First ever East Russia International Economic Forum (Vostochny Economichesky Forum), aka, Eastern Economic Forum, is taking place in Vladivostok, Russia. Vladivostok is Russia’s port and international hub in the Far East, located very close to Japan.
During Soviet days Vladivostok was a closed city, where foreigners were not allowed. After the breakup of the USSR it became a hub for trade with Japan, sometimes illegal.
However, as Russia continues its historic pivot to the East (as I predicted since the beginning of 2014) more and more interest in free and legal country-to-country trade is developing. What a turn around from the Soviet days!
During the East Russia Economic Forum Putin announced that Vladivostok would become first Free Trade Port in the Far East, a development eagerly awaited by Japanese, Korean and Chinese business and investors. Putin also announced that following Vladivostok, other Russian Far Eastern ports will become Free Trade zones. He didn’t specify which ones, but I believe we are talking primarily Khabarovsk and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, but also probably Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Komsomolsk-na-Amure and a few others.
Why is this announcement being made now:
This proposal had been on the table for the Japanese investors for some years. Russians promoted it as a way to make peace with old Japanese claims for Kuril Islands and Sakhalin (the latter has been withdrawn, as far as I know). However, Japanese, due to the internal politics and American pressure were unwilling to move the issue along. The elegant solution of the free trade zones, while Russia keeps the political, administrative and military control over its strategically important islands is a very wise solution of the old dispute.
The free trade ports issue stalled until China and Russia were literally pushed towards a very close alliance after the blatant intervention of the US and West in Ukraine and after the anti-Russian sanctions. The multi-faceted Russia-China alliance is making new leaps forward, the latest being Putin’s trip to Beijing for the Chinese parade (I’ll have a separate post about that).
As the trade between Russia and China is making these giant leaps, Korean and Japanese investors have to scramble to catch on while they can. The alternative is losing the lucrative Russian market, which is now opening up. But this rare opportunity will only last until the market is taken.
Japanese interest in the East Russia Forum is overwhelming, same as Chinese, S. Korean, Singaporean, etc. The organizers said that they planned for 1000 participants, while they got over 5000 participation requests. The interest from Europeans is just as huge.
The systematic Russian pivot to the East is continuing. It is helped by the short-sighted and silly policies of the West (recall my many predictions!).
Japan, usually identified as part of the West, is seeing the writing on the wall and is trying to shift towards the East as well. Japanese businessmen declared during the forum their desire to keep politics and business separate.
Video: Vladimir Putin proposes to create free trade zones in Vladivostok and other Far East ports.
Владимир Путин предложил распространить режим свободного порта на гавани Дальнего Востока
Video: Putin guarantees complete support for investors in the Far East:
Putin: Rosneft will invest 1.3 trln rubles in the Far East projects:
Putin: The Far East is welcoming to anyone who is ready to cooperate:
Synchronicity in action:
As I was getting ready to publish this post, I received three tweets from my Japanese friend Akaida. Here they are:
@LadaTweets Even Japan going #BRICS? Sanctions could lead to Russia-Japan currency swaps https://www.rt.com/business/314193-japan-russia-swap-sanctions … hmm! 🙂
These are all positive signs, at least on the economic front. I spoke in my article Pro-US and Anti-Russian Japan: Eyewitness Overview and Predictions about Japanese business interests diverging from Japanese politics. Dependence on the US and habitual political confrontationism with the neighbors will continue putting the brake on Japan’s integration into the new model of development. I think US will keep its influence over Japan for another 5 or more years.
But cracks are showing, and they are showing on the business side. Japan, still being 2nd largest Asian economy and 3rd-4th largest global economy, plus possessing advanced technologies, is a very valuable business partner. Meanwhile, the ongoing weakening and collapse of the West is causing Japan to reconsider its tight economic alliance with the West. Japanese business has no choice but diversify in order to survive.
Japanese business is eager to set politics aside and set up alliances with the growing world and Asian powers, where the future development is, but old Japanese political allegiances are holding this process back.
This is my summary analysis of the most important features of the slow, ongoing shift of Japan’s position on global arena.
- It has to be remembered that while Japan has no global political power, serving basically the US Trojan Horse in the region, it is an economic powerhouse, which at one point was the engine of the global economy. Also, Japan’s regional political and military ambitions are on the rise. All this together means that when Japan switches allegiances, it will be a huge blow to the US empire.
- We should expect Japanese switch in conjunction with the EU switch, of which I briefly wrote in the above-linked article. This will be a slow and tedious process, to be sure.
- Because Japan has built walls of confrontation and animosity against so many countries in Asia, it is difficult for them to reintegrate. Many in Asia distrust Japan utterly, based on history and present policies.
- My prediction is that Japan will be able to re-integrate into Asia economically through the unifying factor of Russia. Generally, Russia will serve as the bridge and peacemaker for re-creating understanding and cooperation not only in Asia, but also in all of Eurasia, including Europe. The Middle East will take longer, but that will also happen eventually (not for a while, the wounds are too deep). Eventually, Russia’s role will be to re-establish the principles of cooperation and friendship on our entire planet.
- Fro the time being, we should have no illusions about Japan politically and militarily. The confrontational approach will persist for as long as Japan’s best buddy is USA. The new Japanese military doctrine for the first time since WWII allows Japanese troops to be deployed oversees. This, understandably, makes everyone in Asia jittery, as people still remember the destructiveness of the Japanese militarism in the past.
- There is a clear bifurcation (and rift?) forming between Japanese economic interests and its political direction. This will have to be resolved eventually. I give it 5-7 years. As USA empire weakens, Japan will gradually shift away from the West and closer to the East and Russia. Eventually, economic interests will prevail over politics. Japanese business must now scramble to catch up to China. Incidentally this applies to S. Korea and Singapore as well. If they don’t, in the shifting global economic landscape Japanese companies will start losing out to competitors, weakening the country’s economy.
- On some level, Japanese government understands this gloomy scenario. This is why they quietly allow their business to disregard politics. Make no mistake, there is clearly a secret understanding between Japanese big business and the ruling elites (some might say they are one and the same). This is why publicly there is support of the US-Japan alliance, and behind the scenes, economic integration with Russia and the BRICS.
- Incidentally, the same is happening with S. Korea, Singapore and other countries. In the next post I will have a telling story about the pressure applied by the US on S. Korea to prevent it escaping US clutches. Same kind of situation is applicable to Europe as well. Everyone sees the writing on the wall. But for the time being, US is still strong enough keep its ‘allies’ in its clutches.
Quantum Calibrations — Earth & Personal Shift — Earth Shift Predictions — Feng Shui
Pro-US and Anti-Russian Japan: Eyewitness Overview and Predictions (Striking parallels between Japan and Poland)
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS RE. JAPAN
Politically, I do not foresee any improvement between Russia and Japan at this time. Economically, there is a little bit of positive, mutually interested development.
The propaganda has very deeply penetrated Japanese society. The future of bilateral relations is murky and uncertain – that’s why Patricia is seeing a confusing picture: it is undecided and confusing; it’s one step forward, two steps sideways. Distrust by average Japanese towards Russia will continue, heated up by the US-supported MSM and political propaganda.
I have to say, average Russians also don’t feel so hot towards Japan. These are very old suspicions. Pity – there is so much both Russia and Japan could accomplish together and learn from each other! Attempts are being made by Russia, but all this goes nowhere. Russia and Japan still don’t have a signed peace treaty after WWII. Imagine that!
The way Japanese MSM and politicians present it, Russia is the biggest enemy, while it was actually their ‘official protector’ the US that dropped A-bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and still has bases on Japanese territory. In favor of creating the image of the arch-villain out of Russia they even forget their other eternal arch-enemy No. 1.5 – China. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so sad!
I am not advocating Japan becoming an enemy of the US – just the opposite. For Japan it’s crucial to make up with all neighbors, including Chinese, Vietnamese and Russians, while maintaining good relations with everyone else. The thing is, historically speaking Japan is considered the biggest bully and aggressor in Asia, where just about every country distrusts and has a grudge against them. This is why Japan doesn’t feel like an Eastern nation, preferring to side with the West. No one really accepts them in the East, and their own policies and uncompromising, arrogant attitudes towards neighbors only reinforce that alienation.
From this perspective, Japan is a perfect vibrational match to the USA. No wonder they are such good friends, despite all the latest frictions. Some of the friction is for show, while certain agreement on issues still exists. The rest is Japanese politicians playing off the populist nationalistic sentiment of their countrymen. Either way, Japanese politicians are hardly doing any favors for the long-term development of their country.
US will continue keeping Japan under tight control for at least another 5-7 years, or more (depends on economic interests and how soon Europe swings to Russian side). Russian – Japanese business will be developing a little, as it has, because it’s mutually beneficial. But nationalism will persist and authorities will continue playing anti-Russian and anti-Chinese cards to keep their power.
PM Abe is really inconsequential. It doesn’t matter who will come after him as they will act like twins. This is the time for ANY PM who is nationalistic; yells about returning the Kuril Islands (um… excuse me, ‘northern territories’) – which, by the way, will never happen; escalates military spending, while behind the scenes takes orders from bosses across the ocean, etc.
Kuril Islands and Sakhalin were Russian territories before the 20th century, and they became part of Japan after Russia lost Russo-Japanese war in 1904. As a result of WWII, Russia got the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin back as part of Japanese reparations after Japan lost on the side of Hitler.
It is important to understand one crucial thing about Japanese politicians. It is imperative for them to scream about Kuril Islands and Russia as aggressor in order to divert attention from the true problems inside the country. And these are: 1. the de-facto occupation by the US, complete with US naval bases; 2. Fukushima consequences; 3. economic situation and debt problem; 4. unresolved historic issues, including Hiroshima; 5. social dissatisfaction of a very closed-up society.
Of course Japanese MSM, like MSM almost everywhere in the world, is under the US thumb.
Former Japanese PM Hatoyama is known for his recent surprise visit to Crimea, which he accomplished despite the heat such visit drew in Japan. He is a surprisingly decent and brave guy for a Japanese politician, but he has no chance right now. Maybe in a few years. Being thought of as associated with Russia in any way (even though there is really no association) only hurts his chances of being heard. Pity, but this is the reality.
Still, what Hatoyama has done wasn’t only brave, but also was necessary to shutter the so-called “unified Western front” in relation to Crimea. Actually, his very courageous feat caused a European shift. Since then, a French parliamentary delegation has visited Crimea, and I believe a German Bundestag delegation is next.
Striking parallels between Japan and Poland you would never imagine existed!
In some ways, Japan as far as its political composition and views go, reminds me of Poland. But I think even in Poland there are more people who see the world situation with clearer eyes. This is because more Poles speak Russian and still remember the old days when Russia/USSR did absolutely everything to extend the hand of friendship to Poland, forgetting the old grudges.
You all know my view on this: perhaps the USSR and Russia have overdone the forgiveness thing. Not only the USSR liberated Poland in 1945 at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives, but Stalin also made sure Poland received a huge chunk of German territory after WWII, as part of German reparations. USSR also saw to it that Polish economy did well, investing resources and money USSR should have kept for its own after-the-war reconstruction and development.
Meanwhile before the war, Poland under its virtual dictator Pilsudski had been a pretty vicious aggressor. Using Hitler’s aggression as a distraction, Poland tried to bite off pieces of Czechoslovakia, Austria, and any country they could get their hands on. This was Polish attitude historically, including attempts to invade Russia to replace Russian tsars with usurpers. Not to mention that since 18-19th century Poland was consistently engaged in molding Malorussia, aka, Malorossia (known today as Ukraine) into anti-Russia.
The USSR, preferring to sweep the truth under the rug, caused Poland to feel they didn’t have to pay the price for past misdeeds, encouraging in turn more arrogance, playing victim, and bolder aggression, which we are observing today.
As we know, Japan did pay a dear price in the form of territories, lives and humiliation, for the WWII and pre-war aggression, as did Germany. In that, Japan and Poland are very different.
Poland and Japan are also very different in terms of culture.
Finally, Japan is a much more economically developed country, with infinitely larger economy, which once was the engine of global growth, and substantially higher standard of living than Poland. (But both countries are very similar in a sense of embracing the Western lifestyle and capitalist economic principles based on US ‘advice’ – Japan after WWII and Poland after the breakup of the USSR – and paying for their capitalist development by raking in insurmountable level of debt, which is now coming back to haunt them.)
Yet, both Poland and Japan, being so different in just about every sense, are:
- Thoroughly and willingly under the US thumb;
- Have a lot of historic distrust relative to ALL neighbors;
- This causes them to rely on alliance with the US against closest neighbors, US being the only country their selective memory forgives for any wrongdoing;
- Both countries have substantial territorial disputes with more than one neighbor;
- MSM/politicians in both are engaged in pretty vicious anti-Russian propaganda, while being supported by the US, and in fact, serving as US Trojan Horses in their respective regions;
- Additional very strong countries in their vicinity, which they regard with jealousy and extreme distrust: Germany for Poland and China for Japan;
- Both countries secretly dream about restoring their failed empires.
I can tell you with absolute confidence – this is a way to nowhere.
Economy will eventually cause both countries to reconsider and back off. But before that happens, both Japan and Poland – so easily manipulated due to their ulterior motives, such as nationalism and imperial ambitions – will cause a lot of trouble for Russia, Eurasia and for themselves.
My QUANTUM CALIBRATIONS will give you an additional layer of clarity!
Japan as a whole country presently calibrates at: 150 – anger; Chi: 180 – pride
Tokyo as a whole city calibrates at: 180 – pride; Chi 189 – pride.
Fukushima situation in reality calibrates at: 110 – fear; Chi 85 – grief — in other words, real disaster; although it’s better than a couple of years ago.
Real state of Japanese economy calibrates at: 95 – grief. See, THIS is the truth – this is what they are really trying to hide by yelling about Russia as enemy No. 1! Japanese economy isn’t doing so hot.
Real state of Japanese-Russian relations: 150 – anger
State of China-Japan relations: 85 – grief
Real state of Japanese-US relations: 198 – yearning/striving. Isn’t that interesting! What are they striving and yearning for? To be accepted by the US as equals? Or they are desperately trying to keep the front, while the deep-seated cracks start appearing?
Read all posts in this series: Ask Lada