VENEZUELA New Syria? Country & Maduro Calibrations & Predictions! (Excerpt from My New Book, GEOPOLITICAL & GEO-ECONOMIC QUANTUM CALIBRATIONS)
Due to extremely volatile and unpredictable situation in and around Venezuela, I am posting an excerpt from my new book, with telling calibrations and predictions! Read it below, after important EBOOK & PAPERBACK UPDATE!
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President Maduro (left) and self-appointed ‘alternative president’ Guaido (right)
Jan 25, 2019
John (comment from Lada Ray Patreon): Any hope for Venezuela to avoid becoming the next Syria?
Lada Ray @LadaTweets: Another Washington regime change in the making? Very serious situation in Venezuela! Maduro government breaks diplomatic relations with US, gives US diplomats 72 hours to leave! Washington threatens invasion!
Calibrations for Venezuela (whole country)
QC 40 – GUILT
CHI 190 – YEARNING/STRIVING
Exceedingly low QC, coupled with pretty high CHI denotes upheaval and revolution. But Chi isn’t high enough for the meaningful change in the form of a violent revolution to take place. This volatile combo denotes upheaval and trying to resolve it somehow, but not quite succeeding. Another push, in any direction – to the left or right is needed.
Russia and China, plus other countries, such as Italy, Bolivia and Cuba are trying to support Venezuela. EU isn’t sure what to do. Some pro-US neighbors, such as Columbia, are helping in the regime change. The world is almost equally divided on Venezuela’s future, and this is partially good, because there is enough opposition to US intervention. Bad news! This may become a frozen, long-festering conflict, much like in Ukraine, with no way out in either direction.
But let’s look at the sitting president’s calibrations, and see how that helps clarify the situation.
Leader: President Nicolás Maduro
QC 200 – COURAGE
CHI 190 – YEARNING/STRIVING
He keeps his courage, and he is trying very hard. But he is no Chavez. And – he is no Assad either, who calibrates MUCH higher, and this is the reason the Syria outcome is different. My above diagnosis stands: This is a long-festering situation, which will take years to resolve. More Ukraine than Syria.
QC 180 – PRIDE
CHI 180 – PRIDE
Surprisingly high QC and CHI considering the problems in the country! Armies in Latin America have historically and notoriously been an agent of regime change, often siding with the US against local government. In this specific situation, Maduro’s government is saying that the army is on his side. This in itself is a huge win for Maduro, as the armies in these countries are notoriously fickle and prone to corruption by foreign interests.
Having army on his side will all but ensure that the US regime change won’t succeed, at least in the short run. Longer term, the US will continue buying up politicians, army and influencers. It’ll continue squeezing Venezuela.
I can tell you also that if Russia decides to get involved in Venezuela, like in Syria albeit on a smaller scale, there could be a solution on the military/security level. But it’ll be hard for Venezuela to get out of the financial and economic clutches of the US. Unfortunately, that’s where Venezuela’s main weakness is.
There is another interesting possibility: China getting closely involved, in addition to Russia. That could tip the scale, but it’s a big question mark whether China would get involved any closer.
QC 90 – GRIEF
CHI 40 – GUILT
Very, very low calibrations for the economy. But I’ve seen as low and even lower elsewhere, with no revolutionary situation. Therefore, the economy alone isn’t enough for the current revolutionary/regime change development. Therefore, there is a very definitive influence from abroad!
This will help us clarify matters:
BONUS! Let’s calibrate the truth in the statement: USA IS INTERFERING IN VENEZUELA AND IS TRYING TO ORCHESTRATE A REGIME CHANGE! This will show us the real in-depth truth of the situation!
510 – LOVE (!)
In other words, the level of truth in this statement is exceedingly high! This is as close as it gets to the complete truth!
Back to Venezuela calibrations:
40 – GUILT
49 – GUILT
As we see, the levels of financial solvency and sovereignty of Venezuela are extremely, disastrously low. This should have been expected, considering the current crisis. This is very close to the death throes, and that’s when international vultures descend to take over Venezuela’s oil fields!
The silver lining: Russia and China are interested in keeping Venezuela away from the US clutches. And there is also a very serious involvement by Cuba. Thirdly, half of the world, if not more, is against the US interference. This denotes hope for Venezuela.
Maduro is so far acting correctly, forging alliances abroad and solidifying his support within the country. The future will show whether Maduro can sustain pressure for a prolonged period of time.
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The book contains nearly 1000 calibrations for 91 countries and regions, economies, armies, global organizations, superpower index, analysis and predictions, and much, much more!
Remember I said that the more US tries to surround Russia with bases, hostile regimes and provocations, the more it will create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Russia would simply be forced to respond.
As the Russian saying goes, ‘Russians saddle slowly but ride fast.’ NOT a good idea to test Russia, you know. It never ends well for the aggressor.
I told you recently about the renewed Russian interest in Cuba. And this is Russia-Venezuela joint drills.
Pompeo is livid.
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During Maduro’s speech before Venezuela’s ‘Bolivarian Guard’ in Caracas, a drone exploded, flying above the parade. The responsibility for the attack has been assumed by a Venezuelan underground opposition organization. Note that Maduro appears to have much more courage than his army. He actually attempted to continue speaking after the explosion, while, as you’ll see in the second video, the soldiers scattered about like scared rabbits. How much confidence such army inspires, I don’t know. The name ‘Bolivarian’ is meant to inspire courage and consolidation (named after Simon Bolivar, the leader of the S. American fight for independence against Spanish colonialism, clearly a hint regarding the US neo-colonialism).
There are three versions of what happened, as I see them.
1 – The pro-US opposition and US MSM are floating this idea: it was Maduro’s own false flag, to hike his ratings and to justify a crack down against opposition. Indeed, six people have been arrested after the explosion, which proves nothing, as any normal government would do this to suspects.
As to the ‘false flag’ idea, I seriously doubt it. For one, it was very sloppily executed and highly illogical. The shrapnel from the exploding drone not only could have injured the troops and officials, but Maduro himself. I don’t see that at all as possible.
2 – This really was an attempt against Maduro, but very poorly and inefficiently executed. Maduro, like Chavez before him, is a major thorn for the US and the CIA would love nothing more than to get rid of him.
Click to read this very relevant article on Patreon! This article is FREE for my FT subscribers and is strongly recommended if you really want to understand what’s happening!
But the attack seemed very unprofessionally executed. If it was supposed to end in Maduro’s death, there were many more unobtrusive and effective methods of dealing with that. As an example, look at what they’d done to Chavez (I previously wrote about it), or how they dealt with Brazil’s impeached ex-president Dilma Rousseff and her predecessor Lula, or what happened to Correa and Moreno – read FREE article by clicking on above link.
This is why I prefer the third version, which no one seems to address:
3 – It was muscle flexing by the US-backed opposition, and a warning to Maduro. It was basically an intimidation attempt not just for him, but for his military as well. In such case it could have been performed very publicly, in a very flashy way, and perhaps even intentionally sloppily.
I don’t think Maduro can be intimidated this easily, but I would advise him to watch his back very carefully. I know he does, especially after everything that recently happened to his peers: in Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, not to mention his friend Chavez. But Maduro must be even more careful going forward.
I have no doubts of Maduro’s personal courage. But I wonder about that of his army…
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Read EARTH SHIFT REPORT 23:
Breaking news: US president Obama announced that he was lifting some of the 50-year-old sanctions against Cuba, using his executive powers – only Congress can lift embargo completely. An exchange of prisoners has taken place, certain business and travel restrictions to Cuba are expected to be lifted. Obama announced that it’s time to normalize relations between the two countries. The Miami anti-Cuban lobby is up in arms.
Various analysts have been speculating why this is happening now. Some think it’s a sign of the USA’s weakness, others believe it is to tear Cuba away from Venezuela’s influence, and to impede Cuba’s relationship development with Russia and China.
As you know, I have been to Cuba years ago, when embargo was in full swing. You can find 2 interviews on the INTERVIEWS page, where I talk about some of my Cuban experiences. I also wrote about Cuba in: New Predictions! Putin Goes to Latin America: US Creates Wars – Russia Extends a Hand of Cooperation.
The US government must have read this last article of mine and felt ashamed of its behavior. No, not really…
But in all seriousness, here is why a sudden warming towards Cuba. In my view, it’s both weakness and cunning at the same time.
Why it is weakness: US is conducting an unprecedented and unheard off previously in scale attack on Russia (economic, monetary, political and proxy-military via third parties). More on that in Paul Craig Roberts interview.
Meanwhile, US also has to juggle other countries such as China, Turkey and India, which are slowly distancing themselves from the US. Venezuela is next on the list of US sanctions. Latin America is very anti-American and leaning more and more left, including even Mexico, the long-term US vassal. Russia recently had a very productive set of agreements signed with Turkey (Russian gas, building new pipeline, building a number of nuclear power stations). Putin just returned from India, also with nearly $100bln worth of trade agreements. I wrote many times this past year about massive agreements with China. More and more large economies are transitioning to bilateral trade outside of the dollar.
Power is slipping away from the US.
In this situation, Cuba is one front too many on which to fight. If US makes up with Cuba, they are hoping they can pull Cuba into their sphere of influence, or at least neutralize Cuba by seducing those poor people with flashy nothings. This is where the cunning part comes in.
Why it’s cunning: Russia, which is being surrounded by NATO/US military bases that are encroaching on Russia’s borders, is considering establishing a navy base in Cuba. China also signed a number of trade and economic agreements with this ‘imprisoned island’ as Kennedy would say (my only question is: imprisoned by whom?). Anti-US Venezuela presently is the biggest supporter and donor of the Cuban economy. The situation is dicey for the US. Cuba is located too close to US shores for comfort.
Russia and Turkey have agreed on a large number of economic and political agreements, which are bound to get them closer to each other (in perspective, SCO membership for Turkey, which also gets them closer to China). Turkey, having been slighted by the EU’s long-term refusal to admit it into the union, has been looking more and more East. Turkey has also been a reluctant participant in NATO. US has been putting enormous pressure on Turkey and president Erdogan to act in the interests of the US and NATO in the region.
For example, I have no doubt that recent color revolution attempt in Turkey (timed right before 2014 presidential elections) was US organized in order to attempt unseating, or at least to scare Erdogan. The result was the opposite – the moment Erdogan was re-elected, he started the process of getting closer to Russia. Looks like Erdogan also had no doubt who was behind the almost color revolution. It appears Turkey is looking for ways to weaken its dependence, and eventually to leave NATO. As I said on different occasions in similar situations – such exodus will only be possible when US weakens sufficiently.
The reason I talk about Turkey when I should be talking about Cuba is geopolitics, plain and simple. Look at the map. In terms of geopolitical position and value, Turkey is to Russia what Cuba is to the US.
Many of my readers know that I grew up in Odessa, USSR. Odessa is located right across from Turkey, on the Black Sea coast. Since I was a child I heard about captured NATO spies attempting to cross into Russia underwater from the Turkish side. The beautiful beaches in Odessa were dotted with border patrol watch towers. It was always expected that some kind of US/NATO threat would come from the other side of the Black Sea, which was full of NATO bases.
As some readers may remember (this was a little before my time, but I heard enough stories), in 1962 the US/NATO placed nuclear missiles in Turkey, targeting USSR, and specifically the city I was to grow up in – Odessa. Khrushchev and USSR responded by saying they were placing missiles in Cuba, which is known as the Cuban Missile Crisis. Of course, the US history books and MSM lie by twisting the events in such a way as to make it seem it was Khrushchev who initiated the missile crisis. However, every serious historian, in the US as well, will know it was the other way around.
Of course, the Cuban Missile Crisis was extinguished as soon as US removed its nuclear missiles from Turkey. Consequently, USSR cancelled the quid pro quo deployment of its missiles to Cuba. American MSM and history books will make you believe it was a great victory of the US government and an achievement due to Kennedy’s/USA’s tough stance on Russia. From that twisted propaganda point of view, the contemporary US politicians make an equally twisted conclusion that US must continue being tough on Russia. As an example, see the new anti-Russian US Congress resolution allowing Obama to tighten sanctions against Russia.
Just look at this brilliant logic! While Obama admits that sanctions didn’t work on Cuba, doing more harm than good – at the same time, miraculously, these same sanctions will somehow work on Russia!
I have a better solution for the US: 1. stop bullying the entire world; 2. lose your superiority complex, which in fact is severe inferiority complex – and conflicts you create globally will start dissipating all by themselves.
Now you know why I was talking about Turkey. Cuba and Turkey are interconnected geopolitically. In 2014, as US/NATO/EU were concentrating on the destruction of Ukraine, Putin/Russia were shoring up allies in Latin America, China, Central Asia and Turkey. Another hidden victory of Putin is Azerbaijan. Putin brokered a new truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan, averting bloodshed in the disputed Nagorny Karabakh and potential color revolution in Armenia. Azerbaijan is a big factor for Turkey’s swing towards Russia. Basically, very quietly, US just lost influence over Azerbaijani oil and gas, and at least began losing Turkey.
Now that Turkey is leaning towards Russia and China, US is attempting to rebalance the situation by tempting Cuba to join the US sphere of influence. Wouldn’t that be ironic? I personally don’t think it will go anywhere. I know Cubans; I also know Russians, Venezuelans and Chinese. I know Americans too – perhaps even better.
That said, we are entering an era of very complex, multi-move geopolitical chess matches. The small, poor and in-between countries, the ‘swing vote’ so to speak, is where a lot of geopolitical games will be concentrating. Every player will try to get them on their side. Such countries can benefit tremendously in the global repositioning of power – if they are smart.
This kind of global geopolitical situation is a sure sign of the collapse of the old US-dominated uni-polar world. US empire is weakening, albeit slowly.
My assessment: I think US started using smarter advisors compared to those they used for the Kiev coup and Ukraine. But not smart enough.
It will be great if embargo is lifted and Cuba can start breathing easier! That said, Cubans, I hope you don’t forget who you are and I hope you remember you aren’t for sale!