NEW Intel and Predictions: Peace and War Crimes in Ukraine? Russian Gas or Cold Winter? Mrs. USA in Crimea?
Russian gas and peace: peace in Ukraine suddenly on the agenda as winter draws near
I am starting off with something unheard of before! Last night in Gorlovka, DNR, Novorossia (E. Ukraine) there was a joint PEACEFUL meeting of Ukraine army and Novorossia military commanders with the representatives of Russia and OSCE. Russia was represented by General Alexander Lentsov, Assistant Commander of Infantry of the Russian Federation. The military on all sides were discussing why ceasefire isn’t working – the civilian quarters are still being bombed. The participants were trying to solidify the ceasefire agreements. This info in Russian: starts at 2:20 to 4:40. Although no agreements were reached and Ukraine reps refused to talk to the media, the major breakthrough is that the military on both sides is at least willing to talk to each other, instead of shooting. Although this word wasn’t spoken, but in fact the military were discussing the new border between Novorossia and Ukraine, de-facto recognizing the new state.
De-facto Kiev already recognized our independence, says DNR head Zakharchenko. Video – Rus.
To say that such a meeting constitutes a massive breakthrough is to say nothing. I said in LRL4: Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine that Ukraine and Novorossia will eventually have to agree on peace – they will have no choice. Incidentally, the closer we get to the winter, the more desperate the Ukraine/Kiev junta side will become to agree on something; the more malleable their position will become. Poroshenko may be a US stooge, but he is also an oligarch, hence survivor par excellence. He knows that if he doesn’t do everything he can so that his country can survive this winter, by next spring he will have another maidan on his hands, and he will have Yulia Tymoshenko breathing down his neck – and Yulia’s breathing is deadly. She is bound to topple Poroshenko on a new wave of public discontent. Poroshenko knows all about it, after all he was one of the original financiers and instigators of the 2004 Orange revolution, seen next to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko delivering victory speeches.
Of course the closer we get to winter, the more EU itself is sounding alarm bells. Both EU and Ukraine were audacious during warm months, when the need in Russian gas was low and reserves in both Ukraine and EU high. But come winter, the spread changes dramatically.
Prediction: the closer we get to winter, the more agreeable and malleable both EU and the Ukraine junta will become. I won’t be surprised if EU sanctions against Russia will be quietly forgotten and demurely set aside. “We were just joking,” they’ll say. “Can happen between the best of friends. Can you please allow our goods back into the Russian market? And can you please continue supplying us with Russian gas?” This process has already started.
I have this advise for Russia’s leadership: Don’t trust these announcements much. These are not the people to trust, they are the same neocons and neoliberals who were yelling that Russia was aggressor just several short months ago. Although, sure – dialogue is always a great idea. Talking and finding points of mutual agreement is what Russian diplomacy always excelled at. Of course the difficulty always was to find someone lucid enough on the other side to talk to. It seems only the FEAR of their own hardship can get some sense into the EU politicians. Obviously, the fact that their efforts to create the area of instability in Ukraine due to their ulterior motives, caused immense suffering and a brutal civil war, concerns them not. Absolutely the same process is happening in Ukraine, except there are even fewer people with whom it’s possible to reason in Kiev.
It will take time for the EU to truly change leadership, but it’ll happen. It will be a tedious and unpleasant process. The population of Europe has the power to change the EU leadership, therefore changing the continent’s course, but many are still duped by the MSM. Present day EU has been hijacked by the Transatlantic-centric neocons, and on the economic side, by US/UK-centric banksters. However, the awakening has started.
And of course, here it is! What do you know! During Berlin meeting between Russia, very worried EU, and clueless Ukraine, Ukraine promised to pay for a large portion of its $5bln+ gas debt to Russia. What’s new is that EU now gives personal guarantees that the Ukraine deadbeat will fulfil its promise. How sweet! As soon as the heating season starts looming, how much more agreeable the EU and Ukraine get! What an amazing metamorphosis from the summer bellicose and hateful rhetoric! Listen to this info in Russian, including charts: starts at 7:20.
After all this, is there any way to respect or treat seriously such people? Think not.
Gas price and Ukraine debt to Gasprom: Ukraine will get Russian gas if they pay $3.1 bln out of $5.3 bln they owe Gasprom. In the future gas supply will be pre-paid only; the price is $385, which is a compromise. This is a $100 discount to the EU gas price. In reality, many EU countries pay less, which depends on volume and how long-term their agreement with Gasprom is. But since Ukraine never made long-term agreements with Russia, and even the ones they had made, keep being broken, they are not eligible for discounts.
If Ukraine fulfills these requirements, it will receive 5bln cubic meters of gas, which should be enough for the winter… if it’s warm. The likelihood is that Ukraine may need much more gas, as they’ve been lying about their true gas reserves. In that case, they will likely start siphoning EU gas as it happened so many times before.
Let’s remember that just before being overturned by the maidan coup in February 2014, Yanukovich signed the deal with Russia according to which the nearly bankrupt Ukraine would have been getting the much-needed gas at $220. Belarus, the member of the Customs Union, gets Russian gas practically for free, at $180, making Belorussian economy very competitive compared to the EU. This in part accounts for the so-called “Belorussian miracle” – stability, great infrastructure, robust economy, etc. I might do a piece about that at some point. So, the inevitable conclusion is that it’s so much more profitable to be friends with Russia.
Let’s compare this to Ukraine and the 2014 violent Kiev coup under anti-Russian slogans. What did they achieve? They lost Crimea and at least Donbass. Donbass in 2013 was responsible for 30% of the Ukraine GDP. Grivna is drastically down despite Kiev cooking the books and world banksters being complicit in propping up the dying grivna. Inflation is skyrocketing. Ukraine is about to freeze in the winter.
Ukraine is selling strategic grain reserves
My intel also says this: due to the economic problems and the fact that coffers are empty, Ukraine is now exporting its strategic grain reserves. These reserves are usually kept intact because they are normally needed in the winter. The grain trains keep moving towards Mariupol. Mariupol is the Azov Sea port, one of the few suitable ports Ukraine has left (apart from Odessa and Ilichevsk – both in Odessa oblast + military port in Nikolaev). In Mariupol the grain gets loaded into ships and leaves the country. Another version is that the Kiev junta is trying to move the grain normally stored in eastern Ukraine to the western side of the country, anticipating that all of eastern Ukraine may be lost to them eventually and thus preparing to leave people without food in retaliation.
Either way, the result may be not only winter cold, but also hunger. This info is from Oleg Tsarev – former Rada deputy and presidential candidate, who is now the Speaker of the Novorossia parliament.
Mariupol is a bone of contention between Novorossia and Kiev. It is a city of 400,000 located in the Donetsk oblast. It has been occupied by the Kiev army since May. DNR says it belongs to Novorossia since it’s part of the Donetsk oblast. Kiev disagrees. Mariupol is a very important a valuable port for Novorossia, which would give them access to the Black Sea. I talk about it in LRL4: Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine. In this episode, you’ll also find the detailed map of Ukraine, including Mariupol.
And another interesting thing to point out: where did all the talk about the US shale gas that would replace Russian gas go? Obviously, the EU did some number crunching and came to the inevitable conclusion that it wouldn’t work. Another interesting thing to note: the absolute silence of the US on the Ukraine and EU front, including the gas issue. Remember how vocal was the US until August that they would replace Russian gas with theirs?
I said in my prior article that US saw they were losing in Ukraine and they made a deal with Russia to quietly disengage from Ukraine in exchange for minor adjustments elsewhere from Russia’s side (I wouldn’t trust the US long-term, but for the time being – temporarily – it’s fine). Read more in My Latest Intel: Did US Lose in Ukraine? Is Putin the Best Russian Leader? Do People Prefer Conspiracies to Real Truth? All the above confirms my earlier intel.
EU was a part of the deal and now we are seeing that the EU starts acting differently in Ukraine, acting as one of the brokers for peace. But also notice how they are acting elsewhere: both UK and France are starting to bomb ISIS positions in the Middle East. All this is connected.
Rest assured that the real negotiations are still going on between Russia and US only, with EU playing the second fiddle and the point man, and Ukraine being used as loose change and cannon fodder (when will they finally learn?). I won’t say more at this point. Please read between the lines.
Atrocities by Kiev junta and Future International Tribunal
I have been predicting in my earlier articles that there will be an international tribunal that will convict Ukraine war criminals, just like the Nuremberg tribunal convicted the German Nazis. The people and governments of Russia, DNR and LNR, as well as elsewhere in Ukraine, are documenting the atrocities in the so-called White Book. Many names of those guilty have been identified. Eventually, all these materials will serve as proof for prosecution.
This is so horrible that I have a lot of trouble talking about it! The new gruesome discoveries of mass graves of tortured and killed civilians, with hands tied behind their backs and mutilated faces, are being discovered in E. Ukraine as the Kiev junta army retreats. This is so chilling and horrific that I decided not to post any links, except one. You can find much more material about these awful discoveries by Googling it or by searching on YouTube. Also go to RT.com – see my Resources page above for link.
These are some of the horrifying stories from RT:
A freed from junta village destroyed by the Kiev nazis: an old woman says that she survived by miracle when bomb hit her house. Mostly only old people are left, who have no place to go – all others took refuge in Russia. The woman says that her neighbor didn’t take the main road home once; she wanted to take a shortcut through the fields – and the Kiev national guard just shot her point-blank. When they were leaving, says the old lady, their tongues became loose and one confessed: “You should be thankful,” he said, “that we left you alive. We had orders to level your village completely and to kill everyone.”
Old people, who once survived WWII, are saying that German nazis didn’t behave as badly as these, who call themselves Ukrainians and who insist they want to live with their victims in the same state. This explains why Hitler himself was afraid of the ukro-nazis from the western Ukraine SS division Galichina and similar SS units.
Locals from the small towns that just got freed from the contemporary ukro-nazis testify that the occupiers would ride into town, enter a building and start crashing windows and everything in sight. Before leaving, they burned down all the books in the library and went in rooms, on walls and everywhere they could. For them, toilets apparently are superfluous.
This story of a man who came back alive, but branded, is going viral. It can probably be easily found on the net. The man was tortured with hot irons. They branded the huge word “separatist” across his entire chest. On his rear they branded him with a huge – I mean huge – swastika.
The Donbass self-defence had to stop the agreed upon exchange of prisoners. While self-defence was giving back real soldiers, the Kiev junta side was sabotaging the exchange: instead of fighters or activists it was sending simple civilians. Many of these civilians were kidnapped from their respective towns in other parts of the country when they were going about their business. They were tortured, made confess of something and then exchanged for the real nazi killers and military. Realizing that they were unwittingly enabling these kidnappings, the Novorossia government stopped the prisoner exchange till further notice.
Here is a link provided by reader Nemo (Spasibo!):
Nemo1024Sep 28, 12:20 pm: Alas, yet another mass grave was discovered on the territory that was for two weeks occupied by the ignominious battalion Ajdar of the Ukrainian National Guard: http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1472678
I want to remind everyone that this is the regime that has been brought to power, wined and dined, fully supported, enabled and protected from justice by the US and EU! This is a fine illustration of what kind of democracy the Western governments spread all over the world!
Why Kiev junta doesn’t trust its own army and intelligence (SBU)
How can they! Let’s recall that since February-March 2014 (go to my articles under Ukraine category for that period) I said that at least part of Ukraine army is more likely to have allegiance to Russia than to the Kiev junta. That was said well before the gruesome war was initiated in E. Ukraine by the Kiev junta. My words proved true quickly when Crimea became Russian again and most of the Crimea’s contingent of the Ukraine navy and military switched to Russian side.
During the last few months, officers and soldiers in the Ukraine army, police and intelligence have been resigning in droves, deserting or defecting. The number of desertions constitutes by different accounts 1/4, or more, of the entire army.
Many are hiding from draft, or refuse to ship to E. Ukraine. Various reports have been surfacing of Ukraine national guard, consisting of known nazis and felons let out of jail, shooting those who refused to fight or who was caught trying to surrender to self-defence. They sometimes would shoot entire units and then bury them by the road, spraying acid on top so bodies couldn’t be identified.
The disaster in Ukraine army is such that many relatives have no idea if their loved ones are alive or dead. Thousands are MIA, most of these in fact victims of their own army. When all this is over, there will be lots of shocked and grieving people in Ukraine, and lots of explaining to do. The losses in Ukraine army, in big part by the hand of their own, will prove staggering. Once peace comes, this unpleasant disclosure will have to be made sooner or later, and this is one of the reasons some in Ukraine want to prolong the war for as long as possible.
That said, Ukraine army is quickly running out of cannon fodder, and that was one of the reasons they needed the present ceasefire. Meanwhile, more and more Ukraine soldiers are going public saying they were betrayed and left to die by their commanders. Recently, 400 conscripts from Western Ukraine took off in their ARCs and rode home. On another occasion, 200 from Vinnitsa in central Ukraine also simply abandoned their positions and went home to the relief of their families. More about that in LRL4: Predictions Coming True; Mind Control in Ukraine.
It has been shown that Ukraine’s army officers who hardly get paid, in order to survive have routinely sold the army hardware, weapons and munitions to Donbass self-defence. This was done for two reasons. First, to make money, and second – to earn future forgiveness when this Kiev junta is finished.
Same goes for intel. Ukraine army officers have been known to pass info about their position and movement, therefore allowing DNR and LNR self-defence to regroup and counter the attack, or take the unit prisoner. Intel by secret sympathisers allowed to surround and destroy some of the most hard-core and vicious national guard ukro-nazi battalions. This is one of the reasons they have been so successful in creating “cauldrons” – surrounding the Kiev troops. Regular Ukraine military hates national guard as much as the Donbass people.
In fact, the military in Ukraine see the writing on the wall. Some in the Ukraine army and SBU (intelligence) are trying to earn future exoneration of their past and present sins by playing double agent role.
New intel: Poroshenko and his cronies in the Kiev junta government have announced the “cleansing” of SBU – read, they don’t trust their own intelligence services due to the fact that some among them may be double agents. This isn’t being advertised, but it’s understood.
Remember the leaked phone conversations between Nuland and US Kiev ambassador where Nuland is heard ‘appointing’ Ukraine’s PM and other officials? This was also the conversation in which she said, “F**k EU.” Another leaked call was that of Tymoshenko where she said that all Russians living in eastern Ukraine must be nuked. Who leaked these conversations in social media? One of the prevailing opinions is that it came from the dissenting SBU officers. The Kiev junta has been on the hunt for these since the beginning. Poroshenko is starting a new round of ‘Gestapo-style final solution cleaning.’ These are trained spies though, and I seriously doubt they can be found out that easily.
Building Bridges: massive construction of the railroad bridge to Crimea and… Mrs. USA Pageant in Sevastopol
Video interview in Russian. Глава РЖД: Работы по строительству железной дороги через Керченский пролив уже ведутся.
Head of Russian Railways: ‘we are already conducting preliminary work to prepare for the construction of the railroad through the Kerch Strait to connect mainland with the Crimea. We were the first ones ready to start. The bridge through the Kerch Strait will be adopted for auto and railroad traffic. The initial railroad isn’t planned to be high-speed, although we will be able to adopt it for high-speed trains. It all depends on investments we receive.’
Due to the blockade by Ukraine, Crimea has a very limited connection with mainland Russia since there is no land border between the two. The only reliable traffic is via the Black Sea ferry and shipping service, but it’s not enough for the huge peninsula with 2 million population. The air traffic to Crimea, which is now effectively an ‘island,’ is being partially blocked by sanctions. If my readers remember I talked about the Russian budget airline that was sanctioned because it dared to fly to Crimea. Crimea is also suffering from the lack of investments as even Russian companies are afraid to do business with Crimea for fear of being cut off from SWIFT and Western loans, or for fear of personal sanctions against their top management. Same goes for Russian banks. Very few open branches in Crimea because of the same fear.
This situation is being resolved little by little and it will take time to normalize it. Of course, Russian companies think in terms of profit, just like any capitalist structure in the world.
However, this is being addressed slowly. One of the reasons for a relatively slow response is the unresolved situation in Ukraine. Ukraine 2-4 years from now will have a different management and direction, as we discussed in some of my prior articles. Russians would prefer to invest in Crimea when they know exactly what needs to be done in conjunction with the changed situation in Ukraine.
But the blockade is being slowly broken and the situation is about to change!
No, it’s not a joke, and you aren’t hallucinating! 😉 Mrs. USA pageant will take place, of all places, in Sevastopol, Crimea, Russia in the spring of 2015. It will be happening jointly with Mrs. Russia pageant. Sevastopol is the so-called ‘city of the Russian glory,’ and the seat of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. So, this may seem bizarre, and already voices are heard that this is a disgrace. However, in view of the blockade we discussed above, it’s a creative way to break through the wall of disinfo and lies.
Can you imagine how much this single pageant, incidentally, conducted together with the Russian pageant (and they are also discussing having other countries participating), will do to change the minds of the Americans about Crimea and Russia? And I can assure you, the Sevastopol backdrop is gorgeous and under-rated. It will do them good to open up to the world.
The organizer of the Mrs. USA contest admits that it was his idea. He himself has roots in Odessa and Belarus, where a lot of Russian jews lived historically. He also was on the organizer committee for the Los Angeles 1984 Olympics. In retaliation for the US and West boycotting the 1980 Moscow Olympics, USSR and other countries boycotted the 1984 US Olympics. He says he learned back then that boycotts and sanctions are a bad idea. I think this is admirable initiative, conducive of dialogue instead of fighting. As the Russian saying goes, poor peace is better than a good war.
However, this is what’s really going on behind the scenes. In fact, Mrs. USA contest in Crimea is none other than a signal that the West, and USA in particular, is going to play ball going forward. This is a confirmation of what I said in prior articles: USA made a deal and is ready to start slowly backing off from Ukraine. Let’s just say Mrs. USA in Crimea is a sort of olive branch. A few months from now, the West will start slowly disengaging from the anti-Russian sanctions, possibly sooner.
I have predicted this whole scenario, including US/EU threats and vilifying of Russia through anti-Russian media campaign, in article: Ukraine Part 6. Striking Geopolitical Similarities: Georgian War – Beijing2008 and Ukraine – Sochi2014 published on March 2, 2014. It’s well worth the read!
That said, Russians actually want sanctions to last longer. They don’t want them annulled. Do you know why? Russians know their national character – for them the status quo and stability is such an overriding principle that they need an external push to start the badly needed economic reforms to tear the Russian economy away from the Western influence. This is because the karmic and historic role of Russia as the global balancer and harmonizer is firmly imbedded in national psyche. This is a truly admirable national feature, however, under the circumstances and whenever change is needed it becomes a problem.
The fear is that the moment sanctions are over they may get complacent again, striving to preserve balance. Sanctions, or any negative actions by the West are a much-needed kick in the rear.
My advice and wish for the Russians: when sanctions are over, don’t stop, keep going and keep reforming the economy to fit the advanced future society model. Hint: it’s not capitalism. For more on this see PREDICTIONS above. I will also discuss this in detail in future EARTH SHIFT REPORTS. For an interesting angle on this also see my recent article: Multipolar World and Deja Vu.
One of my readers recently asked me why Russia isn’t more forceful in recognizing Novorossia (DNR and LNR). Don’t they want to save the people of Donbass? I responded that of course they do, but for Russia the dilemma is how to save the entire Ukraine, not just Donbass. How to create the situation in the whole Ukrainian territory when, as the saying goes, “the wolves are fed and the lambs are safe.” This is a very tall order, but as I predicted previously, there will be great changes in Ukraine between 2016 and 2018. See more in Predictions.
This is tied into building the infrastructure for the Crimea, as well as the Prindestrovie and Moldova issues. I’ve talked about what is happening in Moldova in LRL2: LadaRayLive 2. Explosion Coming! Moldova/Transnistria – Eurasian Union vs EU. I will have a very interesting special report on Pridnestrovie (Transnistria) soon.
To continue the above topic – coming next! New FREE Earth Shift Report explaining the true history of Ukraine and the roots of rusophobia in Ukraine and post-Soviet space.
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