where Turkish terrorists brought it to demonstrate their ‘victory’ over the defenceless pilot. Following Russia’s damand, Turkey gave the body back to Russia.
Within one day after the jet’s downing, Russia flew the advanced S-400 systems to its military base in Syria. This is an extraordinary step Russia had refrained from taking before due to pleas from states such as Jordan, Lebanon and Israel, fearing the destabilization of the region. S-400 covers the territory of 400 kilometers in radius and therefore can shoot down Turkish jets on takeoff deep inside Turkish territory. There is no weapon in existence, including radio-electronic interference, that can intercept or stop missiles fired by this advanced Russian system.
S-400 is more advanced than S-300 system that Russia has now begun delivering to Iran. Russia has also developed S-500, the most advanced in the series. Watch ESR4: ALIEN TECHNOLOGY AND NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS for many other Russian cutting-edge designs.
Black Sea Fleet Flagship, Cruiser Moskva, has moved to Syria and is covering Russian airstrikes and bases from the sea.
Russia also made a decision to build two complete military-naval bases in Syria, instead of the initially proposed single base in Tartus.
Essentially, no one can now fly in Syria without the permission of the Russian forces.
This is one of the reasons France is trying to get into some sort of coalition with Russia – there is no other way for them to fly in Syria in order to retaliate on Paris attacks, and Hollande must at least pretend to do so in order to look good for his constituents at home. Russia always looks for cooperation whenever possible. But in truth, as I said in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER and other referenced pieces, Russians really don’t need others: they just need everyone getting out of the way, so they can do their job.
As predicted, Russia was just given by the Turkish actions a very legitimate opportunity to intensify presence in the Middle East and to become the leading player in the region.
Economic sanctions: Putin announced the preliminary economic sanctions package against Turkey. Visa-free regime is suspended as of 1/1/2016. Russia stops selling tours to Turkey and the last of Russian tourists are returning home. This is a big blow. Turkey is visited annually by 3-5 million Russians and they leave there $10 bln annually. Russians are by far the biggest tourism market for Turks, and tourism constitutes 25% of Turkish economy.
Turkish business in Russia is banned and all Turkish business licenses revoked. Turkish nationals are denied visas and expelled. This is also a huge blow, hitting not only Turkish companies but wider into the Muslim-oriented network of mafias. Turkish business has been huge since Yeltsin’s times. I will talk about its incredibly deep penetration and powerful lobby in Russia in the upcoming ESR7.
Russian companies are prohibited from hiring Turkish workers. Charter flights to Turkey are banned starting 1/1/2016, while regular flights are still on, pending further notice. There is a partial ban on Turkish produce and goods. The list will be finalised soon. This is just the start. Turkey is only in the beginning of the process of paying the price – much more to come.
Russian gas supplies to Turkey and Turkish/Blue Stream project are a different and complicated story, which we’ll also discuss in ESR7.
Meanwhile, Turkish oligarchs are starting to incur losses due to Russian sanctions.
By now it has become apparent (as I hinted in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet) that the terrorist act of blowing up Ukrainian power lines to Crimea was organized by Turkey in close cooperation with Poroshenko and Kiev government, using Crimean Tartar extremist organization Medjlis and ukro-nazis. The connection between these parties is much deeper than many imagine (read Urgent! Ukraine Blows Up Power Lines, Leaving Crimea and 2.5 Million People Without Electricity). I have some new revealing intel.
Last but not least, there is a fight breaking out between Erdogan and the Turkish military. A military coup may be possible.
All the above and its profound implications will de discussed in detail in Earth Shift Report 7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
China weighs in
China has sent its aircraft carrier to Syria in support of Russian forces. The story of this Soviet-made Chinese aircraft carrier – the country’s only – is remarkable and provocative in its own right. The very presence of this particular vessel sends a number of serious messages to Russia, NATO, US and even Ukraine. Very subtly, in its usual way, China is hinting on something. What is it? Stay tuned for ESR7, where all will be revealed.
Putin in Paris
Along with many other heads of state, Vladimir Putin is in Paris for the UN Climate Conference. While the pretext is global warming (and we won’t discuss it here), the conference is being used by heads of major states to discuss what’s really on everyone’s mind: Syria, Turkey, ISIL, Russian jet and Crimea.
Multiple times and through all imaginable channels in the past two days, Turkey’s Erdogan had attempted to secure a telephone conversation with Putin, but was rebuffed. In Paris, Erdogan again attempted to meet with Putin on the sidelines, but was again refused.
Putin met with Chinese President, which happens very frequently lately. Last meeting was two weeks ago.
Putin also met with Barack Obama and spoke with him for 30 minutes. Note that this meeting takes place after Putin has practically accused US of aiding terrorists along with Turkey. This is their second contact in the past two weeks, after over a year of mutual silence. Obama finally uttered ‘regret’ about the downing of the Russian jet. Does this signal a further distancing of USA/NATO from Turkey, or is it just for show?
For answers to all the above questions,
explosive newest intel, clandestine ops, loud scandals and quiet wars
surrounding one of the most sought after strategic areas of the world, read:
Earth Shift Report 7
Erdogan, Davutoglu & Ottoman Empire
Coming December 13!
(Why is Black Sea so valuable geopolitically?)
COMING NEXT WEEK!
Please stay tuned!
This new report should be read in conjunction with
Syria Op: How REB and RYCHAG keep enemy blind and deaf
REB (Rus: Radio Electronnaya Bor’ba) means ‘Radio Electronic Defence.’ This is a complex of advanced systems that renders targeted weapons useless and spying equipment deaf and blind in the radius of 70-200 and more kilometers, depending on application. RYCHAG is one of the REB-related systems, translated as Lever.
My VIDEO ESR 4. ALIEN TECHNOLOGY & NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS talks about REB, RYCHAG and many other peerless and one-of-a-kind Russian systems. I wrote that Russians started slowly unveiling their advanced defence projects and weapons as a warning: stop stepping on our toes! As usual, what we are allowed to glimpse is only the tip of the iceberg, as is explained in ESR4.
I wrote in ESR4 that the Russian military had boasted that in a conflict that took place several years ago Russian air force didn’t lose a single jet or pilot, despite enemy’s relentless blanket fire. Meanwhile, the adversary lost much of its combat aircraft, hardware and airfields (plus, a port). The conflict they were talking about was the so-called 08/08/08 four-day war with Georgia after Georgia attacked S. Ossetia. It was later recognized that the reason for such successful and speedy operation was the use of the early prototype of the REB system.
Russian military analysts are now starting to come out with hints and careful admissions regarding the Russian operation is Syria. It has been hinted that RYCHAG is being used there. Remember my recent post: US drone spying on Russian combat mission, filmed by Russian pilot in Syria? These drones can’t get far – and they can’t get any data not for the lack of trying. A single RYCHAG device jams all data and communication from any adversary forces in Syria in the radius of 70 km, or more.
This is the reason US and others are suddenly changing their tune on Syria. Highly successful Russian strikes notwithstanding, the fact that US and others are deaf, blind and powerless is the game changer. Suddenly Kerry and Saudis want to discuss strategy with Lavrov; suddenly Assad isn’t so bad after all.
Incidentally, in Goodbye Harper! Canada Celebrates New PM Trudeau’s Overwhelming Victory and in Canada Follow Up: PM Justin Trudeau’s Shadows, we have discussed Canada’s recent elections. One of the announcements the incoming PM Trudeau has made is that Canadian air force is withdrawing from Syria. This was met with cheers at home. Citizens are overjoyed. This announcement makes Trudeau look good and is convenient to make on the heels of his election. Such announcement confirms expectations and saves face.
But in truth, elections or not, Canada planes would have been forced to leave anyway. But perhaps if Harper stayed, they would have done it secretly, without any pomp. Why? Because of RYCHAG. With RYCHAG, any unauthorized craft, whether belonging to ISIL, US, Canada or any other country, flies blind and deaf, while Russian craft can see and hear everything. The risk is too large and the upside is none. As I said in the Syria Game Changer report, Russia, the only legally present air force, is slowly and quietly squeezing all unauthorized forces from Syria skies.
As explained in Earth Shift Report 5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER Canadian, much like US or any other military, will not risk clashing with Russians in Syria. Israel understood the hint right away and withdrew, agreeing on intel sharing and coordination with Russia. Withdrawal is the best option. It’s just that Canada has had the face-saving elections and US hasn’t yet, which means that very uncomfortable times are upon Washington. USA’s face-saving elections are ahead.
A quick prediction: Just watch how right after the 2016 elections US will start changing its direction, announcing the face-saving withdrawal from Ukraine (consistent with my predictions), and some other places… Well, unless Obama admin is put in such tight spot earlier in the game that it will be forced to announce its withdrawal sooner. In Syria US is already forced to begin playing ball. Ukraine is next.
New intel: cruise missile launch from Caspian
One of many important topics discussed in Syria Game Changer ESR5 is the Russian launch of 26 cruise missiles from Caspian Sea. In the report I wrote that the launch ‘caught US with its pants down and mouth open.’
But there’s more! The US and other intelligence services completely miscalculated and underestimated the capability of these missiles. Based on an export modification sold recently to India, the range was believed to be 300 km, while these particular cruise missiles flew 2500 km to hit their planned targets. First, the precision of the strike means that 2500 km isn’t their limit and they can fly longer distances. But in reality, no one knows what their range is and what they can reach. Total panic and confusion on Capitol Hill, in White House, CIA and Pentagon…
I wrote recently in ESR1 RELOADED: Is Putin Part of NWO that Russia doesn’t share her real plans, intentions or capabilities with anyone any more. There was a time when Gorbachev and Yeltsin openly shared with US and EU way too much. Their naiveté and openness was used to undermine Russia, almost costing them the country.
Presently, we are in a state of the hybrid 4D warfare (more about it in ESR 4). Who in their right mind would share their real capability with potential adversary under such circumstances? Obviously, Russia’s export models and best designs intended for own defence systems are two different things.
As a result, NATO/US/UK military and intelligence are in total confusion. For years, they ran on their old image of Russia, the naive and not very savvy in the ways of the West country they liked to make fun of. Now, they might as well throw out everything they ever knew about Russian defence, and start from scratch. If they had completely miscalculated Caspian missiles, misjudged Caspian Fleet and missed the very Syrian operation, how can they trust any of their intel? If Russians have SUCH cruise missiles installed on dinky little ships in the landlocked sea, what do they have on advanced nuclear subs and flagships?
These, now famous, cruise missiles are installed on very unlikely vessels: relatively small ships, which are part of the landlocked and seemingly inconsequential Caspian Fleet, dealing primarily with coast guard issues. Several years ago there were talks of discontinuing this fleet as an unnecessary expense. Now, looking back, that old debate seems more and more like a decoy, so no one would take it seriously.
But there is more. Neither ships nor missiles of this class are a part of any US-Russia or NATO-Russia treaty. They aren’t regulated by any international body. The shock is obvious: these cruise missiles fly undetected and below the radar both literally and figuratively.
They were part of one of the Soviet projects, shelved during the collapse. It was un-shelved after Putin assumed office. There are lots more advanced Soviet projects where this one came from. As pretty much everyone recognizes, Russians have just lifted the veil enough for us all to peak inside their new advanced programs. But how much haven’t they shown?
Putin’s Valdai Forum Admission
The annual Valdai Forum just took place in Russia. One of the things Putin said seemingly casually, has been repeated over and over. He said that he learned one thing from his childhood on Leningrad streets: ‘If the fight is unavoidable, strike first.’ This refers to Russia’s strike on ISIL in Syria, but more so, it sounds like a warning for those who may still have designs to continue advancing NATO to Russia’s borders, messing with Ukraine and stepping on Russia’s toes in Eurasia.
Lately, when Putin speaks, the world listens.
Iraq rebels against US and wants Russia to step in
I wrote about this in the Syria Game Changer report. Iraq would love Russia to bomb ISIL on its territory.
You probably won’t find this in any Western MSM: a large group of Iraqi parliament deputies wrote an official letter to the Iraqi president, asking him to request Russia’s official help. US is livid and tries to stop it. I wrote in the report that it’s unlikely that Russia would agree to help Iraq while US is still there. The pressure on Iraqi government to stop the pro-Russian movement growing in the country is enormous, to say the least. Therefore, if Iraqi president officially asks Russia for help while US is still there, this will mean open rebellion against the US.
Iraqis say they love Putin and Russia and they hope for Russia’s help. Here is a segment from the German channel ARD (in Russian and German). It talks about how Iraqis adore Russia and pray for Russia’s help. Specifically, they talk about an Iraqi painter living in Germany, who paints Putin’s portraits – Link.
The question is: hasn’t USA and the ‘coalition of the willing’ liberated Iraq from the evil Saddam? Why then don’t Iraqis adore their liberators?
Further, if Iraq asks Russia for help while US is still there, what does it say to everyone about US and its role in Iraq? Iraqi politicians and military openly complain that US is only pretending to bomb ISIL, while 75% of US pilots return from anti-ISIL missions with their bombs still intact, and only 25% or less come back empty. There is no trust between US and Iraqi people or government.
Read/watch all about REB, RYCHAG and other secret Russian weapons:
Read all about Russia, US, Syria, Caspian Sea cruise missile launch, and more:
COMING THIS WEEK!
The long-awaited breakthrough
Earth Shift Report 6:
UKRAINE – NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE?
Go to EARTH SHIFT REPORT page
As a direct consequence of the US and EU push for the lift of the oil embargo and sanctions in exchange for Iran giving up its nuclear program (well, at least partially), Putin has lifted ban on delivery of S-300 missile systems to Iran and authorized the delivery. The contract between Russia and Iran was signed over 5 years ago, but the US and EU imposed anti-Iran sanctions and broad embargo, preventing the delivery at the time. Russian FM Lavrov announced that with the ban lift, there are no more obstacles to the contract completion.
It has to be noted that S-300 isn’t Russia’s most advanced missile defence system. S-400 is a more sophisticated one, and the newest cutting-edge designs are coming up as well. Iran faces dangers in the region and it needs the means to defend itself, while S-300 is a purely defensive system posing no threat, said the Russian leadership.
This new development is happening at the same time the US and EU say they won’t give up on their missile system in Europe, despite the fact that hypothetical aggressor against which this system is supposedly directed – Iran – is giving up its nuclear program. It’s common knowledge that in reality, US missile defence system in Europe is directed against Russia, which both US and NATO have denied for years.
It has to be noted that the Yemen bombings have also influenced the Russian S-300 delivery decision.
In addition to Iran’s need to defend itself from potential aggression by Saudis, US and/or Israel, Russia’s move is part of a complex geopolitical chess game in which S-300 is used as leverage. One of the messages Russia sends to the US and EU is: ‘you make your move – we make ours.’
Coming! NEW EARTH SHIFT REPORT
(where hoaxes are dispelled, and truths revealed)