Prediction: Crimea Independence Vote
Tomorrow, March 16, 2014, the Crimean Autonomous Republic is voting for independence from Ukraine in a republic-wide referendum.
As I have said before, my prediction is: 75%, plus/minus 5%, will vote for independence from Ukraine and for re-joining Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation. The result could be as high as 80%.
In the run-up to the referendum, the Crimean government has done something very smart: they have afforded the Tatar language the status of the third official language, along with Russian and Ukrainian – something that Ukraine had repeatedly refused to do, therefore securing the Tatar minority’s pro-Russian vote. Compare that with how Kiev unelected authorities are acting: they have banned Russian TV channels and Russian language as the second state language, promising the continuous forceful ukrainization of the Russian population. As a reminder: up to 70% in Ukraine consider themselves Russian regardless of their ethnicity, and nearly 90% speak Russian on a daily basis. Meanwhile, in Crimea 97% of the population is Russian-speaking.
The Crimean referendum, to which many international observers have been invited, is happening in the atmosphere of the overwhelming hysteria and threats by the US/EU/UK politicians and Western media, as well as constant attempts by Kiev and Ukrainian nazis to disrupt/sabotage it.
You can read more about this in: Ukraine Geopolitics: Why Does Merkel Disregard Opinion of Her People?
Also, my latest interview with The Plane Truth regarding Ukraine covers this issue and my various predictions.
Those who are screaming about Russia’s “invasion of Crimea,” those who are threatening Russia with sanctions, should remember this:
They were the ones who created instability in Ukraine. It was USA’s $5bln as admitted by Assistant US Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, spent on “subverting Ukraine,” on manipulating the maidan, and on training/arming nazi thugs in western Ukraine that created this situation. Watch leaked Nuland video.
They were the ones who made it impossible for the Russian-speaking population to exist on their own land as long as it remained part of the unfriendly territory of Ukraine.
They were the ones whose intention was – and continues to be – to create the area of Middle East-like instability in Ukraine in order to destabilize Russia, sabotaging its normal existence and development.
As they say in Russia, “don’t dig a grave for someone else – you’ll end up in it yourself.”
Those who organized and executed the maidan, and then tried to pin it on Russia; those who keep killing, kidnapping and driving the Russian-speakers out of Ukraine; those US/EU media and politicians, who lie about what is really happening in Ukraine, should blame exclusively themselves for what is happening now. It is their handiwork from start to finish, and this is just the beginning.
This is for those of the Ukrainian people who have their country’s best interests at heart: think! If the US/EU really wanted to help Ukraine, would they have done any of this? Would they have supported western Ukraine nazis? Would Nuland and Western politicians come to Kiev to incite violence? Would they have financed snipers that were shooting people on both sides to ignite more anger and violence?
They don’t care about Ukraine and its people – all they care about is how to further their geopolitical aims, or how to get a new market for their goods. They want to enslave Ukraine through IMF loans and through fracking that would destroy the economy and poison prized Ukrainian agricultural lands. People and countries are just cannon fodder for them. Since World War II, USA has forcefully changed regimes in 35 countries and bombed at least 34 countries (more if you count drone strikes).
In my earlier piece: Ukraine Part 6. Striking Geopolitical Similarities: Georgian War – Beijing2008 and Ukraine – Sochi2014, I have predicted that South Ossetia 2.0 scenario is presently developing in Ukraine. My prediction is coming true: Crimea will secede from Ukraine, just like South Ossetia and Abkhazia seceded from Georgia.
If the maidan leaders, as well as their Western handlers, did have the best interests of the Ukraine at heart, they would have simply waited for the new presidential elections in 2015. If Yanukovich was as bad as they say, they would have won easily, wouldn’t they? And that would have been a legal and democratic way of doing this. That would have been the sure way to keep the country intact. However, I suspect they knew they couldn’t win and as a consequence they chose the violent way.
They also had to execute their regime change while Russia was occupied with Sochi Olympics and could not move a muscle for fear of boycott and simply because all resources were being used for Sochi.
They may have won short-term. But by chosing the illegal and violent way, they have signed the verdict for Ukraine. The Russian-speaking majority in the country saw the writing on the wall and it is now voting with their feet.
In an earlier post I noted that the situation in which Ukraine’s Russian-speaking, GDP producing, and hard-working east and south have found themselves is “typical taxation without representation – and we all know how that ends.” In the USA, it ended in the American Revolution that freed the country from dependence from England.
In this case, tomorrow’s referendum will free Crimea from Ukraine. Crimean referendum will set the precedent which is eagerly awaited by other parts of Ukraine.
My prediction: Crimea is not the only part of Ukraine that will secede. There are ongoing pro-Russian protests in Donbass, Kharkov and Odessa. These regions will continue fighting to secede, unless Ukraine changes its direction completely and totally. And this will happen, whether those who have orchestrated Ukraine’s regime change want it or not.
New info added! This is a comment from a reader of the repost of this article on Lada Ray Blog: “As an American expat living in Zaporozhye oblast you can also add Zaporozhye to that list, there has already been talk in the regional parliament about succession. We think Ukraine will split into 3.” Read comment.
P.S. Breaking news: As confirmed by a Russian press agency, Crimea shot down 2 US spy drones that are presently being taken apart for evidence.
A question from a reader on Lada Ray Blog: “What will the West do now?” My answer:
“Lots of noise and disinfo about Russia. In reality, they can’t do much as far as sanctions go. Anything they do will only expedite Russian economy’s transition/re-orientation to the East and abandoning of the dollar.
The dangerous part is the military build-up of NATO troops on Ukraine’s border. However, since they can’t do much – at least openly – against Russia, their only recourse is to resort to terrorism, provocations and sabotage. This is my biggest fear. Russia, Crimea and East/South of Ukraine have to brace themselves for a wave of terrorism and provocations directed from the West.
They must fortify their defenses and they must expose any evidence of provocations in the media and social networks. This is the way to discourage provocations/terrorism/sabotage from happening.
It’s been reported that Crimea just shot down 2 US drones. There is a lot of ugly stuff going on. I’ll speak more about that in future articles and YouTube videos.”
For more read new page Predictions
Check out Lada Ray’s books that take place in Russia: The Earth Shifter and Gold Train
Read other articles about Ukraine:
- Ukraine Geopolitics: Why Does Merkel Disregard Opinion of Her People?
- Lada Ray Interview With Plane Truth: The Road to Moscow Goes Through Kiev
- Ukraine and Presstitutes: Will Russia Cut off the EU Gas Supply?
- Ukraine Part 8: Crimea Secedes, Eyewitness from Kiev, and What is USA Really After?
- Ukraine Part 7: Russia’s Geopolitics, USA’s Bluff and EU’s Big Mistake
- Ukraine Part 6. Striking Geopolitical Similarities: Georgian War – Beijing2008 and Ukraine – Sochi2014
- What is Really Happening in Ukraine? Part 5: US, EU, Civil War and Bankruptcy
- What is Really Happening in Ukraine? Part 4: Nazi Coup Succeeds
- What is Really Happening in Ukraine? Part 3: Ukraine’s Future
- What is Really Happening in Ukraine? Part 2: Predictions
- What is Really Happening in Ukraine? Part 1: Analysis
Posted on March 15, 2014, in Geopolitical Trends, Predictions 2014 & Long-Term, Russia, Ukraine and tagged Crimea, Crimean March 16 referendum, Crimean vote for independence, Merkel, predictions by Lada Ray, predictions for Crimean independence vote, Russia, Ukraine, US and EU interference in Ukraine, USA, western interference in Ukraine. Bookmark the permalink. 11 Comments.
I was under the impression that a lot of Russian speakers had moved to Russia over the last 20 years, and that the birth rate was lower in the industrialized Russian areas as compared to the more agricultural West. Plus, there has been a rather strong policy of Ukrainization that pressures areas to use more Ukrainian when feasible, and this would be particularly strong in the schools. So the use of Russian should be significantly less than when the USSR fell apart. Or so one would imagine. Of course, the lies are long and numerous with this country, so I can’t pretend to know, and may be misinformed.
Not based on anything solid, but I bet it’s more like 83%.
The official number for Crimea’s Russian-speaking population, according to Sevinformburo (Sevastopol, Crimea) is 97%. The remaining 3% is most likely the Crimean Tatar language.
No one in their right mind would ever speak Ukrainian in Crimea as no one wants to speak it there. So, who would any Ukrainian-speakers be communicating with? Anyone who knows even a little bit about that area of the world would confirm my words.
P.S. Let me amend what I said: there may be some Ukrainian-speakers who are the Ukrainian army servicemen stationed in Crimea, as well as their families. However, they are not Crimean citizens. Besides, all of them speak Russian just as well, or better. All the news and interviews from Crimea I see – and I listen to a lot of them now, are only in Russian, including those from Ukrainian military.
Btw, all Crimeans had to study Ukrainian, so they all speak it. I had to study Ukrainian too when I grew up in Odessa, but no one in Odessa spoke Ukrainian, even native Ukrainians.
It appears that it is very difficult for Westerners to understand that part of the world, although it seems so simple to me.
Thanks a lot, very interesting opinion!
Oh, I thought you were referring to the Ukraine as a whole. Perhaps I was mixing your other post with this one. Undoubtedly, the Crimea could be said to be more Russian than Texas is American.
No problem. 🙂
Спасибо большое. Есть люди на западе которым не всё равно
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