Explosive Consequences of Putin-Erdogan St.Petersburg Meeting and Earth Shifting Changes it Foretells!
Addendum to ESR13: ERDOGAN’S WAR
EXPLOSIVE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 8/9/16 PUTIN-ERDOGAN MEETING IN ST. PETERSBURG
& THE EARTH SHIFTING CHANGES IT FORETELLS!
Putin and Erdogan met in St. Petersburg on August 9, 2016. The meeting followed the failed Turkish coup and an equally failed double attack by Ukraine on Crimea, which occurred between 5 and 7 of August. Erdogan made sure he emphasized that Russia was the first country he visited after surviving the coup. This is diplomatic speak to underline the special importance of said country.
Just prior to the meeting, Erdogan threatened to boot out US military from Turkish NATO bases and instead, let the Russians use them. A turnaround especially stunning, considering Turkey’s long-standing NATO membership and the 2015 story with Turkey shooting down the Russian Su24 and killing the Russian pilot.
Throughout ESR13, you have read all about these developments, complete with my secret intel, theories and revelations. When I released ESR13 on August 8 just before the Putin-Erdogan meeting, I also explained the staggeringly important role this meeting and Turkey-Russia negotiations would play in the ongoing Earth Shift (also see TRENDS & PREDICTIONS). Changes of great magnitude are afoot, and Erdogan-Putin meeting is one of the harbingers.
In this addendum I will tell you what really happened during the Erdogan-Putin meeting.
Erdogan repeatedly called Putin ‘esteemed Vladimir’ or ‘esteemed Russian President Putin,’ which is a very Middle Eastern way of offering an olive branch and underscoring how important the counterpart is to you. Putin, as far as I could tell, echoed that just once with ‘esteemed President Erdogan.’ No first name basis here.
In the report I predicted that Russia would be cautious with Turkey after the Su24 incident. The signal on the Turkish side was very clear: ‘we very much want to make up and be in good graces again.’ On the Russian side: ‘sure, we are all for it, and here are our immediate signs of good will, but other than that, we’ll see how you behave going forward, shall we?’
Before departing to Russia for the meeting, Erdogan made an announcement that much time was lost and that Turkey was eager to get back on track with two extremely important projects: Turkish Stream and Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.
The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (Turkish: Akkuyu Nükleer Enerji Santrali) is a nuclear power plant under construction at Akkuyu, in Büyükeceli, Mersin Province, Turkey. It will be the country’s first nuclear power plant. In May 2010, Russia and Turkey signed an agreement that a subsidiary of Rosatom — Akkuyu NGS Elektrik Uretim Corp. (APC: Akkuyu Project Company) — would build, own, and operate a power plant at Akkuyu comprising four 1,200 MW VVER units. Engineering and survey work started at the site in 2011. The construction of the first unit was to begin in 2016, with the four units put into service in 2022–25. In 2013, Russian nuclear construction company Atomstroyexport (ASE) and Turkish construction company Ozdogu signed the site preparation contract. The official launch ceremony took place in April 2015.
In ESR13 we discussed the mis-adventures of South Stream and Turkish Stream, along with reasons why it was so important for the US and Germany to sabotage them.
Akkuyu is a somewhat different story. Russians gave Turkey an amazing deal as part of the pre-2015 push to get Turkey on the Russian side and away from US influence. Part of the deal was that Russia would finance and build the power plant, with profits for its exploitation deferred for a number of years. The deal was an absolute windfall for Turkey, which would greatly reduce, or eliminate all-together the long-standing energy shortage basically for free. Then Turkish treacherous actions took place, including ISIS/Daesh help and the shooting down of Su24. Throughout the meeting, Erdogan kept referring to it as ‘the unfortunate event.’
Erdogan and other Turkish officials/businesspeople arriving to Russia all confirmed how eager they were to restart both Akkuyu, whose construction was supposed to begin in 2016, and Turkish Stream. Too much time has been lost, Erdogan kept repeating like a mantra.
In other words, they acted exactly as I predicted. Meanwhile, Russia also acted as I predicted: willingly, but cautiously.
Russians agreed to restart the Akkuyu project. A large part of the negotiations was behind the closed doors, to avoid various sabotage attempts from the same parties that organized Su24 downing and the Turkish coup. I am sure many details of various deals will never be announced before the deals actually materialize into reality. However, the general intel I have received is that Russians have renegotiated the earlier deals in a more beneficial way, since Turkey came back in a greatly weakened position.
Turkey is equally eager to get back on track with Turkish Stream. “We lost a lot of time” was repeated over and over in a somewhat contrite (amazing for a Muslim country) manner. Turkey underscored how much they wanted to get back to the lucrative international project Russians practically gifted to them in 2015.
However, that’s when a bucket of cold water was dumped on Turkey. Putin has re-affirmed that Russia remained committed to Turkish Stream, but only if and when Turkey obtains written legal guarantees from the EU that Europe wants Russian gas arriving via Turkish Stream and that EU cooperation is forthcoming.
Russia has also confirmed that they will restart Turkish Stream where it concerns Turkish internal gas supply only. In other words, for now the project is scaled down to the bilateral Russia-Turkey pipeline. Turkey, as I pointed out in previous ESRs, is suffering from energy shortages and high consumer energy prices. This includes electric power, as well as fuel for heating and cooking – many still use wood-burning and very polluting old-fashioned stoves, even in big centers such as Istanbul and Ankara. Therefore, it’s a necessary project, but not of the scale and scope that was initially intended. However, the same surveys and foundation used for Turkish pipe can be used later to expand it to continue to Europe, when the landscape changes. And it will change.
Additionally, it’s actually good to advertize officially the scaled down version of the project – this may, at least in part, discourage future attacks by the US. It’s a hybrid war and rule number 1 is: don’t advertize your moves to the enemy.
As I explained in ESR13 above, the sabotage of South Stream, and later of Turkish Stream, were necessary to delay the breakup of the predatory US Empire. South Stream – Turkish Stream would give a lot more sovereignty to Southern and Central Europe, leading to the weakening of the EU with subsequent breakup, and in turn, weakening US positions.
And another breaking news! As Turkey was proclaiming how eager they were to restart Turkish Stream, Bulgaria suddenly announced that they have again changed their minds and were now ready to host South Stream (read the entire story of Bulgaria’s flip-flop and South Stream sabotage in ESR13 and in ESR7: The battle for Eurasia! TURKISH CONUNDRUM). In other words, suddenly there is eager competition between countries to host Russian pipelines. Add to that Germany and Nord Stream 2. The healthy competition is very good, and it will push one of these projects through that much faster. I already told you in ESR13 which project it will be…
Here are two important questions for you to consider, which, once answered, will reveal the true meaning of this big geopolitical game. They’ll explain why ukro-nazi coup in Ukraine had to be executed, why Su24 had to be shot down and why Turkey, EU and Russia had to be kept as enemies:
1. Why is suddenly Bulgaria so brave and wants back into the Russian gas game, after having chickened out the moment Uncle Sam said ‘No’?
2. What will happen to Ukraine after all these projects go through and its old Soviet pipeline becomes obsolete?
1. Make no mistake: Bulgaria really wanted to host the very lucrative South Stream and its refusal to do so is due only to its absolute lack of any sovereignty. Bulgaria is suddenly so brave because this is election time in the US. At this time, US is distracted with the elections and the sell-out Bulgarian government thinks they could sneak in South Stream unnoticed. But just think how puppet and spineless it really is if a simple visit by John McCain had previously put a stop to South Stream. I think South Stream is still preferred, and I can see that Russians may be thinking along the same lines. But its continuation may only be possible when this puppet government is replaced with a very different, sovereignty-minded type of government. Due to the nature of Bulgaria as an extremely apathetic and inertia-ridden state, this will take a while.
2. After pipelines bypassing Ukraine are built, Ukraine will stop having as much value to the US and they’ll drop it as a hot potato, which in turn will cause the bandit regime of ukro-nazi Kiev junta and its pro-US oligarchic clan to implode. This will free up the genuine forces of liberation and Ukraine will make a swift turnaround towards its historic, political and economic ties with Russia. The problem with the territory we presently refer to as Ukraine is that it is an intrinsic part of the Russian World that was successfully infected with a virus of hatred towards everything Russian. Ukraine was targeted specifically because Russians never concealed how important Ukraine was to Russia. The US/West’s logic: If Ukraine is that important, then it is necessary to tear it away. This was why the 2014 Kiev coup was necessary from USA’s standpoint.
One of the major difficulties of dealing with Ukraine’s situation for Russia right now is the fact that the all-Russian/Soviet infrastructure was built as one system, spanning all ex-republics. Therefore, Russian gas pipeline to the EU ran through Ukraine, delivering at its height up to 70% of Russian gas to Europe. Now it’s down to 25% or so. This was a major pressure point against Russia throughout 2000s. You may remember the sudden gas stoppages as a result of Ukraine’s sabotage and stealing of European gas. The manipulation of Russia by the US and various anti-Russian interests through the Ukraine pipe reached staggering proportions, culminating in the 2014 coup.
Therefore, getting the pipe away from Ukraine is a blessing for all: Russia, EU and Ukraine, as well. Ukraine, or what’s left of it, will finally be left alone and allowed to rebuild itself (probably as several separate states and territories associated with Russia).
Therefore, one way or another, more pipelines bypassing Ukraine will be built no matter what. The only question is which countries will end up benefiting from the pipeline going through their territory. This will be determined by how quick on their feet and cooperative these countries are, plus, how smart and sovereign they are. As I said, I know which pipeline will be built first – and it’s all in the report!
In addition to all the above, Turkey continued asking for Russia to remove bans on tourism, air traffic, Turkish agricultural produce imports and Turkish construction companies working in Russia. Turkey made a killing in these areas and Russian money really supported Turkish economy, until Russia put the bans in place following the downing of the Su24.
Russians promised that they would be removing bans little by little. Read: depending on how you behave, we’ll see what we can do. For the time being the tourism ban has been removed and charter flights to Turkey may be resumed soon. However, the terrorist warning for Turkey is still in place and only the most brave dare to go there. Russians aren’t in a hurry to let construction and produce imports back in: they’ll give more time for domestic companies to strengthen and take bigger share of the market.
Unthinkable just recently: Turkey-Russia cooperation in Syria!
After the meeting with ‘esteemed Vladimir’ Erdogan announced that Turkey is inviting Russia to fight jointly against ISIS/Daesh in Syria. This is yet another move by Turkey to spite US and NATO, following earlier threats to boot US troops out of Turkish bases, and after a clash with Germany.
This is a staggering, unthinkable just recently announcement! After all, Turkey just recently helped ISIS/Al-Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood terrorists and Syria/Assad has been Erdogan/Turkey’s mortal enemy. Read all about that in ESR7: TURKISH CONUNDRUM.
We may soon hear announcements about certain Russia-Turkey joint missions. In my view, Russia will continue being cautious with involving Turkish militarily, until they are sure they can trust them. However, getting Turkey on Russia’s side in Syria and Black Sea vicinity – and on these new, more favorable to Russia conditions – is a huge, huge, HUGE win.
It’s also a HUGE humiliation and loss of face for the US. It has already, and it will continue leading to the weakening of the US and NATO.
We should expect Turkey cooperating with Russia in shutting down its border to Syrian terrorist supplies, oil, money and weapon smuggling. We can also expect better cooperation in securing Black Sea, such as not allowing certain US military ships through and cooperating in allowing faster passage for Russian ships through the straits. All these are still stop-gap measures. As I explained in the report, the issue of Black Sea and Straits has to be resolved in principle: all outsider military ships (read: US military ships, since no other outside country does that) have to be banned from entering. Only the military ships of countries bordering Black Sea should be allowed in Black Sea.
The extreme value of Black Sea, and therefore, the frantic activity around it, is due to one factor only: it is the soft and vulnerable underbelly of Russia. Therefore, surrounding Russia with unfriendly regimes has been US/UK strategy for hundreds of years. I explained how it all works in ESR8: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
The value and relative vulnerability of Crimea is derived directly from the same. The recent attack by Ukraine on Crimea is correlated with the rest of the events we’ve talked about. I am preparing a new Earth Shift Report, which will address the recent attacks on Crimea, why they happened and why now, who benefits, how it will impact Ukraine’s future, how US elections may be impacted, and whether Russia will sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine. We’ll also discuss the future of Crimea. Expect the new ESR: THE CRIMEA FACTOR in August 2016.
Keeping up with pretenses, the US State Dept announced that they were not bothered by Turkish cooperation with Russia at all, and that ‘US strategy in Syria didn’t change.’ However, that is not because US feels just fine about Turkish move. If it were up to them, Erdogan would be dead right this moment and pro-US Turkish generals would be in power. It’s simply because they are out of options. This is a serious defeat for the US Empire.
That said, US won’t leave Turkey alone. It will attempt more coups, terror acts, etc. Same goes for Russia. And remember, Russian elections are coming. Moreover, US elections have a direct bearing on all these events as well. How? Stay tuned for new Earth Shift Reports, in which all this will be revealed!
Why Putin chose to meet with Erdogan not in Moscow but in St. Petersburg
Perhaps very subtly, this is also a message. St. Petersburg was once founded by Peter the Great as then landlocked Russian Empire’s first serious international port in the Baltic Sea, designed for the new Western-prevalence era of 17th -20th centuries (in prior millennium, the ancient Rus peoples, with their multiple centers of influence, of course, had various ports on different continents). Peter called the St. Pete port: ‘a window to Europe.’
The new strategy of the US/West has been to shut and bolt down this window to Western Europe, creating a New Iron Curtain from Baltic to Black Sea via a cordon of unfriendly to Russia regimes. It was a partial success, with Romania, 3 ex-Soviet Baltic mini-states and Poland joining the cordon. A snag happened in the middle of the Baltic-Black Sea Iron Curtain, when Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary wisely decided to stay neutral to kind-of-friendly to Russia. It also turned out that converting Belarus into anti-Russia didn’t work no matter what. But Ukraine became the clincher. After 2004 color revolution, only a partial success was achieved. In 2014 the success was complete with a total Ukraine subversion. Turkey and Bulgaria were also supposed to be part of the Iron Curtain. Bulgaria turned reluctantly, only with a partial success, while Turkey refused to be easy.
The grand total of this entire scheme is that the Iron Curtain isn’t working as well as the Transatlantic masters want it to work. Moreover, it is so shaky it may just topple any moment at one’s slight touch. The most important factor in the unreliability of this flimsy Iron Curtain is that Russia/Putin refused to play by West’s rules and began creating their own rules, thus changing the reality around them and beginning to fulfill Russia’s true destiny as the Great Global Balancer and Stabilizer.
Therefore, we see a signal, which, it appears, few have understood: Turkish president Erdogan, who was supposed to be responsible for locking down the Black Sea end of the Iron Curtain, meets Putin in his native city of St. Petersburg, the place where Russia’s biggest Baltic Sea ports are, often called ‘Russia’s window to Europe.’ In the more modern terms: Nord Stream 2 is to be laid through the bottom of Baltic Sea; Turkish Stream – through Black Sea.
Consequently, the recipient is known and the message is: ‘The New Iron Curtain has failed.’
P.S. Why following Erdogan’s visit Putin met with Armenian president
On August 10, one day after the breakthrough meeting with Erdogan, Vladimir Putin received president of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan. As I also said in the above report, on August 8, one day before Erdogan, Putin met in Azerbaijan with Iranian and Azeri presidents.
As usual, nothing happens by accident in the global chess game. Armenia and Turkey are mortal enemies. So are Iran and Turkey. Azerbaijan and Armenia, unfortunately, are also enemies, with continuing armed conflicts. All these mutual animosities are used by outside forces to manipulate various countries against each other and to destabilize the region. By contrast, Russia’s goal as the Global Balancer, is to stabilize and harmonize the region and the whole planet.
By meeting with Armenian leader right after all others, the relative closeness of the EAEU member Armenia to Russia is underscored. A signal is sent that Russia’s deals with Turkey or Azerbaijan do not mean Russia has forgotten her ally Armenia. At the same time, by meeting neck to neck with leaders of all these rival countries, Putin sends a signal of cooperation and unification to all of them.
‘It’s much better to cooperate and get along’ is Russia’s message. Enough with the archaic ‘divide and conquer,’ used by the US Empire. A better way, based on cooperation and mutually beneficial, peaceful relations, is shown by Russia. The world is tired of wars and people aren’t blind. They can see that Russia is the only country that can unite – as opposed to divide – various countries.
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As we know, Greece is in technical default on its 1.5 bln euro payment to the IMF/EU creditors. Experts tell us that this could snowball, with Greece going into default on all its debt, which is over $350 bln. If Greece defaults on its entire debt obligation, it will send huge shocks through the world financial system and will seriously undermine Eurozone and Germany.
This is why Greece’s negotiation position isn’t that hopeless. They have aces up their sleeve. EU can’t afford Greece’s total default, neither can it really afford Grexit. US cannot afford Greek default either, because it can signal the beginning of the end of the whole dollar-based empire.
The national referendum announced by the ruling Syriza party on the future of Greece is to take place on July 5th. Greek PM Tsipras urges people to vote ‘no’ to creditor demands, in order to improve his negotiating position.
My prediction: The Greek referendum will deliver the majority NO vote to austerity and creditor demands.
The fact that creditors didn’t give an extension to Greece so people could vote, instead squeezing the country on June 30th, is very telling. I wonder, what happened to the supposed ‘democracy’ the West is so proud of? How democratic is it to sabotage the Greek national referendum – a true voice of the people?
First, it’s clear double standards: Greece, a member of the EU, is treated as an unloved, unwanted child by the EU and IMF. IMF, of course, represents the interests of the US and EU, where US rules supreme.
At the same time, IMF’s Christine Lagarde tells us that Ukraine, not a member of the EU, will continue receiving IMF loan tranches, even if it defaults on sovereign debt it owes Russia. This is in direct violation of the IMF laws.
So, the West is now in violation of both self-professed cornerstones of its society: democracy and law.
Do you know how empires die? That’s how – they implode on themselves, confused and in denial. We are observing a slow disintegration of the Western (US-EU) empire. This is the time when only the blind and the unscrupulous don’t see that the king is naked.
Second, and most importantly, the difference in position on Ukraine and Greece by the IMF and EU is clearly geopolitical in nature and has absolutely nothing to do with economy. The common denominator in both is the country’s relationship with Russia.
The present Kiev junta in Ukraine is supported because it’s at loggerheads with Russia, yelling and screaming on every corner that Russia attacked them. No one believes that, but this narrative is diligently parroted by the Western MSM, nevertheless.
This has to be expected, if whistleblower journalists from countries such as Ukraine and Germany come out with revelations that they are given the text of what to say in their reports – a text written at the US embassy – and told not to deviate from it. A well-known Kiev journalist Oles’ Buzina was recently killed after the publicly revealed that his publication was forced to print false information based on the US embassy in Kiev script. German whistleblower journalists who have revealed that the entire journalism profession in Germany is sold-out to the US, doing only USA’s bidding, are forced to go into hiding because of threats.
Greece is shunned and squeezed because it dares to have good relations with Russia, speak up against anti-Russian sanctions and participate in Turkish Stream project.
I talked about the geopolitics and economics of Turkish Stream in my previous episode: Macedonia Coup Attempt – War Against Russia & China (LadaRayLive 12).
GREEK DEFAULT AND GREXIT PREDICTIONS
You know my prediction about Greece: it will exit the EU by 2017. In my original prediction, which you can find in Secret Connection: Russian Gas to Turkey-Greek Election-EU Breakup (LadaRayLive 6) and my FT articles, I said that the reason it will take some time is because the relationship with the EU is so complex that it will take some time to untangle.
We already see that the energy is moving in the direction of Grexit. But it won’t happen yet. Greece and EU will be delaying it for now. The most important mark for Grexit will be the completion of Turkish Stream. Grexit will happen close to that date – this is the date to watch!
Of course, due to the importance of Turkish Stream for so many reasons, it will be sabotaged by the US, EU and Germany. It will be a difficult going, as I said in the previous episode. But it will be done.
From this perspective, it’s more beneficial for Greece and all other parties involved, including Russia, if Greece agrees to certain conditions by creditors and stays low for now. Direct confrontation with the EU will only make them sabotage Turkish Stream more forcefully.
For now, Greek debt will have to be a compromise, where EU will give some and Greece will, too. There is indication that that’s what Greek PM Tsipras is doing.
To conclude: will eventual Grexit cause a domino effect all over the EU? Yes, it would. However, it won’t be fast. I see it as a slow and gradual process, taking years and lots of negotiations.
For the next few years, the make-or-break moments of reckoning to watch are: completion of Nord Stream-2, Turkish Stream, discontinuing of gas transit to EU via Ukraine, and a change of power in Ukraine, accompanied with gradual weakening of the US. The timeline for all this is 2016-2019, with most events taking place between 2017-2019. US weakening will continue after 2019.
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P.S. I’ll be taking a few days off this weekend to meditate and relax (I’ll be checking in for emails and comments). Have a great weekend, all! See you next week!
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On video’s image: Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2015 (SPIEF 2015) in St. Petersburg, Russia, June 19, 2015
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A Latvian politician and member of Europarliament has told me that he recalls how several years ago any session of the EU-Russia Europarliament Commission would be packed because of the overwhelming interest in doing business with Russia. Everyone understood: that’s where the opportunity was. At the same time, sessions of the US-EU Commission would barely have a few people attending. Those days several years ago now seem to the EU like another lifetime. Events in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions changed perceptions and put a visible wedge between Russia and EU – a setback used by the US to continue pushing EU to accept the increase in its military presence, its LNG shale gas and its secret Transatlantic Trade Agreement.
I know what US apologists both sides of the Atlantic will say: it’s the EU people who demand our increased military presence, shale gas and Transatlantic Trade Agreement. I suppose the EU people also demand that NSA wiretap their presidents and business elites, along with every citizen. I suppose the EU people also demand to be robbed blind.
Seemingly, US can celebrate a victory. Seemingly, they have achieved their goals. However, per my 2014 predictions, this victory will be short-lived, followed by a huge reversal.
The top event of last week was the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, yet what happened there went almost unnoticed in the manipulated Western media, busy covering up the new French NSA spying scandal with a fresh dollop of Russia-bashing. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the moment the news that NSA spied on three French presidents broke up, French papers filled with anti-Russian propaganda, blaming Russia for not observing the Minsk peace agreements. Similar thing happened in Germany, where the public is still reeling from last year’s massive NSA spying scandal. Obviously, the news filled with bad Russia and bad Putin, their convenient boogeyman, are meant to distract from the real news.
It should now be clear beyond the shadow of a doubt who controls ALL of the world’s media, except some news outlets in Russia, China and a few other countries. The fact that French and German media immediately jumped to protect their real Transatlantic employer once the scandal against such employer broke out – speaks volumes. The prime directive of the Western MSM is to divert the sheeple’s attention and pull the wool over their eyes every time their puppeteer is in trouble.
What happened in St. Pete was sensational, and therefore, it should have been the stuff of front pages. Instead, it was shyly relegated to the back pages, or avoided altogether.
But at the same time as US and Brussels continued selling their naive populace the stale story of Russia’s isolation – and Russian aggression – a virtual fight over who would become a bigger and better partner for Russian gas transit was taking place in St. Petersburg.
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In light of what’s happening in Greece, what’s especially interesting is this: Greek PM Tsipras neglected his scheduled meeting with EU leaders, in which he was supposed to negotiate his country’s crucial pre-default debt restructuring. Instead, he chose to come to St. Pete, where he signed a $2 bln joint venture for building the Greek leg of Turkish Stream to southeastern Europe.
Nord Stream-2: Analysis and Prediction
Less noticed and very under-the-wraps was another mega-deal: potentially even bigger than Turkish Stream. During the St. Petersburg Forum Germany and Russia agreed to build Nord Stream-2, to deliver gas across the bottom of the Baltic Sea directly to Germany, for further distribution throughout the EU. Nord Stream-1 consisted of two branches and cost 8.5 bln euro. Nord Stream-2 will add two more branches, for a total of four, and will cost 9.9 bln euro.
Nord Stream – Rusian gas goes directly to Germany via Baltic Sea
The new pipeline will go on top of the existing Nord Stream. This means that, due to the same footprint, Nord Stream-2 won’t need to go through a very grueling and lengthy approval process with Euro Commission and deal with objections by all countries bordering the Baltic Sea. With German discipline and profit motivation, expect Nord Stream-2 to be built in record time.
Therefore, while Germany is making all kinds of public anti-Russian noises, it’s quietly making serious strides to fortify and expand business with Russia. However, make no mistake! Russian gas transit to the EU is as much in the realm of politics and geopolitics, as in the realm of business. I will illustrate that below.
Nord Stream-2 capacity will rival the current Ukraine pipeline capacity. Russia already announced that the aging Ukraine pipeline will be eventually phased out due to the political instability and inflexible position of the Ukraine government. In short, Russia won’t be held hostage to the whims of Kiev. Nord Stream-2 agreement means Germany is making a decisive move to take away gas transit business from Ukraine.
This led some to speculate that Germany facilitated the 2014 coup in Kiev on purpose: to create an impossible situation for the Russian gas transit through Ukraine, thus making Russian gas transit business its own. I won’t categorically agree or disagree with this opinion, and here is why. There is some logic to it. Germany and other strong EU economies were always worried about the insecure Ukraine gas route. Taking steps to ensure one’s country’s energy security are natural and expected. Still, at least in part, Germany is not initiating but rather responding to various threats, acting to secure gas supply route and quantities for itself and its close allies in northern and central Europe. Germany, of all countries, is able to use its considerable European pull to secure a fast construction of the new pipeline – and it’s doing it.
Is Germany making big anti-Russian noises to appease and fool the US, while behind the scenes making deals with Russia? Here is what I see: I do think Germany is continuing clumsy attempts to sit on two chairs, playing both Russia and US, in the hopes of wiggling its way out of unfavorable agreements with the US, while keeping the door to Russian business semi-open with one foot. It’s some fancy acrobatics, to be sure, and it does look desperate. Germany and German allies – in other words, the strongest northern and central EU economies – see the writing on the wall and they don’t want to be caught in the upcoming Ukraine/US fallout. They are also rushing to secure Russian gas agreements while they still can.
Turkish Stream Prediction
It’ll be somewhat harder for Turkey, Greece and Italy to push the Turkish Stream construction through. Their pull isn’t as hefty as Germany’s and the pressure on them will be significant both from the US and EU.
But my confident prediction is this: unlike the botched South Stream project, which relied on the weak key transiter, Bulgaria, the Turkish Stream project will be accomplished successfully. The reason is that Turkey is much stronger than Bulgaria as a key transiter. Greece (key transiter 2) will be fine as well, as long as it remains steadfast. This will be a tall order, but Greeks are fighters and they can do it.
The Myth of the United EU and NATO: Geopolitical and Economic Rivalries Explosion
What many are missing is that Germany and Greece are acting here as direct rivals. Germany wants to keep all of Russian gas under its control, in order to then distribute it to all of the EU, thus keeping its control over Eurozone. Meantime, for Greece their participation in the Turkish Stream and association with Russia is a terrific negotiation ploy and additional leverage in their fight for independence against the EU, IMF and German dictate. To top it off, Russian partnership is a lifesaver for the fledgling Greek economy.
As such, Germany sees Greek revolt as a challenge to their EU power and hegemony. From this it’s easily understood that Germany and Brussels would try to undermine and sabotage Greece and other countries who are participating in Turkish Stream.
US will also try to sabotage it for both geopolitical reasons and for their own economic reasons. US wants to sell its shale gas to the EU. Its dream is to push Russia out as the primary gas supplier to the EU, taking Russia’s place and, therefore, binding the EU to itself not just militarily and economically, but also energy-wise.
Consequently, the fight between Greece and EU/Germany we are presently observing is much more than a fight for Greece’s debt restructuring. It’s also beyond the projected Grexit. It’s about distribution of Russian gas and future control of European energy security.
When Bulgaria’s puppet government foolishly refused to allow South Stream through its territory, loosing potential billions in future profits, Turkish Stream was born. It will go through the bottom of the Black Sea, using Russian waters, a small stretch of international waters and Turkish waters. Then, it will go through the northwestern-most part of Turkish territory, with branch-outs to supply large parts of Turkey with Russian gas. Why is it important that it only goes through the northwestern part of Turkey? This is the quietest and most prosperous part of Turkey. The east and south are restive and volatile, with Kurdish and Syria-related unrest.
But Turkey isn’t a member of the EU. Turkish Stream will get to the border with Greece at which point Greece will take over the pipeline for further distribution to other EU countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan sign the Turkish Stream deal
As we see, Greece/Turkey and Germany are now in direct competition for the exceedingly lucrative Russian gas venture. Therefore, the fight between them is also the fight for future control and profits.
Putin’s Gambit: the all-around win for Russia
We spoke on many prior occasions about how Putin works. Sometimes, it appears he doesn’t respond directly to various threats and adversarial actions by the US, Kiev junta and EU, instead, he takes his time and acts asymmetrically, when he is ready. And every time Russia acts, it’s an unexpected and pretty crushing move. This is why they call Putin the Grand Chess Master.
Nord Stream-2 partner is the No. 1 German energy giant E.On, as well as Shell (Dutch-British) and other German companies, such as OMV and Wintershall. It is understood that such companies wouldn’t commit to Nord Stream-2 without securing a serious backing of the German government. It is also a given that Nord Stream-2 will be pushed through by Germany in record time. In fact, it will be built faster than Turkish Stream.
This puts fire under Turkey. The thing is that after the Turkish Stream deal was signed by Erdogan, he imagined himself in the driver seat. He began looking for more preferences, playing on the Crimean Tartar controversy and delaying the approval for the engineering survey of the pipeline route. Immediately after the Nord Stream-2 deal was signed, the Italian engineering survey vessel, which was sitting in the Bulgarian port of Burgas waiting for Turkey’s permission to enter the Black Sea for six months, was finally allowed to start work. Erdogan also changed his tack on a number of other issues.
Recall what I once said before: Erdogan and Turkey are attempting to play their own game in the Middle East and southeastern Europe, not always successfully and not always nicely. However, on balance Turkey is still a strong and convenient ally for the Turkish Stream and various other projects, for a variety of reasons – from geopolitical, to psychological and economic. For one, Erdogan is pissed at the US, EU and NATO, and two, he wants gasification of his country, whose archaic coal-based system is in desperate need of replacement with clean modern energy.
Therefore, Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream are in direct competition. This is excellent, as it will finally balance the situation with Russian gas supply to the EU, which has become precariously imbalanced after Ukraine, and sometimes Belarus, began playing blackmail games. The result was that Ukraine endangered EU’s energy security and Russia’s energy livelihood. And that’s just not done.
There is an ‘opinion’ of ‘the couch potato experts’ that Russia won’t have enough gas to fill both pipelines.
However, having reserve capacity on hand is actually the point! Two pipelines will be filled with gas as needed, reserve capacity used as necessary. The constant competition between the two will not allow either party to attempt what Ukraine has done for years: blackmail Russia either economically or geopolitically, while keeping EU gas customers hostage.
The realisation of the plan of the competing pipelines will put an end to the American Dream of cutting Russian gas from Europe. Will US try to stop the construction? Undoubtedly. My prediction: because of well-chosen allies, and unlike with South Stream, they will fail.
The deadline for the complete turn off of the Ukraine gas transit system is 2019. Until then, EU and Germany will have to continue paying for Ukrainian gas in order to ensure Ukraine doesn’t turn off the vent.
Alexander Medvedev, Gasprom Deputy Chairman said: “After the current gas transit agreement with Ukraine expires, there will be no new contract, nor extension of the existing contract, under any circumstances. Due to the economic, political, investment and technological risks, there will be no more Ukraine gas transit, not even if sun and moon switch places in the sky.”
China: Deeper reason for the stampede to secure Russian gas
In addition to the Turkish Stream and Nord Stream rivalry, for the EU and Germany there is another, more important consideration.
Germany must act now, before Russian gas gets redirected to China and Asia via the Power of Siberia pipeline. Let’s recall my 2014 predictions: once it happens, it will be too late and EU will begin experiencing gas shortages. Shortages can be avoided if Europe acts now to secure multi-year gas commitments.
Therefore, Russia is building a fully balanced and diversified Eurasian gas supply system, and Chinese counterweight plays a big part in it.
Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream will eventually take all gas transit business away from Ukraine. It means that regardless of how the power in Ukraine changes in the following 2-3 years (and it will), Ukraine will only be able to buy gas for itself – at market prices. It won’t be able to profit from the exclusive gas transiter status.
Poor, naive Ukrainians; while they were yelling and screaming on Kiev maidan that Russia was bad, shrewd Europeans nodded politely and did what they had to do to provide for their energy security. This eventually will render Ukraine unnecessary for either US or EU, and, as I predicted, it will simply be abandoned. Too bad the cost will be so great for the people… I wonder, will Ukrainians ever learn?
This effectively means that US will lose interest in Ukraine and drop it like a hot potato. Recall my timeline for the mega-changes in Ukraine: 2016-18.
US LNG Shale Gas
But what about the US and its LNG shale gas, you ask? Judging by the St. Petersburg deals, Europeans aren’t holding their breath for it.
Let’s be clear: US shale gas is yet another bubble. This, awfully harmful to the environment bubble, will burst, just like so many before it.
Where is China?
What went completely unnoticed in the media was the presence of China at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Too bad, because this is actually the country everyone should have been watching in the first place. Chinese press wrote after the event that China and Russia fortified their future-oriented, long-term strategic partnership. Russia is the key partner in China’s New Silk Road project, which will unite in one economic space China, Russia/Eurasian Union, most of Asia and EU.
For more listen to my interview: Putin’s Disappearance and the New Silk Road ~ The Plane Truth
I spoke many times about the need to reunify all of Eurasia. This is one continent. The artificial division on Europe and Asia has to come to an end. Through trade and energy, this is what Russia and China are working on.
While Germany, Turkey and Greece trip all over themselves to be first to sign gas transit agreements with Russia, China is continuing its patient long-term expansion. Unlike the expansions of the US and EU, it targets to cooperatively unite, not divide. Patience is one thing Chinese have lots of. Pragmatic wisdom and vision is another.
Europeans could learn a lot from both Russians and Chinese.
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