Putin Announces Troops Withdrawal from Syria.
Russia’s Accomplishments and Withdrawal Reasons Revealed!
Putin is the most unpredictable politician in the world: he always tells the truth.
As many times before, Putin openly pre-announced Russian objectives in Syria and said that once they have been achieved, Russia will withdraw. It appears the West was under a complete impression Putin was lying. No wonder: that’s how they themselves behave, and they expect the same behavior from others. Their feeble minds can’t fathom that there are few out there who actually tell the truth.
What were Russia’s main objectives? Let’s hear it directly from the horse’s mouth.
This special talk show Evening with Vladimir Soloviev of March 15, 2016, dedicated to Russian withdrawal from Syria (Вечер с Владимиром Соловьевым. Спецвыпуск от 15.03.16), includes an excerpt from the televised October 2015 interview with President Putin. Incidentally, Evening with Vladimir Soloviev is my top recommended Russian political talk show.
I have translated the interview snippet. Soloviev (S), President Putin (P).
On this video, the October 2015 Putin interview recording starts at 23:12 and ends at 24:50:
S: What are our real goals in Syria and what are the criteria of our success?
P: First, let me re-confirm what is already a well-known fact: we have advised in advance our American and many other partners, as well as the countries in the region, of our plans and intentions. Some say we did it too late, but let me remind everyone that no one ever advises us of their plans or actions in operations of this kind. Yet, we did it.
S: Show of good will?
P: Yes, out of good will, together with common sense. But also to show that we are open to cooperation.
S: Syrian army began advancing. What are their chances of success?
P: This primarily depends on the Syrian army and Syrian leadership. We can’t assume any excessive responsibility upon ourselves, and we never did. I said from the start that the active phase of our Syrian operation will be limited in time by the term of the advancement of this same Syrian army. To return to your first question: our goal is specifically to stabilize the legitimate power in Syria and to create the conditions for the political dialogue and compromise.
That was said in October 2015. The whole Russian plan, timeframe and intentions were laid out clearly, for all world to hear.
Video (Putin at 23:12 – 24:50 – RUS):
LR: To add to the above, Putin and Russian Army command announced from the start that Syrian op would last 5-6 months. There were tons of doom-and-gloomers everywhere, including Russian opposition from Zhirinovsky’s LDPR to pro-West anti-Putin liberals. These predicted that Russia would get stuck in Syria, like US did in Iraq and Afghanistan, that it will be Afghanistan 2.0 for Russia, that casualties would mount…
The active phase of Russian Syrian op actually ended in 5 months! There were only two operation-related military casualties, due to Turkey’s downing of the Russian jet and rescue helicopter. Unfortunately, there were civilian casualties: terrorist act against Russian plane over Sinai, Egypt, with 224 people dead.
On March 14-15, 2016 Putin Announced Russian Troops Withdrawal from Syria. The West is in shock. They are so used to their own lies, as well as the world around them based solely on lies, that they can’t fathom how Putin can actually promise something and keep his word. As we know, the White House, Pentagon, US State Dept and NATO were completely unprepared and didn’t know what to say or how to react to the news.
I will talk much more in-depth about Putin’s strategy and style, which – I predict – will continue to surprise and stomp his adversaries, in the upcoming EARTH SHIFT REPORT FEATURE: THE PUTIN ENIGMA. You can always check the main EARTH SHIFT REPORT page on LadaRay.info for release dates of each report.
In my bestselling Earth Shift Report 5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER, released in October 2015, and in a number of other pieces, I said time and again that Putin would outplay them all. He will make his next move when no one expects it, and he will always be one, two, three moves ahead of the next guy.
Main reasons for Russian troops withdrawal from Syria revealed!
I didn’t call Earth Shift Report 5 SYRIA GAME CHANGER by accident. What Russia did in Syria in the mere five months truly was a total game changer and a complete turnaround.
Below is a long list of objectives of the Russian Syria campaign that have been achieved in five months. (I challenge you to compare this list of things promised and delivered to what the multi-year US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have done to those countries; what NATO bombings have done to Libya; what the US/EU 2-year+ interference in Ukraine has turned the country into!)
Important things to remember:
Let’s recall that Russia announced from the start that there will be no ground operation. It was clear that Russia doesn’t want to repeat Soviet and US mistakes in the Middle East.
Also, let’s remember that this withdrawal is partial. This is a gesture designed to send a specific message to all parties involved, and to the global community in general. What this message is – we’ll discuss below.
Russia merely announced the end to the active phase of Syria operations. There are two bases and sufficient number of troops/crews left. Russia still controls the Syrian sky. S-400 systems remain there, which means that any flights over Syria have to be coordinated with Russia.
Additionally, it has been hinted that Russian jets, troops and ships can be returned back within hours, should necessity arise. In fact, Vladimir Putin announced that starting March 22 Russia may re-start operations against those who attempt to break the truce. This remark had a fabulous response. Those groups who thought they could begin fighting with Assad troops again once Russia left, got back to negotiations table.
Russia spent on Syrian operation $450 million. That’s all. This constitutes less than 1 percent of the Russian defence budget.
I don’t have handy the Pentagon or NATO budget numbers, but isn’t it something like their weekly allowance? Incidentally, let’s compare this to how much US spent in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Russian accomplishments in Syria and associated withdrawal reasons:
1. ISIS oil infrastructure – destroyed or weakened; ISIS military and terrorist infrastructure – destroyed or weakened. Multi-billion investments of ISIS/Al Nusra/ Muslim Brotherhood’s sponsors Qatar, Saudis and Turkey – destroyed. ISIS, Turkey, Saudi and Qatar oil – synthetic drug – slave – artifact smuggling ring broken, which means that the financing of terrorist activities has been dealt a major blow.
2. What really goes on in Syria has been exposed for the whole world to see. Before, the Western propaganda had a monopoly on Syria stories, presenting its usual false narrative. Now, with Russian direct footage and access given for the Western press to Russian bases and battle ships patrolling Mediterranean much of the false narrative changed dramatically. Having seen the truth, US and EU became unable to accuse Russia or Assad of various actions they didn’t commit. The Western propaganda ring has been broken and the tide has been reversed.
3. Some of the potential new recruits have been scared away from joining ISIS-Daesh and other terrorist organizations by Russian Syria campaign. The idea that they would be bombed by Russian jets, should they join, stopped many. Therefore, the lives of some of the young, lost people residing on the territory of the Russian Federation, EU and various Muslim counties, have been saved.
Per Russian statistics, about 5,000 Russian citizens joined ISIS, mostly Muslims from Caucasus, Siberia, Volga Tatars and Crimean Tatars. Also thousands joined from Muslim ex-Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. These were recruited through mosques and infiltrated propagandists. The flow of ‘fresh cannon fodder’ has been at least slowed down, if not stopped.
One of pre-announced Russian goals was to prevent the already trained ISIS militants from being able to return back home, which they could do with their Russian passports. The official Russian statistics is that out of 5,000 ISIS militants with Russian passports 2,000 have been killed as a result of Russian raids.
4. Another Russian goal was to keep Syria secular and inclusive of other religions, in other words, prevent Syria from turning into another Muslim fundamentalist state. There are many Christians (both Orthodox and Catholics) that lived in Syria in peace for millennia; Assad government was always respectful of other religions. These Christians and their cities received one of the biggest blows during the invasion by ISIS. Result of Russian campaign: secular Syrian state re-affirmed, made stronger and more consolidated. Assad has been re-affirmed as national leader, at least in the interim.
5. Syrian army was able to advance and take back a number of territories, which they were unable to re-take on their own. Now the Syrian government controls about 1/2 of Syria. Just six months ago it was only about 20% of Syrian territory.
7. The trend of Syrian opposition (dubbed by US ‘moderate’) fighting Assad government troops has been decidedly reversed. Truce achieved and holding; moderate opposition has been taken out of the fight mode with Assad and is now working with Assad against ISIS. Moreover, the number of groups and bands in truce with the government continues growing daily. Altogether, there are thousands of such groups and they are all trying to secure a place for themselves in the future of Syria. All this, thanks to the skilled combined effort of the Russian military and diplomacy.
Russia opened a Center for the Syrian dialogue in Moscow, where different Syrian opposition groups can register and speak up.
Russia also put together a list of those opposition groups that want to be taken out of harms ways. If you are on the list, then you agree to the truce and to stop fighting against Assad troops. Everyone on the list agrees to fight only against ISIS. In exchange, they are guaranteed not to be bombed by Russian jets and to be included in Syrian political process.
All the above has been achieved within five months. It’s in stark contrast to the destruction and chaos US/EU and their ME allies achieved through years of inciting wars, hatred and violence.
In fact, Russia reversed the trend of US and allies encouraging ISIS and other terrorist organizations to grow like a tumor. Certainly, it’s too early to talk about ISIS/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood being dealt a deathly blow. We are still very far from a true resolution of the Middle East problems and crises. If you recall, my prediction last year was that the Middle East would suffer from violence and various conflicts for a long time due to many millennial issues that have remained unresolved. Resolution will take a very long time.
But what Russia has shown in Syria is that resolution is possible; that a very discerning and targeted surgical intervention, aiming at stabilizing the country, while isolating and taking out of the equation the destructive forces, can lead to hope of a better future. The smart leaders and countries will heed this and follow the example.
8. In the eyes of various groups in Syria, and in the eyes of the entire Middle East, Russia is now the main peacemaker and the go-to country for all grievances and deals.
A pilgrimage of various Syria opposition groups to Moscow doesn’t cease. Similarly, every week and month there are leaders of various Middle Eastern countries visiting Moscow for negotiations. Russia received leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan UAE, and everyone in between, including those, like Qatar, who just recently tried to undermine Russia, and who were implicated in the Russian passenger plane downing over Sinai, Egypt. Not that Qatar or SA would stop their undermining activities, but at least for now they have to negotiate.
Leaders of the Kurds from Syria, Iraq and Turkey have been visiting Moscow and meeting with Russians. Kurdistan’s first representative office has opened in Moscow.
Incidentally, as described in SYRIA GAME CHANGER, Israeli PM Netanyahu was one of the first to visit Moscow before the start of the Russian Syria incursion in 2015. Back then I said that Israel, with the usual Jewish shrewdness, knew who to ‘call.’ Let’s say that Israel knew ‘the right phone number’ and understood how to position itself before Syria events. This is why Israel was first to sign a Syria cooperation and intel sharing deal with Russia. I said back then that Israel knows where the wind is blowing and is re-orienting itself towards Russia, Eurasia and SCO. Also read ESR6: NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE? for a perspective on the true Israeli spread and future direction.
For those who want to hear me out: I said many times before that we are going through a massive Earth Shift in all areas of life on the planet. I am your guide in this tectonic Earth Shift. Those who read my FREE articles, Earth Shift Reports and materials on LadaRay.info, especially LADA RAY OMNIVERSE section, will be well prepared for the Shift to come.
8. As a result of years of USA’s failures, especially compared to Russia’s success, US influence in the Middle East is waning fast. Russian influence is growing just as fast.
Non-ISIS/non-Al Nusra opposition is now much less likely to look to the US and much more likely to go to Russia for advice and direction.
US clout in the Middle East is extremely low, even in the countries fully dependent in them. Saudis consider themselves betrayed by the US and continue giving signals to Russia that they want closer cooperation (frankly, I wouldn’t trust them for a moment, but a situational alliance might be useful). Iraq and Afghanistan continue attempting to ask Russia for assistance in fighting ISIS on their territory, while US continues blocking these requests. Russians signaled they would help Afghanistan and Iraq, if asked formally by their governments. One of the big reasons to help is that terrorists and smugglers from those two could potentially infiltrate Central Asia and south Caucasus, from where they can get into Russia proper through porous ex-Soviet republics’ borders.
The latest on that: Russian military signaled that they have secured the Central Asian borders in Tajikistan through the newly expanded base and that infiltration isn’t possible any more.
9. Russia achieved its goal of securing bases in Syria / on the Mediterranean coast. Russia now has two bases, which will continue being maintained. All this will be secured by diplomatic documents that will hold under international scrutiny regardless of what government comes after Assad.
10. Russia got US to take off the table its demand that ‘Assad must go’ – a MAJOR win for Russia and a major show of US weakness.
11. Syria elections – another achievement. This means that Assad has been legitimized in the eyes of the West and Syrian opposition. They all now have to work with Assad, whether they want it or not.
If Assad is reconfirmed as the national leader by elections, they will have no choice but to recognize him. If he isn’t reconfirmed, then there will be new government, which, unlike Libya, destroyed by the US and EU interference, will have to be secular and inclusive, under Russian and international supervision.
12. I wrote about this in SYRIA GAME CHANGER. Federalization of Syria and the Kurds is possible. I consider this a good outcome, if done correctly. Kurds announced they are forming a federation (aka, autonomy) within Syria. At the very minimum, this means they are not trying to secede, further destabilizing the region. This announcement, so far not recognized by Assad or internationally, puts a lot of pressure on Erdogan and Turkey, who are bombing and killing Kurds on their own territory. For the Turkish Kurds now there is an inspiring example in Syria. This weakens Erdogan. I have talked at length in ESR5 and ESR7 about Erdogan, Davutoglu, ans the issue of the Kurds.
In ESR5 I said that Syria needs to move to federalization. Russia, the world’s largest federation, can help Syria like no other.
Assad is afraid to recognize Kurdish autonomy as well, fearing this will lead to further destabilization of the country. He is partially right: US/West/Saudi/Qatar/Turkey’s interference in the affairs of decentralized, autonomous regions will be that much easier. But Assad may have no choice. In the end it all depends on how skilled his diplomats and politicians are. Russia will lend a hand in negotiations.
As a matter of fact, it has been recognized by various opposition and pro-government forces that Russia is the one and only power to talk to. As one Assad’s opponent said, ‘now Russia is again seen as the only peacemaker in the region by all forces in Syria.’
13. Withdrawing at the time when Kerry and Lavrov have decided on the framework on Syria negotiations and when the main list of Syrian ‘moderate’ opposition’ groups has been compiled underscores Russia’s commitment to peaceful, diplomatic solution of Syrian conflict.
Since Geneva negotiations between government and opposition began, the withdrawal and cessation of Russian bombings sent all the right kinds of signals to the parties involved: Russian Army has done its job. Now it’s time for Russian diplomacy to do theirs.
Putin reconfirmed this signal when he met on March 14th with both Russian FM Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu. The message was very strong and unmistakable: the army has done what was needed to stabilize Syria, now let’s pass the baton to our diplomats, who will deepen and solidify this success.
Video (ENG translation):
Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu 3/14/16
14. Last, but not least, by announcing partial withdrawal, Russia sent a message to Assad. The message is that Assad shouldn’t rest on laurels; that he can’t think that Russia was there to support him personally.
Russia sent a message, understood fully by all political and military groups in Syria and beyond: we won’t always be in Syria to bail out Assad. He needs to find his own stride for reconciliation. We are here to establish pre-conditions for political process by stabilizing the country and allowing the fair and equal voice to the people. What does this kind of message do? It puts the fire under Assad, making him agree to elections and national dialogue. It also restrains honest opposition from further armed clashes with government forces, making them see the light in the end of the tunnel – the light of possible peaceful resolution and political change in the interests of the country.
The Russian Syria withdrawal timing is genius:
All in all, Russia took away from the West and their Middle East vassals the possibility of escalation of anti-Assad rhetoric and, therefore, escalation of Syria conflict, leading to further destabilization of the country and region.
1. UK is now in a difficult position. Its attempt to build a new army and invade Syria through Libya now makes it look like a bully and invader in the eyes of own citizens.
2. Turkey was preparing its own invasion of Syria. Russian withdrawal announcement was a cold shower to Erdogan. Now US/NATO are forced to restrain Turkey from rash actions. In fact, the entire Russian op put a huge harness on Turkey’s ambitions to chop off a chunk of Syria, promised to him by US/Qatar and Saudis in late 2000s. It also dampened Erdogan’s ambition to resurrect Ottoman Khalifate. Read all about that in ESR7: TURKISH CONUNDRUM.
3. This move by Russia also restrains US actions in Syria, together with those of Saudis and Qatar. Now their hands are tied and they can’t continue trying to unseat Assad, otherwise they look like bullies. Of course, to make this happen Lavrov and Russia first made US admit that negotiations were the way to go, remove from the agenda ‘Assad must go’ mantra and compose a list of opposition forces ready to negotiate. Being tied into the negotiations framework makes it impossible for US to start invading Syria willy-nilly.
4. Besides that, Russia ingeniously timed Syria op, negotiations and withdrawal to the US presidential elections year. Obama and democrats desperately need to show some kind of international successes. This is why they suddenly began playing nice with Cuba, sat down with Iran last year and this is why they are ready to negotiate in Syria.
5. Another reason Russia announced partial withdrawal: sand storm season has begun, which makes flights difficult to impossible for a couple of months. Again – good timing.
6. US has recently gone into Syria, while Russia is already out. This again demonstrates that US continues scrambling to catch up to Russia. Read: Why Is Obama Scrambling to Catch Up to Putin? In ESR5 I said that Syria 2015-16 reminds me of WWII and 1944. It was in 1944 that US/UK suddenly saw the light and opened second front against Hitler, but only after they realized that USSR could take Berlin and liberate Europe all by themselves.
As I said, Putin is always several steps ahead. This is especially true after the devious US game in Ukraine.
Let me tell you something: the fact that Russia was not playing devious games in Ukraine was perceived by US and EU as a weakness and an opening to go in. As usual, they are unable to conceive that there are some who don’t play devious games not because they can’t, but because they are above it.
It’s not dangerous, but actually good – not for the US, but for Russia and the rest of the world – that US is stuck on the ground in yet another conflict in the Middle East. US troops are on the ground in Syria – Russian are not; US has already given a commitment they will fight ISIS, after they were shamed by Russia into doing so (as explained in ESR5). Good, let them finally live up to their promises and do something useful for a change!
Meanwhile, Russian reputation and clout in the Middle East is growing, while US is waning. US is playing a humiliating catch-up, while Russia continues leading.
In fact, I think that in part this Russian withdrawal has been timed so to demonstrate how slow and ill-equipped US and EU are for the modern strategic operations. Sort of: ‘see, we’ve accomplished everything we said we would, and are already out, while these dinosaurs are only getting in.’ The world isn’t blind and can see what’s going on.
When US showed to the whole world that it was absolutely unwilling to respect Russian interests, Russia and Putin began showing that in fact they are very capable of playing games, and much better than the West – if they want to.
Finally, here are two other good reasons for the timing of this withdrawal:
7. March 15th was one day before the 2nd anniversary of the Crimean referendum, which returned Crimea to Russia. This was part of the holiday present for March 16-19, the dates when Crimea and Sevastopol were officially accepted as two new subjects of the Russian Federation. Russia is clean and out of any conflicts on foreign soil – was the loud and clear message.
8. Now, being out of Syria, Russia can deal without any distractions with Ukraine and other problems close to home, such as Central Asia and Caucasus. This also includes Turkey and all of Black Sea.
(Read most recent related article: Breaking! Suspicious #Flydubai Boeing-737 Crash in Rostov-on-Don Raises Red Flags.)
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Are We About to Witness Another US Failure in the Middle East? ISIS Theatens to Blow Up Syria’s Strategic Dam
Are we about to witness yet another US failure in the Middle East?
ISIS holes up at Tabqa Dam to avoid airstrikes and to blackmail US if they attempt to take Raqqa!
Part of ISIS – Daesh has holed up at Tabqa, Syria’s strategically most important dam, where they use high value hostages to shield themselves from bombings. The dam, if breached, will flood and devastate large parts of eastern Syria, creating massive humanitarian disaster for this long-suffering country.
Remember my prediction in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER? US would do everything to avoid colliding with Russia in Syria. This prediction is now playing out.
Russia primarily covers Syria’s long Mediterranean coast, up to the Turkish border. It is along the coast where the capital Damascus, Assad government, most of the population and Russian base are located. Slowly but surely, the territory controlled by Assad is expanding, thanks to Russian air support and efforts of Syrian army.
Important Syria update for the readers of Earth Shift Reports!
The newest stats from Russian analysts are:
Assad army numbers: 200-250 thousand troops, including various local self-defence and international volunteer units.
All armed opposition, including ISIS, Al Nusra, Al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, etc., numbers 150,000. This number also includes what US insists is ‘moderate armed opposition.’ However, by all accounts, real bandits and militants change coloring depending on who pays more at any given moment, or to save their lives: today they are Al Nusra, and tomorrow – ‘moderate opposition.’ In reality, political opposition in Syria doesn’t have serious military muscle, while the majority of those who have aren’t moderate.
There is a small quantity of ‘moderate’ bands that decided to cooperate and are now sending intel to Russians and Syrian army as to the locations of ISIS/Al Nusra and others. Such turncoats, per Russian military, are one of the best sources of ground intel for their operations.
The above numbers don’t take into account the significant factor of the Kurds. The Kurds in all this have been a neutral force, concentrating on defending their own land, but not interfering in the general Assad vs. opposition fight. However, the Kurds have reached the autonomy agreement with Assad and now are gearing towards siding with him – as I predicted in SYRIA GAME CHANGER! This is a very hopeful development. However, Turkey/Erdogan are trying to sabotage it by insisting on excluding the Kurds from the Assad – opposition negotiations process.
For an in-depth look into all the above, read ESRs: SYRIA GAME CHANGER and TURKISH CONUNDRUM – links to both at the bottom of this article!
USA in Syria
When US realized they had to get in before the victory over ISIS was claimed without their participation, they concentrated on plans to capture Raqqa, the so-called capital of ISIS, located inland, in the eastern part of Syria, where Russian aviation and Syrian army haven’t reached yet.
It has to be noted that, according to Syrian government sources, Syrian army is now only 40 km away from Raqqa and is planning to take it soon. However, it is common knowledge that Syrian army is tired and is moving slower than Russians would like them to. At least they are moving, taking over town after town, under the Russian Airforce’s cover.
In the situation when Russians said they definitely would NOT put any troops on the ground, US announced that it would increase support for local resistance in order to capture Raqqa. The resistance they are talking about are non-ISIS militants and Syrian opposition. Per reports, they also began helping the Kurds, who really are the only well-organized force in the area, able to resist ISIS.
Most interestingly, US announced they would be sending American ground troops as well.
There is talk of 100,000 coalition troops, consisting of 10,000 American; the rest is supposedly from SA, Qatar and other USA’s Middle Eastern allies, although there is much doubt as to how they will fill the quota (I described the whole spread and doubts surrounding this issue in SYRIA GAME CHANGER). The whole thing resembles more of a PR noise than the real thing. This reminds me of how an animal or a bird, when threatened, puffs up fur or feathers to seem bigger.
The latest announcement from the US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter: US is sending one of its divisions with substantial Iraq experience. It appears the division he’s referring to had previously sustained heavy losses in Iraq. Is that what Carter means by experience?
So, the ‘Nobel Peace Prize Laureate’ Barack Obama is sending American troops to yet another country, but only after Russian Airforce and Syrian army did most of the work.
The irony isn’t lost on anyone. The whole thing reminds me – a painful similarity noted by many analysts – of 1944, when USA hastily opened the second front, but only after it became clear that Russians could easily roll through all of Europe, claiming single-handed WWII victory.
In this case, US is too late to the strategically important Mediterranean coast, where 70-80% of the population resides, where Assad government is located and where the ports and bases are. The coast is covered by S-400 and Russian Airforce.
On the other hand, Raqqa, located deep inside the country, controls Syrian oil fields. While Russian bombings destroyed a large number of ISIS oil fields, pipelines, oil depots and oil convoys to Turkey, there are some oil fields that still remain around Raqqa. US, together with Qatar and Saudis, will try to prevent the area from reverting to Assad government; they want to attempt establishing their control over these fields.
Additional reason for targeting Raqqa is to save face – after all, Raqqa is the supposed ‘capital’ of ISIL, even if it’s just in their warped imagination. This, again reminds me of WWII and 1945: couldn’t take Berlin back then – let’s at least take Raqqa, before Russians and Syrian army get there.
With this cowboy logic US may cause yet another disaster in the Middle East — as if Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, the creation of Al Qaeda and the very ISIS itself weren’t enough! The list can be expanded well beyond the Middle East – look at the disaster US interference created in Ukraine within just two short years! Everyone knows what US had done to Vietnam in the ’60s.
The list can be expanded far beyond these vivid examples, and I’m sure you all know dozens of other US-created disasters. The trail of direct and collateral damage follows USA wherever they show up.
ISIS has holed up at the dam not just to avoid bombings. This is a very smart, if morbid, blackmail. They threaten to blow up the dam and kill hostages, if Raqqa is taken. The result will be further devastation of Syria.
Let’s see if US has enough wisdom and military know-how to avoid yet another regional disaster of their making!
Judging by their past failures, don’t hold your breath… Unless they give up and ask Russians for help, but don’t hold your breath for that either as this again will mean losing face.
However, this situation does give Russia some negotiations advantage, and not only in Syria; in Ukraine and Caucasus as well.
Read about Syria, US, Russia, Turkey, Qatar, Saudis, Israel — all the games & players:
The upcoming ESRs:
will expand further on the convoluted and volatile situation in the interconnected regions of the Black Sea/ Balkans/ Eastern Europe/ Caucasus and the Middle East.
Stay tuned for the ESR release announcements!
Video with Tabqa Dam and Raqqa stats and geography:
Go to all EARTH SHIFT REPORTS!
Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions!
Putin’s video announcement: Turkey, who is aiding terrorists, has stabbed us in the back Rus/Eng. Link
MAP: Russian Su-24 crash scheme by Russian defense ministry:
Russian Defense Ministry demonstrates map of the Su-24M flight which ended in downing by Turkish F-16 jet. Russian MoD insists the jet didn’t violate Turkish airspace, while Ankara says the plane crossed into its territory for 17 seconds, leaked document indicates.
US-backed states have right to self defence, but not others- State Dept.
During the moment of Turkey shooting down the Russian Su-24, it flew at the 6km altitude, one kilometer away from Turkish border on the Syrian side. The plane was shot down by AMERICAN missiles from American-made F-16 employed by TURKISH army, in retaliation for Russia successfully bombing Syrian terrorists, whom they call ‘Turkmen,’ and who are financed, trained and openly supported by Turkey.
In the area in which the plane was shot down there is no peaceful population. It is the territory fully controlled by various armed thugs, fed by Turkey to create havoc on Syrian territory.
It has been known that Turkey actively recruits terrorists in the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, as well as in the Russian Chechnya and Dagestan, through a wide network of mosques and extremist Islamist schools they openly organize and finance. The exception are Chechnya and Dagestan on the Russian side, where recruitment is done more subtly.
As was seen on many videos, the plane crashed very quickly. Both pilots ejected. It was also visible on videos how Turkey-supported terrorists were shelling the pilots as they tried to land.
The info about the pilots is conflicting. There was a speculation that they may have been taken hostage. However, the latest sad news I’ve heard is that either one or both pilots are unfortunately dead. One of them may still be alive, being a hostage in the hands of the militants.
Let me begin by expressing my deepest condolences to Russia on the downing of the jet, and full support to the families of pilots.
You know how balanced and restrained I usually am in my message. You know that I always try to give the benefit of the doubt to everyone, including Turkey/Erdogan and US/Obama. But this is literally the line they should have never, ever crossed. This bodes big changes with very serious multi-level and multi-directional consequences for many parties worldwide. These changes will be complex and I will discuss them below.
First, let me say that Erdogan and Turkey will have hell to pay. This was a big mistake on Erdogan’s part. Russia put up with him despite his schizophrenic idiocy, for fear of destabilizing the region even further.
As we have discussed on many prior occasions, Russia as the Earth’s Great Balancer, always strives to maintain balance and status quo, until she is pushed too far.
USA/UK and the West play the opposite role – they (especially the Anglo-American countries) play the role of the global agitator and imbalancer. This is what they do to the rest of the world, while keeping their own countries in wonderful balance.
One of my readers asked me recently a question about millions of the Middle Eastern refugees streaming into Europe, among whom there are sleeper terrorists. What to expect, where is all this going, will Europe and this reader’s native Sweden become Muslim?
I’ve replied that the sooner EU understands that the only solution to this crisis, as well as all the crises that are happening in Europe now, is in getting closer to Russia and distancing itself from the US, the sooner the refugee crisis will stop. US had feared that EU, and especially Germany, were getting too close to Russia and this is why Ukraine coup was engineered, MH17 was blown up in eastern Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions were organized. Divide and conquer.
Keeping Europe artificially away from Russia, keeping it in fear and distrust – that’s the ultimate goal. This way they can continue to control Europe and prevent Russia and China from developing; this is how the world is kept in the perma-instability mode.
Incidentally, here is the blow away part of the intel I was saving for the upcoming piece about the Russian Airbus A321 catastrophe in Sinai, Egypt. But it seems more appropriate here. It is known that it was Turkey that organized the refugee crisis for the EU. It is also known that the USA was the mastermind of the refugee crisis. The whole thing was very well coordinated, down to maps, money, logistics and text messages which way to go and where to meet. I have proof and I will share it in a different piece.
So, to the question how to solve the refugee crisis: look at who benefits and who organised it. Then side with the only country that actually works to solve this crisis. This country would be Russia, for those who haven’t heard.
Instead, the likes of Merkel are making deals with the devil. She recently met with Erdogan and offered him a bribe to stop the flow of refugees: 3 bln euro to keep refugees in Turkey, plus a fast track into the EU (between us – this will never happen).
Below I will talk about USA and its unseemly role in the downing of the Russian Su-24 jet in Syria. You know I usually don’t talk about Obama, but this is one exception. Obama’s despicable role in this matter deserves a special mention.
I previously wrote about Erdogan trying to sit on multiple chairs at once. See ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER, where I explain Turkey/Erdogan’s game in detail. But this never works.
Putin at G20 in Turkey that just ended has presented a list of 40 countries, including G20 members, who are supporting terrorism. Certainly Turkey is very high on that list, but the diplomatic Putin has stopped short of accusing country’s leadership directly.
At the same time, Turkey is a very significant trade partner for Russia. Russia exports a lot of natural gas to Turkey, a lot of agricultural produce is imported by Russia from Turkey. Several million tourists from Russia go to Turkey for warm sea vacations annually. Russia and Turkey have visa free regime. Turkey was also projected to become a major gas distribution hub for southern Europe, if and when Turkish Stream is to be built.
Incidentally, Turkish Stream up till now was still a reality, contrary to what some have been saying. It is a real project and many parties, including Turkey, Russia, Italy, Greece, all of the Balkans, Hungary and Austia are eagerly awaiting it.
It stands to reason that the following parties would do anything to prevent Turkish Stream from happening, and these are: USA, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. USA and the other two have been working tirelessly to sabotage this project. The downing of the Russian jet is creating conditions for them to achieve their goal, if only temporarily: Turkish Stream may be conserved – at this time I don’t see it being abandoned altogether yet. The delay in building it is definitely in the cards.
Now, I want to emphasize that sabotaging Turkish Stream is one of the major goals for the USA, Qatar and Saudis in Turkey. But there are lots of others.
Another goal is not letting Turkey get closer to Russia and China, while distancing itself from its NATO and Anglo-American allies.
In 2014 Putin made huge strides and it seemed this was happening, as Turkish Stream deal was signed, visa free regime began, and various other trade agreements were executed. Erdogan began talking about joining Eurasian Union.
However, after a series of attempts on his life – which to me were rather a warning for him to toe the line than real attacks, terrorist acts, bloody protests and problems with elections, Erdogan changed his song. He began talking again about joining EU despite Turkey being snubbed for several decades. He again began being active in NATO and started taking a more and more actively militant stance against Syria and Assad.
It is evident that there has been tremendous pressure on Erdogan and Turkey to get back into the fold of NATO and Transatlantists.
At the very same time, Turkey has been playing double game with Russia. Saying friendly things to Putin’s face, Erdogan has been clandestinely recruiting Islamist militants behind Russia’s back and attempting to destabilize the post-Soviet space. The big goal and wet dream number 1 for Turkey has been the resurrection of its Ottoman Empire.
Of course Russia knew all about it – it’s pretty much common knowledge. But due to various geopolitical risks, Russians attempted to balance the situation, keeping Turkey reasonably in check.
The thing is that there really is no alternative to Erdogan that would keep the country in a semblance of a balance. Russia, with significant interests and visa-free regime, can’t afford the destabilization of Turkey.
It has to be mentioned that Kurds play a very significant and convoluted role in Turkey. On one hand, they have legitimate grievances and it is their right to want independence and being re-united with other Kurds from three other Middle Eastern countries. To remind, Kurds were artificially divided between four countries, with borders drawn by the British Empire during colonial era. Same happened to Armenians, who also became divided between several countries by the British Empire. Read all about it in SYRIA GAME CHANGER.
On another hand, it is known that in many situations Kurds are financed and controlled by the US. Exploiting their natural grievances, desire for equal rights and re-unification, USA systematically uses Kurds as a very clandestine and non-obvious weapon for US geopolitical gains in the Middle East. Therefore, Kurdish protests and riots in Turkey, manipulated since 2014 to get Erdogan back into the US/NATO fold, were helped from across the ocean.
Despite Erdogan’s idiotic and inconsistent behavior, Russia still supported him, since there was nothing else on the horizon. Russia could have easily helped Erdogan NOT win the latest elections, if they so desired. Erdogan won with great difficulty.
In view of the Russian jet’s downing and the killing of the two Russia pilots, I can predict that Erdogan will be in a more precarious situation than ever.
Read much more on Erdogan and Tukrey in the new EARTH SHIFT REPORT 7: TURKISH CONUNDRUM.
Big changes in Russia’s attitude towards Turkey are coming.
Russian Duma has been discussing since the Egypt crash certain security measures regarding Turkey. It has been proposed to stop air traffic to Turkey, in addition to Egypt. It was also proposed to revoke visa-free regime. This proposal didn’t pass the Duma, as most rejected such restrictions at the time. It’s almost inevitable that it will be passed now.
Egypt tourism indistry is already dead after Russians withdrew all tourism. Russian tourists constituted 70%, in some case up to 90%, of Egypt’s tourism revenues. Turkey’s tourism industry is about to suffer the same fate. For both of these countries tourism is extremeley important.
Meanwhile, Russian resorts in Sochi and Crimea are getting a boost. In this regard, note the ‘co-incidence’ of Ukraine’s terrorist act, as discussed in: Urgent! Ukraine Blows Up Power Lines, Leaving Crimea and 2.5 Million People Without Electricity. This terrorist act left the peninsula without power, sabotaging the growing Crimean tourism. Russia is also developing winter tourism in Siberia and the Far East.
I foresee other severe repercussions for Turkey, of economic, financial and political nature. If and when Russia withdraws any political support from Erdogan, he will likely not survive for too long in his post. By his erratic and duplicitous actions Erdogan managed NOT to generate any real allies and suporters. Remember Qaddafi? This kind of flip-flopping doesn’t do any good.
As I said, Russia tried at all cost to keep Turkey stable, overlooking some of Erdogan’s actions. Destabilization of Turkey is beneficial only to the US – this is why by default Russia had to do the opposite.
Now the situation may change. But I will predict preliminarily that Putin will still act very carefully, so not to destabilize the region further. The political outlook for Turkey will change gradually; when Putin is ready to act – no one will see it coming.
This is still the situation when Russia will have to choose between bad and very bad so not to destabilize the region even more.
Another thing that has to be mentioned is this: Turkey and its government simply cannot be trusted under any circumstances. This has always been the way of this region of the world for a long, long time. They will flip-flop and stab anyone in the back on moment’s notice, depending on who pays them more or who threatens them more effectively.
There is a saying in those parts: if someone extends a hand to you, bite off his arm. I know it sounds vicious and awful, but in light of the present events, I thought it was necessary to mention this.
It’s sad news for those countries that were hoping to get Russian gas first via South Stream and then via Turkish Stream. I still think the pipeline may happen one day, but it may not be through Turkey, after all.
The other variants include: it may still go through Bulgaria, but only after Bulgarian government stops being the complete US slave and the people of Bulgaria take their power back.
Or it may happen through Ukraine, but only after Ukraine is restored as a normal country. Most likely it won’t be called Ukraine for long. Also, in the near term, most likely it will either split into several pieces, or become a very, very loose confederation of practically independent, divergent regions.
Now, let’s talk about USA’s unseemly role in this whole situation.
I wrote in SYRIA GAME CHANGER that USA or NATO airforce under no circumstances would collide in any way with Russian airforce, for fear of world war. But we know that US is very, very peeved at Russia for Russia’s independent policy and for trying to maintain stability, when US works so incredibly hard at destabilizing the world.
What can US do to hurt Rusia? US can start a hybird war against Russia. It can employ all kinds of financial and economic attacks and sanctions, as it has been doing. It can also ignite color revolutions all over post-Soviet space. Finally, it can destroy Ukraine.
But Syria presents a great opportunity for USA to sick on Russia its vassals: the clueless Turkey is very convenient; all kinds of ‘very moderate’ terrorists US is financing – such as ISIL; Qatar and Saudis.
USA is the biggest supporter and CREATOR of terrorism in the world. USA is THE terrorist super-power of the world.
And now let’s see what Obama has said immediately after the shooting down by Turkey of the Russian Su-24 jet: ‘Turkey has the right to defend itself.’ Meanwhile the US command in Iraq says they can confirm that for 5 minutes Turkish army was warning the Russian jet to withdraw from the area, and only then they fired.
Let me get it straight: Turkish army was warning Russian jet to withdraw from the area across the border, in SYRIA, where Turkey has no right to be present or give commands, and where Russian pilots are present at the direct request and invitation of the Syrian government.
It is clear that this is an openly cynical and blatant collusion between USA and Turkey. I would not be surprised if it turns out that the ones pushing the trigger that killed Russian pilots and downed Su-24 were actually Americans, under the guise of the Turkish army. Let’s recall that USA and NATO have a lot of military bases in Turkey and this territory has always been their prised stronghold against Russia.
A word about Obama.
I said previously that I didn’t normally write about Obama is he was too predictable and un-interesting to me. This is one little exception.
Obama, this typical peace-loving ‘nobel peace prize winner,’ is one of the biggest war-mongers out there.
Obama is a puppet and a simpleton, who is a very effective mouth piece by virtue of being not very smart, but highly trainable. He’s a good actor though. He once fooled a lot of incredibly naive people by his ‘we are change’ slogan.
Having very little, if any, power from the start, after six years in office he looks like just an empty, soul-less shell. This happens to all American presidents whose daily job is to swindle the world and to lie to their own people. They are the ones who make pacts with the devil as a normal daily occurrence.
And now, a little preliminary prediction for the USA’s presidential elections 2016.
I am saving the full prediction for the US elections for 2016, when I’ll do a complete prediction about USA as part on a new Earth Shift Report. But I will give you a sneak peek, which is tied to the Russian jet downing in Syria.
Here is my prediction about US elections:
AS A RESULT OF ALL THE FAILURES AND EMBARRASSMENTS OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
Here are more predictions:
AS A RESULT OF THE ATTACK ON THE RUSSIAN JET, RUSSIA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY HER PRESENCE IN SYRIA AND SUPPORT OF ASSAD.
RUSSIA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY ANTI-TERRORIST OPERATIONS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS, AND STEP UP PROTECTION OF BORDERS OF THE POST-SOVIET SPACE, SQUEEZING USA, TURKEY AND RADICAL ISLAMIST INFLUENCES OUT OF THOSE AREAS GRADUALLY.
RUSSIA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY SUPPORT FOR THOSE ORGANIZATIONS, COUNTRIES AND FORCES THAT FIGHT ISIL, MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND OTHER ISLAMIST ORGANIZATIONS.
RUSSIA WILL INTENSIFY WORK DIRECTED AT SQUEEZING USA OUT OF VARIOUS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD. US HASN’T WON ANY SUPPORTERS IN RUSSIA WITH ITS HIDEOUS ATTITUDE, AND EVEN THOSE WHO WERE STILL RELATIVELY NEUTRAL, WOULD CHANGE THEIR STANCE.
NATO WILL HIT HARD TIMES AND THE RIFT IN NATO WILL CONTINUE GROWING, ALTHOUGH USA WILL DO EVERYTHING TO KEEP NATO AFLOAT, INCLUDING INTIMIDATION. BUT USA’S ACTIONS WILL ONLY HAVE TEMPORARY EFFECT. IT’S EARLY TO TALK ABOUT THE END OF NATO, BUT IT’S THE START OF THE END.
THE SO-CALLED NATO PRINCIPLES OF MUTUAL DEFENCE ARE DEAD. NO EU COUNTRY WILL SEND THEIR TROOPS TO DEFEND TURKEY AS REQUIRED BY THE NATO CHARTER, IF RUSSIA DECIDES TO TAKE RETALIATORY MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TURKEY.
Latest coverage from RT:
FOR MUCH MORE ON TURKEY & ERDOGAN READ NEW
EARTH SHIFT REPORT 7
READ ALL EARTH SHIFT REPORTS!
Read new! ESR6: UKRAINE – NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE?
ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER
ESR1 Reloaded: IS PUTIN PART OF NWO?
Video ESR4: ALIEN TECHNOLOGY & NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS
ESR3: OLIGARCH WARS
Putin and Russia’s diplomacy efforts
Russian air strikes of ISIL/Al Qaeda positions
The real reason for the surprise Russian cruise missile strike from Caspian Sea
Russia in Syria: analysis and overview
Turkey’s role in Syria
The international nature of ISIL, Al Qaeda and other extremist organizations
Risks to Russia and the entire region
The issue of Kurds
New Israel – Russia agreement – Why Israel likes Russian presence in Syria
How US, France, Turkey, Israel and NATO are being squeezed out of Syria
Syrian army and other forces resisting ISIL, Muslim Brotherhood and other rebel groups on the ground
What territory does Assad control?
ISIL (aka, ISIS or Daesh) financing: its sources revealed
Russian Tartus Naval Base and the new Russian military doctrine
Iran Gambit (what Iran, US, Russia, Israel and Syria want)
Israel’s role in Syria. Russia and Israel relations – You may be surprised!
PREDICTIONS: The future of the Middle East, multi-polar world and Russia’s role
Bonus: two interviews + 2 videos – Syria intel by Yakov Kedmi, ex-head of Israeli Nativ security services
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