Repost from Lada Ray Patreon
Something very important happened yesterday!
At 8 am ET today we have posted urgent EARTH SHIFT PODCAST on YouTube:
It was clear that Nazarbayev, at his old age, won’t be there forever. It’s possible there are hidden health issues, or as I suggest in this podcast, it is a ‘castling of the king.’
The government of Kazakhstan was dismissed, also suddenly, 3 weeks ago.
The long-stranding leader of Kazakhstan has been replaced with the new face, a pro-West, as he is being characterized by some, speaker of the Kazakh parliament.
Therefore, the outside pressure is definitely a factor. Listen to the podcast to hear my assessment of him, along with my urgent overview/assessment and predictions on what’s happening in and around Kazakhstan, including the strategically important Caspian.
But it gets worse…
This is a huge development! US is trying to make Kazakhstan agree to a US base on Caspian, following a series of blackmails, as described in my new book!
And note that all this is happening right on the dot, just as Russia celebrates the 5th anniversary of the Crimean people’s referendum and Russia’s reunification with Crimea! Coincidence?.. Or a skillful outside pressure on Kazakhstan with the purpose of sending a MESSAGE and executing REVENGE against Russia for ‘daring’ to take over Crimea?..
Will Russia and Iran allow the US base on Caspian?
Listen to my prediction in EarthShiftPodcast9!
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Kazakhstan has its own extensive chapter in the new book!
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SCO = THE NEW G8! (Putin on G7, Meeting with Trump & Poroshenko’s urgent phone call) #EarthShift #RussiaGreatBalancer
Tchaikovsky & Confucius meet in China.
Putin reveals his conversation with Poroshenko, and his Meeting with Trump.
Good bye, G7! Lavrov talks about the new G8 – SCO, encompassing half of the global landmass and 3 billion of world’s population.
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(The new POST-SOVIET SPACE & THE FUTURE OF EURASIAN UNI…)
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Business & Economy December 20, 20:13
Russian Railways is working on the concept of a cargo train, which will be capable to carry from 300 to 600 tonnes of cargos at a speed up to 300 km per hour.
Cargo transit shipments from Europe to China by Russian high-speed railway will take two days instead of 60 days by sea, President of Russian Railways Oleg Belozerov said speaking at a meeting of the United Russia faction.
“We plan to reach China via Kazakhstan and to carry special high profit cargos to Europe via Russia, because a ship sails now 60 days, which is a long time. It sails round India and only than arrives to Europe. With a high speed (railway) transport we will be able to deliver goods in two days, and to earn extra money for our country,” he said.
Russian Railways’ main task for 2017 is the launch of the project and the start of the construction of the Moscow-Kazan high speed railway.
The Moscow-Kazan High Speed Railway’s total length will stand at around 770 kilometers. Trains may go at a speed of 350-400 kilometers per hour, and the time en route between the two cities could be 3-3.5 hours against the current 14 hours. According to Belozerov the railroad may be commissioned before 2022-2023.
The total cost of the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway line is estimated at 1.068 trillion rubles ($16.8 bln). The Moscow-Kazan section may later be extended to China, connecting the two countries across Kazakhstan. According to the Russian Railways, the length of Moscow-Beijing railroad will be 7769 km, travel time – 32.8 hours (four times faster compared to current 130.4 hours). The average annual passenger traffic is estimated at 195 mln people.
China intends to provide 400 bln rubles ($6.5 bln) for the project of Moscow-Kazan high speed railway as a credit for 20 years and more than 100 bln rubles ($1.6 bln) as a contribution to the charter capital of the special project company.
The German Initiative Consortium (includes Siemens, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bahn and other companies) is ready to allocate 2.7 bln euros to finance the construction of the high-speed railway line and to attract up to 800 mln euros for the project.
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IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS!
From the English language site of EEC: EurasianCommission.org
“Armenia is now in the Eurasian Economic Union”
January 2, the Treaty on Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union EAEU came into force. Armenia became the fourth full-fledged Member-State of the Eurasian Economic Union together with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.
By this Treaty Armenia has become a part of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union, signed by the Presidents of the EAEU Member-States – Alexander Lukashenko, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Vladimir Putin on May 29, 2014 in Astana, as well as other international treaties forming the EAEU legal framework. From now on, Armenia undertakes corresponding obligations, and therewith gets access to the EAEU single market with 170 million citizens.
By joining the Eurasian Economic Union, the state gets fully involved into implementation of the Eurasian project aimed, on the one hand, at forming of four freedoms: free movement of goods, services, capital and labour force. On the other hand, – at creation of one of the key economic centers of evolving architecture of the multipolar world.
The fourth partner expects a number of positive effects form integration. Among the key ones there are an increase of goods turnover due to elimination of barriers and minimization of administrative expenses,an increase of mobility of labour force due to introduction to the single labour market, an increase of stability of economic development due to reduction of economic isolation effect, development of infrastructure projects, participation in drawing up of the agenda using the mechanisms of the Eurasian Economic Union.
The Treaty on accession provides for full involvement of Armenia’s representatives into the activities of the EAEU governance. Upon entry of the Treaty into force the President of Armenia becomes a full-fledged Member of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, and the Prime Minister becomes a Member of Intergovernmental Council; the full-fledged representative joins the Eurasian Economic Commission. Armenia will be represented by three Board Members in the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission, as well as other EAEU Member-States.”
Lada’s notes: As of June 11, 2016, EAEU has 5 full members: following Armenia, Kyrgyzstan joined EAEU in May 2015. Tajikistan is next in line.
Maps of EAEU & membership info are included in ESR9: Attack on Kazakhstan: Who Destabilizes Eurasian Union?
2015 Armenian ‘Electric Maidan’
Between 2014 and 2016 there were 4 very serious attempts to ignite color revolution, instigate regime change and put a rift between Armenia & Russia/EAEU.
Remember: the mega-goal, the primary target and the biggest prize is ALWAYS RUSSIA!
US cannot allow the very possibility of a multipolar world!
So, on January 2, 2015 Armenia officially became a member of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Before that happened and ever since, there have been relentless attempts to destabilize Armenia by all means possible.
I have been warning about it since 2014.
Following a successful subversion of Ukraine by the US, all post-Soviet space leaders, as well as many other heads of state ,have been on high alert, knowing they could easily be next, and their country could be plunged into chaos and bloody war just as easily.
Armenia, due to its isolated and vulnerable geographic position, weak leadership and poor economic situation was the primary target. Since then, four very serious attempts to introduce color revolution, war and chaos were made in Armenia.
Chronologically from 2014 to 2016, these were:
1. A false flag ‘killing by a Russian soldier’ from the nearby military base of an Armenian family: needed to compel Armenia to boot out the Russian base – the only protection Armenia has against Turkey, its eternal enemy.
2. The so-called “Electric Maidan,” during which electric rates hikes were blamed on Russians (who else?), and where Ukrainian nationalists tried to infiltrate protests.
3. Sudden change of Armenia’s political structure from presidential republic to parliamentary republic, thus introducing additional instability.
4. The latest: April 2016 4-day Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan – quelled almost immediately due to Sergey Lavrov and Russia’s prompt peacemaking efforts, resulting in renewed truce. This attempt aimed at destabilizing both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and at creating an additional rift between Russia and Armenia. Further, it was designed to push Azerbaijan away from Russia and closer to Turkey and radical Islamism.
And what an interesting coincidence! The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict escalation happened DURING the visit of both heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the USA, where they attended Nuclear Summit hosted by Barack Obama!
Incidentally, did you know that 160,000 Armenians reside in Los Angeles, USA (the largest Armenian enclave in North America) and that George Clooney is Armenian?
George Clooney & Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan (left) lay flowers at memorial of Armenians’ genocide by Turkey
To find out how Russia, Putin and Lavrov successfully dealt with Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan problems and how the volatile situations were reversed, listen to Lada Ray’s full Earth Shift Report!
Much more hot intel, pics and maps, analytics & clandestine ops revealed in:
(PLUS! Color revolutions & destabilization alerts for Caucasus & Central Asia: intel from Armenia, Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan)
Donate and watch/read this comprehensive report!
Go to ALL EARTH SHIFT REPORTS
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Due to the hot news from Kazakhstan and other EAEU/post-Soviet areas,
I am releasing a new surprise Earth Shift Report 9!
6/11/2016 update: IT’S HERE! CLICK LINK TO WATCH NOW!
(PLUS! Color revolutions & destabilization alerts for Caucasus & Central Asia: intel from Armenia, Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan)
Everything you ever wanted to know about the color revolution attempt in Astana, Almaty and other Kazakh cities on May 21, 2016. I’ve dubbed this attempted Kazakh Maidan: ‘The Agricultural Color Revolution.’ Find out why and how China is involved, but most importantly, how Ukraine, Turkey, ISIS, Soros, NGOs and US are involved.
We will also talk about the latest Aktobe terror attacks on June 5, 2016 and why specifically Aktobe was targeted. Who and why is sending a chilling message? Who’s pulling the strings and who’s the REAL target? How all this affects Russia and EAEU?
Kazakhstan is still on high alert and many shops and other organizations remain closed after the shocking attacks of June 5 in this country, previously considered one of the world’s most stable.
As usual, we’ll look at both: on the ground, local Kazakh intel, and the all-Eurasian and global situation.
For the first time in this report I will reveal certain crucial things about Russia and Kazakhstan’s role in Eurasia. This is brand new material, which is part of my EARTH SHIFT Theory, and of which I’ve never talked previously!
All this will give you the complete picture of what’s really going on!
The report contains a number of eye-witness videos straight from the source, interactive maps and pics and lots of rare intel, complete with my analysis. Lots of goodies in this one!
This is the surprise part: the format of this report is new, different and quite fresh. I think you’ll enjoy it very much. But you’ll have to see for yourself!
Watch now on LadaRay.info!
Also read related
Heads-up to those who have already donated and read
ESR 1 RELOADED: IS PUTIN PART OF NWO – with BONUS: LUKASHENKO’S BLUFF
I HAVE POSTED AN IMPORTANT UPDATE, WHICH YOU CAN FIND UNDER THIS TITLE:
“An urgent update from October 13, 2015!
BELARUS ELECTIONS RESULTS”
(located at the top of the Lukashenko/Belarus section of the report)
Those who have donated and already read ESR 1 RELOADED, please go back to your bookmarked report page to read the full update re. latest Belarus events. Any difficulty accessing the report, please email us per instructions in above link!
For all other readers, you can donate any amount and read the full report by clicking on link above.
Below, I am offering some telling excerpts from this important update, in order to answer some questions I’ve received.
Excerpts from the newly added piece to Earth Shift Report 1:
Urgent update! BELARUS ELECTION RESULTS:
Belarus just had presidential elections, which were probably the quietest elections the world has seen for the longest time, bypassed for attention by world MSM, as if they didn’t exist. Surprisingly – or not – no one in the West seemed to have noticed how easily and with what stellar result Lukashenko was re-elected. It wasn’t the case in the past.
Belorussian opposition, so trumpeted by the West in the past as being suppressed, this time was practically non-existent. And not because someone was suppressing them – just the opposite. They were allowed to congregate freely. Yet, hardly anyone came and hardly anyone voted for them.
What happened? Wasn’t Lukashenko for years labeled in the West as the last dictator of Europe?
Why such sudden silence?
Lukashenko, that sly fox. He just won his re-election for another five years without a hitch. Moreover, the pro-Western opposition in the country is the weakest it has been for the past 25+ years. Why, you ask?
Very simple. The sly fox Lukashenko has skillfully capitalized on the differences between EU, Ukraine, US and Russia to prop up his regime and his country. First of, I don’t blame him; this is what any smart leader would do. Second, do you hear Russia complaining?
Well, to be precise, Russia doesn’t complain, apart from the ‘little misunderstanding’ last year when Belarus suddenly became the Smuggling Central of the banned European foods and sanctioned products to Russia. They would slap Belorussian labels on these items and re-export them as if they were produced in Belarus. More about that below.
This is free market for you – that’s how it works: they saw an opening and they went for it.
Usually in the past, term-after-term re-election of Lukashenko, who is holding on to power for dear life, had been accompanied with Western-sponsored opposition riots and anti-Belarus sanctions. A few years ago the ‘protesters’ tried to start a Ukraine-like maidan in Minsk; they broke the glass doors and tried to storm the parliament building. Scores were arrested, including heads of the openly financed by the West Belarus opposition and some violent thugs from Ukraine and Baltics. After that a vicious anti-Lukashenko campaign started in Western MSM. This time – silence.
Here are the main reasons for such stellar and smooth re-election.
This is the time for Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and others to lay low and pretend. Everyone does it the way they can. Last year, Russia advised all these former republics that Ukraine-like scenario was coming and color revolution attempts would occur. Armenia went through an attempted maidan based on electricity rate hikes, and it was successfully stopped.
Maidan attempts continue in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where a virtual war rages on the border (More in ESR 5: Syria Game Changer).
Kazakhstan addressed the problem in its own way. As we’ve seen above, they had early presidential elections, which the West didn’t have the time to prepare for. Nuland didn’t have the opportunity to organize a violent maidan there. I am sure one was being prepared for next year, but Nazarbayev preempted it by the unexpected snap elections.
This leaves Belarus, the western-most of all and most exposed by virtue of porous borders with Ukraine and Poland.
I was asked: if Lukashenko is such an ally of Russia, why did he refuse to host a proposed Russian military base?
Lukashenko is now capitalizing on the fact that everywhere US/EU are engaged in a conflict, the situation is deteriorating and they have their hands full. The West is stretched to the core in conflicts involving Syria, Ukraine, China and Russia. Lukashenko understands that compared to all these hotspots Belarus is a pussy cat presently to the West, especially if they sit quietly.
Let’s again underscore this very important point:
IT IS THE WEST THAT ALWAYS STARTS CONFLICTS, OR SUPPORTS THEM, ALL OVER THE GLOBE. Other countries are relegated to the role of either being quiet slaves – like much of the world; or defending themselves – like Syria, Belarus, China; or fighting back and fixing them – like Russia, the Great Balancer of the World has to do regularly.
Before these elections, 200 heavily armed with bats, Molotov cocktails and heavy chains ukro-nazis tried to get in from Ukraine. They were detained on the border and sent back, weapons taken away from them. Various groups tried to stage rallies, which gathered just a few dozen people, most of them Western press, who immediately would zero in on some ‘protester’ throwing a tantrum. The militsia (police) was given order not to come near them, unless they were causing real trouble. By ignoring such public tantrums, police avoided being photographed next to ‘protesters.’ Such photos would undoubtedly be spun later in the West as Lukashenko suppressing the voice of opposition.
The thing is that Belarus opposition is starving.
Meanwhile, compared to what is happening in surrounding countries, Lukashenko to his people looks like a veritable Prince of Peace, a messiah incarnate, so to speak.
In reality, my article below provides the complete picture of how the BELORUSSIAN MIRACLE WAS REALLY MADE – and it’s not just Belarus leader’s wisdom, although his ability to maneuver and survive in turbulent times cannot be underestimated!
Oh, and about the Russian base. First of all, this could have been a targeted info dump by Russia – a message to the EU, if you will. Lukashenko saying no before elections also feels like an orchestrated info dump (do read my comprehensive article on how to tell a hoax from targeted info dump on FuturisTrendcast). In reality, neither Russia, nor Belarus share with the West their real intentions any more. This was shown well by the Kazakhstan snap elections and by Russia’s actions in Crimea and Syria. The element of surprise is the most important element in the current global spread.
I know – we, the peaceful and good people of the world don’t want to hear this. But the truth is this: the West has declared a war against Russia and the Russian world, as well as against China. You don’t openly share your REAL plans in a war.
That’s where Putin’s genius for surprise and brilliant moves comes in.
CONSULTATIONS: Quantum Calibrations — Earth & Personal Shift — Predictions — Feng Shui
Interesting body language during Ukraine peace talks in Minsk (2014). President of Belarus Lukashenko (center left) inviting Putin to proceed, while subconsciously blocking Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Katherine Ashton of EU.
See more about the telling body language in Lada Ray Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine; Putin, Gorbachev, Poroshenko.
This post is part of
EARTH SHIFT REPORT 1 double feature+
From the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Belarus has been playing a role of a moderator between Ukraine and EU on one side and Russia and Donbass/Novorossia on the other. This culminated in the Minsk accords and ceasefire in E. Ukraine, which admittedly, aren’t being observed very well. But many still believe it’s better than nothing. It is definitely some kind of a start on the way to peace desperately needed by the poor citizens who live under constant threat of bombings. The most important thing Minsk can do is provide a neutral, friendly to both sides, platform in case there is a sudden need in a meeting between warring parties in Ukraine. Play Switzerland, so to speak.
Make no mistake, for little Belarus, this is their star hour. Since 1994, when Lukashenko first became Belarusian president, he’s been labeled the ‘last dictator of Europe’ and tyrant. Belarus has been on and off under sanctions; the beginnings of the newly independent post-Soviet republic were very humble. All this happened because, unlike most, Belarus refused to forget the Soviet past and refused to give up their economy to please the West.
I wrote previously that in the early ’90s, Ukraine was touted by the West as the MOST developed of the USSR’s three Slavic republics (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus) – even more so than Russia. Starting in 1990-91, with its educated population, spectacular agricultural soils and developed tech industry (built by Russia during Soviet times) Ukraine was trumpeted as ‘most likely to succeed’ among all post-Soviet republics.
Western ‘experts,’ with some Russian neo-liberals and oligarchs jumping on the bandwagon, predicted that Russia would turn into a no-man’s land, and slowly disintegrate all by herself. Just goes to show how inept and little-minded Western and neo-liberal Russian ‘experts’ are. Needless to say, none of these ‘predictions’ came true.
For real predictions that actually do come true, read my PREDICTIONS.
At the same time as Ukraine was given prime time, Belarus was either neglected and laughed at in the West, or maligned.
As an aside: it is now crystal clear WHY the West praised Ukraine in the early ’90s, while putting Russia down. The plan was to put as big of a wedge as possible between the two closest people – Russians and Ukrainians, and to make Russians feel inadequate and incapable of resistance in the midst of the wholesale demolition of the Russian economy. Something similar, but accompanied with a civil war, is happening now in Ukraine. Note, the Kiev coup and violent overturn of Yanukovich took place after Yanukovich refused to sign the EU association agreement that would rob Ukraine blind.
The above strategy towards Russia worked for a time, while Yeltsin was in power. But the moment Putin came to power, the tide changed dramatically. I observed Putin since the moment he appeared on world stage in 2000. Unlike American ‘analysts’ and talking heads, I knew from the very first moment that a massive change was about to begin. Putin was very smart to lay low for a while, until he gathered enough allies and strength to start acting, while US elites for 2-3 years labored under a misapprehension that he would be just as easy as Yeltsin.
I wrote about Putin in my mystical thriller THE EARTH SHIFTER (character’s name is President Dobrov). I will discuss Putin in detail in the upcoming THE PUTIN ENIGMA Report, which you will find soon at LadaRay.info. Also, a great piece to read is: FREE Earth Shift Report 1: Is Putin Part of NWO?
While the West was concentrating on Russia, Ukraine and other strategic locations, Belarus remained in the shadows. Lukashenko, when he came to power, became that tough leader who managed to keep the country together and provide stability. This allowed Belarusians to slowly build on Soviet platform, developing what we now understand was a rich and profitable inheritance. While Russia was being looted by oligarchs and their Western backers, while Ukraine was also looted by oligarchs, falling at the same time deeper and deeper into its self-inflicted delusion and mass psychosis, Belarus kept its head down and worked very hard. Belarusians are very hard-working, friendly and rather low-key people.
During the Russian Empire days Belarus was one of the poorest territories of Russia. They survived on potatoes alone and were to the 19th century Russia what Ireland was to Western Europe: a tucked away on the western-most outskirts and poor like church rats territory no one was interested in. Perhaps that memory of extreme poverty and obscurity is what made Belarusians both cunning and hard-working. Without any oil, gas, or any other natural resources to speak of, Belarus managed to pull out in much better shape than once much richer neighboring Ukraine, Latvia and Lithuania (latter two – EU members).
Most post-Soviet republics squandered their formidable Soviet inheritance, resulting in decimation of industry, mass exodus of population, and other catastrophes. Ukraine is the best example of that – I write about it here: FREE Earth Shift Report 2: Ukraine, Russia and Falsified History.
Next to Belarus, another example of being able to preserve their heritage despite all odds is the unrecognized Pridnestrovie (Transnistria). More about it here: Moldova Explosion Coming 2: Coalition “Moldova’s Choice-Customs Union” and LRL2: Explosion Coming! Moldova/Transnistria – Eurasian Union vs EU.
Despite sanctions and constant fighting with the West, Lukashenko did several pretty brilliant things for his country and people:
1. Unlike most post-Soviet republics, he preserved the Soviet industrial and agricultural inheritance – and built on it.
2. Kept the country stable.
3. Managed to stay friends with Russia.
4. As a result of a special relationship with Russia, Belarus managed to receive the world’s lowest price on Russian gas and very favorable Russian loans.
5. Let’s not forget: Belarus, together with Kazakhstan and Russia is one of the three founding members of Eurasian Union.
Right to left: Putin of Russia, Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Lukashenko of Belarus – founding members of Eurasian Union
All the above factors, but especially the cheap, cheap gas paved the way to the so-called ‘Belarusian miracle.’ Belarus pays something to the tune of $165 for its gas, which is about the same as heavily subsidized internal Russian price. Compare that to $350-400+ EU pays. The new price for gas for Ukraine is about $385, however, they don’t pay that either. Such gas price makes Belarusian economy extremely competitive internationally. Obviously, without Russian almost free gas and Russian subsidies Belarusian miracle they are so proud of would have never happened.
The above is an illustration of how Russia robbed herself to subsidize other republics, and some other poor countries, during Soviet times. Some readers asked me how Russia could have disengaged in the ’90s from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other republics, which allowed the US/West to infiltrate them resulting in color revolutions and anti-Russian pro-NATO states on Russian borders. Of course, it was a bad geopolitical decision to disengage. Yet, it can be understood: Russia always paid disproportioned price for supporting others, at her own expense. This made the core Russian population resentful.
Presently, Russia is attempting to balance own interests with the necessity to support allies.
What is Belarusian miracle?
Belarus preserved all of the industrial factories Russia built on its territory during Soviet times. And then, Belarus expanded and modernized them. Today Belarus exports its machinery to over 100 countries; its busses, tractors and heavy trucks are world-known. Belarus is also well-known in the garment industry. They make clothes for export and Belarussian cheap labor (compared to Europe) is often used by Italian designers. They produce much higher quality stuff than China. Traditional Belarusian agriculture also developed well and became quite efficient. Today, Russians go to Belarus to learn agricultural management.
Roads in Belarus – the transit country between Russia and EU – are BETTER than in the EU. The country is incredibly clean everywhere. This is how I remember growing up in the Soviet Union: everything, everywhere was very clean. This heritage Belarus also preserved.
As I mentioned before, there are no oligarchs in Belarus; there are rich people, but fewer than in neighboring countries. At the same time, average citizens feel more protected by the state. Pensioners get decent state pensions and subsidies, feeling secure. Inflation is high, but so far it’s manageable. Utilities and communal (housing/yard maintenance, water, gas, heat) payments are a fraction of what people pay in Russia (where they are not high either), and especially in the EU. All education, including college, is free. Students get paid stipendium for good grades. This is another Soviet heritage that Belarus preserved. Compare that to recent announcement by Ukraine that school pupils after 9th grade will have to pay to attend 10th and 11th grades if they want to complete secondary education.
In the summer of 2014 I visited Belarus. Everything I describe is from personal experiences. Of course there are problems – which country doesn’t have them. But overall, there are undeniable achievements.
Sly fox Lukashenko and international relations
Throughout the years, there were certain disputes and gas price disagreements between Russia and Belarus, as well as attempts by Belarus to capitalize on Ukraine and EU’s pressure on Russia. There were attempts to blackmail Russia due to gas transit. 20% of Russian gas to the EU goes through Belarus. Belarus often plays on Russia-West differences in order to get what they want (like a child of the divorced parents, who would play mom and dad). These games are relatively successful. It’s a balancing act for everyone involved, to be sure.
A reader once asked me about the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. My opinion of him hasn’t changed: he is an old sly fox. Lukashenko isn’t stupid; nor is Belarus likely to turn into Ukraine.
Read my article about US lifting sanctions against Cuba: Weakness or Cunning? Why US decided to End 50-Year Standoff with Cuba Now. I said that small and in-between countries can benefit during this era of mega-clashes among the giants, if they are smart. One could make a case for it being manipulative, just like the aforementioned spoiled kid playing divorced parents against each other.
Lukashenko is doing just that. He is using a conflict between Russia and EU/US to cozy up to the West.
Presently, A huge problem with Belarus for Russia is that taking advantage of Russia’s sanctions against the EU agriculture imports, Belarus has become a massive smuggling center. They would bring in tuna or oysters, usually imported from France or Italy, and slap their own labels to re-export that to Russia, trying to pass it as their own product. Considering Belarus doesn’t have a sea…
Other things they re-appropriate and re-export this way are fruits and veggies they never grew, fancy French cheeses they never made, and even things like jeans. While Russia is trying to crack down on Belarusian smuggling, Russia still needs Belarus. So, I don’t see this conflict going very far. Basically, it’s akin to an argument in the family – eventually the family will gather for dinner again, as if nothing happened.
Why does Lukashenko need Western love?
1. Lukashenko desperately needs loans. Belarusian miracle doesn’t come cheap. Belarus is due to pay out $4bln in interest soon.
2. Elections are coming up. Lukashenko always cozies up to the West in such periods to try to prevent a color revolution they always plan around such dates to attempt unseating him. After the elections everything returns back to normal.
3. Lukashenko, being the sly fox that he is, uses any conflict between Russia and the West to get as much preferential treatment from both as possible, while it lasts. There is also the issue of pride and self-importance. Belarus has been customarily passed over for attention. The result is a burning desire to play a bigger role on world stage. Can’t blame them.
4. Belarus is trying to position itself as a moderator and go-in-between transit country between EU and Russia. AND THEY WANT TO CHARGE THROUGH THE NOSE FOR THAT. What else is new? Hence investment in the best roads possible.
5. Opening a joint Ukraine-Belarus TV channel is done for the same purpose: ‘See, how good we are as a moderator and peacemaker.’ It’s a good will demo of sorts. It must be understood that this neutral moderator position of Belarus is equally good for both Ukraine/EU and Russia/Donbass. There must be neutral grounds to discuss matters of war and peace.
My assessment is that the cunning Lukashenko, in his own way, is contributing to pulling back together what in Russia is called ‘the three brotherly nations – Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians.’
Based on the opening of the joint Belarus-Ukraine TV channel and other signs some read as worrying, a reader has asked me if I saw Belarus as turning into another Ukraine.
No, I absolutely do not. While Lukashenko is alive, he won’t let that happen. Belarusian citizens looking at the mess across the border, are very happy they have Lukashenko.
Of course, there are other objective reasons, as described above:
1. Belarusian economy is in an incomparably better shape than Ukrainian. In big part, maidan and Kiev coup took place because of the disastrous, pre-bankruptcy state of Ukraine’s economy and its wholesale looting by local oligarchs and foreign interests.
2. Unlike Ukraine, Belarus doesn’t have oligarchs, therefore, no one internally to finance and sustain a color revolution. Of course, external pressure remains. US and EU still do everything to unseat Lukashenko every time there are elections. Rioters get bussed in from Poland and Lithuania to incite violence. But Belarus KGB (yes, it’s still called KGB – talk about preserving Soviet heritage!) is on top of it.
Incidentally, there is censorship in Belarus.
3. Lukashenko is real leader and he won’t do what Yanukovich did in February. Incidentally, Lukashenko has many times announced how he feels about Yanukovich and his inadequate actions during the Kiev coup. He said publicly that Yanukovich was supposed to stay and fight, that he needed to be more decisive in countering the coup, and that he should have died fighting, like a captain of a ship. As we know, Yanukovich escaped from Ukraine barely alive. By making such statements, Lukashenko isn’t simply expressing his views on Ukraine conflict – in fact, he is letting Belarusians and the West know what he will do should such situation arise in his country. This is basically an announcement that if anyone attempts this scenario in Minsk, they won’t get very far.
After the above assessment of Ukraine deposed leader’s actions, after being buddy-buddy with Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, Lukashenko still manages to stay friends with Yanukovich and his family, which is a testament to how cunning and shrewd of a diplomat he is.
Many dislike the fact that Belarus isn’t helping Donbass, or that Lukashenko hugs and shakes hands with the Kiev junta leaders. I would say it’s a useful stance even if it seems a bit unsavory. Diplomacy and maneuvering may often seem this way to an outsider. But without reaching a compromise, peace and conflict resolution is rarely possible in our highly polarized world.
In short – no, Belarus has no chance of following Ukraine, although attempts to unseat Lukashenko will continue. Lukashenko, for his part, will continue maneuvering between Russia and the West, Russia and Ukraine.
Belarus is well-positioned in the EAU. That said, of course Belarus will exploit its transit country status and its status of the only country located between Russia and the EU that is capable and willing to be a bona fide go-in-between. Same goes for Ukraine. Belarus will milk for all it’s worth the Ukraine conflict to raise its international status as the country-moderator.
What is EU up to?
The above notwithstanding, I received news that EU is trying to slowly correct the anti-Russian sanctions disaster by going broader. Will that have an effect remains to be seen. There are indications that EU is courting Belarus and Kazakhstan trying to distance them from Russia. If that kind of behavior continues, this won’t bridge any gaps. All it will do is create even more distrust.
EU now attempts to reach out (read: seduce, entice) these other Eurasian Union members. The idea is to get an in with Russia/ or influence Russia through them. It’s a very convoluted and complex game. German VC recently spoke about that proposal. French president Hollande recently paid a surprise visit to Kazakhstan for secret talks with Nazarbayev. On the way back from Kazakhstan, Hollande made a surprise stop in Moscow and met with Putin. Hollande admitted that it was in fact Kazakh President Nazarbayev who encouraged him to stop in Moscow for a chat with the Russian President. The new Belarus – EU warming up also plays into this scenario.
All in all, I can absolutely say that both Lukashenko of Belarus and Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan are solid leaders, and right where they are supposed to be. Their role is to serve as vitally important links and help the Russian leader Putin in the re-formatting of the world system. More about that in future Earth Shift Reports.
Putin and Hollande in France, May 2014
Understandably, EU is trying to find ways of a round-about compromise with Russia. If this is sincere, Russia would welcome that. In my opinion, Russia has to be very careful not to fall into a new trap, if it turns out EU’s real intention is to distance Kazakhstan and Belarus from Russia. Of course this is also happening at the same time as US and UK are escalating the conflict, which isn’t encouraging (I’ll have more about that soon).
In the final analysis, the courting of Kazakhstan and Belarus won’t go very far. EU has to be careful not to burn even more bridges than they already have. I’d be cautiously optimistic about the EU move. It’s high time constructive and reasonable forces prevailed in the EU.
I wanted to end on an optimistic note, but I simply have to add this. Unfortunately, I have come to a conclusion that for as long as Merkel is in power, there will be no meaningful movement towards cooperation and dialogue. After giving Merkel a lot of benefit of the doubt, I have become convinced that she is a secret russophobe. She has been that all her life, but being a politician, she has been hiding it very well. I wrote about my assessment of how she grew up in some of my previous articles.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel
In addition, Merkel has been compromised by NSA surveillance. There is no doubt in my mind that NSA has very damaging dirt on her, therefore pulling her strings as necessary. For these two reasons a meaningful dialogue with the EU will be very difficult for Russia, until the change of guard in Germany.
A supremely interesting and reveailing discussion continues in the comment section! Remember to check it out!
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Related new post: Putin’s Full Speech at 2015 UNGA: Do You Realize What Kind of Monster You’ve Created? This post includes my translation of Belarus President Alexandr Lukashenko’s new speech at the UN General Assembly 2015.
EarthShift TV – Video 1
On Thursday, May 29, 2014, the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have signed the Eurasian Economic Agreement. This, first video of the newly launched EarthShift TV contains fresh information, in addition to Lada Ray’s original article, which went viral, analysing the global consequences of the Eurasian Union and new Eurasian currency Altyn. Discussed are: Lada’s predictions regarding gold, natural resources, USA and US dollar, Russia, China, Eurasia and EU; history of the new Eurasian currency Altyn and its origins; Cyprus banking crisis and its connection to Russia’s gold reserves; what are the real gold reserves of China, Russia, India and Kazakhstan; long cycles of human development; plus striking images of the mystical capital of Kazakhstan, Astana. Read the original article Global Consequences: Russia Announces Eurasian Union and New Currency Altyn.
According to the Moscow Times (pro-Western, not a Putin supporter), “The Eurasian Economic Union agreement, signed by the leaders of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in the Kazakh capital of Astana, will come into force on Jan. 1, 2015. It envisages the gradual integration of the three former Soviet countries’ economies, establishing free trade, unbarred financial interaction and unhindered labor migration.
At the signing ceremony, President Vladimir Putin said, “Today we are creating a powerful center of gravity for economic development, a large regional market that unites more than 170 million people.”
He also stressed that the union’s combined territory is a hydrocarbon treasury, possessing a fifth of all global natural gas resources and 15 percent of all oil reserves.”
Breaking news: in addition to Armenia and Kyrgyzstan slanted to join Eurasian Union in 2015, Tadjikistan is also in line for joining.
On multiple prior occasions I have predicted that any sanctions against Russia by the West will only backfire, expediting Russia’s re-orientation to the East and the unavoidable re-molding of the Western financial/economic model.
Russia’s re-orientation and subsequent creation of the independent financial system is what the banksters of Wall Street and London City fear most. This will eventually result in a catastrophe for the US/UK and EU, except for those European countries that succeed in re-orienting their economies to the East. Meanwhile, Russia, China and other countries in the Eurasian space, will benefit tremendously. Read: Ukraine Part 7: Russia’s Geopolitics, USA’s Bluff and EU’s Big Mistake.
The US and EU can be proud: as a result of their aggressively provocative behavior and the double standards galore, they managed to expedite the process by at least ten years. Read the rest of this entry