URGENT! Israel Responsible for Downing of Russian Il-20 Jet in Syria? Lada Ray’s Major Analysis & Predictions!
I wasn’t planning this post, but it became a must, due to the major breaking news! This is a big report, which I wrote as a direct response to the developing situation in Syria and Israel! This is my early analysis/predictions/overview, plus urgent alert, all rolled into one!
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As of this writing, the situation is still developing, and there will be more info coming out soon, which I may not know at this point. I’ll summarize for you in short everything I know, and give you my initial opinion and predictions.
In short, and based on the first data, Israel warned Russian airforce of its impending attack on what they call ‘Iranian’ forces in Syria just ONE minute before the strike, in direct violation of the intelligence sharing agreement. At least hours of warning are customarily given. That was the time when Israel knew very well that Russian jets were returning from sorties to land on their base. Moreover, Israeli command knew exactly that the Russian Il-20, with 15 people on board, was landing at that very moment.
Video – ENG subs:
Four Israeli jets delivered a guided bomb attack against Syrian facilities in Latakia province. What’s important is that Israeli jets, in case of such attacks, come in from the Mediterranean and fall short of entering Syrian territory. In this specific case, after the bombing, the Israeli jet(s) deliberately hid behind the Russian Il-20, which was coming into the landing, with 15 Russian military people on board. You can see on the video thumbnail above what and how it happened!
When Syrian S-200 guided anti-aircraft missile was fired, it hit the Russian Il-20, the aircraft 10 times bigger than the Israeli F-16, giving out a much larger reflective surface signature. Shoigu and Russian MoD conclude that Israeli pilots knew exactly what would happen and deliberately set up the Russian jet.
Map of Israeli attack 9/17/18:
Russian Il-20 jet is the image in the lower center-right
This tragedy constitutes one of the biggest, of not the biggest, Russian army’s one time loss throughout the entire Syrian campaign.
Here’s the clincher! This provocation comes directly after three major Earth Shifting events!
1 Russia – China Mass drills, Vostok-2018, where the might of the Russian army and the coordination with the Chinese army were demonstrated. These drills completely rattled the US and Dark State. See my previous FT posts.
2 The Eastern Forum in Vladivostok, where major strides were made for the cooperation in Asia, and a major step was made to ditch the dollar! Participants: Russia, China, Japan, S. Korea and Mongolia. Huge problem for the US/West/Dark State, whose power is slipping away! See my previous FT posts.
3 Putin and Erdogan met yesterday to develop a strategy for Idlib and N. Syria. The compromise was reached, and it did NOT include the US!
All these factors, when put together, tell us one thing: US Dark State – globalist neocon/neolib tandem is set to send a warning to Russia and retaliate against all the moves I described above.
You’ll recall that Turkey’s downing of the Russian Su in Syria a few years back happened also after major Russian victories and in order to put a rift between the budding alliance between Russia and Turkey (Read ESR5, ESR7 and ESR13).
This provocation is in the same vein. It is a set up, designed to rattle and broadside Russia in Syria, to derail the fragile agreements between Russia and Israel, and to see if Russia would act rashly in response. If Russia acts rashly, those dark forces who are behind this provocation will attempt to start a big invasion of Syria and a new world war.
So far Putin and Russia managed to keep the situation in Syria under control. But we all know who itches to bomb and to legitimize their presence in Syria: USA, UK and France, plus Israel, for its own purposes. These are the countries who are itching to start a full-scale invasion of Syria.
Russia managed to have a decent rapport with Israel, despite differences, until now. This was necessary and continues being necessary to keep the fragile balance in the region, which otherwise would plunge into a full-scale war. It is clear what forces want that war, and therefore, these are the forces who are behind this Israeli provocation. I want to emphasize that such Dark State forces exist in the US and Israel, but there are also forces that want better relations with Russia in Israel. How much US and American Zionist lobby leaned on Israel — we’ll know soon, or never.
The important thing is that what happened is against Israeli interests in the region, as I wrote many times on Patreon and above linked ESRs. Israel needs Russia on its good side, this is a fact of life, and this provocation basically annuls everything the previous agreements affirmed.
Therefore, it is beneficial to those forces who want to accomplish three things: 1. Plunge the region and the world into hot World War III; 2. Destroy any cooperation agreements achieved previously, in order to invade Syria; 3. Weaken Russia and Russia’s control of Syria. I want to remind everyone that ONLY RUSSIA (plus Iran) is in Syria legitimately, by the invitation of the Syrian government. Everyone else are classified as aggressors and invaders.
Russia will have to respond, as already stated by Shoigu.
Let’s recall that after the downing of the Russian SU and killing of the Russian pilot, Turkey paid a heavy price, including ban on Turkish flights over Syria. Russia also brought into Syria S-400s, which it refrained from doing before that, by Turkish request. S-400s Russia installed are capable of covering any Turkish jets on takeoff at their own bases, rendering any Turkish airforce activity near Syria obsolete.
But Turkey also paid a heavy political and economic price. After the downing, Russia downgraded relations with Turkey, canceled all civilian flights to Turkey and stopped tourism. Turkish citizens were deported from Russia, Turkish exports banned. This sent Turkish economy into a tailspin.
It was my prediction (came true) that the attempted military coup and attempted Erdogan’s assassination (see ESR13) were the result of the weakened position of Erdogan after Russia’s multi-step retaliation. It was only Putin’s stellar master-chess moves that saved Erdogan, and then restored Turkey-Russia relations – all in ESR13.
And remember, only one person died that time! It is 15 this time. The stakes are much higher!
There are some initial proposals how to respond to this new provocation from Israel. They range from bombing Israeli airports to severing diplomatic relations.
I can tell you that Putin and Shoigu will NOT act rashly, but they’ll think it through very well, as always.
I do think Russia and Israel are interested in decent working relations to keep a modicum of stability in the region. But there are forces in Israel and beyond, who want war. Therefore, like in the case of Turkey, Putin will act in such a way that the intentions of the dark forces will be neutralized and better yet, turned around!
Oh, don’t get me wrong, there will be hell to pay. Israel will have to pay a price politically and economically, and no question, militarily! What will it be? We’ll find out soon, after Russians do their strategizing to see what benefits Russia most and what doesn’t!
I also have to point out that Israel announced that there will be no response to what happened, because of Jewish holidays. The real reason: they have no idea what to say and how to react. They are frantically searching for the right way to respond and they are buying time. It has come to my attention that Russian MSM tried to get comments from Israeli experts and political figures, and they are all hiding out, unwilling to go on record. This speaks volumes as to the chaos happening now in Israel.
There will be hell to pay one way or another. Heads will definitely roll. The ‘mistake’ which was in fact a provocation, will cause chock waves.
At this point, I can tell you one thing that WILL happen for sure, as one of Russia’s first steps. This is purely my prediction; nothing like that has been announced yet.
Russia didn’t supply S-300s and especially S-400s, to Syrian army at the persistent requests of Israel, who maintained that this would disrupt the fragile balance of power in the region and put Israeli jets in danger on their own territory. This is why Syrian army is still using the older S-200s, with a much smaller range.
Russia also agreed to keep Iran at bay — I explained everything in great deatail in ESR20 and in my recent articles on Patreon. In exchange for Russian cooperation, Israel agreed to curb its appetites regarding Syria and exchange intel. This incident may sever all previous agreements. One of the things that may happen is that Russia will stop curbing Iran’s ambitions for developing bases next to Israel! And that will be a HUGE problem; I’d say, this may end up in disaster for Israel.
There is practically no doubt that after what happened, Russia will supply S-300s and possibly also S-400s to Syrian army in central/southern Syria, in order to cover the skies over Syria down to Israeli bases. This effectively will shut down Syrian airspace for Israeli jets, like it previously did for Turkish jets. The Lebanese airspace may be included in the no-fly zone.
Forgot to mention one thing! US/UK also are itching to retailate against the fact that Russia completely exposed their plan to create another false flag chemical attack in Idlib. Not to mention, Russia exposing the Skripal hoax AND the latest Russian data on the MH-17 downing by Ukraine. All this helped trigger this retaliation! See my previous FT posts on all these events!
In conclusion, I also will predict that this time Russia will be forced to be much tougher on the proposed US/UK missile strike against Syria, with possible participation of Germany and France. US/UK are trying to drag more countries into this, because they need to be all tied by blood. The situation is again extremely dangerous, as I wrote recently on Patreon!
Will the strike happen to help UK Govt and May to distract the public from the failed Brexit and to help Trump/neocons win midterm elections?
My view at this point, their underpinning, which through false flags and provocations they’ve been trying to build for months, is falling apart at the seems. Russia is very expertly destroying all of their false flag constructs: Skripals, Idlib chemical attack, MH-17 downing. All these lies are being exposed one by one.
They may still do it, because they have been building the case for it for months and can’t backtrack.
This is why this new Israeli provocation was desprately needed! I again have to refer to the infamous downing of the Russian SU-24 by Turkey – a very strong resonance indeed!
Will they succeed? If they still go ahead with the missile attack against Syria, despite all of their false flag constructs falling apart, who knows what may happen. By then Syrian army may be well-equipped with S-400s. And it’s anyone’s guess what those SYRIAN missiles might hit in response… A US or UK aircraft… A US carrier… An Israeli airport… Who knows?
A very good time to supply those S-400s, I think.
We don’t want and don’t need war, and I am sure Putin and his team will find the right way out of this situation. But if all the initial data checks out, the response, and a strong one, is needed!
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More to my previous posts from today and lately!
The Earth Shift is underway and the old structures are crumbling, while new are emerging. Visible cracks are showing in the US, EU and NATO, as Erdogan, the key NATO ally in the region, continues leaning towards Russia, and away from the US/EU. I had predicted and spoken about it on many occasions since 2014, including in ESR5, ESR7, and of course in ESR13!
You’ll remember my detailed description of the sequence of events in EARTH SHIFT REPORT 13: ERDOGAN’S WAR. It was Putin who saved Erdogan from Gaddafi’s fate during the coup organized by the CIA. Erdogan has big scores to settle with the US and EU.
Again, read my lips and just watch what happens in the next several years!
And one more thing: I wrote and wrote about the Turkish shift. As I see, the West has completely missed the whole thing! Just like they will miss the EARTH SHIFT!
Inidentally, I have also hinted and written many times about Israel’s shift — but no one seems to hear my predictions, the only CORRECT and AHEAD OF THE TIMES PREDICTIONS out there. People prefer loud sensationalism, even if it turns out wrong. That’s why so many people are victims — they don’t see, don’t hear, even when something stares them in the face. They don’t notice when someone is trying to tell them something valuable. And how many such predictions I’d made in the past!
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VIDEO – Iran parades Russian S-300 missile defence systems on Army Day:
You may recall my two past articles: the 2015 piece, Mystery Revealed: What frightened the USS Donald Cook so much in the Black Sea? and from early 2014, Striking Geopolitical Similarities: Georgian War – Beijing2008 and Ukraine – Sochi2014.
In the latter, I explained the long-cherished US plan to attack Iran and how Russia since mid-2000s was quietly protecting Iran by all means possible. The reason Russia had to continuously run interference was due to the fact that US invasion of Iran was set in stone after Iraq and Afghanistan, and it was clear that Iran would not be unable to withstand a massive simultaneous attack by US from sea and air. In the former, I expanded on how Russians arranged the protection of Iran via the elimination of US base and military hardware in Georgia, and how certain apt demos of Russian electronic warfare capabilities for the US Navy and airforce cooled off Pentagon and Washington hotheads.
Russia couldn’t watch over Iran forever. Iran, a sovereign country, needed to be given the means of protecting itself. Only Russian technology can effectively shield anyone against a US airstrike. Therefore, in mid-2000s the deal for the supply of Russian S-300 missile defence systems was signed.
After the S-300 agreement materialized, the West immediately expanded anti-Iran sanctions to include such defence weapons, which at the time prevented Russia from fulfilling the contract. It was understandable: US needed Iran defenceless against their attack. At the time Medvedev was Russian president and he tried to work with the West, therefore agreeing to the S-300 deal freeze. Medvedev’s decision was met with criticism in both Russia and Iran. That said, I can tell you with confidence that if US did attack Iran Russia would have supplied the S-300 and anything else necessary. But at the time, other, quiet and even more convincing means were found for preventing the US aggression. Read above-linked articles where I describe what happened during Georgian mini-war 2008 and how Russian electronic jamming devices sent clear warnings to US Navy that an attack on Iran could be their last.
To get the full picture of the advanced electronic warfare (4D warfare, in my terminology) and newest secret Russian technology, watch: EARTH SHIFT VIDEO REPORT 4: ALIEN TECHNOLOGY & NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS.
It has to be noted that S-300 is the older, shorter range model that covers 200-300 km radius. S-400 is the newer, longer range system; the latest model is S-500, and yet more advanced systems are in the works.
S-400 at Moscow Victory Day Parade May 9, 2010
After US/NATO began flexing their muscles in the Baltics and Poland, and after the Kiev ukro-nazi coup, Russia finally placed S-400 systems in Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave sandwiched between today’s Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic shore. Since 2015, after Turkey shot down Russian jet, Russia now uses S-400 in Syria to protect its military.
S-400 arriving to Syria
There is no weapon in existence that can counter Russian S-class missile defence systems. Speaking of their effectiveness and impact: US and NATO complain that the Kaliningrad S-400s cover large parts of Central, Northern and Eastern Europe, thus severely limiting the ability of NATO/US airforce to fly there. Similarly US/NATO and Turkey complain that S-400s in Syria cover half of Turkey and parts of the Middle East, including NATO military bases.
Syria: S-400 installed on Khmeimim airbase – coverage of the Middle East
This means that anyone flying over Syria needs Russian permission. It also means that any US/NATO, Saudi or Turkish jets can be shot down on takeoff on their territory (more about that in ESR5: Syria Game Changer and ESR7: Turkish Conundrum).
Needless to say, S-400 in Syria and Kaliningrad act as convincing ambassadors of peace and the most effective reminder to all parties not to try anything funny.
S-400 Triumf being purchased by India
You may recall the 2014 joke that Putin played master chess, while Obama played marbles. I said back then that after Crimea and Donbass fiascos, when turning Ukraine into a long-term anti-Russia failed, US began employing smarter people… but not smart enough. Seemingly a win for Obama Administration, the 2015 Iran deal culminating in lifting of Iran sanctions in exchange for Iran abandoning its uranium enrichment program is, in fact, yet another hidden fail.
Here is why.
Last year, Washington paraded as one of its successes the fact that an agreement with Iran was reached, which capped Iran’s ability to enrich uranium sufficiently in order to produce nuclear weapons. In exchange, old Iran sanctions and oil embargo were lifted and Iran regained its ability to freely sell its oil on world markets.
Russia, US and EU were united in their eager desire to sign such agreement with Iran, but for very different reasons. USA: 1. to show a rare success of Obama’s international policies before the end of his term, 2. to dump more oil on the market that would lower world oil price and, therefore, hurt Russian economy. EU: 1. wanted cheap Iranian oil, 2. wanted to make sure Iran couldn’t build a nuclear weapon, 3. not a bad idea to hurt Russian economy.
Many scratched their heads as to what was in it for Russia. After all, Iranian oil flooding the market would lower oil prices and Russian oil exports would suffer. Oil prices did plunge dramatically, thus indeed hurting Russian economy.
But in reality, the oil price plunge was little related to Iran. I wrote about that in detail in Earth Shift Reports ESR5: Syria Game Changer and ESR7: Turkish Conundrum. What did impact the price of oil were several factors: natural boom/bust cycle and related lower demand by China, Saudis/OPEC playing quota games to get rid of competitors, US mass manipulation of oil futures, and ISIS dumping cheap oil through Turkey.
The embargo has been lifted; however, Iran is still not making an impact on oil prices one way or the other. I’ll tell you why below.
The geopolitical games being played are very complex and the intended result isn’t always obvious. Sometimes it becomes obvious to an average person years later, and sometimes, never.
Behind the scenes, Russia and Iran made a deal, according to which Iran would sell most of its excess oil to Russia. In exchange Russia would supply to Iran the coveted S-300 missile systems, which Iran has been requesting for years.
Why would Russia need more oil, you ask? Isn’t there already more than enough?
This deal ensures Iranian oil is taken off the market, thus eliminating its impact on the global price of oil. Because of this deal it is clear that Iranian oil simply could not impact the price of oil. Therefore, ONLY targeted manipulation of oil futures by the US, including Soros/ various hedge funds, and of course, the super-secret USA’s market crash team, all working together, could plunge the price of oil by that much. The target of this manipulation is very well known: it’s Russia, Russia and RUSSIA.
It was a stated goal of Obama and his administration to weaken and destroy Russia through turning Ukraine into anti-Russia and anti-Russian sanctions. They imagined that such catastrophic events would be followed by all-Russia discontent, culminating in national uprising and color revolution -all designed to remove Putin. This, in turn, would lead to Russia’s break up into small, easy to divide and conquer, pieces. This was the original Stratfor plan (read ESR8).
The fact that US, through Kerry or Kissinger, is suddenly again starting to want to talk cooperation with Russia is only because of:
1. Russian success in Syria and the most effective peacemakers I’ve described: S-400 in Kaliningrad and Syria.
2. Putin and Lavrov’s effective diplomacy and the fact that former US allies in the Middle East prefer to talk to Putin rather that Obama.
3. How embarrassing for the US, Obama and his cronies: despite continuing attempts to vilify Putin he is still the world’s most popular leader, while people in the US and EU would prefer Putin as their president.
If this is not the ultimate fiasco and indictment for ‘we are change’ Obama, Kerry, Nuland, Pentagon, Soros, Stratfor/George Friedman, McCain, and their cronies, I don’t know what is! Incidentally, let’s not forget to include on the list Bill and Hillary Clinton, together with their hidden handlers.
(Don’t forget to read about Stratfor/Friedman’s plan for the destruction of Russia and Ukraine in Earth Shift Report 8: Black Sea Gambit!)
But what happens next to the Iranian oil? It goes through Russia to China. As I said, the deal is complex. China buys Iranian oil through Russia, Russia supplies S-300 to Iran. The deal also includes Russia’s very profitable nuclear cooperation with Iran due to Iran’s uranium enrichment cap agreed upon in 2015, which makes Russia a necessary partner. In other words, Iran needs Russia to get enough fuel for its nuclear stations and medical needs, to recycle fuel, and more. In turn, China pays Russia for oil via investments and national currency swaps. Such a neat Eurasian triangle based on mutual interests, I’d say.
Russia supplied S-300 to Iran as soon as the West lifted anti-Iran sanctions. But wait! After the old sanctions were lifted Iran immediately slapped new anti-US sanctions on two thousand American products, including Caca-Cola, American movies, etc. US, in turn, slapped some fresh sanctions on Iran!
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As we’ve discussed in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 in Syria, there is hell for Turkey to pay for the downing of the Russian jet. NATO, EU and even US have been trying very hard to distance themselves from Turkey, insisting it’s all between Russia and the ‘unpredictable’ Erdogan.
As predicted in the same article, neither NATO nor EU would move a muscle to protect Turkey. In fact, various Western politicians and generals are floating an opinion that Turkey should be expelled from NATO.
I can tell you this won’t happen. It’s certainly not realistic for as long as NATO exists in its current state. US and NATO have too many bases in Turkey and they won’t just abandon this primest of the prime spot, allowing them to meddle with Russia. Considering that soon there will be fewer and fewer places where US and NATO will be welcome, they will try with all their might to hang on to what they can.
Therefore, I do not see the expulsion of Turkey from NATO at this time – sooner NATO will stop to exist. For now, all that is being said are very careful warnings for Erdogan, sort of like ‘down, boy!’
In fact, Erdogan’s actions are noted to become more and more erratic and unpredictable. He has just destroyed in one fell swoop a decade of building up a very lucrative cooperation with Russia. There is danger he may be trying to generate a conflict with Russia in order to invoke an international clause regulating the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, allowing Turkey to close them down, thus shutting down Russia in Black Sea. Worst case scenario is looming and Russia needs to be prepared for it.
Although Turkey has very little leeway in closing down the straits, it may be attempting an extraordinary provocation to achieve this goal. It’s hard to imagine Turkey acting alone in that.
In one of my earlier articles about Turkey and its role in the region, I predicted that Turkey, by virtue of occupying a very strategic position that essentially bridges Europe and Middle East, serving as a gate into Asia and Black Sea, is allowed by world powers to be strong enough to perform the gatekeeper role, but will never be allowed to get too strong. It will be immediately put in its place, should that happen. This is what we are seeing happen. Turkey is also a very long-standing bone of contention between Russia and the West. Read more in Is Erdogan Trying to Recreate Ottoman Empire?
The issue of the Black Sea straits is very important. As a result of World War I they were supposed to go to Russia, together with what is now Istanbul (Constantinople). This never happened. Do you know why? I’ll explain all about it in the upcoming ESR7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT. This important, albeit volitile, issue may be raised again by Russia.
To add to my NATO and Russia predictions in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet, I can also tell you that Turkey’s actions have weakened NATO and strengthened Russian position in the region.
As I’ve also pointed out in the same article written within a couple of hours after the news of Su-24 downing, the rift between NATO countries will continue intensifying. It’s already evident in France’s Hollande trying to solidify a coalition with Russia. There is a power struggle within NATO between US, who says that there will only be one coalition – theirs, and France, who have already signed a cooperation agreement with Russia. Certainly, France is weak compared to the power of the US. However, due to the force majeure circumstances of the Paris bombings, France’s claim takes precedence under international law. US is being pushed aside in Syria, as France has a legitimate reason to retaliate for Paris attacks.
However, I am skeptical as to how far this cooperation between France and Russia will be allowed to go. Undoubtedly, Hollande will try, but he is also kept on an invisible short leash, as various attacks in France show.
Also, technically, since France is a part of NATO, Russia can’t share that much intel, for fear that it will be again leaked to the US, Turkey and ISIL.
Putin has practically head-on accused USA of aiding Turkey in the downing of the Russian jet. Putin said that USA had signed an agreement with Russia on behalf of all NATO countries, according to which Russia has advised USA/NATO where Russian jets would be at any given moment. This made Turkey, a NATO member, fully aware of all the movements of the Russian jets.
By now it’s clear to the entire world that Turkey was well prepared for this hit. The Russian bomber, which isn’t designed to deflect attacks of fighter jets, was simply ambushed. Turkish fighter was waiting for the Russians, then it maneuvered in such a way as to strike from behind. As Putin so aptly put it, ‘it was a knife strike in Russia’s back.’
It appears that neither NATO nor USA ever thought the whole truth about the attack would come out so quickly. Certainly, a massive miscalculation on their part took place here. As I said in the above-referenced article, instead of being intimidated and leaving Syria, Russia is set for a much deeper and stronger participation in Syria and the Middle East in general.
Turkey is NATO/USA’s tool and weapon in the Middle East. But, in addition Turkey has its own interests and plans. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also have own interests and plans, in addition to being West’s tools in the region.
I received this question from several people: is Erdogan mad; has power gone to his head? Or is he absolutely rational, acting according to his well-thought-out plan? Lots of passionate debates are now taking place among experts. Most people are confused as to how to interpret his seemingly irrational actions.
I’ll give you the entire spread – Turkey (Erdogan)/ Black Sea/ Crimea/ Odessa/ Russia/ NATO/ Balkans/ Pridnestrovie/ Moldova/ Caucasus, and explain the deep connections between all that in my upcoming Earth Shift Report 7 – THE BATTLE FOR EURASIA: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
Military: the preliminary military response to Turkey’s actions has already taken place. Russia established a no-fly zone over the Turkey-Syria border. No movement between Turkish territory and Syria is possible any more, therefore no supply of weapons, rotation of terrorists or ISIL oil truck movement takes place between Syria and Turkey.
Read all about Syria, Russia and Israel; how ISIL/Al Nusra/Muslim Brotherhood are financed, including oil revenues, artifact sales and Turkey/Qatar/Saudi/US role in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER.
It is known that those terrorists that shot at Russian pilots from the ground, killing one, and those who shot down Russian rescue helicopter and killed a marine, were not Turkmen rebels as was initially announced by Turkey, but ‘grey wolves.’ This is an ultra-nationalist Turkish organization with direct links to Erdogan and the ruling party. The man who actually pulled the trigger was a Turkish national and son of a mayor of a Turkish city.
The body of the Russian colonel who piloted the ill-fated Su-24, had surfaced in Ankara, Turkey, where Turkish terrorists brought it to demonstrate their ‘victory’ over the defenceless pilot. Following Russia’s damand, Turkey gave the body back to Russia.
Within one day after the jet’s downing, Russia flew the advanced S-400 systems to its military base in Syria. This is an extraordinary step Russia had refrained from taking before due to pleas from states such as Jordan, Lebanon and Israel, fearing the destabilization of the region. S-400 covers the territory of 400 kilometers in radius and therefore can shoot down Turkish jets on takeoff deep inside Turkish territory. There is no weapon in existence, including radio-electronic interference, that can intercept or stop missiles fired by this advanced Russian system.
S-400 is more advanced than S-300 system that Russia has now begun delivering to Iran. Russia has also developed S-500, the most advanced in the series. Watch ESR4: ALIEN TECHNOLOGY AND NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS for many other Russian cutting-edge designs.
Black Sea Fleet Flagship, Cruiser Moskva, has moved to Syria and is covering Russian airstrikes and bases from the sea.
Russia also made a decision to build two complete military-naval bases in Syria, instead of the initially proposed single base in Tartus.
Essentially, no one can now fly in Syria without the permission of the Russian forces.
This is one of the reasons France is trying to get into some sort of coalition with Russia – there is no other way for them to fly in Syria in order to retaliate on Paris attacks, and Hollande must at least pretend to do so in order to look good for his constituents at home. Russia always looks for cooperation whenever possible. But in truth, as I said in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER and other referenced pieces, Russians really don’t need others: they just need everyone getting out of the way, so they can do their job.
As predicted, Russia was just given by the Turkish actions a very legitimate opportunity to intensify presence in the Middle East and to become the leading player in the region.
Economic sanctions: Putin announced the preliminary economic sanctions package against Turkey. Visa-free regime is suspended as of 1/1/2016. Russia stops selling tours to Turkey and the last of Russian tourists are returning home. This is a big blow. Turkey is visited annually by 3-5 million Russians and they leave there $10 bln annually. Russians are by far the biggest tourism market for Turks, and tourism constitutes 25% of Turkish economy.
Turkish business in Russia is banned and all Turkish business licenses revoked. Turkish nationals are denied visas and expelled. This is also a huge blow, hitting not only Turkish companies but wider into the Muslim-oriented network of mafias. Turkish business has been huge since Yeltsin’s times. I will talk about its incredibly deep penetration and powerful lobby in Russia in the upcoming ESR7.
Russian companies are prohibited from hiring Turkish workers. Charter flights to Turkey are banned starting 1/1/2016, while regular flights are still on, pending further notice. There is a partial ban on Turkish produce and goods. The list will be finalised soon. This is just the start. Turkey is only in the beginning of the process of paying the price – much more to come.
Russian gas supplies to Turkey and Turkish/Blue Stream project are a different and complicated story, which we’ll also discuss in ESR7.
Meanwhile, Turkish oligarchs are starting to incur losses due to Russian sanctions.
By now it has become apparent (as I hinted in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet) that the terrorist act of blowing up Ukrainian power lines to Crimea was organized by Turkey in close cooperation with Poroshenko and Kiev government, using Crimean Tartar extremist organization Medjlis and ukro-nazis. The connection between these parties is much deeper than many imagine (read Urgent! Ukraine Blows Up Power Lines, Leaving Crimea and 2.5 Million People Without Electricity). I have some new revealing intel.
Last but not least, there is a fight breaking out between Erdogan and the Turkish military. A military coup may be possible.
All the above and its profound implications will de discussed in detail in Earth Shift Report 7: BLACK SEA GAMBIT.
China weighs in
China has sent its aircraft carrier to Syria in support of Russian forces. The story of this Soviet-made Chinese aircraft carrier – the country’s only – is remarkable and provocative in its own right. The very presence of this particular vessel sends a number of serious messages to Russia, NATO, US and even Ukraine. Very subtly, in its usual way, China is hinting on something. What is it? Stay tuned for ESR7, where all will be revealed.
Putin in Paris
Along with many other heads of state, Vladimir Putin is in Paris for the UN Climate Conference. While the pretext is global warming (and we won’t discuss it here), the conference is being used by heads of major states to discuss what’s really on everyone’s mind: Syria, Turkey, ISIL, Russian jet and Crimea.
Multiple times and through all imaginable channels in the past two days, Turkey’s Erdogan had attempted to secure a telephone conversation with Putin, but was rebuffed. In Paris, Erdogan again attempted to meet with Putin on the sidelines, but was again refused.
Putin met with Chinese President, which happens very frequently lately. Last meeting was two weeks ago.
Putin also met with Barack Obama and spoke with him for 30 minutes. Note that this meeting takes place after Putin has practically accused US of aiding terrorists along with Turkey. This is their second contact in the past two weeks, after over a year of mutual silence. Obama finally uttered ‘regret’ about the downing of the Russian jet. Does this signal a further distancing of USA/NATO from Turkey, or is it just for show?
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Erdogan, Davutoglu & Ottoman Empire
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As a direct consequence of the US and EU push for the lift of the oil embargo and sanctions in exchange for Iran giving up its nuclear program (well, at least partially), Putin has lifted ban on delivery of S-300 missile systems to Iran and authorized the delivery. The contract between Russia and Iran was signed over 5 years ago, but the US and EU imposed anti-Iran sanctions and broad embargo, preventing the delivery at the time. Russian FM Lavrov announced that with the ban lift, there are no more obstacles to the contract completion.
It has to be noted that S-300 isn’t Russia’s most advanced missile defence system. S-400 is a more sophisticated one, and the newest cutting-edge designs are coming up as well. Iran faces dangers in the region and it needs the means to defend itself, while S-300 is a purely defensive system posing no threat, said the Russian leadership.
This new development is happening at the same time the US and EU say they won’t give up on their missile system in Europe, despite the fact that hypothetical aggressor against which this system is supposedly directed – Iran – is giving up its nuclear program. It’s common knowledge that in reality, US missile defence system in Europe is directed against Russia, which both US and NATO have denied for years.
It has to be noted that the Yemen bombings have also influenced the Russian S-300 delivery decision.
In addition to Iran’s need to defend itself from potential aggression by Saudis, US and/or Israel, Russia’s move is part of a complex geopolitical chess game in which S-300 is used as leverage. One of the messages Russia sends to the US and EU is: ‘you make your move – we make ours.’
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