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Per My 2012 Prediction! French Elections and the Rise of Marine le Pen and National Front

It’s official!

Marine le Pen’s National Front wins the first round of regional elections with a national total of about 30%. It’s ahead of Sarkozy’s Republican Party and the trailing ruling Socialist Party of Francois Hollande. National Front gained sharply in the past 3 years and is expected to win again in the second round of these elections. The result has stunned the two traditional parties.

Even if National Front doesn’t win (and barring some huge and almost impossible surprise, such as Sarkozy and Hollande uniting against le Pen, it will win round 2!), Marin le Pen’s star is clearly rising very quickly and definitively, while Hollande’s is plunging, as I predicted in 2012. Back then I also predicted the turnaround of the French policy – and it’s coming. When French policy changes dramatically, it will sweep the change into the rest of the EU. Of course, fully this will happen later, but it’s a good start!

If you think that French regional elections don’t decide that much, it’s true. Regional elections are not very significant per se, but they are considered an important litmus test and dress rehearsal in the run up to the French National Elections of 2017.

marine-le-pen

Marine Le Pen, Member of the European Parliament:

Marine Le Pen is a French politician who is the president of the National Front. Her party was third-largest political party in France in 2011. It grew into the largest party by 2014. More in Wikipedia

Videos with more details

Marine le Pen’s National Front:

I want to note that what passes for ‘far right’ in France, in fact is a tough, but sensible and reasonable conservatism. What’s important is that it’s outside of either neocon or neoliberal ideology presently dominating the West.

Marine le Pen wisely took steps to soften the image of her party by dismissing her party’s tough far right ideologist, who, interestingly enough, happens to be her father and the founder of the National Front. This attracted scores of new voters. Le Pen is a consistent proponent of good relations with Russia, who’s also for France’s sovereign and independent policy. She is a huge critic of the EU in general and Angela Merkel’s policies in particular; USA and NATO skeptic.

In 2012 I had predicted the rise of Marine le Pen and her party.

Here is a quote from my French Presidential Elections 2012 article in which I predicted that Sarkozy would lose and Francois Hollande would win elections.

Excerpts from April 28, 2012 article:

2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone

“Updated prediction:

In a very funny twist, I am predicting that in the second round socialist Hollande (left) will take some of Marine Le Pen’s (far right) votes, along with the fourth place finisher votes (far left).

Seemingly, it doesn’t make any sense. But: the vote for Hollande is a vote against Sarkozy. This is a protest vote, pure and simple. Because, as I said in my January 2012 prediction: “[Sarkozy is] deeply disliked in his country and [that’s why he] will lose.” The French simply don’t want another five years with him.

In addition to Sarkozy’s ineffectual domestic policies and his foreign policy that is both too America-centered and too bellicose for the liking of the French electorate, there is also another reason. As mentioned before, the crisis in the EU continues to deepen and that spells disaster for the incumbent Euro leaders. So far, 9 governments have been ousted due to the European crisis, including Greek, Italian and Dutch. There are more to come. For Sarkozy, this spells the perfect storm.

CONCLUSION:

On May 6, Nicolas Sarkozy will lose the election (which, based on his reaction after the first round has been a surprise only to him, but no one else). The next President of France, breaking with the long-standing French tradition of allowing a president 2 terms in the office, will be… Francois Hollande.

Most importantly, with the new man at the helm, the direction of French politics will undergo a certain change. There will be SOME change in the French attitude towards the EU and Eurozone. However, I wouldn’t expect TOO MUCH of a change at this time. Real change will come later.

Some change to the emigration policy from the poor countries, which is a big problem in many European countries, as well as in Russia. The European countries will attempt to coordinate their emigration policies and certain border controls will be introduced very soon. But the emigration mess will take a very long time to sort out.

Perhaps most notably, with the new president France will change some of its foreign policy. For one, France will stop playing, forgive the expression, “The French poodle” to the US foreign policy, the role it’s been playing during Sarkozy’s neocon tenure. France will re-acquire its more independent stance on foreign affairs, which it used to enjoy under various other presidents since Charles De Gaulle. And hopefully, France’s policy will acquire a more peaceful flavor, as support for invasions and bombings of other countries wanes.

However, if Francois Hollande fails to fulfill these deep-seated hopes of his electorate, the French people will likely vote him out of the office five years from now.

In that case, Marine Le Pen, the rising star of the French politics, emphasizing pride in France, its roots and culture; who is anti-emigration and anti-war, is likely to win the following elections in 2017.”

Read original post!

In 2012 I also predicted Barack Obama’s win, as well as Vladimir Putin’s win with the exact percentage of votes.

Read the original articles on Lada Ray Blog:

YEAR 2012 PREDICTIONS

2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections

2012 Predictions. Year of Elections: Russia, France – USA next!

Predictions 2012 Update: US Presidential Elections

More PREDICTIONS on FuturisTrendcast

New predictions as of 11/24/15, incl. preliminary prediction for US Presidential Election 2016:

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Lada’s 2 Cents: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is trying to save the world from war. We should all help him.

New article by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Reagan’s Asst Treasury Secretary and Father of Reaganomics: Can Putin’s Diplomacy Prevail Over Washington’s Coercion?.

I have come to respect Dr. Roberts tremendously for the work he does and for his ardent desire to tell the truth. It is amazing, coming from a former Washington insider, Wall Street Journal editor, and one of the top mainstream American economists. But we all grow. I was a financial consultant on Wall Street, too; the years I spent there woke me up to the dirty underbelly of the world like nothing else.

By Paul Craig Roberts: June 24, 2014.Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is trying to save the world from war. We should all help him.

Today Putin’s presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov reported that President Putin has asked the Russian legislature to repeal the authorization to use force that was granted in order to protect residents of former Russian territories that are currently part of Ukraine from the rabid Russophobic violence that characterizes Washington’s stooge government in Kiev.

Washington’s neoconservatives are jubilant. They regard Putin’s diplomacy as a sign of weakness and fear, and urge stronger steps that will force Russia to give back Crimea and the Black Sea naval base.

Inside Russia, Washington is encouraging its NGO fifth columns to undercut Putin’s support with propaganda that Putin is afraid to stand up for Russians and has sold out Ukraine’s Russian population. If this propaganda gains traction, Putin will be distracted by street protests. The appearance of Putin’s domestic weakness would embolden Washington. Many members of Russia’s young professional class are swayed by Washington’s propaganda. Essentially, these Russians, brainwashed by US propaganda, are aligned with Washington, not with the Kremlin.

Putin has placed his future and that of his country on a bet that Russian diplomacy can prevail over Washington’s bribes, threats, blackmail, and coercion. Putin is appealing to Western Europeans. Putin is saying, “I am not the problem. Russia is not the problem. We are reasonable. We are ignoring Washington’s provocations. We want to work things out and to find a peaceful solution.”

Washington is saying: “Russia is a threat. Putin is the new Hitler. Russia is the enemy. NATO and the US must begin a military buildup against the Russian Threat, rush troops and jet fighters to Eastern European NATO bases on Russia’s frontier. G-8 meetings must be held without Russia. Economic sanctions must be put on Russia regardless of the damage the sanctions do to Europe.” And so forth.

Putin says: “I’m here for you. Let’s work this out.”

Washington says: “Russia is the enemy.”

Putin knows that the UK is a complete vassal puppet state, that Cameron is just as bought-and-paid-for as Blair before him. Putin’s hope for diplomacy over force rests on Germany and France. Both countries face Europe’s budget and employment woes, and both countries have significant economic relations with Russia. German business interests are a counterweight to the weak Merkel government’s subservience to Washington. Washington has stupidly angered the French by trying to steal $10 billion from France’s largest bank. This theft, if successful, will destroy France’s largest bank and deliver France to Wall Street.

If desire for national sovereignty still exists in the German or French governments, one or both could give the middle finger to Washington and publicly declare that they are unwilling for their country to be drawn into conflict with Russia for the sake of Washington’s Empire and the financial hegemony of American banks.

Putin is betting on this outcome. If his bet is a bad one and Europe fails not only Russia but itself and the rest of the world by accommodating Washington’s drive for world hegemony, Russia and China will have to submit to Washington’s hegemony or be prepared for war.

As neither side can afford to lose the war, the war would be nuclear. As scientists have made clear, life on earth would cease, regardless of whether Washington’s ABM shield works.

This is why I oppose Washington’s policies and speak out against the arrogance and hubris that define Washington today. The most likely outcome of Washington’s pursuit of world hegemony is the extinction of life on earth.” PaulCraigRoberts.org

Lada’s 2 cents:

To the question: Can Putin’s Diplomacy Prevail Over Washington’s Coercion?

My answer is: YES, but it will be a long and difficult going. And, YES, I agree with Dr. Roberts – Putin and Russia need our help. Enough for Russia to always carry the burden of fighting the Western aggression alone!!! It happened too often in the past. This is for all of us and we must not sit idle! The alternative is the end of humanity, as I said in my previous article: Judgment and the Future of Humanity.

Is Putin correct in placing his future and that of his country on a bet that Russian diplomacy can prevail over Washington’s bribes, threats, blackmail, and coercion?

Putin is absolutely correct, but again, this will be a very tedious, risky and nerve-racking process. Washington’s games are disgusting and dangerous – their goal is to destroy not only Russia, but to damage as much of the world as possible. It is clear why. They know the US economy situation is dire. IF they can export at least some of their problems – something they’ve been doing successfully for decades, and if they can create crises in other countries, they can tell their own population: “See, it’s even worse somewhere else.” Besides, Europe’s predisposition to wars is well-known. So, if they succeed in starting a serious conflict in Europe, US and Canada stand to make billions upon billions, just like during WWI, WWII and the Cold War.

However, I predicted that Russia will resolve the geopolitical GROUND ZERO situation in Ukraine via “peaceful and quiet means” from the very beginning of the Ukraine crisis. See PREDICTIONS and my early Ukraine articles for more.

Yes, Putin and Russia will pull it off. But I want to stress again and again: they need everyone’s help! Everyone should share the truth with as many people as possible; tweet, FB, re-blog; write to your Congress/ Parliament (in Europe) representatives; write to newspapers and alternative media!

A word about Merkel, Hollande and EU: Merkel has completely lost my respect; most other EU leaders are useless US stooges. It was disgusting how Bulgaria’s president kissed McCain’s you-know-what during his recent visit, announcing afterwards that Bulgaria would withdraw from South Stream – the Russian gas pipeline, which can only be seen as a “lifeline” for Bulgaria. France’s Hollande isn’t much better. But US angered the French so much by their unreasonable economic demands and extortion, that Hollande can’t afford to behave openly as a “French poodle” to the US any more. If he does, he would be booted out of office in no time. The only voice of reason in France, and perhaps the only hope on the European continent, is Marine Le Pen, who won the Europarliament election, unseating Hollande’s party. By the way, I predicted this turn of events in the same 2012 article in which I predicted Sarkozy’s loss and Hollande’s win. Read here: 2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone.

I am preparing new articles about the geopolitics of the Russian gas pipelines, and about Marine Le Pen and other politicians. Coming soon!

 

Announcement: People in Russia, Ukraine and all over the world are now meticulously documenting all the crimes of the Kiev junta, ukro-nazi right sector and other fascist organizations, Ukraine media, oligarchs and politicians, the military, as well as all those who are helping them. These are documented via YT videos, photos, eyewitness accounts, articles, white papers and physical evidence. Work on the future international tribunal, which will try these criminals for crimes against humanity, has already begun. I do my part by telling the truth about Ukraine and translating into English the real voice of the people. Everyone’s welcome to participate.

Prediction: 2012 French Elections & Eurozone

Reblogged from source: LadaRayBlog

I am interrupting my GOLD TRAIN BLOG TOUR today for an update on my predictions for the French Presidential Elections, April 22 – May 6, 2012.

On January 12, 2012 I posted YEAR 2012 PREDICTIONS on this blog. Included were the “big three” elections for the so called Year of Elections, namely Russia, France and USA.

Read the original post: Year 2012 Predictions

The Russian Presidential Elections have already taken place on March 4.Vladimir Putin won the elections in the exact way and with the exact percentage of votes I predicted. But I’ll brag about that on another occasion ;)

After all, this post is all about French Elections.

As a reminder to my readers, I do not belong to any political party and consider myself a political atheist. My analysis is based on observation, logic, intuition and the Ancient Chinese System of Long Cycles (CSLC).

Nicolas Sarkozy

So, here’s what I said on January 12, 2012 regarding the incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his chances to win another term:

“France, Presidential Elections, April 22-May 6, 2012: French President Nicolas Sarkozy, together with Angela Merkel of Germany (whose re-election is not until 2013, and I’ll talk about her chances on another occasion) will do everything in their power to reassure the Europeans and the markets in 2012, and will pull a rabbit out of the hat, if necessary. Watch for various announcements from the Eurozone, directed at flooding the system with cheap money, more bailouts, etc.

However, the Eurozone crisis will deepen, with more countries teetering on the brink of collapse, and French elections will happen at the most inopportune time for Sarkozy.

Openly right wing and considered the only neo-con able to win the election, he’s deeply disliked in his country, and will lose.

Again, in case anyone’s wondering, Sarkozy’s Chinese Zodiac sign is the HORSE. Maybe, that’s why the long face. ;)

Just kidding, all you, fabulous Horses, out there! The Horse is a very cool and fortunate sign!”

I have also posted an update on March 3, the day before the Russian Elections, in which I updated my outlook for Putin’s chances, as well as Sarkozy’s outlook.

Here is what I said:

French elections, April 22 – May 6, 2012 – Nicolas Sarkozy.

U.S. State Department code name: Emperor Without Clothes.

At this time, no change in my prediction. He’ll still lose the election – more emphatically so!”

Read the 3/3/12 update: 2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections

So what’s happening in the French Presidential Elections? So far, it’s playing out exactly as I predicted. Nicolas Sarkozy only received 26.5 percent of votes in the first round and finished a humiliating second for an incumbent. SocialistFrancois Hollande received over 27.5 percent, and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen, the rising star of French politics, finished third with a surprise 18 percent!

Francois Hollande

In the second round Sarkozy and Hollande will be vying for the votes of the third and fourth finish candidates.

My updated prediction:

In a very funny twist, I am predicting that in the second round socialist Hollande (left) will take some of Marine Le Pen’s (far right) votes, along with the fourth place finisher votes (far left).

Seemingly, it doesn’t make any sense. But: The vote for Hollande is a vote against Sarkozy. This is a protest vote, pure and simple. Because, as I said in my January 2012 prediction: “[Sarkozy is] deeply disliked in his country and [that’s why he] will lose.” The French simply don’t want another five years with him.

In addition to Sarkozy’s ineffectual domestic policies and his foreign policy that is both too America-centered and too bellicose for the liking of the French electorate, there is also another reason. As mentioned before, the crisis in the EU continues to deepen and that spells disaster for the incumbent Euro leaders. So far, 9 governments have been ousted due to the European crisis, including Greek, Italian and Dutch. There are more to come. For Sarkozy, this spells the perfect storm.

CONCLUSION:

On May 6, Nicolas Sarkozy will lose the election (which, based on his reaction after the first round has been a surprise only to him, but no one else). The next President of France, breaking with the long standing French tradition of allowing a president 2 terms in the office, will be… Francois Hollande.

Most importantly, with the new man at the helm, the direction of French politics will undergo a certain change. There will be SOME change in the French attitude towards the EU and Eurozone. However, I wouldn’t expect TOO MUCH of a change at this time. Real change will come later, but predictions about that – in another post.

Some change to the emigration policy from the poor countries, which is a big problem in many European countries, as well as in Russia. The European countries will attempt to coordinate their emigration policies and certain border controls will be introduced very soon. But the emigration mess will take a very long time to sort out.

Perhaps most notably, with the new president France will change some of its foreign policy. For one, France will stop playing, forgive the expression, “The French poodle” to the US foreign policy, the role it’s been playing during Sarkozy’s neocon tenure. France will re-acquire its more independent stance on foreign affairs, which it used to enjoy under various other presidents since Charles De Gaulle. And hopefully, France’s policy will acquire a more peaceful flavor, as support for invasions and bombings of other countries wanes.

General Charles De Gaulle

In conclusion, I also want to mention that if Francois Hollande fails to fulfill these deep seated hopes of his electorate, the French people will likely vote him out of the office five years from now.

Marine Le Pen

In that case, Marine Le Pen, the rising star of the French politics, emphisizing pride in France, its roots and culture; anti-emigration and inti-war policies, is likely to win the following elections in 2017.

The next 2012 Predictions update is coming in May, after the French elections.

Stay tuned!

Lada Ray

Copyright 2012 Lada Ray

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