This is the latest from Donbass. Rumors have been circulating since August that Lugansk and Donetsk Republics were preparing a referendum to take place simultaneously with the local elections. These local elections will take place in DNR and LNR on October 18, 2015 pursuant to Minsk 2 agreements. Mayors of several key cities and heads of some towns are being elected.
The rumor that a new referendum to join Russia is to take place around this time was denied vehemently on several occasions by the head of Donetsk, Alexandr Zakharchenko.
It also has to be said that Donetsk is presently going through a power struggle at the top level. Speaker of the Donetsk parliament Andrey Purgin was recently replaced with Denis Pushilin. Rumors, spread undoubtedly by the Kiev side, that Purgin was arrested turned out false, but they generated a temporary confusion and turmoil in society, which was obviously the goal of this hoax. Certain questions about how it happened and why remain unanswered, although Andrey Purgin already announced that he and his allies were regrouping. While they aren’t participating in the current elections yet, they are in a soft opposition to the current government, exploring their options.
Purgin came out with some mild critical remarks about the current DNR government, calling it ‘recreation of the Yanukovich’s power structure.’ Zakharchenko has been very reserved about the Purgin situation, basically letting know that it is the issue of the parliament.
Purgin was (is) considered a more radical member of the DNR leadership. He was for the advancement of the DNR/LNR troops, taking back the entire Donbass and moving further, towards Kharkov and Kiev. This put him at odds with those who have been working on implementing Minsk 2 agreements, which basically freeze the conflicts.
Since last year, Zakharchenko and head Minsk 2 negotiator for DNR Denis Pushilin (now also the Donetsk parliament speaker) have been labeled by certain hot heads who wanted to continue fighting, as traitors and sleazebags. It is clear that Zakharchenko, Purgin and Pushilin want the same for their people: better life, peace and prosperity. However, they want to achieve it by absolutely different means.
Andrey Purgin announced that instead of running for office in these elections, he prefers to organize a grand social event on November 4th, which is called the Day of National Unity in Russia (As we see, Donbass has adopted all Russian holidays). He said that he is concentrating on rallying resources and volunteers to organize a grand Russian Orthodox event (Krestniy Hod) for the ‘Unity Day’ on November 4.
The Day of National Unity is one of the new Russian holidays. It reminds of the 16th century Time of Troubles and Polish aggression that resulted in occupation of Moscow, and how the country rallied at grassroots to throw out the aggressors. Purgin also announced that the hotheads I mentioned above shouldn’t expect him to go into a tough opposition to present authorities. He intends to cooperate, not fight. Wise words, in my view.
Incidentally, Andrey Purgin was at the very roots of the Donetsk People’s Republic. He was the one who proposed the term 10 years ago, well before the 2014 Kiev maidan.
Lugansk already went through its own internal power struggle between the head of LNR Plotnitsky and local Cossack commanders. The conflict was handled by Plotnitsky quietly and skillfully, proving his political mettle. Undoubtedly he had help and advice in settling this conflict. The re-shaping of the self-defence volunteer units into a regular army helped a lot.
Certain inner conflicts and misunderstandings are a natural development in such new, untested formations as DNR and LNR. The unpredictability of conflict situations diminishes as the new power structure finds its comfort zone and settles. Of course, due to the lack of political experience of these young republics, these conflicts may be mishandled in the information space. Due to the infowar time in which we live, the temporary confusion may result, but it all calms down in due time.
It has been clear from the very first referendum of May 11, 2014 that all Donbass wanted was to join Russia. When people went to the referendum to vote for independence from Ukraine, they really thought they were voting for joining Russia, following the Crimean example. About 90% or more voted for that. However, due to major geopolitical circumstances, it became impossible. I wrote about those circumstances previously on many occasions. And there is more on that below.
In the question of referendum, Donetsk and Lugansk appear to diverge. However, this may be for show.
A couple of days ago the head of Lugansk Republic Plotnitsky was asked whether a referendum to join Russia is being prepared in Lugansk. He replied that if people wanted to have a referendum and if they decided in the referendum to join Russia, the government and he, as head of LNR would honor the will of the people.
This is a very interesting statement. Basically, Plotnitsky is saying that the ball is in the people’s court. Whatever the people decide, he, as their public servant, will make happen.
Also see my previous related post: Beware of Wikipedia, a Tool in Global Info War!
Here are several most important things to keep in mind:
When the Ukraine crisis first began in January-February 2014 I said that Russia was interested in the entire Ukraine, or at least most of Ukraine, as a friendly state. Lugansk, or the entire Donbass joining Russia while the rest of Ukraine remains a US-controlled ukro-nazi mess, would not serve this purpose.
While DNR and LNR are still formally a part of Ukraine (although of course de-facto they are separate states), they are akin to a giant thorn in Kiev junta’s back. From the inside they are helping to change the entire set up of Ukraine, also helping weaken the US grip on Ukraine.
As you all know, since the beginning I had felt terrible for the people of Donbass, Odessa, Kharkov and other parts of Ukraine, who have to suffer daily from the inhumane actions of the Kiev ukro-nazis. It’s very hard on the simple citizens Donbass.
But the geopolitical reality is such that Donbass has no choice other than to continue acting as this thorn, until the status quo in Ukraine changes. You’ll all recall my predictions: there will be a shift and subsequent turnaround in Ukraine, to begin in 2016 and to be completed around 2018 (as usual, more in PREDICTIONS on top bar and in 2014 articles under UKRAINE category).
I haven’t changed my opinion since the beginning of 2014. Given the geopolitical situation, Russia is not in a position to admit Lugansk by itself, or LNR and DNR together, at this time, unless Kiev suddenly attacks Donetsk and Lugansk on all fronts, causing catastrophic destruction – and this won’t happen. EU will not let Kiev do that, plus, Ukraine army isn’t capable of any serious operation anyway. All they can do are some pinpricks in the form of occasional shelling of peaceful citizens, but even that they are unable to accomplish on any scale any more. Their hands are getting more and more tied, due to Russia’s skillful diplomacy of the past year and a half – incidentally, again exactly as I predicted.
Eventually, Lugansk and Donetsk, probably together with Zaporozhie, Kharkov, Kherson, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa, are likely to join Russia as a Novorossia autonomy, or an autonomy by another name. In that case, Pridnestrovie will also join Russia (something the Pridnestrovie citizens had been eagerly awaiting since 1991).
This may happen as Ukraine will start morphing and shrinking into a different entity closer to the end of this decade. Moldova is a big factor in this spread as well. But we are still a couple of years away from such changes.
However, promoting this referendum is a great bargaining chip. Whether LNR really makes it happen or not, by making such announcements Donbass gains more bargaining power vs. Kiev and EU.
DNR/LNR CURRENCY, RUSSIAN LANGUAGE, SCHOOL PROGRAMS AND PASSPORTS:
Donbass getting closer to Russia is a natural process. The possibility of DNR and LNR residents getting Russian passports is being actively discussed. The process has already begun. Below is a piece in Russian discussing this issue.
Because of Kiev’s financial blockade, initially both DNR and LNR had made several currencies – ruble, grivna, dollar and euro – equally admissible for payment. There was also an attempt to create their own independent currency, which has been scrapped. However, within half a year, ruble naturally pushed out other currencies. Presently, 80% of circulating currency in DNR and LNR are rubles.
LNR has just announced the introduction of the new auto license plates. These plates closely resemble Russian license plates.
Donbass has changed its holiday schedule to reflect the Russian holidays, children now study based on Russian school books and Russian language has made a full comeback to DNR/LNR schools. As we know, for 23 years before 2014, Russian language had been squeezed our of Ukrainian schools; twisted and falsified history was taught to children since early age. It still remains the case, and the anti-Russian propaganda is getting worse, in the rest of Ukraine.
Preview of the upcoming Vladimir Putin’s speech at the UNGA, and Putin’s new checkmate:
It promises to be a big event. I will try to post the actual speech on FT. As I said in the previous article about Erdogan and Assad, the US is cracking on Syria, changing its stance on Assad and fighting ISIL. This is due to the widespread failure of the US policy in the Middle East, now recognized by the US Congress; it is also due to unprecedented pressure US is experiencing from its allies, from Germany, UK, France and EU in general to Saudis and Israel.
The shift is so drastic that despite being on not-speaking terms, last Friday US Secretary of Defence had called Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu to offer an olive branch and attempt to get Russian cooperation on Syria.
It is expected that during Putin’s visit to New York US will try to negotiate for the Russian cooperation in the anti-ISIL coalition. However knowing Putin, I anticipate that he will use this opportunity to package Syria negotiations together with Ukraine and DNR/LNR. I expect both issues to be addressed simultaneously, regardless of how much US tries to avoid doing so. In these negotiations, Russia is holding all the good cards, but the US won’t give up easily. I’ll post my analysis after we hear more next week. Stay tuned!
FT NEWS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS
The New Khazarian Khaganate Earth Shift Report is coming out soon. I plan to release it next week.
I also plan a few surprise Earth Shift Reports. One of them will be about the new geopolitical faultline ripening in the Black Sea area. You’ve heard me mention Odessa in several of my previous articles. This is the city I am intimately familiar with. As a matter of fact, the entire Black Sea/Bessarabia/pre-Balkans area is where I grew up. I will explain the convoluted, sinister and very dangerous games being played in Odessa, Pridnestrovie, Moldova, Romania and Turkey, Odessa being the epicenter of the entire scheme.
In the beginning of August, 2015, I wrote this article: The Energy is Shifting! Together, We Have Averted the Worst Outcome! The worst outcome – a new world war – was averted because US was unable to create anti-Russia out of Ukraine the way they planned. However, the new Black Sea games may again put us on collision course with the global war.
As usual, I will provide my assessment and predictions. Stay tuned for the surprise Earth Shift Reports!
Go to LadaRay.info for all Earth Shift Report links
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Today, I have posted my brand new short story, Princess Lila’s Last Gift: Lola and her Kittens, which I hope you check out. It’s a beautiful and inspiring story, which is part of the Lilechka Tribute Series. It is also my contribution to the global Remember Me Thursday #LightForPets, which is today.
I have also recently posted another short story, related to the above: Princess Lila and I. Both may eventually become a part of my future book.
If you are an animal lover, you will enjoy my stories. If you enjoy nature, you’ll also like my recent photographic post about Beautiful Cornell Plantations.
Calibration Reading — Earth & Personal Shift — Earth Shift Predictions — Feng Shui
(see more posts in Ask Lada category)
First thing we all have to keep in mind is that Assad and Erdogan are personal enemies. They hate each other for a variety of reasons. They belong to very different branches of Islam. They represent diverging directions of the Middle Eastern tradition and thought. In everything they do they feel they get in each other’s way.
Turkey and Erdogan have behaved very un-neighborly towards Syria, and it’s understandable that Syrian leader has a grudge against Erdogan.
Turkey in fact is presently fighting a war on several fronts. That includes the internal war with the opposition fed by the West. Syria and Assad’s situation is very difficult, but Erdogan cannot be envied either.
All this is part of the huge karmic opening of old wounds and the beginning of the shift in the Middle East. There is no corner of the globe where the Earth Shift will not be felt, in some places more, in some less. It all depends on how much work the people of a specific region or country have done in the past to clean up their house. Some countries have gone in the past through some very hard, and at times, excruciating work to change their situation. Countries like that include China, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Other countries may have kept their house in relative order. Switzerland is one example. Such countries will go through the Earth Shift with relative ease.
However, the countries that failed to address their problems, simply sweeping them under the rug, will have to deal with a lot of turmoil. Such example is Ukraine. Many countries of the Middle East are also good examples.
The problems of the Middle East are magnified by the local rivalries, lack of acceptance of another’s point of view, and religious intolerance.
Therefore, while Assad himself may believe adamantly what he says, anything he says about Erdogan and Turkey has to be taken with a grain of salt.
This is not to say he is wrong.
But Assad, for one, is brewing in this soup of local rivalries, which often makes it hard, if not impossible, to see a bigger picture. And two, Assad remains a very experienced politician. Knowing his big interview with the Russian media would receive a wide international resonance, he obviously tried to stack the cards to his advantage.
Remember we had talked about targeted info dumps? This is one. More about it: Learn to Tell a Hoax from Targeted Info Dump. It’s not a hoax, but it’s a targeted and manipulated in a certain way message meant for specific audience.
Although this interview is given to the Russian media, the message isn’t necessarily meant for Russia, although I’m certain some Russian Middle East specialists are paying attention. But Russia is firmly in Assad’s corner.
It is meant mostly for the EU and some of the Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt – the largest military power in the Middle East, which often provides the stabilizing element. Egypt powers that be also have a very serious beef with Muslim Brotherhood. The message is also possibly meant for Saudis and Israelis. Iran and Syria are likely on the same page, but it is a reminder for Iran as well. This info dump is meant to scare the recipients into making sure Turkey and Erdogan don’t gain more power. Basically, this is something that will make different powers work together on curbing Turkey’s ambitions.
Assad desperately needs Turkey to weaken. Turkey, together with US, has been training Syrian opposition militants and has been helping any force, including ISIL, that fights the Syrian government. Turkey has been sabotaging the Kurdish attempts to fight ISIL as well. The Kurds, spread around several Middle Eastern countries, want to reunite and demand their own state. They are perceived by Erdogan as a big problem. Therefore, anything Kurds do becomes automatically at odds with what Erdogan wants done.
The entire Middle Eastern scene is extremely convoluted and entangled. It’s simply brimming with controversy and confusion. Sometimes it looks like a war of all against everyone. In the geopolitical arena anyone is regarded with great distrust and suspicion and alliances change on a whim.
Erdogan is put in a very precarious position. Elections are coming. At the same time, Turkey has been housing 2 million Syrian refugees. These are the refugees that Erdogan is now delivering to the border with Greece and sending off to Europe.
Meanwhile, Turkey is trying to quell internal conflict that keeps flaring up. This conflict has its historic roots inside the country, in part because of Erdogan’s stance on Syria and Kurds. The Kurds themselves constantly remind Erdogan they want independence. But the internal conflict has outside sponsors. It flared up and spread after Erdogan and Putin agreed on Turkish Stream. The idea of these well-known outside forces is to create so much instability in Turkey that Turkish Stream would become impossible.
Turkey’s geopolitical position has always been considered super-valuable. But at this time of extreme Earth Shift, it is also a very precarious position, open to all the winds. Erdogan, both because of his policies and because of his geopolitical realities, is finding himself without allies. He gets criticised and attacked from all directions. As I said, he is fighting a war on several fronts.
For several centuries, the Ottoman Empire dominated the Middle East. People still remember that. They certainly don’t want the Turkish-based dominance back. This adds to the suspicion of Turkey. Under such circumstances Erdogan has to look for any sort of affinities and allies wherever he can find them.
There are several powers vying for the dominance in the Middle East: these are Turkey, Iran and Egypt, plus, Saudi Arabia. Saudis are the richest in the Middle East, and they still have the stigma of being USA’s ally, therefore being percieved as being supported by powerful sponsors, whether it’s true any more, or not. Saudis are good at political games, but their army, while very well equipped, isn’t good at fighting. They still have a lot of pull. Israel also has to be factored in, although it’s a different story.
Turkey and Erdogan do dream of dominating the Middle East. Does Erdogan want to increase his influence and re-create the old Ottoman empire in some form? Yes, to a degree, he does. But not necessarily the way Assad portrays it. For one I don’t know if Muslim Brotherhood is that likely to appoint Erdogan their leader, surrendering their power to him. Why would they? They exist as a set structure, with their own chain of command. The most they can do is agree on some sort of alliance.
But more than anything, Turkey wants to be a world player, be accepted on the world stage. Regardless of how Erdogan feels about Muslim Brotherhood, he is a politician first and foremost. In order to be a regional player, Turkey needs to have solid ties with EU, Russia and at least some of the key Middle Eastern countries. Erdogan is trying, but for him it’s one step forward and two backward. Erdogan, by some of his actions, has put himself in a way of confrontation and isolation. This will not create more influence for Turkey, just the opposite.
At the same time, Turkey’s geopolitical location is very important. Turkey is needed as a player, and as a factor. This is the desire of all major powers, including US, EU, Russia and China, because Turkey serves as a counterweight and a balancing factor in the region. But no one will allow Turkey to become a dominant force in the Middle East. Neither Russia, EU or US, nor the aforementioned Middle East players can afford that.
Therefore, it really is inconsequential whether Erdogan is or isn’t an intellectual ally of Muslim Brotherhood. Because of its very special geopolitical position Turkey serves as a bridge between East and West, but doesn’t control much of either.
Such situation suits all super-powers. Turkey is very valuable as a somewhat strong bridge-country, but not too strong. Turkey can do pin pricks to remind of its presence and to demand attention, such as interfering in Syria, sending refugees to the EU, delaying Turkish Stream, or pretending they won’t let US ships into the Black Sea. In the end Turkey always plays ball because that’s the extent of Turkey’s leash.
As a consequence, Turkey’s politics can only work within a certain narrow corridor. Turkish leader who doesn’t stay within this corridor, will not survive. Erdogan has tried to expand this corridor by conducting his own policies. It wasn’t very successful and he has reached the end of his leash.
There is another reason Erdogan is trying to align himself with someone – anyone. The Middle East is changing rapidly. The borders are still being held in place due to the 1945 agreements between USSR, US and UK. However, soon the borders in the Middle East and some other world regions will start crumbling as the new reality emerges.
ISIL, Muslim Brotherhood and dozens, if not hundreds, of other formations that are mushrooming in the Middle East try to grab as much land as they can. The states try to defend their borders, while at the same time attempt to grab what they can as well. Erdogan simply has to stay in the game because in that reality it’s eat or be eaten. He has to play the aggressive game of expansion, or his country will be contracting. He also has to account for contingencies.
This is beyond Erdogan and Turkey’s long-cherished imperial ambitions – it is the reality of survival. This kind of situation exists in some other regions of the world as well.
On different levels – be it social, financial, political or military – this scenario of rapid change and struggle to keep control of the situation is something facing now the majority of countries. Welcome to the Earth Shift!
Therefore, take with a grain of salt what anyone in the Middle East says. Again, this is not to say that Assad isn’t right. He says what he feels is true from his perspective. The entanglements of this region of the world are such that everyone is pulling the blanket onto themselves, touting their own agenda as the only correct one.
But the world leaders such as Putin need to be well above this regional fight; global geopolitical thinking is required. Russia is well-positioned to play a pacifying and balancing role in the Middle East. In fact, it’s the only country that can accomplish this feat.
More breaking stuff:
More news from the Middle East and Syria are coming. Things are shifting fast. The US stance on Assad, Syria and on ISIL is cracking due to Russia’s skillful diplomacy and strides to create anti-ISIL coalition. The international pressure on the US is growing. Some of the biggest pressure is coming from the EU experiencing an unheard of refugee crisis.
Vladimir Putin coming to speak at the UN General Assembly in a week is also a part of the surprise change in the US position. Generally speaking, Putin’s speech at the UNGA has become quite a phenomenon, acquiring a life of its own before it even happened. Putin hasn’t dropped that bomb on New York yet, but the aftermath of the future event is already bearing consequences. I’ll have more on all the developments this week and next. Stay tuned!
This is an interesting related bit, demonstrating just how successfully Russia has made strides in shaping up a coalition on Syria:
NEWS & ANNOUNCEMENTS:
The projected release of the New Khazarian Khaganate Earth Shift Report is next week.
I am also working on some new, surprise Earth Shift Reports. One of them will be about the volatile and important situation developing around the Black Sea region, where a new geopolitical faultline is forming. I’ll share the hot intel from Odessa, Pridnestrovie, Moldova, Romania and Turkey. Stay tuned.
As usual, go to LadaRay.info for all Earth Shift Report links.
Calibration Reading — Earth & Personal Shift — Earth Shift Predictions — Feng Shui