Below is a video interview with expert, Oleg Chagin, Director of the Institute of Social Anthropo-genesis (in Russian). To summarize, he talks about a dire situation in Ukrainian army. Some in the army still do believe the Kiev propaganda that Russia is the aggressor against whom poor Ukraine has been fighting for two hard years. But many don’t. Meanwhile, the army as a whole has been demoralized to the core. It has been lowered to the role of a terrorist organization, bombing civilians and country’s own citizens, to boot. Some in the army, perhaps without realizing it, are in fact sabotaging orders of their command.
Chagin goes on to say that it’s impossible to divide Russia from Ukraine and vice versa. The tragedy is that many of the officers would have friends and comrades on the other side, aka, in DNR and LNR, or in Russia. They don’t want to fight against those they consider their closest people. He says that 40% of Ukraine army officers have not passed the lie detector test and are now subject to dismissal.
Yes, you’ve heard me right: Ukraine army now administers a lie detector test to all its officers. The main question asked is – what do you think? – whether Russia is the enemy and whether they would fight Russia with all their might.
Can you imagine the tragedy of these officers, who once signed up to protect their country, and who are now made to prop up a rotten foreign occupation regime, who have families they need to feed, who may not have any other profession on their hands and who, when eventually the war crimes tribunal is on, may be branded war criminals. From this perspective, those who get dismissed now because they’ve failed a lie detector test will likely be better off in the long run, when this junta is kaput.
Chagin also mentions the fact anyone with any sense has understood since 2014: if the Russian Army were indeed involved in Donbass, if Russia really did want to take over Ukraine, the whole thing would have been over in 1-2 weeks tops. By the end of this term, Russian Army would have been in Lvov (western Ukraine). To date, Donbass confrontation has lasted 2 years.
Chagin believes that the army is at the end of its tether and that it could turn against the Kiev regime at any moment.
Олег Чагин – военный эксперт, директор НИИ социального антропогенеза – о деморализации и деградации армии Украины, которую опустили о уровня совершения терактов.
I can add to this that IF Russian army indeed entered Ukraine, it would have been greeted as liberators in most of it; moreover, at the sight of Russian Army most of Ukrainian army would gladly change sides, the way it happened in Crimea.
In 2014, the very beginning of Ukraine events, I’d talked about the fact that Ukraine army would have a hard time taking orders from this Kiev junta, that allegiance to Russia and Russian tradition would take precedence. In Crimea, this is exactly what happened. Elsewhere in Donbass and Ukraine it was a mixed bag, but overall, there is evidence that this is the case in increasing numbers. However, frankly, I was hoping both officers and soldiers of Ukraine army would have more courage, dignity and honor than they’d shown so far. The fact that they meekly allowed themselves to be used as cannon fodder and terrorists within their own country just shows how much Ukraine has degraded in the past 25 years of ‘nezalezhnist’ (Ukr: independence).
Despite degradation, there are still plenty of those who refuse to fight, try to defect, or simply quietly sabotage orders. All of the above is extremely dangerous because the army is watched at all times by national guard and the right sector, who are given orders to shoot to kill, should they notice anything suspicious. Many cases are known when soldiers or whole companies tried to defect, but were killed en route.
When Crimea returned to Russia, only 2,000 out of 20,000 Ukrainian troops stationed there chose to return to Ukraine. They were all allowed to leave with their weapons. These 2,000 were relocated to Nikolaev. It is turning out that, having compared what it was like to remain in Ukraine, these officers are now defecting and trickling back to Crimea. Many of them have semi-legal status and no jobs, but they still prefer Crimea to continuing to serve in Ukraine.
A very similar situation is happening with Ukraine police. Many old police hands also didn’t pass the lie detector test (meaning: deep down they don’t really consider Russia an enemy and western Ukraine fascist Bandera their hero). A large percentage of experienced policemen were dismissed from the force. Some of them try to make their way to DNR/LNR, others to Crimea; yet others try to migrate to other parts of continental Russia. Some stay in Ukraine, and you can imagine how passionately all these people, skilled with weapons, wish Russian Army did roll into Ukraine; how much they are all itching to act!
My opinion is that, while the army is every bit as demoralized and fed up, it lacks organization and leadership to do something as big as mutiny. However, the longer this situation lasts, the more of the army this regime will lose. If not mutiny per se, there will be mass defection, which eventually may turn into all-Ukraine civil war of everyone against everyone, simply because there will be no place for these people in society, where there are fewer and fewer jobs. Most likely, 2017 will be the year of a turn around in Ukraine – and it won’t be pretty.