Remember I said that the more US tries to surround Russia with bases, hostile regimes and provocations, the more it will create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Russia would simply be forced to respond.
As the Russian saying goes, ‘Russians saddle slowly but ride fast.’ NOT a good idea to test Russia, you know. It never ends well for the aggressor.
I told you recently about the renewed Russian interest in Cuba. And this is Russia-Venezuela joint drills.
Pompeo is livid.
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Stunning Turnaround! Donetsk Announces Mariupol and Debaltsevo Offensives, Refuses Poroshenko’s Fake Truce
The Head of DNR (Donetsk People’s Republic) Alexander Zakharchenko has officially announced that the DNR army started a major offensive on the important port and key city of Mariupol. Some other stunning announcements were made, signalling a major turnaround!
First, there was the terrorist act in Volnovakha, Donetsk region, as a result of which at least 15 people died and 20 were wounded. Then, on January 22, 2015, Ukraine’s subversive terrorist group blew up a trolleybus on a crowded Donetsk city stop, killing 8 and injuring scores of people.
How did a Ukrainian subversive group got into Donetsk? Based on Minsk accords, Ukraine and DNR regularly exchanged prisoners. There were many complaints of Ukraine swindling Donbass by kidnapping various homeless people and random private citizens in cities far away from DNR and LNR, and than exchanging them for ukro-nazis or Kiev military. Feeling sorry for the poor prisoners, the Donbass people accepted everyone, until in December they discovered that 7 out of 200+ prisoners being exchanged were actually ukro-nazi subversive terrorists, sent to infiltrate Donetsk. These seven were arrested. However, as it turned out later, the entire group numbered 16. The remnant of that group executed the Donetsk bus stop terror act.
In the beginning of January the Kiev junta president Poroshenko cancelled the scheduled Minsk peace working group meeting. On January 15, he also cancelled the Astana summit/peace conference, signaling that he didn’t want any peace negotiations. Since his trip to Paris, for the “Unity March,” Poroshenko declared mass mobilization and revived the brutal bombings of Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as other towns and villages in DNR and LNR. Daily, dozens of peaceful citizens die, and houses, apartment blocks, factories, mines, water mains, power stations, gas pipelines, hospitals, museums, and schools are being destroyed.
Meanwhile in Kiev, Poroshenko, Nalivaichenko, Avakov, Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and their cronies, resolved to restart a massive offensive on Donetsk and Lugansk, trying to retake the crucial Donetsk airport and other key points in both republics. Their other big goal was to cut off Donetsk from Lugansk completely.
However, the result was the opposite of what they expected. DNR and LNR (Lugansk People’s Republic) self-defence managed to quickly defeat the Ukraine army on all directions, despite the Kiev army outnumbering them 10 to 1. They retook Donetsk airport, several key blockposts and several villages and towns.
I have discussed what is happening in Ukraine in detail in my latest post: False Flag Alert; Kiev Regime Needs War to Survive; Ukrainians Refuse to Fight; Foreign Mercenaries and NATO Weapons.
Also read related:
Immediately after losing on all fronts, Poroshenko announced that he wanted to restart the peace process. Pretty much all analysts predicted Poroshenko would remember peace negotiations as soon his army started losing.
A week or two ago, the Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, was fully committed to continuing the peace process, despite being criticized by many that he wasn’t being tough enough. Zakharchenko judged that if he could save the lives of more citizens, even a bad peace was worth it. However, the latest events proved that the truce was used by Ukraine to accumulate forces, both military and subversive, in order to kill more citizens. See the interview with Zakharchenko and Ukraine prisoners of war in the Kiev Regime Needs War to Survive article link above.
After the Donetsk terror act, Zakharchenko did a sharp turn-around. His new position, much tougher than before, is that DNR will consider no truce with Ukraine; DNR will enter no peace negotiations until after Ukraine vacates the entire territory of former Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts – now parts of DNR and LNR, under Ukraine occupation.
Here is Zakharchenko’s talk with students at the Donetsk University, in which he discusses some of that. Link. It’s a talk in which Zakharchenko, historian by trade, has shown his different side – that of a teacher. I will talk more about some interesting things he hinted on in the upcoming Earth Shift Report: The Grand Experiment Novorossia.
Also see this video – commemoration of the victims of the Donetsk bus stop bombing: В Донецке прошел траурный митинг по погибшим в результате обстрела остановки. Small boy’s sign says: “I am not a separatist, I am Misha.” Man’s sign: “I survived despite…” Also: “I am not Charlie, I am Donbass.”
I noticed that the timing of my predictions started accelerating dramatically since the end of 2014. I said in False Flag Alert; Kiev Regime Needs War to Survive; Ukrainians Refuse to Fight; Foreign Mercenaries and NATO Weapons that DNR may advance on Mariupol, Gorlovka and Slavyansk if Ukraine keeps provoking them – and here it is!
It is clear from some other announcements by Zakharchenko, made in an uncharacteristically somber tone, sweat on his brow, that he tried to work with Kiev, but that he is done with that. The conclusion being made is that there is no possibility of going back to any negotiations with the Kiev regime until DNR and LNR win this war, restore their territorial integrity, and prevail fully over the Kiev nazi junta. Only when DNR and LNR are strong enough must they negotiate.
Another possibility I see: under pressure from all directions, the Kiev regime may simply implode like a soap-bubble, as people in different parts of former Ukraine retake power. Of course, this would be a much preferred outcome. DNR now has a great chance to help themselves and everyone else.
Therefore, for the first time ever, Zakharchenko has announced a major offensive operation: the DNR army advancement on Mariupol. I previously spoke about the importance of Mariupol. It is the second largest city in Donetsk region with 400,000 population. It is also a major port on Azov Sea, connecting to the Black Sea, which would give DNR access to major international sea routes and transportation.
From thereon, it’s not far to Kherson, which connects directly to Crimea. As we know, Crimea is now cut off by land from Russia. Connecting to Mariupol and then Kherson will give land connection to Crimea to both Donbass and Russia. If I were the Novorossia geopolitical consultant (which I am not), taking Mariupol first and foremost would have been my advice.
The containment factor for DNR was that they refused to shell any of their cities, thus potentially endangering their citizens’ lives. This humanitarian restraint was what Kiev counted on since they occupied Mariupol, Slavyansk, and other areas of DNR and LNR. Back in May 2014, many unarmed citizens of Mariupol tried to prevent Kiev tanks from getting into the city, resulting in a horrible massacre on par with May 2, 2014 Odessa massacre. Many local citizens were killed, wounded and kidnapped.
It is a terrible choice: to bomb or not to bomb. But I am afraid DNR can’t get around taking over Mariupol, and – sadly – Kiev will do everything to make this as bloody as possible, out of spite and vengeance, and so later to blame any losses on DNR. Looks like they have already started doing that.
In the final analysis, the cancer of the ukro-nazi Kiev junta has already gone too far and is metastasizing into all parts of the dying patient’s body. There is no way to cut that cancer out without a major intervention. DNR must do it. Trying to minimize losses is also a tall order, but it needs to be done.
Zakharchenko’s announcement: Александр Захарченко заявил о начале наступления на Мариуполь. While commemorating the victims of the Donetsk bus bombing, he announced that DNR started advancement on Mariupol.
Zakharchenko also announced that the 1/24/15 bombing of Mariupol is a provocation of the Kiev regime. Self-defence, he said, has no artillery in that area.
Zakharchenko dropped another bomb: he said that the Debaltsevo cauldron (Rus: “kotel”), where by some reports are surrounded 8,000 Ukraine military, will be closed in 2 days. The Debaltsevo cauldron wasn’t advertised and sort of sneaked up on everyone. But it’s a major joint operation by LNR and DNR armies, which is the result of an opportunity stemming from gross incompetence and sabotage in the Ukraine army. Ukraine army’s goal was to cut off DNR from LNR, but another major defeat was the result. More in: False Flag Alert; Kiev Regime Needs War to Survive; Ukrainians Refuse to Fight; Foreign Mercenaries and NATO Weapons.
Map of current military operations in Novorossia
The Debaltsevo cauldron is in-between two red arrows (with tanks) north of Donetsk in the center of the map; Lugansk is in the upper right corner; Mariupol is at the bottom left of the map on the Asov Sea shore (next to black tank).
DNR and LNR have also announced that they are stopping prisoner exchanges due to the fact that among prisoners Kiev tries to sneak in their subversive terror groups.
My prediction: when the Debaltsevo ring is closed, this will effectively mean the beginning of the end of Ukraine junta’s army. As I said in my above-referenced article, people already hide and run away from ‘mogilization.’ Once another 8,000 troops get taken prisoner or worse, the entire army is likely to rebel.
Another prediction: once DNR takes Mariupol, it will be the beginning of the end of the Kiev junta as a whole. That’s why they are hanging on to it for dear life. Remember the documentaries and movies showing a hasty and humiliating evacuation of Americans from Vietnam after they lost the Vietnam War? Expect something similar in Kiev, once Ukraine implodes.
That said, don’t hope that US and Kiev junta will just give up. They won’t make it easy. First, they’ll continue bombings and attempts to blame their own atrocities on Novorossia. Also, as I said before, a major false flag in Ukraine is a very clear and present danger. If you thought MH17 was a shocker – rest assured they are planning something much bigger. For details refer to my above-referenced article.
There are many forces in the world that are working tirelessly to prevent some of the most outrageous false flags planned. There is hope that the worst nuclear disaster may be prevented. But we aren’t out of the woods by any measure.
And of course, US will keep trying to undermine Russian economy, economies of other Eurasian Union members, as well as bribing, threatening and intimidating anyone and everyone around the world who even slightly diverges from their viewpoint.
We are going through a tectonic shift of staggering proportions, and Ukraine, as the ground zero if this tectonic shift, as that fault line between the old and the new I mentioned in my previous piece, is the epicenter of the biggest battle.
This is the case of: just grit your teeth and get through it. There is light in the end of this tunnel.
On the note of manipulating, bribing and intimidating. The present attempts by Obama to bribe Cuba by lifting the 50-year-old sanctions, and especially Iran, by releasing $12bln in frozen Iranian funds (which US themselves usurped previously), plus ‘allowing’ Iran to have its own nuclear program, something US fought tooth and nail just recently, won’t go anywhere. These actions of Obama are an attempt to get back at Russia for the many defeats US suffered in 2013 and 2014. They demonstrate extreme desperation and the fact that US is grasping at straws. In fact, US is losing its grip not only on its adversaries, but also on its allies.
ADDED! Related: latest from Mariupol – as should have been expected!
(NEW thoughts and links added)
The most important events and noteworthy interviews of the past few days, accompanied with my thoughts and comments.
This event doesn’t need introduction – Russian President Vladimir Putin has conducted his 10th traditional annual live Q&A. As I stress every year it happens, I’d like to see any Western leader to pull a 4 hour live event, with un-anticipated questions directed at you. I can tell you with absolute confidence – none of them is capable of anything even remotely close. As it stands, ALL Western heads of state are terrified of direct and unsensored communication with their citizens and global public opinion. Just picture what would happen IF Obama, or Merkel, or…. fill in the blank – attempted this kind of feat. Would the whole world finally see that ‘the king is naked?’ You decide.
Breaking news: US president Obama announced that he was lifting some of the 50-year-old sanctions against Cuba, using his executive powers – only Congress can lift embargo completely. An exchange of prisoners has taken place, certain business and travel restrictions to Cuba are expected to be lifted. Obama announced that it’s time to normalize relations between the two countries. The Miami anti-Cuban lobby is up in arms.
Various analysts have been speculating why this is happening now. Some think it’s a sign of the USA’s weakness, others believe it is to tear Cuba away from Venezuela’s influence, and to impede Cuba’s relationship development with Russia and China.
As you know, I have been to Cuba years ago, when embargo was in full swing. You can find 2 interviews on the INTERVIEWS page, where I talk about some of my Cuban experiences. I also wrote about Cuba in: New Predictions! Putin Goes to Latin America: US Creates Wars – Russia Extends a Hand of Cooperation.
The US government must have read this last article of mine and felt ashamed of its behavior. No, not really…
But in all seriousness, here is why a sudden warming towards Cuba. In my view, it’s both weakness and cunning at the same time.
Why it is weakness: US is conducting an unprecedented and unheard off previously in scale attack on Russia (economic, monetary, political and proxy-military via third parties). More on that in Paul Craig Roberts interview.
Meanwhile, US also has to juggle other countries such as China, Turkey and India, which are slowly distancing themselves from the US. Venezuela is next on the list of US sanctions. Latin America is very anti-American and leaning more and more left, including even Mexico, the long-term US vassal. Russia recently had a very productive set of agreements signed with Turkey (Russian gas, building new pipeline, building a number of nuclear power stations). Putin just returned from India, also with nearly $100bln worth of trade agreements. I wrote many times this past year about massive agreements with China. More and more large economies are transitioning to bilateral trade outside of the dollar.
Power is slipping away from the US.
In this situation, Cuba is one front too many on which to fight. If US makes up with Cuba, they are hoping they can pull Cuba into their sphere of influence, or at least neutralize Cuba by seducing those poor people with flashy nothings. This is where the cunning part comes in.
Why it’s cunning: Russia, which is being surrounded by NATO/US military bases that are encroaching on Russia’s borders, is considering establishing a navy base in Cuba. China also signed a number of trade and economic agreements with this ‘imprisoned island’ as Kennedy would say (my only question is: imprisoned by whom?). Anti-US Venezuela presently is the biggest supporter and donor of the Cuban economy. The situation is dicey for the US. Cuba is located too close to US shores for comfort.
Russia and Turkey have agreed on a large number of economic and political agreements, which are bound to get them closer to each other (in perspective, SCO membership for Turkey, which also gets them closer to China). Turkey, having been slighted by the EU’s long-term refusal to admit it into the union, has been looking more and more East. Turkey has also been a reluctant participant in NATO. US has been putting enormous pressure on Turkey and president Erdogan to act in the interests of the US and NATO in the region.
For example, I have no doubt that recent color revolution attempt in Turkey (timed right before 2014 presidential elections) was US organized in order to attempt unseating, or at least to scare Erdogan. The result was the opposite – the moment Erdogan was re-elected, he started the process of getting closer to Russia. Looks like Erdogan also had no doubt who was behind the almost color revolution. It appears Turkey is looking for ways to weaken its dependence, and eventually to leave NATO. As I said on different occasions in similar situations – such exodus will only be possible when US weakens sufficiently.
The reason I talk about Turkey when I should be talking about Cuba is geopolitics, plain and simple. Look at the map. In terms of geopolitical position and value, Turkey is to Russia what Cuba is to the US.
Many of my readers know that I grew up in Odessa, USSR. Odessa is located right across from Turkey, on the Black Sea coast. Since I was a child I heard about captured NATO spies attempting to cross into Russia underwater from the Turkish side. The beautiful beaches in Odessa were dotted with border patrol watch towers. It was always expected that some kind of US/NATO threat would come from the other side of the Black Sea, which was full of NATO bases.
As some readers may remember (this was a little before my time, but I heard enough stories), in 1962 the US/NATO placed nuclear missiles in Turkey, targeting USSR, and specifically the city I was to grow up in – Odessa. Khrushchev and USSR responded by saying they were placing missiles in Cuba, which is known as the Cuban Missile Crisis. Of course, the US history books and MSM lie by twisting the events in such a way as to make it seem it was Khrushchev who initiated the missile crisis. However, every serious historian, in the US as well, will know it was the other way around.
Of course, the Cuban Missile Crisis was extinguished as soon as US removed its nuclear missiles from Turkey. Consequently, USSR cancelled the quid pro quo deployment of its missiles to Cuba. American MSM and history books will make you believe it was a great victory of the US government and an achievement due to Kennedy’s/USA’s tough stance on Russia. From that twisted propaganda point of view, the contemporary US politicians make an equally twisted conclusion that US must continue being tough on Russia. As an example, see the new anti-Russian US Congress resolution allowing Obama to tighten sanctions against Russia.
Just look at this brilliant logic! While Obama admits that sanctions didn’t work on Cuba, doing more harm than good – at the same time, miraculously, these same sanctions will somehow work on Russia!
I have a better solution for the US: 1. stop bullying the entire world; 2. lose your superiority complex, which in fact is severe inferiority complex – and conflicts you create globally will start dissipating all by themselves.
Now you know why I was talking about Turkey. Cuba and Turkey are interconnected geopolitically. In 2014, as US/NATO/EU were concentrating on the destruction of Ukraine, Putin/Russia were shoring up allies in Latin America, China, Central Asia and Turkey. Another hidden victory of Putin is Azerbaijan. Putin brokered a new truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan, averting bloodshed in the disputed Nagorny Karabakh and potential color revolution in Armenia. Azerbaijan is a big factor for Turkey’s swing towards Russia. Basically, very quietly, US just lost influence over Azerbaijani oil and gas, and at least began losing Turkey.
Now that Turkey is leaning towards Russia and China, US is attempting to rebalance the situation by tempting Cuba to join the US sphere of influence. Wouldn’t that be ironic? I personally don’t think it will go anywhere. I know Cubans; I also know Russians, Venezuelans and Chinese. I know Americans too – perhaps even better.
That said, we are entering an era of very complex, multi-move geopolitical chess matches. The small, poor and in-between countries, the ‘swing vote’ so to speak, is where a lot of geopolitical games will be concentrating. Every player will try to get them on their side. Such countries can benefit tremendously in the global repositioning of power – if they are smart.
This kind of global geopolitical situation is a sure sign of the collapse of the old US-dominated uni-polar world. US empire is weakening, albeit slowly.
My assessment: I think US started using smarter advisors compared to those they used for the Kiev coup and Ukraine. But not smart enough.
It will be great if embargo is lifted and Cuba can start breathing easier! That said, Cubans, I hope you don’t forget who you are and I hope you remember you aren’t for sale!